THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN INDUSTRY PROGRAM OF THE COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING POTENTIAL DESIGN FOR MASS TRANSPORTATION IN EGYPT Mohammed F. Hussein A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University of Michigan Department of Industrial Engineering 1965 May, 1965 IP-704

DEDICATION To my beloved country; to the City of Cairo, in which I have been borne; to my father and mother; to my brother, Kamal El-Din Hussein; to my wife. ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author is indebted to many individuals for help, advice and encouragement during the course of his mission and this work. Gratitude is particularly due the following: American Friends of the Middle East, for partial financing of the mission. Dr. Moustapha Khalil, the U.A.R. Deputy Primier for Transportation and Communications. Dr. Ahmad Moharram, U.A.R. Former Minister of Housing. Dr. Richard L. Meier, for his tremendous advice on this work, and his best guidance in learning the systematic way of thinking and attacking problems. Dr. John D. Nystuen, for his help in the programming of this work. Dr. Bruce D. Greenshields and Professor Donald N. Cortright, for their guidance in this research. The University of Michigan Graduate School, for their partial financing of this research. The Industry Program of the College of Engineering for support and assistance in the preparation of this dissertation in its final form. iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEME NTS N........TS. o. o o................................ iii LIST OF TABLES,.................................................. Vi LIST OF FIGURES.................................................. ix CHAPTER I, THE FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM........................... 1 A Introduction........................................ 2 B. Background.......................................... 5 C. The History of Cairo................................ 8 D. Climate of Cairo.................................... 24 E. Population Analysis................................ 25 F. Anatomy of Cairo Metropolitan Area.................. 31 G. Transportation in Cairo,............................ 50 H Defining the Problem o.............................. 94 IIo DETERMINATION OF FUTURE POPULATION OF CAIRO THROUGH THE STUDY OF POPULATION GROWTH AND REDISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN EGYPT....................................... 101 A. Urbanization............................ 102 B. The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in the World. 105 C, Urbanization and Social Change................. 114 D. Urbanization and the Development of Pre-Industrial Areas........................................... 120 E. Classification of Urban Areas in Egypt..........o.. 130 F, Forces Governing Urbanization in the Future..... 141 Go Pressures for Outward Shifts........................ 147 Ho Forces Working as a Tie to the Nile Valley......... 163 I Conclusions o................o.............o.... 164 III. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND SOCIAL CHANGE PROJECTION IN CAIRO................................................... 176 A, General Approach................................... 177 B. Projected Population Distribution, o................ 178 C. Population Density....................... 181 D. Income Distribution............................ 185 iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) Page CHAPTER IV. TRAFFIC PROJECTION.............. o o........ 190 Ao Introduction.......................... 191 B. Available Information............................ 192 C. The Solution for the Traffic Projection........... 201 D. Results and Their Analysis................o........ 215 CONCLUSIONS....... o, o o..,.. o............... o......o.......... 220 REFERENCES..,...o o....o. o o.................................. 223 APPENDIX A D D mographic, Economic and Transportation Analysis in Cairo.............................................. 227 AP7ENDIX B - Urbanization and Urban Distribution in Egypt........ 244 APPENDIX C - Population and Social Change Projection in Cairo.,.. 249 APPENDIX D - Projected Traffic Volumes.,....................... 2253 v

LIST OF TABLES Table Page I Relative Location and Climatic Condition of Cairo and Some Other Cities....................................... 26 II Cairo's Population Growth as Compared to Other Areas...... 26 III Migration to Cairo Versus Urban Areas..................... 26 IV Sex Distribution......................................... 33 V Cultural Image of Cairo as Compared with Two Other Governorates...................................... 40 VI Air Passenger Traffic Volume and Its Type at Different Egyptian Cities (1960),...o........ o............... 55 VII Increase of Passenger Local Air Traffic................... 56 VIII Location and Size of Inter-City Bus Terminals in Cairo Per Day................................................... 67 IX Public Transport Systems in Cairo 1953-54 and 1962-63.... 78 X Average Traffic Volume Per Quarter Hour at Eleven Selected Points............................... 82 XI Traffic Accidents in Cairo,.. o.,.....oo.o......o........ 92 XII Percentage of WorldVs Population Living in Cities of 20 000 or More and 100,000 or More,..............o....... 112 XIII Percentage of World's Population Living in Cities by RegionsO.... 0.0.... 0 0 0. 0. 0.. 0 0.. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.... 0 0 113 XIV Percentage of Illiterates in the Population Aged 10 Years and Over (Regions).......,,o. o o.,,...o.....o..o.., 116 XV Per Cent Illiterates in Population Aged 10 Years or More (Some Countries).................. D..........o......,. 118 XVI Relation Between Degree of Urbanization and Agricultural Density OOO........................... O................ 119 XVII Distribution of World's Large Cities, and City Population by Degree of Agriculturalism of Countries (1950).ooooooooo 120 vi

