Division of Research Graduate School of Business Administration The University of Michigan FORECASTING SHIFTS IN THE WORLD TRADE OF CHEMICALS by Ruediger Mueller October, 1980 Working Paper #238 FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY None of this material reproduced without the of the Division is to be quoted or express permission of Research. The author wishes to thank Exxon Chemical Company U.S.A. for funding and support of this research.

INTRODUCTION Is it possible to develop a model which reliably predicts commodity imports and exports of a country? This question will be examined with respect to the world trade of chemicals. After an analysis of the chemical trade flows among groups of nations at different stages of economic development an attempt is made to model the flow of specific groups of chemicals an a country by country basis. Scope and Limitations of Study The commodity of interest was chemicals, as defined by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC)1 group five. The first part of the project examined the trade flows of chemicals between market economies (ME's) and their subgroups, developed market economies (DdME's) and developing market economies (DgME's). This part was limited to market economies only because of the difficulty of obtaining trade information for nonmarket economies; furthermore, it examined only the aggregate trade flows of all chemicals. No attempt was made to examine subgroups of chemicals in this part of the project. Trade flows were examined in terms of both current and absolute dollars in order, to isolate the influence of inflation in the share and distribution of chemical trade flows. The time horizon under observation was the years 1960 to 1976; more recent information could not be obtained from the available secondary sources. The second part of the project attempted to develop models to predict a country's imports and exports of subgroups of chemicals on the basis of the economic variables of this country. One model was developed for imports and 1"Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification, Revised," Statistical Papers Series M, Vol. 1, No. 38 (New York: United Nations, 1963).

-2 -exports of each of the sixteen subgroups of chemicals listed in Table 1. These groups of chemicals were the dependent variables in cross-sectional regression analyses in which countries constituted the cases. The twelve economic and demographic variables listed in Table 2 were selected as candidate predictor variables. In addition, interaction between some variables was suspected, and therefore four interaction terms were included. They are listed in Table 3. The predictor variables were lagged two years in order to increase the practical relevance of the models. A two-year lag was chosen because only predictors lagged two years or more would be available in time to use the model before the year for which the prediction is made. Lack of more current information for some variables made it necessary to use 1975 data for the dependent and 1973 data for the independent variables. Analysis was performed using the stepwise regression routine, with the option of backward regression, of the MIDAS statistical package of The University of Michigan. Minimum acceptable significance levels for all variables were selected.05 for the F-test and.10 for the t-test. Data Time and resource constraints made it necessary to use data from available secondary sources. All data about trade of chemicals, the time series of the first part of the project, and the information about exports and imports of countries by 3-digit SITC code were obtained from the Yearbook of International Trade Statistics,2 published by the U.N. The predictor variables (GNP per 2Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. I and II, New York: United Nations, 1978).

-3 -capita, gross domestic investment, percentage of gross domestic product [GDP] generated in manufacturing and services, energy consumption, value added per worker, and total labor force) were obtained from World Tables,3 a World Bank publication. GDP (absolute and per capita) and national income (absolute and per capita) were obtained from the Statistical Yearbook,4 a U.N. publication. Finally, the population data were obtained from the Demographic Yearbook,5 also a U.N. publication. For the cross sectional study the sample included all of the countries (usually forty) for which imports and exports on a 3-digit SITC level were listed in volume 2 of the Yearbook of International Trade Statistics;6 but because of incomplete data for some of the countries, the actual used sample size ranged from about twenty-five to thirty-six cases. It should be kept in mind that these samples are by no means random samples and therefore could be biased; however, time and resource constraints, as well as lack of data (especially for less developed countries), prohibited either the use of proper random sampling procedures or a census of all countries. More recent and complete data can be obtained from the U.N., World Bank, and OECD for a fee. Hypotheses It was expected that chemicals as a group did not change their share of international trade and that developed or developing countries neither 3World Tables 1976 (Washington, D.C.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank, 1976. 4Statistical Yearbook (New York: United Nations, 1979 and earlier years). 5Demographic Yearbook (New York: United Nations, 1979 and earlier years). 6Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. 1 and 2 (New York: United Nations, 1978).

-4 -improved nor worsened their position as sources or receivers in the overall trade of chemicals between market economies. Hi: Chemicals retained a constant share of all trade between market economies and between developed and developing market economies between 1960 and 1976, regardless of whether trade is measured in constant or current dollars. H2: The percentage distribution of chemical trade flows between market economies and between developed and developing market economies remained constant between 1960 and 1976, regardless of whether this distribution is based on constant or current dollars. In the next part of the project, exports and imports of 3-digit SITC subgroups of chemicals were examined on a country-by-country basis. It was expected that a country's exports and imports of chemicals could be predicted by the economic variables listed in Tables 2 and 3 and the lagged dependent variable. H3: The variability of a country's imports and exports of subgroups of chemicals on a 3-digit SITC level can be explained with better than 90 percent confidence by this country's economic and demographic variables (listed in Tables 2 and 3) and the lagged dependent variable. Results Magnitude and Direction of All Trade of Chemicals The first analysis examined the constancy of the share of chemicals in all trade flows between market economies. The time series analyses and the results of the trend line analyses are shown in Tables 4 and 5, and the time series are plotted in Figures 1 and 2. Table 4 and Figure 1 are based on current dollars, while Table 5 and Figure 2 are based on constant dollars (1970 = 100). On the basis of current dollars, only the change over time in trade

-5 -flows from ME's to DgME's and from DdME's to DgME's are not significantly different from zero; all other shares are significant at better than the.05 level. On the basis of constant dollars, only the slope of the trade flow from DdME's to DgME's is not significant at the.05 level (but is significant at the.10 level); all other slopes are significant at better than the.05 level. This means that the hypothesis of no change over the sixteen years under observation can be accepted only for trade flows from ME's and DdME's to DgIE's if the analysis is based on current dollars. In all other cases Hi has to be rejected. Looking at the slope coefficients, though, it becomes clear that the change over time was very slight. On the basis of current dollars, the strongest average yearly change occurred for trade flows from DdME's to DdME's, but amounted to only 0.14075% percent. A comparison of the slopes of the time series based on constant and current dollars shows constantly steeper average yearly increases if the analysis is based on constant dollars; but in this case the strongest average increase amounts to only 0.22689 percent per year for the trade flow from DgME's to DgME's. This leads to the.conclusion that, for the time span under observation, trade of chemicals suffered slightly less from inflation than did all trade between market economies. The next step was the analysis of changes in distribution of all chemical trade among ME's, DdME's, and DgME's. The time series and results are shown in Tables 6 and 7 and the time series are plotted in Figures 3 and 4. Table 6 and Figure 3 are based on current dollars and Table 7 and Figure 4 on constant dollars. As could be expected, DdME's are the major participants in world trade of chemicals. When the analysis was based on current dollars, the only cases in which changes over time were not significantly different from zero where those of DgME's exports to DdME's and DgME's. When the analysis was based on constant dollars, only changes in exports from ME's to DgME's were

-6 -not significantly different from zero. For all other time series, changes were significant at better than the.05 level. Therefore H2 has to be rejected in all cases except those specified above. In Tables 6 and 7, columns 1/2, 3/4, 5/6, and 7/8 have to sum to 100 for every year. Therefore, the slope coefficient of one column of each pair has to be positive while the other one has to be negative by exactly the same amount. In neither Table 6 nor Table 7 do the slopes of each pair have exactly the same absolute value; differences tend to be larger in Table 7 than in Table 6. This is because of errors in recording international trade which occur frequently, especially in developing countries. In Table 7, another source of error is the price index used to arrive at constant dollar terms. Because of problems in obtaining complete and correct information, price indices for international trade are at best close approximations. Cross-Sectional Study of Imports and Exports of Subgroups of Chemicals by Country Part two of the project was concerned with the exports and imports of subgroups of chemicals by country. The groups of chemicals of interest and the variables chosen as candidate predictor variables were already introduced above (Tables 1 to 3). The analysis will be explained, for the example of imports of organic chemicals (SITC 512); the results for the other groups will then be summarized. Complete data for the analysis of imports of organic chemicals could be obtained for N = thirty-four countries. Stepwise regression identified four highly significant models with high explanatory power. Model 1 This model results from a stepwise regression analysis in which all vari ables listed in Tables 2 and 3 in their original and logarithmic forms were

-7 - candidate predictors. Out of these, twenty variables were retained, some in their original and logarithmic forms, pointing to higher order nonlinear relationships. This model is shown in Table 8. Model 2 This model differs from model I only in that, in addition to the variables in model 1, the dependent variable lagged by two years was included in its original and logarithmic forms. This model retained twenty-two variables, among them the lagged dependent variable in both forms. The model is shown in Table 9. Model 3 Given a total of only thirty-four valid cases, the number of retained variables in models 1 and 2 is very large. However, it was expected that a model including variables only in their original form would not lose much explanatory power. Model 3 includes all variables from Tables 2 and 3 as candidate predictor variables. A look at Table 10 confirms that, despite the fact that model 3 retains only eleven predictor variables (as compared with twenty and twenty-two in models 1 and 2, respectively), the loss of explanatory power is very slight. Model 4 This model differs from model 3 only in, that the dependent variable lagged by two years was included as a candidate predictor. This change, as can be seen in Table 11, not only increased the explanatory power of model 4 vis-a-vis model 3, but also reduced the number of predictor variables to only five.

-8 - Model Selection The choice among the models listed above has to be model 4. Not only does this model have the second lowest standard error (36,620), but it also has the lowest number of predictor variables, all of which are intuitively appealing. Even the negative coefficients of variables 4 (GDP) and 17 (value added per worker x total labor force) make sense intuitively. High GDP and value added could indicate higher and more capital-intensive domestic production, thus implying a reduced need to import such capital-intensive goods as chemicals. Some variables have coefficients which differ in sign across the four models, pointing to a high degree of multicollinearity and possible interaction among variables. All variables of model 4 show consistency in the sign of their coefficients in all models where they are included. The large number of variables, as well as coefficients which are not always intuitively appealing, make models 1 and 2 least appealing among the four models. In the same way, imports and exports of all subgroups of chemicals under observation were analyzed. Tables 12 and 13 show the results obtained by stepwise regression for imports and exports, respectively. The dependent variable lagged by two years was included as a candidate predictor variable, but logarithmic terms were excluded. Table 12 shows that more than 90 percent of the variability in a country's imports of chemicals for all groups except 561 and 571 could be accounted for. The import model of group 571 proved to be the only model which did not include the lagged dependent variable as predictor variable and for which H3 did not hold. In the case of group 561, the model in Table 12 also accounted for less than 90 percent of the variation in imports; however, as can be seen in Table 14, an analysis which did not include the lagged dependent variable as candidate predictor performed slightly better and accounted for more than 90 percent of the variation in imports of this

-9 -group of chemicals. This case was also the only one in which the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable as predictor did not produce the best model. Table 13 shows that in all cases, more than 90 percent of the variability in a country's exports of chemicals could be accounted for; in all but two cases, the figure was better than 99 percent. A comparison of Tables 12 and 13 shows that in all cases except that of group 513, more variability in exports than in imports can be accounted for. Comparisons of Tables 12 with 14 and 13 with 15, respectively, show that the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable is in general more important for the export than for the import models. The models of exports and imports differ widely, with respect to both the variables they include and the magnitude and signs of their coefficients. This was expected because of the heterogeneity of the subgroups of chemicals. Some groups, like 561 (fertilizers), will be more important to the trade of less industrialized countries, while others, like 581 (plastic materials), will be more important to the trade of industrialized countries. The models for these groups will thus require either different economic indicators as predictors, or different coefficients for the same indicators. Summary The major purpose of this article is the development of models predicting the exports and imports of chemicals by country. The question to be answered was: Is it possible to account for a large part of the variability of a country's exports or imports of chemicals with easily accessible economic and demographic indicators and the lagged dependent variable? On the basis of this study, this question has to be answered with yes. In all but one case it was possible to develop a model accounting for more than 90 percent of a country's exports or imports. The project suffered considerably from lack of

-10 -data; out of a potential sample of 106 cases, only 25 to 36 could be used in any analysis because of missing data. One possibility for future research would be to repeat the study with a larger, more complete database in order to verify the results of this exploratory project. Another possibility would be to repeat this study for other groups of commodities, in order to determine whether similar results can be obtained for commodities other than chemicals.

-11 - References 1) Business Week, January 14, 1980, pp. 54-58. 2) Thirty-second Annual Report on American Industry. New York: Forbes, January 7, 1980, pp. 137-140. 3) Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972. Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, 1977. 4) Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification, Revised, Statistical Papers Series M, No. 38, Vol. 1. New York: United Nations, 1963. 5) Standard & Poor's industry surveys, Chemicals, Basic Analysis, 1979 and earlier years. 6) Statistical Abstracts of the United States 1978. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1979. 7) Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. 1 and 2, New York: United Nations, 1978. 8) 1977 World Trade Annual, Vol. II. New York: Walker and Company, 1979. 9) The Chemical Industry 1977. Paris: Organization for Economic CoOperation and Development, 1979. 10) Concentration Ratios in Manufacturing, 1972 Census of Manufactures, Special Report Series. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1973. 11) World Tables 1976. Washington, D.C.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank, 1976. 12) Statistical Yearbook. New York: United Nations, 1979 and earlier years. 13) Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations, 1979 and earlier years.

Table 1: Groups of Chemicals Under Investigation SITC Section 5. Chemicals 512 Organic chemicals 513 Inorganic chemicals: elements, oxides and halogen salts 514 Other inorganic chemicals 515 Radioactive and associated materials 521 Mineral tar and crude chemicals from coal, petroleum and natural gas 531 Synthetic organic dyestuffs, natural indigo and colour lakes 532 Dyeing and tanning extracts, and synthetic tanning materials 533 Pigments, paints, varnishes and related materials 541 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products 551 Essential oils, perfume and flavour materials 553 Perfumery and cosmetics, dentifrices and other toilet preparations (excepts soaps) 554 Soaps, cleansing and polishing preparations 561 Fertilizers, manufactured 571 Explosives and pyrotechnic products 581 Plastic materials, regenerated cellulose and artificial resins 599 Chemical materials and products, n.e.c.* *n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. Source: Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification, Revised, Statistical Papers Series M, No. 38, Vol. 1. New York: United Nations, 1963.