LIST OF TABLES (CONT.) Table Page XVIII India's Relative Position on Selected Indices............. 122 XIX Population of Some Middle African Cities.................. 125 XX Urbanization in Egypt as Compared by Some Other Developed Countries................................................ 126 XXI Expected and Actual Urbanization in Egypt 1907-1960....... 127 XXII Rank Size Distribution of Population Settlements in Egypt (1960) Census......................................... 132XXIII Distribution of Industry Between the Urbanized Governorates and the Rest of the Country.............................. 135 XXIV Increase in Health Services 1952/60....................... 145 XXV Increase in Industrial Production 1952/60................. 145 XXVI Population Growth Rates.................................. 149 XXVII Official Population Projection............................ 150 XXVIII Population Projection (1960-1985)..................... 172 XXIX Average per Capita Yearly Spending on Transportation (in Piasters) in Urban Areas..................... 196 APPENDIX A I National Population Growth in Egypt....................... 227 II Percentage of Urban Population to Total Population........ 227 III Population Growth in Cairo and Other Major Cities in (o o)s...............2..................................... 228 IV Cairo Population Distribution by Sex, Families, and Persons per Family..................................... 229 V Age Distribution in Cairo................................. 230 VI Population and Density Distribution in Cairo.............. 231 VII Population and Density Distribution in Cairo............ 232 vii

LIST OF TABLES (CONT'D) Table Page APPENDIX A (CONT'D) VIII Residential Movement in Cairo........................... 233 IX Literacy.................................................. 235 X Economic Activity in Cairo - Its Distribution Among Active Members in Each District.................................. 236 XI Economic Activity Distribution of Persons Engaged in Each Activity in Each District................................. 237 XII Labor Force Distribution.................................. 238 XIII Number of Passengers Arriving and Departing from Cairo Airport in 1960........................................... 239 XIV Number of Motor Vehicles in Egypt by Year................. 240 XV Vehicle Traffic Count, Soliman Square,August 22, 1963, 6 to 7 p m................................................ 241 XVI Vehicle Traffic Count, Ramsis Square, August 2, 1963, 2 to 3 p.m................................................ 242 XVII Vehicle Traffic Count, Tahrire Square, August 22, 1963, 2 to 3 p.m............................................. 243 APPENDIX B I Rank Size Distribution of Cities and Villages in Egypt.... 244 II Economic Activity in Each Governorate..................... 245 III Economic Activity in Each "Bander........................ 246 IV Population Distribution of the Potential Metropolis Areas. 247 V Population Distribution of Other Urban Areas............ 248 APPENDIX C I Projection of Population, Economically Active Members, Income Level and Trip Pattern, for Each Subarea, in Projection Years........................................ 249 viii

LIST OF TABLES (CONT'D) Page Table APPENDIX D I Coordinates of the Center of Gravity of Each Subdivision. 253 II Coordinates; Provided Capacity (1960); (1960, 1975, 1985) Population Travel Potential at Randomly Choosen Points on the Network......................................... 255 III Points Identifying Each Line on the Network.............. 258 IV Projected Traffic Volume of Each Line.................... 260

LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Historical Map of Cairo......... o......................... 10 2 Key Map for Cairo Metropolitan Area Districts (Kism) and Sub-Districts (Shiyakha)...O..... o..oo o o....... o o 11 3 Age Distribution Pyramid of Cairo...o...oe.ooo...oo.O. 35 4 Population Density Distribution for Cairo MPoA, (1960). O.. 37 5 Income Level Distribution for Cairo MoPoAo (1960),..o o.oo. 48 6 Existing Transportation Facilities (1960),...o 9 o.oo00.. 51 7 Increase of International Passenger Traffic at Cairo Airporto............. 0. ~ ~.. ~ ~ ~.~ ~. ~ ~... 0 53 8 Monthly Variation of Passenger Traffic Volume at Cairo Airport...... o 0 0 0. 00 O 9. 0.0,. Q 000,,.,,,. 53 9 Air Traffic Volume Between Cairo and the Rest of the W orld.......................................................0O O 54 10 Rail Passenger Fluctuation for the Egyptian Region 1960-61, 1961-62 (Main Routes),. 0 0 0 o, 000 o o o o o o o o o o o 58 11 Number of Trains Arriving or Leaving Cairo Railroad Terminal Each Half Hour (Summer 1963). o 0 o o o o o o o o o o 60 12 Daily Traffic Fluctuation at Cairo Railroad Terminal Every Quarter Hour (Summer 1963, Number of Seats)................ 61 13 Increase of Number of Total Passengers Using Main Railway Lines Between 1939 and 1963 o;.,,,......ooo..........o.. 62 14 Monthly Inter-City Traffic Variation? 1962-63 Bus Transport., a.........o....... 0o0 000o 0 Oo.,ooeaoo, o. 0. 68 15 Daily Traffic Fluctuation For Inter-City Bus Transport, 1962-63 0...oo o o,oo o..oo o o. o o o o oo o o.o o o... a o 68 16 Outbound and Inbound Bus Traffic of El-Nile Company for Mid Delta, o.,,,, o o o....o..Q...........o....O.OOO..... 70 17 Hourly Traffic Variation on the Cairo-Alexandria Expressway at the Entrance of Cairo, Sept, 29, 1959 o o o o oo.. o... o. 71 ix

LIST OF FIGURES (CONT.) Figure Page 18 Suburban Rail Traffic Increase, (Yearly Variation).......... 74 19 Suburban Rail Traffic, (Monthly Variation) 9.... o.9.9...... 75 20 Per Cent Suburban Rail Traffic Variation (Monthly).......... 75 21 Per Cent Fluctuation in Traffic (Monthly) for All Passenger Transport Syste ms......,.............................. 80 22 Daily and Monthly Traffic Variation Tramways, Trollybuses, and Buses,. *................o. a... o a.................... 81 23 Localisation Des Pointages D'occupation (1954).............. 83 24 Releve de charge au point no.9 Clot Bey (Midan Khazindat) et rue Ibrahim Pacha............................... 84 25 Relev6 de, charge au point no. 8, Entree Rue Faggala........ 85 26 Releve de, charge au point no. 79 Rue ElMalika.,......... 86 27 Cairo Public Transport Traffic Flow, 1963, Exclusive of Railway Transport*..................................... 88 28 Motor Vehicles in Cairo and Egypt (1945-63)....6........... 89 29 Motor Vehicle Registration in Cairo (1945-63)* 00............ 89 30 Rank Size Distribution in Egypt........................ 131 31 Total and Urban Population Growth in Egypt.....,......... 68 32 Cairo's Share of the Total and Urban Population............. 173 33 Projected Distribution of Urban Population.................. 174 34 Projected Distribution of Urban Population in 1985......... 175 35 Existing and Projected Cumulative Curves, for Population Living in Specific Levels of Persons/Room................... 182 36 Projected Population Density for Cairo M.P.A. 1975.......... 183 37 Projected Population Density for Cairo M.P.A. 1985.......... 184 x

LIST OF FIGURES (CONT.) Figure Page 38 Projected Income Distribution 1975.......................... 187 39 Projected Income Distribution 1985......................... 188 40 Hypothetical Interaction Between Subareas in a Metropolitan Area...................................................... 202 41 Distance Effect on Travel Pattern.......................... 204 42 Traffic Volume Along a Line Path............................ 208 43 Representation of a Network in a Space...................... 211 44 Public Transport Behavior in an Urban Area.................. 215 45 Public Transport Behavior in Cairo......................... 216 46 Key Points on the Public Transport Network.................

CHAPTER I THE FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM -1 —

A. In-troduction As the title of this research, "Potential Design for Mass Transport Movement in Egypt," may indicate, this work will only be concerned with the preliminary proposals for the design of movement and will not be concerned with the detailed plans to overcome the passenger movement problem. In other words, this work can point the way to systems of overcoming the anticipated congestion but cannot provide a detailed design of the means to this endo Although in many parts of this work I may discuss the Egyptian region as a whole, the emphasis will be concerned with the dilemmas of movement within the "Cairo Metropolitan Area " The reason is that this area is settled by about one sixth of the population of Egypt,(l) and their share of economic, cultural and social activities. other than agriculture, reaches more than thirty per cent of the country's activities.(l) The mass transport movement of Cairo area alone - as the latest statistics indicate(2) - is about 742 million passengers per year, while the total intercity transport in Egypt is about 287 million passengers per year.(3) Moreover, the capital required to overcome the passenger transport needs for the metropolitan area may jump to a figure higher than that allocated for the total intercity passenger transport in the country. The Minister of Housing stated in July, 1963 that "a subway system for Cairo is under the study of a French and a British firm, the first estimate of constructing a part of the two main lines (14 Kms,) is twenty-eight million Egyptian pounds," This is only a fraction of the subway which must make up the ultimate system. This capital would -2

-3be allocated for an eight-year period of construction of the two main lines. On the other hand, the capital allocated for the total highway and bridge network for the country from the year 1952 - the year of the Egyptian Revolution - to the year 1964 - the last year of the first fiveyear plan - is about L.E. 4.,8 million,(4) a large share of which could be attributed to freight movement needs, A good approach to the solution of any problem can be achieved by defining and delimiting the problem itself. In other words, if somehow we can realize and point out "what is going wrong," then it will be possible to discover what part of the available technology should yield the logical solution. A good share of a skilled doctor's work is to diagnose the patient's illness. Knowing the complaints of the patient, his skill should direct him to make some checks as well as psychological, laboratory, or other tests by which he can define the illness, rather than anybody else who guesses at what it may be, taking any medicine on the shelf, if no improvement occurs he can try another until by chance he gets the right one; a procedure which can lead to a disaster. After defining the illness, the doctor can apply the up-to-date technology in prescribing the medicine and the routine to be followed. But what is the meaning of the tests applied? The doctor's skill is built up by knowing some standards that a normal persons have, e.g., normal temperature, normal blood pressure, normal blood analysis, etc. The major problem then is to know what properties deviate and how far they are from the means or standards which are well known to him. A transportation planner has a more difficult job than a doctor because most standards in transportation are relative and cannot

-4be absolute. Although this may be the case, we can still adopt the doctor's procedure of testing the degree of achievement of goals that lie behind the standardso Knowing the geographical background of the area under study, the history of its development, and the evolution of its transport problem, as in the doctor's case one should know the background of the patient's life and the history of his complaints, then the planner should measure the degree of achievement of certain goals in order to define and delineate the problem at hand. The following ends or goals are proposed as suited to Cairo: 1. Minimization of traffic movement in number and length of trips while still maintaining an adequate standard of living. That does not mean that one's goal is to make the number of trips as well as their lengths equal to zero. Real life is nothing but movement and transportation systems are the media for achieving movement. Our goal, therefore, is to reach the sites of all activities with the least number of movements and minimum cost in terms of expenditure of human time, effort, and money. 2. Reduction of the fluctuation of daily movement that can be made to fit the community desires. This aim would minimize the idleness of equipment and keep the seat vacancies at a low level. 3. Elimination of traffic concentrations, since a better traffic distribution within an area will reach higher utilization of street capacities. 4. Although we can have better distribution of traffic within an area so as to eliminate its concentration, we can face the problem of congestion due to hazardous movements or spot confusionn This could be

a reflection of the movement characteristics of people and vehicles, and the physical features of roads as well, This goal could be then entitled the elimination of hazardous movement and spot congestion. 5o Although we can reduce the traveling distance and eliminate hazardous movement and congestion as well as finding a better distribution of traffic, we can still face a speed problem. Mechanical characteristics of vehicles, distance between stops, system of ascending or descending the vehicle and the sysftem of fare collection could be incliuded wong those other factors. So, our goal here is the attainment of higher average speed. 6. We can achieve all the above a mentioned goals, but we may be blocked by a short supply of road anda vehicle capaelties to balnee the tra'ffic defmand. A partial solution of a t-ranspo-rtatiot problem may liet in more effective equipment or building elievated roaid ort underground subway's y 70. Proper distribution between modes of transportation is im — portant so as to minimitAi e confutSion, and. the supply of mode'ri equipment is reievrant so as to improve comfoSrt and convenieneec 8. Ptbali trati-portatit n s.hould be provided at titnimum Qcot to the onsum-er,5 buit it should also yield a reasonable profit. -. Bakegroulncd All large c.ities Of tohe" world are becomi'ng increCaingly difficult to li-ve and work in mtainly beaduse- of the problems of physBictl tmove ment. The problem of overcoming the congestion and removing the obstacles to mobility threatens to make the metropolis an economic liability rather than an asset.