Table 2: Candidate Predictor Variables Variable Number Variable Original Logarithm Gross National Product (GNP) per capita in U.S. dollars V3 V21 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in millions of U.S. dollars V4 V22 Gross Domestic Product per capita in U.S. dollars V5 V23 Gross Domestic Investment in percent of GDP V6 V24 Percent of GDP generated in manufacturing V7 V25 Percent of GDP generated in services V8 V26 Energy Consumption in million metric tons of coal equivalent V9 V27 Value added per worker in U.S. dollars* V10 V28 Total labor force in thousands** V11 V29 National Income in millions of U.S. dollars V12 V30 National Income per capita in U.S. dollars V13 V31 Population in millions V14 V32 *In 1972 U.S. dollars **Figures from 1970

Table 3: Interaction Terms Variable Number Variable Original Logarithm Gross National Product per capita x population V15 V33 Percent of GDP generated in manufacturing x percent of GDP generated in services V16 V34 Value added per worker x total labor force V17 V35 Energy Consumption/Population V18 V36

Table 4: Chemicals. As Percent of All Trade Year 1960 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Slope Coefficient t-Statistic Significance 1 6.01 6.24 6.53 6.68 6.90 7.07 7.26 7.25 7.13 7.06 7.12 7.25 7.75 7.15 7.05 2 7.57 7.73 8.00 8.14 8.33 8.53 8.74 8.63 8.45 8.35 8.39 8.70 10.32 9.11 9.26.11369 4.8635.0003 3 1.08 1.19 1.33 1.39 1.46 1.52 1.48 1.64 1.69 1.70 1.85 1.82 1.65 1.80 1.46.039440 5.0745.0002 4 5.44 5.63 5.90 6.06 6.21 6.40 6.60 6.67 6.57 6.51 6.56 6.74 7.27 6.74 6.88.094613 8.3402.0000 5 6.95 7.07 7.37 7.48 7.60 7.83 8.12 8.05 7.87 7.78 7.81 8.18 9.85 8.77 9.25.14075 5.8126.0001 6 0.86 0.79 0.76 0.88 0.96 0.92 0.90 0.92 1.05 1.05 1.14 1.12 1.13 1.21 0.91.021995 4.2862.0009 7 7.63 8.27 8.68 8.86 9.36 9.55 9.74 9.55 9.39 9.21 9.44 9.39 9.44 8.35 7.58.025423.62220.5446 8 9.27 9.93 10.24 10.47 10.95 11.11 11.32 10.94 10.83 10.65 10.89 10.93 11.98 10.09 9.33.04164 1.0116.3302 9 1.80 2.54 3.29 3.15 3.40 3.71 3.65 4.30 4.06 4.00 4.38 4.30 3.44 3.41 3.14.087541 2.6493.0200.075503 5.0284.0002 1. From 2. From 3. From 4. From 5. From 6. From 7. From 8. From 9. From ME's to ME's. Dd&E's to ME's. DgME's to ME's. ME's to DdME's. DdME's to DdME's. DgME's to DdME's. ME's to DgME's. DdME's to DgME 's. DgME's to DgME's. 'urce: Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. 1 and 2, New York: United Nations, i98.

Table 5: Chemicals As Percent 'of All Tradein Prices of 1970 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 4.78 5.83 1.32 4.31 5.34 1.14 6.26 7.47 1963 5.39 6.62 1.40 4.87 5.98 1.00 7.39 8.78 1964 5.83 7.05 1.59 5.20 6.43 0.98 7.93 9.23 1965 5.91 7.20 1.53 5.47 6.67 1.01 7.87 9.28 1966 6.36 7.60 1.52 5.72 6.99 1.02 8.55 10.03 1967 6.71 8.10 1.52 6.07 7.43 0.96 9.09 10.55 1968 6.81 8.28 1.53 6.13 7.45 0.93 9.52 10.95 1969 6.88 8.19 1.68 6.39 7.64 0.95 9.16 10.28 1970 7.13 8.45 1.69 6.57 7.87 1.05 9.39 10.83 1971 7.41 8.68 1.85 6.77 8.09 1.16 9.66 11.05 1972 7.64 9.01 2.07 6.99 8.32 1.30 8.83 12.01 1973 7.79 9.16 2.01 7.30 8.67 1.23 9.82 8.91 1974 7.83 9.07 3.02 7.45 8.73 2.14 9.08 10.20 1975 7.39 8.45 3.36 7.04 8.17 2.37 8.50 9.46 1976 7.73 8.98 2.74 7.43 8.73 1.76 8.73 9.75 Slope Coefficient.19156.19555.11049.20195.21307.066895.14158.11268 t-Statistic 12.194 9.2068 5.4599 18.333 13.950 3.4852 3.5131 1.9422 Significance.0000.0000.0001.0000.0000.0040.0038.0741 1. From ME's to ME's. 2. From DdME's to ME's. 3. From DgME's to ME's. 4. From ME's to DdME's. 5. From DdME's to DdME's. 6. From DgME's to DdME's. 7. From ME's to DgME's. 8. From DdME's to DgME's. 9. From DgME's to DgME's. ource: Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. 1 and 2, New York: United Nations, 1978. 9 1.93 2.70 3.45 3.18 3.30 3.48 3.58 4.31 4.06 4.27 4.70 4.75 5.75 5.73 5.40.22689 14.053.0000

Table 6: Percent Distribution of Chemical Trade FlowsBetween Market Economies Year 1960 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Slope Coefficient t-Statistic Significance 1 95.68 95.65 95.44 95.51 95.43 95.52 95.84 95.53 95.37 95.34 94.87 94.70 93.70 93.24 94.12 2 4.32 4.35 4.56 4.49 4.57 4.48 4.16 4.47 4.63 4.66 5.09 5.30 6.30 6.76 5.88.13133 4.6357.0005 3 67.13 69.44 69.99 70.65 70.28 71.17 71.76 73.35 73.78 73.66 74.17 74.47 72.88 70.16 73.85.34987 4.2776.0009 4 32.87 30.56 30.01 29.35 29.72 28.83 28.24 26.65 26.22 26.34 25.83 25.53 27.12 29.61 26.12 -.35508 -4.4858.0006 5 67.42 70.26 71.22 71.67 71.25 72.29 72.81 74.72 74.93 73.91 75.59 75.99 74.20 71.64 75.53.40599 4.8423.0003 6 32.58 29.74 28.78 28.33 28.75 27.71 27.19 25.28 25.07 25.09 24.41 24.01 25.80 28.36 24.47 -.41283 -4.8221.0003 7 60.71 51.43 44.19 48.94 50.00 47.37 47.54 44.00 48.86 47.96 47.66 47.34 53.24 50.14 47.43.28726 -1.2982.2168 39.29 48.57 55.81 51.06 50.00 52.63 52.46 56.00 51.14 53.06 52.34 52.66 46.76 47.18 52.29.23510 1.0049.3333 8 -.13173 -4.6635.0004 1. Percent 2. Percent 3. Percent 4. Percent 5. Percent 6. Percent 7. Percent 8. Percent of all of all of all of all of all of all of all of all ME's ME's ME' s ME's DdME' DgME' DgME' exports accounted f exports accounted f imports accounted f imports accounted f or by DdMe's. 'or by DgME's..or by DdME's. 'or by DgME's. by DdME's. by DgME's. by DdME's. by DgME's. s s s s 5 exports exports exports exports absorbed absorbed absorbed absorbed ource: Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. 1 and 2, New York: United Nations, 1978.

Table 7: Percent Distribution of Chemical Trade Flows Between Market Economies IJ (based on prices of 1970) Year 1960 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1 94.82 94.63 95.35 95.53 95.42 95.54 94.83 95.56 95.37 95.34 94.84 94.67 94.18 93.22 94.12 2 6.22 5.75 5.84 5.47 5.09 4.62 4.32 4.62 4.63 4.80 5.29 5.03 7.24 8.43 6.61 3 67.70 69.44 69.95 72.07 70.98 71.90 71.05 73.35 73.78 73.67 74.17 75.59 74.76 71.91 73.85 4 32.82 30.56 29.73 28.53 28.84 27.71 28.81 26.94 26.22 26.09 26.09 24.60 25.20 28.13 26.12 5 67.94 70.27 71.20 73.05 71.95 73.01 72.86 74.68 74.93 74.92 75.62 77.17 76.12 73.42 75.53 6 32.60 29.73 28.46 27.47 27.96 26.59 28.04 25.57 25.07 24.77 24.65 22.99 23.76 26.71 24.47 7 8 66.67 55.56 48.15 50.91 50.85 50.00 48.48 44.30 48.86 48.48 48.78 47.37 53.66 51.40 47.74 33.33 42.22 48.15 45.45 45.76 48.33 50.00 54.43 51.14 50.51 50.41 53.38 45.85 45.33 50.75 Slope Coefficient t-Statistic Significance -.077312 -2.3582.0347.077228 1.2229.2431.38814 5.5945.0001 -.39794 -5.8408.0001.45280 6.3844.0000 -.46518 -6.2183.0000 -.59280.67028 -2.3264.0368 2.7885.0154 1. Percent 2. Percent 3. Percent 4. Percent 5. Percent 6. Percent 7. Percent 8. Percent of all of all of all of all of all of all of all of all ME's exports accounted ME's exports accounted j ME's imports accounted j ME's imports accounted j DdME's exports absorbed DdME's exports absorbed DgME's exports absorbed DgME's exports absorbed for For for For by by by by by DdMe's. by DgME's. by DdME's. by DgME 's. DdME' s. DgME's. DdME's. DgME' s. Source: Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1977, Vols. 1 and 2, New York: United Nations, 1978.

Table 8: Selection of Regression (model #1) Analysis at Step 11 for 37.V37 N = 34 out of 46 Source DF Sum of Sqrs Mean Square F-Stat Signif Regression Error Total 19 14 33.45689+13.22989+11.45919+13.24047+12.16421+10 146.44.0000 Multiple R =.99749 R-Sqr =.99499 SE = 40523. Variable Constant 3.V3 4.V4 5.V5 6.V6 7.V7 8.V8 12.V12 14.V14 15.V15 16.V16 17.V17 18.V18 21.V21 24.V24 25.V25 29.V29 30.V30 33.V33 34.V34 Remaining 9.V9 10.V10 11.Vi1 13.V13 22.V22 23.V23 26.V26 27.V27 28.V28 31.V31 32.V32 Partial.96155 -.62640 -.95963 -.73396 -.89692 -.88002.91004 -.91081 -.92770.91575 -.71663.84680 -.94631.79114 -.68665 -.92172 -.69654.91441.77872 Partial.02246 -.07075.43112 -.26042 -.09481.05547 -.00000.05500 -.16573.29321.00000 Coefficient -.67585 +7 1008.3 -28.513 -893.55 -43981. -96366. -.11277 +6 81.943 -1289.7 -39.326 1674.5 -.56404 -2 64507. -.82815 +6.11639 +7 -.22195 +7 -.59822 +6 -.42900 +6.11533 +7.29285 +7 Std Error.20549 +7 76.966 9.4829 69.993 10877. 12698. 16265. 9.9757 156.23 4.2294 196.34.14671 -2 10829 75608..24049 +6.62804 +6 67280..11811 +6.13645 +6.63056 +6 T-S tat -3.2889 13.100 -3.0067 -12.766 -4.0434 -7.5893 -6.9329 8.2143 -8.2549 -9.2981 8.5287 -3.8446 5.9568 -10.953 4.8398 -3.5341 -8.8916 -3.6323 8.4522 4.6443 Signif.0054.0000.0094.0000.0012.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0018.0000.0000.0003.0033.0000.0027.0000.0004 Signif.9367.8022.1086.3486.7368.8444 1.0000.8457.5550.2889 1.0000 Regression of 37.V37 using backward selection Step 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 R-Sqr.99742.99742.99742.99742.99727.99721.99687.99660.99643.99618.99542.99499 Std Error 62814. 54398. 48655. 44453. 42350. 40002. 39948. 39499. 38593. 38241. 40204. 40523. # Var 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 Variable Partial Signif 26.V26 32.V32 9.V9 22.V22 11.V11 23.V23 10.V10 28.V28 27.V27 13.V13 31.V31 In Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out -.00000 -.00000.04085.23583.13886 -.32965 -.28188.21848 -.25765 -.40601.29321 1.0000 1.0000.9307.5739.7216.3523.4010.4951.3954.1497.2889

Table 9: Selection of Regression (Model #2) Analysis at Step 9 for 37.V37 N = 34 out of 46 Source DF Sum of Sqrs Mean Square F-Stat Signif Regression Error Total 23 10 33.45896+13.23174+10.45919+13.19955+12.23174 +9 861.08.0000 Multiple R =.99975 R-Sqr =.99950 SE = 15223. Variable Constant 38.V38 4.V4 6.V6 7.V7 8.V8 9.V9 10.V10 12.V12 14.V14 15.V15 16.V16 17.V17 18.V18 21.V21 24.V24 26.V26 27.V27 28.V28 29.V29 30.V30 31.V31 33.V33 40.V40 Remaining 3.V3 5.V5 11.V11 13.V13 22.V22 23.V23 25.V25 32.V32 34.V34 Partial.96597 -.93685.89178.64240.86248 -.66756.80829.91619 -.77169.92411 -.75826 -.91929 -.61355.83233 -.90165 -.87114.90696 -.85746 -.80529.81963 -.83406 -.82385.89297 Partial -.09442 -.11565.09910 -.04549 -.27359 -.26523.07161.00001.07161 Coefficient.12187 +8 1.1514 -53.564 38515. 10321. 54131. -801.06 33.296 53.532 -341.03 13.074 -335.64 -.60191 -2 -26486..33643 +7 -.10048 +7 -.23943 +7.29221 +6 -.27272 +6 -.23142 +6.29837 +7 -.32975 +7 -.31932 +7.13882 +6 Std Error.17853 +7.97491 -1 6.3231 6179.6 3893.5 10044. 282.54 7.6698 7.4046 88.880 1.7096 91.257.81493 -3 10780..70848 +6.15240 +6.42678 +6 42915. 51752. 53878..65949 +6.68971 +6.69473 +6 22128. T-Stat 6.8260 11.811 -8.4712 6.2326 2.6508 5.3892 -2.8352 4.3412 7.2295 -3.8370 7.6475 -3.6780 -7.3861 -2.4570 4.7486 -6.5929 -5.6102 6.8089 -5.2698 -4.2952 4.5243 -4.7809 -4.5963 6.2734 Signif.0000.0000.0000.0001.0243.0003.0177.0015.0000.0033.0000.0043.0000.0338.0008.0001.0002.0000.0004.0016.0011.0007.0010.0001 Signif.7824.7349.7719.8943.4156.4306.8343 1.0000.8343 Regression of 37.V37 using backward selection Step 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R-Sqr.99968.99968.99968.99968.99968.99967.99965.99960.99950.99950 Std Error 38310. 27090. 22119. 19174. 17168. 15822. 15221. 15128. 15939. 15223. # Var 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 Variable 25.V25 32.V32 34.V34 23.V23 3.V3 22.V22 11.Vll 13.V13 5.V5 In Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Partial.00000.00001 -.04465 -.04570 -.13750.27173.33789.44636 -.11565 Signif 1.0000 1.0000.9432.9315.7688.5150.3738.1960.7349

Table 10: Selection of Regression (Model #3) Analysis at Step 5 for 37.V37 N = 34 out of 46 Source DF Sum of Sqrs Mean Square F-Stat Signif Regression Error Total 11 22 33.42958+13.29607+12.45919+13.39053+12.13458+11 29.019.0000 Multiple R =.96722 R-Sqr =.93552 SE =.11601 +6 Variable Constant 3.V3 4.V4 7.V7 8.V8 9.V9 11.V11 12.V12 13.V13 16.V16 17.V17 18.V18 Remaining 5.V5 6.V6 10.V10 14.V14 15.V15 Partial.60661 -.83785 -.56913 -.66291 -.56308 -.67554.84643 -.70664.56230 -.49394.63901 Partial.10511 -.20266.23782.11350 -.28095 Coefficient.18536 +7 475.25 -103.82 -64347. -43291. -2483.6 -3.4859 131.32 -617.21 1468.0 -.91935 -2.11708 +6 Std Error.45637 +6 132.79 14.422 19820. 10424. 777.15.81115 17.613 131.76 460.28.34503 -2 30047. T-Stat 4.0617 3.5790 -7.1987 -3.2465 -4.1529 -3.1959 -4.2974 7.4555 -4.6842 3.1894 -2.6645 3.8965 Signif.0005.0017.0000.0037.0004.0042.0003.0000.0001.0042.0142.0008 Signif.6331.3537.2745.6061.1941 Regression of 37.V37 using backward selection Step 0 1 2 3 4 5 R-Sqr.94645.94640.94606.94477.94061.93552 Std Error.12027 +6.11693 +6.11417 +6.11261 +6.11396 +6.11601 +6 # Var Variable 16 15 5.V5 14 14.V14 13 10.V10 12 6.V6 11 15.V15 Partial Signif In Out Out Out Out Out -.03069.07896.15301 -.26462 -.28095.9007.7407.5079.2340.1941

Table 11: Selection of Regression (Model #4) Analysis at Step 12 for 37.V37 N = 34 out of 46 Source DF Sum of Sqrs Mean Square F-Stat S [tgl f Regression Error Total 5 28 33.45543+13.37548+11.45919+13.91087+12.13410+10 679.25.0000 Multiple R =.99590 R-Sqr =.99182 SE = 36620. Variable Constant 4.V4 9.V9 15.V15 17.V17 38.V38 Remaining 3.V3 5.V5 6.V6 7.V7 8.V8 10.V10 11.V11 12.V12 13.V13 14.V14 16.V16 18.V18 Partial -.63057.55087.65405 -.60682.99010 Partial -.17769 -.17799 -.31086 -.12126 -.34795 -.17012.23996.13755 -.18133.26021 -.30480 -.18417 Coefficient 8998.6 -8.9100 800.21 10.905 -.38720 -2 1.6971 Std Error 8628.0 2.0726 229.12 2.3835.95846 -3.45458 -1 T-Stat 1.0429 -4.2991 3.4926 4.5752 -4.0398 37.333 Signif.3059.0002.0016.0001.0004.0000 Signif.3564.3556.1007.5309.0644.3776.2099.4768.3465.1728.1079.3389 Regression of 37.V37 using backward selection Step 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 R-Sqr.99484.99484.99483.99481.99478.99477.99465.99438.99419.99361.99320.99258.99182 'Std Error 38492. 37344. 36309. 35431. 34610. 33812. 33406. 33501. 33340. 34255. 34643. 35517. 36620. # Var 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Variable 12.V12 18.V18 3.V3 13.V13 5.V5 11.V11 14.V14 8.V8 6.V6 10.V10 7.V7 16.V16 Partial Signif In Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out Out.00798 -.03096 -.07113 -.06651.04633 -.14866.22113.18000 -.30094.24477.28955 -.30480.9749.8999.7657.7745.8378.4984.2991.3892.1352.2185.1350.1079

FIGURE 1: CHEMICALS AS PERCENT OF ALL TRADE 8 2 5 1 4 I '. 9 6 196000 1961.60 1363.20 1364.80 1966.40 1368) 16380 137t20 TIME 1. From ME's to ME's I. From DdME 's to ME's 6. From DaME's to DcME's 2. From DdME's to ME's 7. From ME's to DgME's 3. From DgME 8. From DdME's to DgME's 4. From ME;s to DdME's 4. From ME's to DdME's 9. From DgME's to DgME's. From DdME's to DdME's 197280 1374,40

FIGURE 2: CHEMICALS AS PERCENT OF ALL TRAnE IN PPICFS OF 1970 8 2 5 '1 4 9 3. 6 9 1964,80 1. From ME's to ME's 2. From DdME's to ME's 3. From DgME's to ME's 4. From ME's to DdME's 5. From DdME's to DdME's 6. From DgME's to DdME's 7. From ME's to DgME's 8. From DdME's to DgME's 9. From DgME's to DgME's

FIGURE 3: PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF CHEMICAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN MARKET FCONOMIES I 5 3 z uJs Ud. w a8 14: 8 4 6 I g. 8 2 1361L60 t6I 20 16E00 TIME 1ss660 137t20 137280 1. Percent of all ME's exports accounted for by DdMe's 2. Percent of all ME's exports accounted for by DgME's 3. Percent of all ME's imports accounted for by DdME's 4. Percent of all ME's imports accounted for by DgME's 5. Percent of all DdME's exports absorbed by DdME's 6. Percent of all DdME's exports absorbed by DgME' s 7. Percent of all DgME's exports absorbed by DdME' s 8. Percent of all DgME's exports absorbed by DgME' s

FIGURE 4: PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF CHEMICAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEER MARKET ECONIMIES (BASED ON PRICES OF 1970) S - 1 /S~(`3~~ 8 7 4 3.0>.0! ^ 971.0 4 1372.80 19374~40! 76^2 L. 1660 1971.0 197280 1374.40 1760 5. Percent of all DdME's exports absorbed by DdMEs 6. Percent of all DdME's exports absorbed by DgME's 7. Percent of all DgME's exports absorbed by DdME's 8. Percent of all DgME's exports absorbed by DgME's 1964,80 19L 40 1. Percent of all ME's exports accounted for by DdMe's 2. Percent of all ME's exports accounted for by DgME's 3. Percent of all ME's imports accounted for by DdME's 4. Percent of all ME's imports accounted for by OgME's

Table 12: Models of Imports of Chemicals including the Lagged Dependent Variable as Predictor Coefficients IV V1 I V4 I V5 1 V6 I V7 I Dependent Variable (SITC) I I I V8 V3 V9 I I I I 1 I I 512 __ i -9.6070 I_ -2281.8 1 4702.7 I 1 736.27...I 1.. I [... I.... 513 _ 1 -4.3273 1 __ -3626.3 _I 420.88 I I 1 1 1 I 514 20.992 1 -2.0866 1 I ___ 1 i I 1 515 1 95.822 1 -9.2789 1 __ _ -1489.7 1 I I I ] I I 1 521 1 I_ I i _-385.00 I_ I iI I 1 1 I 1 531 34.189 1 __ -581.56 I -694.25 I 1 I I I I 532 _ I -.00244 1 I __ _ I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 533 6.67541 _ __-430.78 1 _ 541 95.530 1 1 -85.173 1 1 _-1221.2 588.72 1 - - I - 1 - 1 1 I I I I I I I 551 I 18.027 I I I i I -197.83 1 -28.881 553 9.50761 -.96021 1 1 -300.80 1 -1014.0 I -597.51 _ 1 ' -I I - - 1 - I I - 554 18.910 1 1 -12.935 1 -343.40 1 -50.298 — I --- - I I I I 561 I___ _________ I I 561 r I 1 I I I I I 571 _1 -3.2749 40.202 1 1 -133.99 I I I I I - I i- 581 162.95 1 -15.477 1 1 _ 1 -3010.5 _ I I I -167 I -1 599 1 45.997 1 -9.0516 1 1 -1697.3 1 -1073.2 1 -1235.5 1 -377.27

Table 12 —Continued Dependent Variable (SITC) V10 Coefficients V12 I V13 V12 I V13 Vii V14 V15 V16 I I I I i I I 512 6.1530 I I i _ 1 11.726 I 125.43 I I I I I I I I I. - I I I 513 1 _______________5.6090 __________ ______91.266 514 1 ___ 2.3054 1 -23.396___ I I I1 I I II 515 1 -9.5149 i 1 15.660 1 101.52 _1 -4.87991 I II 1! 1 521 4.3597 1 [1 77.423 __ I I I I I i 1 531 1 1 ________1.6174 -33.779 114.59 -1.46311______ 532 __ __-.227251 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 533 1 -4.4905 1 -.47035 1____ _ I I I i I I 541 __-.29970 5.1493_ 1 -3.36951 -31.178 I I I I I I I 551 1 -1.8385 1 I 1.2011 1 -19.615 __ -1.01571 I I I - ' I I 553 1 1 1 1.4378 1 -12.901 1 -61.932 1 1 29.008 II I I i I I 554 1 -3.4319 1 -.94569 1.123361 1 265.25 __ 561 1 -6.1144 i _ 1 3359.7 I I I I I 571 1 -3.0610 1 -.97927 2.9723 1 -43.383 278.54 1.898001 1 I 1 1 I 1 i I,j I I I I I I 581 _ 1 -7.8901 1 19.278 1-147.80 1 2234.1 1 1 -70.140 5I 1. -. I -59 6 16 I 1 599 1 1 -.31062 1 10.879 1 -59.616 1 { {

Table 12 —Continued c pl)et 'nde t Variable (SITC) Coef Eic LelIts V17 I V18 Vl7 I Vl8 LaKgg: d (l Dependent Variable F-Statistic (Significance) Standard Error Constant l ~~I I I l~ |1~ ~450.90 512 1 -0.0039 1 I 1.7135 63497 (.0000).99412 1 33539. I..,.. 1 1. I l ~ ~ ~~I I l~ [ 1 ~166.12 513 1 -0.0015 i -7098.1 1 1.2224 21262 (.0000)..98299 1 20708 1... 1. 1. I..... I. I. lI 1 1 1 [63.348 514 1 1.3225 13168 (.0000) 1.92956 111852 I ---- -I 1- 1 i II I 1 1 1 26.199 i 515 _1 15047 2.4053 55082 (.0000) 1.91822 1 21775 F I.I II.. 1I ~I l~ l~ 1 ]8.155.28 521 1-5557.6 1 1.9592 13983 (.0000).96880 i 3577.4 I I I I.. I i I I 1 51.144 531 __.58952 48477 (.0000). 94459 1 7060.3 I I I I 128.54 I I 128.54 532 __ _1.5034 376.53 (.0000).93230 1011.3 I I I FI 1 I I 112.90 533.00004 1 1 1.2785 20870 (.0000).96441 7397.4 I 1I I I 1. I~ i l ~ 1 I 119.95 541 1 -.0025 1 _1.2722 80487 (.0000).98522 19602!I I 1 I i 210.27 I 551 1 1 3078.5 1.70515 11531 (.0000).98954 3023.5 1 1 *.. II I I I I l~ I~~ I l~ 1 I 158.74 553 -.000361 2200.9 1.0481 1 29764 1 (.0000).99374 12710.5 I I 1 I I I I 1! 1 80.868 I 554 1 I 2530.8 1.1952 15530 (.0000).97587 5202.5 I I I I I r I 1 1 I 1 I67.241 561 1 1 1.0333 14710 (.0000).89367 59668 I I I I I I 10~ 1i~~ ~ ll I9.2175 571 __ 3210.2 1 _ 7736.3 1 (.0000).82171 3699.9 I I I I I I I II I I I 315.49 1 581 1 -.001851 1 1.1746 1 181830 (.0000).99339 27367 F I I I 7...!~~ I ~~I I 211.80 599 1 1 18982 1.0467 1 117150 1 (.0000) 1.99107 1 16200

Table 13: Models of Exports of Chemicals including the Lagged Dependent Variable as Predictor Coefficients I I I VV6 V V3 I V4 I V5 I V6 I V7 I Dependent Variable (SITC) V8 V9 512 1-121.15 1 -9.3434 I 1 2893.3 1 -30717 1 -12853 1 -861.25 I i I I I I 513* 1 120.81 1 1-123.22 1__ __ I 1 I 1 I I I 514* _ 1 2.4035 1 _ 1 -3456.6 1 -1338.8 1 -59.919 I i1 I I I I! 515 1-47.802 1 4.8434 1 1I _-1588.9 _1 -913.71 I I I I Ir I- - 521 1 -18.898 I -4.3799 11.768 | 671.87 i -1264.5 __ -249.63 I I - I 1 I I 531 I I ___-1236.2 J 1 -312.79 I I I I I I I 532* 1 1.32241.09137 1 -1.59921 1 252.77 164.28 1 I I I I I I I 533 1 -9.28551 -.46414 1 1 _-557.99 I 1 -116.90 I I I I I I 1 541 ___________ _____ __________ -2580.8 1 { -571.14 551*.__95575 1 _ -329.79 ______ 1 I 1 I I I I 553 1 3.7714 1 1 -3162.7 1307.41 I I I -I I! I 554 12.5741 1 -8.97101 1 -3920.9 1 -1733.6 1 -198.95 I I II I I i 561 __5.5769 1780.5 1 -8394.0 1 -3572.3 -781.48 I I I I I I 1 571 I_ I I _-285.65 I _ -49.177 I I I 1 i I 1 581 _ 1 -3.7308 1 1 1 -24673 1 -11571 -910.36 5I I 5 I I i 1 I -5 599 1 1 -4.2956 1 I 1 1 1359.0 1 -535.92 *Only partial results are shown, near singular matrix. further exclusion of variables would lead to

Table 13 —Continued Coefficients I I I V12 I V13 Dependent Variable (SITC) V10 Vi1 V14 V15 V16 I I I j i I 1 512 __1 9.1795 _ 1 92.722 -3582.6 11.011 1 679.12 I I I I I I I 513* I I I I Il I I I I 514* 1 I.71016 1 -2.3235 1 -6.4933 -257.95 _1 87.377 I I I I I I I 515 I _-6.5315 1 48.816 __ _ 52.173 I I I I I I I 521 l 3.3829 1 1.7295 14.499 1 I I I I I I 531 -8.3953 1 1.2999 1 __ -497.71 -.68739 1 34.403....... I - 1 1 - 532* I 1 -.06763 I __ _27.9371 -.08368 1 -6.0500 I I i I I I 533 1 I.06860 __ 8.3172 _ 1 _18.020 I I I I 1' 1 541 1-10.461 1 -1.9346 62.566..-.... ---1 I F...- I.... I F-I.- ----- - --. ---I I I i I I I 551* 1 -4.6521 1 1 -1.1293 I I 1 _10.261 I I I F I F I I I I I i I 553 i -2.3979 1 -1.3630 1 -3.5815 I _ 530.33 I -1.0464 73.253 I I I 1 l *I 1 I 1I I I I I 554 1 -8.2245 1 ___ -25.184 1 -.47674 89.181 I I I I I I I 561 1-16.405 1 I-8.9739 1 20.321 1 1 225.50 I I I I I I I 571 1 -1.4006 1 I -.263521 2.1858 I _ _ 8.4251 I I I I 1 I 581 1-14.746 1 5.6174 1 I I -2246.5 1 3.9749 1573.70 5993.4051 I I -1331.6 -20.060 599 ] I 3.4051 1 3.7924 1 1 -1331.6 1 1 -20.060 *Only partial results are shown; further exclusion of variables near singular matrix. would lead to

Table 13 —Continued Dependent Variable (SITC) Coefficients I V17 I V18 Lagged Dependent Variable F-Statistic (Significance) Standard I Error Constant 2810.5 512 [ 1 16319 1.4918 547280 (.0000).99964 1 19068.. F..I I.. 1.1 1 1.. I 1 1 109.18 I 513* I.00007 1 1 1.5430 20964 (.0000).94997 41714 [. I.... I. I.I I 1 1 1 ] 390.48 514* I-.00018 [ 3449.4 1.1792 53434 1 (.0000) 1.99639 I 7741.3 f T I I! I I 1 1 I 1 1 228.70 1 515.00249 ____3.1760 1 -10551 (.0000).99324 1 8409.6 I. F. I I I 48.309 1 521 1 1 4826.7 2.2853 862.57 (.0000) 1.97612 1 3465.0 1585.3 531.00139 1 9707.6.95089 1 2728.2 (.0000) 1.99887 1 4920.4...... i I....I...............!......... I.....!..........I... 1I 1 1 1 379.5 1 532* 1-.00001 1 406.93 1 1.2409 1-7510.9 (.0000) 1.99693 667.99 I. I I I. I.... ii I I ' 11 1453.0 1 533.00073 I 1932.2 1 1.2323 1-6583.7 i (.0000).99890 1 4222.9 i 1. F I. I I 1 1 960.09 1 1 541.00329 112350 1.3621 18966.0 (.0000) [.99727 1 17900 I I. 1 F TI I I I 1 1 1.261.72 551*.00006 5014.8 1 1.1003 1 3735.3 I (.0000) |.99101 4175.6 1 I F 1 F I I 988.94 | 553.00053 1 2058.1 1.5069 61007 (.0000).99874 3534.2 1I.... I 1 1 1 I F 695.51 554.00092 1 7945.2 1.5099! 84063 (.0000).99797 4175.7 I I 1 i 11 549.18 561.00465 ____1.7995 102360 (.0000).99752 16901 1 I I 1 F I I I 354.89 571 1.00037 _ I 1.5743 213.09 1 (.0000).99231 1683.0 I I I I 1 1659.7 1 I 581 1.00148 1 18107 1.2263 515020 (.0000).99910 22298 I I I FI I I 1 1 1 2546.7 _599 __.00219 1. 1.4435 -43957 (.0000).99913 12832 *Only partial results are shown; further exclusion of variables would near singular matrix. lead to

Table 14: Models of Imports of Chemicals Coefficients I V4 I V5 | V6 Dependent Variable (SITC) V3 V7 V8 V9 i I I I I I I 512 I 472.24 | -103.63 1 _ _ -64247 I -43359 -2500.2 I I I I i I I 513 __ -16.622 1 210.78 1 1 -12035 1 -4196.4! I II I I I 514 90.815 -10.700 1 i 1 -6460.1 -4066.0 -I - - — I 1 - i I I! I I I! I 515* 1 178.03 1 ___-2458.4 883.47 __ i I I I I 1 1 521 46.377 1 -2.9618 1 1 -698.07 --- -— I -— I ------ 531 58.840 1 -63.0171 1 _ -843.54 1 -255.95 I I I I I 532 1 -1.88791 ______ -86.369 533 1 117.52 1 1 -101.26 _ i _-1653.5 -479.14 I I I I I - I I 541 1404.75 24.005 1 -598.41 1 ___ I I 1 I I I I 551 46.202 1 I I i -426.03 I -212.81 I I I I I - I I 553 1 -12.510 __1 -4325.5 -1916.3 1 -184.38 I I I I I I I 554* 43.090 _ 1 -43.1591 ____ -339.62 I I I I I I I 561 I I.272241 561.1._______.27224.________I _________.1.1._______. I.___________ i 1 I I I I - 571 1 1 -3.2347 1 37.5501 1 I. -129.14 I I i I I I.1 581 1 760.20 -36.269 1 1-10492 1 1 -15259 -1580.4 5I I 1 1 -1105 -3148 -18I 599 1 289.06 1 1 -312.01 1 ____ 1 -11095 1 -5314.8 1 -1874.7 *Only partial results are shown; near singular matrix. further exclusion of variables would lead to

Table 14 —Continued Coefficients I I I V12 I V13 )ependent Variable I (SITC) I V5 V15 V10 V11 V14 V16.... j! j jj I I I I I I I I. 512 1 1 -3.4872 1131.09 1 -617.56 1 1 11469.3 I I I I I I r 513 -.44041 1 20.224 1-245.07 1 I 1 337.56 i I I 1 1 514 1 -3.6096 1 14.208 -100.98 1 1085.4 1_ 146.26 I 1 1 [ I I... I 515* 1-16.203 1 6.5075 1 10.072 I -176.99 -2126.1 1 -9.5219 1 1I i! 1 - - - I - - 1 1! 1 I I I I I I 521 1 5.8566 -47.750 -1.7836 I I I I 1 I i 531 1 _1 3.7586 1 1 244.10 -3.62171 I i ' 'I- I 1I I! 532 1 I I I __ -.082451 T I I I 1I I I1 533 1-13.087 I -4.5369 1 5.0578 1 I 1494.3 1 -4.7708 1 I I I 1 I I 1 541 _1 -.63175 _1 246.39 _ 1 -23.903 1 I I I I I I I 551 1 -6.0145 1 1 3.3628 1 -48.044 1 1 -3.1484 1 I I I I I I I 553 _1 -.65897 10.539 -11.132 1__ 5.1400 1 102.21 I I I I I I I 554* 1 _ -2.2888 1.9274 1 1 756.13 -1.6231 I I I I I I 561 _ 1-13.320 1 I 45.091 1 6389.7 _.......... I' I 1 I' 1-' 1 I I I I I I 571 1 -2.9035 1 -.90163 2.9432 -40.048 260.90 1.873581 I I I I I 1 I 581 1 _ _ 78.205 1 -765.09 _1 -31.045_ I 1 -10.859 17.6953922.7 -15.565 268.41 I 599 1-21.431 1-10.859 1 17.695 1 1 3922.7 1 -15.565 1 268.41 *Only partial results are shown; further near singular matrix. exclusion of variables would lead to

Table 14 —Continued I I 1 1 F-St Dependent Variable (SITC) Coefficients I V17 I V18 1 i atistic Constant (Significance) Standard Error I I I -I - - I r I 1 1 1 J 29.042 512 1-.00915 1 118950 1 1854600 1 (.0000) 1.93557 1 115960 l 1 t~~ I 56.401 513 1-.00103 i 164920 1 (.0000) 1.95846 1 33086 I I - I I 1~i I I I 11.880 1 514 1-.00214 1 9416.4 1 188320 1 (.0000) 1.87306 1 18095 1I I 1 -I 11.752 515*.00062 1 13563 1 34414 1 (.0000) 1.87185 1 28657 I I I I 1 ~ I 1 ~ 1~i~ ~ 16.318 521 1-.00053 1 1 28294 1 (.0000) 1.82637 1 8669.4 1I [l l 1 19.921 531 1.00079 1 9171.4 1 43830 1 (.0000) 1.88194 1 10512 T.I I I i [-...! 1 I 9.5651 1 I 532.00027 1 1403.7 1 2452.6 1 (.0000) 1.63916 1 2401.3 I I I I I. 1 I~! 9.0498 1 533 I-.00125 1 20550 1 67402 1 (.0000) 1.82579 1 18074 I I I 1 I. I I 18.221 541 __ 1 55369 1 (.0000) 1.82618 1 60481 I 1 1 1 1 1 g~ 1 J 41.986 551 1.00064 1 8379.4 1 22454 1 (.0000) 1.94735 1 6677.8 1 ~~i I I I I - l [l~ 1J ~ 1 ~27.909 1 1 553 1-.00184 1 8387.0 1 89439 1 (.0000) 1.95937 1 6634.0 r I I I r - 1J 1 ~~~ I 8.2631 554*.00057 1 7902.1 1 -4250.1 1 (.0000) 1.77171 1 15426 1 ~ 1- - I I I - l ~~I Jl I I ~47.607 561 _1 -24284 1 10852 1 (.0000) 1.90153 1 57031 I i... I 1 1. l~~I l~ 1 1 ~8.8674 571 _ 1 2796.1 1 7027.9 1 (.0000) 1.80852 1 3809.4 I.. 1...I.. -I I I1 1 I 29.791 1 581 1 1 58822 1 772680 1 (.0000) 1.92099 1 91295 1I.. I I - ' -'I - 1.. I I 1 24.170 599 1.00351 1 77881 1 216270 1 (.0000) 1.94016 1 43518 ~~~~~~................ _ *Only partial results near singular matrix. are shown; further exclusion of variables would lead to

Table 15: Models of Exports of Coefficients I I I I V4 I V5 I V6 Chemicals Dependent Variable (SITC) V8 V3 V7 V9 I I I I I -I - 512 1478.06 1 1 -26501 1-267220 1-170760 1 2503.3 I I I I I 1 I 513______________ I! I 1 1 1 514 166.90 1 ___ -12066 1 -7586.5 _ i I i I i I r 515 1 __ } _ __ -563.87 1 I I 1 I I I 521 1 1 -1.6956 1 1 -9723.3 1 -5984.0 1 I! I I I -1 - 531 1 261.54 __ 1 -7746.2 8718.8 _ I I 1 I I 1I I 532 1 0.773 1 -1.8044 _ _ 1 3996.1 1626.1 1 I I i I I I I 533 1 171.15 1 -31.132 1 _ 1 648.44 I 1 1 I I I I 541 1 707.55 __ 1 -14883 1 -47603 1 -35728_..... I.1. 551 1 _____ 1 -412.62 I I I I I I I 553 1 80.51 _ 1-157.96 1 1 5929.8 _ 1 -897.21 II 1 1 1 I I 554 1 244.11 1 1-232.40 1 __ 1 760.14 I I I I I I I- 561* 1 -75.485 1 -18.682 1 I ___-1469.5 I I I I I I 571 1 42.357 I -3.7722 __________ I I I I I I I 581 1 428.59 1 _ 1 -24516 1 -228250 i -152420 _ I I. I -11 5 -1 11 599 1 504.98 1 -75.717 i 1 -11845 1 1 -11135 1 *Only partial results are shown; further exclusion near singular matrix. of variables would lead to

Table 15 —Continued Dependent Variable (SITC) I I I Coefficients I 1 I V12 I V13 V10 Vi1 V14 V15 V16 - 1 j 1 1 i i I I I I 1 I 512 i 149.98 1 i27.322 1 -732.33 1 -2354.4 1 16278.3 I I I.1... I...I I 1 I I I I I 513 I __ 3.35421 ____ i r I I I I i 514 1 10.354 1 -190.68 -263.71 -7.5091 1 269.40 I I I I I 1 I 515 _ i __3.4218 1 1 -5.1129 _ I I I I I I 521 __ _ 2.1987 1 -5.79751 -83.039 1 218.56 I I I I 1 I 531 1 _ 1 17.734 1 -338.46 -365.14 1 -11.787 1-227.36 I I i I I I I 532 1 2.2927 1 -10.921___ 1 -84.932 i I 1 1 I I I 533 1 12.910 1 40.710 1-179.64 1 -5252.6 1 I I I 1 1 I I 541 _ _ 1 45.045 1 -727.30 1 -1367.5 1 -39.520 11116.5 I 1 I I 1 1 I 551 1 1 _ 2.2457 1 1 I -2.9127 _ I I I I I I I 553 1 1 11.661. _ -265.37 1 -13.078 1 168.79 I I I I I I I 554 1 1 13.897 _1 -191.48 1 -10.451 _ I I I 1 1 1- 1 1 1 1 I I I i 561* 1 I ___ I 23.887 72.197 I I I I I I I 571 1 -3.20161 1.1910 1 5.9255 1 -38.607 1 -519.32 I -1.4722 1 I 1 I I i I 1 I 581 1 138.44 1 _ 22.831 I -627.94 1 -2052.9 1 15408.0 599 122.005 1 1 I96 I 1 599..I! 22.005 1 96.378 1 -498.72 1 -9711.0 1..I_______. *Only partial results are shown; near singular matrix. further exclusion of variables would lead to

v t % " Table 15 —Continued I I I |I F-St< I Constant I (Signij Dependent Variable (SITC) I I I Coefficients V17 I V18 V17 I V18 atistic ficance) Standard Error. *,,,,,.. _ -j-. j. - II 1 ~ 1 I38.684 512 -.03003 1 1 7724000 (.0000) 1.959421 176360.. I F..I. I I 17. 872 I I 17.872 513 1-.00297 120107 -10584 (.0000) 1.682001 102020 I II - -I I I I l ~~ 1I~ 1 ~31.356 514 -.00167 1 13730 1 332810 (.0000) 1.94004 1 29276 I- I!!........i..I,.... I I! 1 I 29.619 I 515. 00369 i 1 -5771.2 (.0000) 1.84339 1 32573! I I! I - I I I~~ 1~ 1!11.324 521 1 -.00025 1 5538.3 267020 (.0000) 1.84990 1 7582.7 III I 11.934 531 1 -.00461 1 63737 1 164800 (.0000) 1.85036 I 52653 9.9589 1 1 532 1 -.00026 1 _ -76236 (.0000) 1.77598 1 4544.6 I 1 1 I I I 12.082 533 1 -.00698 1 _-24022 (.0000) 1.821521 47835! I I I I I 14.630 1 541 ___ 1 1877500 (.0000) 1.86245 1 127900 I I! ' I I I ~I l l ~ I~~ 88.4685 551.00193 1 ___3143.7 (.0000) 1.585311 25369 I I I I i i |I~ 1~ 1 II6.1109 553.00486 __ 1 21721 (.0000) 1.74324 I 44940 I I I I I I ~I I I ~~ I ~14.106 554 -.00359 1 ___-11434 1 (.0000) 1.80446 I 34811 I 1 1 26.716 I I 26.716 561* -.00222 1 80219 -73205 (.0000) 1.89474 1 93062! I I I I I ~I I I ~ l~ ~18.187 571 ________1171.5 (.0000) 1.86865 1 6955.8 l 1 0~~ I 21.754 581 -.02158 1! 6837900 (.0000) 1.911961 204900 i I l~~ l 18.943 599 1 -.01038 1 1 725030 1 (.0000) 1.88113 1 141750 *Only partial results are shown; further near singular matrix. exclusion of variables would lead to