-6The crisis in transportation is largely the result of the growing concentration of population together with its economic, cultural, social, and political activities. If the rate of urban growth should continue, more than a fourth of the earth's people will be living in cities of 100,000 or more in the year 2000 and more than half the population by the year 2050. For places of 20,000 or more, the proportions at the two dates would be something like 45 per cent and 90 per cent.(5) In Egypt the degree of urbanization increased from 25 per cent in 1937 to 38 per cent in 1960.(6) Agglomeration of people and activities in urban areas would have been impossible without the mobility and supply lines afforded by dependable and low cost transportationo People tend to concentrate more and more to seek the economic, social and cultural opportunities that urban living ideally provides. But paradoxically, metropolitan areas have now grown to the point where they threat to strangle the transportation that made it possible for them to become establishedo The last several decades have witnessed more revolutionary changes in transportation than all previous history. These transportation advances were due to the rapid improvement in technology. We cannot determine whether people have been more apt to apply changes in technology to transportation than they were to adopt changes demanded by these modifications in transportation; or the techniques for solving problems generated by the advancement of transportation are advancing at a slower rate than the techniques of improving the transport mediao Anyhow, it seems that urban areas have failed to adjust themseves to e changing conditions brought about so rapidly by the technological revolution in transport. The older urban

-7centers, with physical characteristics that were fixed in less changing times, have been staggered by the impacts of recent innovation, and the newer suburbs have compounded the transportation problem by repeating the land use errors of the downtown areasthus creating problems of public administration that suburbs were not designed to meet. Congestion is not a phenomenon solely of our era, nor is it only a Western problem. Congestion has been witnessed in the past as truly as it is now, and it has become a serious barrier to the cities of underdeveloped as well as highly developed nations. Cities everywhere are struggling with similar problems of achieving acceptable standards of urban mobility. Even where automobiles are few, the bus and truck, or the bicycle and horse, or even man driven vehicles combined with excess pedestrians, and sometimes still less modern methods of movement combine to create a degree of chaos comparable to the least penetrable crosstown streets of New York or London, Although the urban transport problem is both long standing and world-wide, its characteristics are not alike everywhereo The problem varies widely among cities of different sizes, ages, types, and locations. Problems of large metropolitan cities are very different from those of smaller towns, and large cities differ widely according to their history, topography, wealth, and function. But the long standing nature of urban traffic congestion and its world-wide scope suggest, despite a variety of forms, that underlying factors may be universal and only partially related to modern methods of transport. Basic causes appear to be excessive crowding of population and economic activity into small areas of land and the disorderly arrangement of land uses that have maximized

-8transport requirements. The great bulk and density of urban buildings and the concentration of employment in the downtown area have created a volume of passenger and freight movement that has become increasingly difficult to accommodate effectively, regardless of the transportation methods utilized. Co The History of Cairo By virtue of its unique location as the meeting point of two continents at the heart of the world and the cross roads joining the East and West, Egypt has played a historic role of utmost importance since ancient times and which, for thousands of years has attracted adventurers, merchants, travelers, historians, and tourists from all parts of the globeo As Egypt has played an important role in the world, Cairo, by virtue of its unique location, has played a similar critical role in the Egyptian history. Arabs were not the first to realize the importance of Cairo's location as the capital of Egypt, which has attracted the attention of every ruler through the historyo This importance stems from the fact that at its site, the Nile diverges its course into two main branches creating the great Delta. So, Cairo s national importance is that it links Upper and Lower Egypt, while its international importance - at least before the construction of the Suez Canal (as it is known today) - is that it lies between the route linking the Mediterranean and the Red Seao The Nile branch "Rositta" joins Cairo with Alexandria on the Mediterranean while it is connected with Suez on the Red Sea by a desert track and a man-made canal. Parallel to these two routes, the first two

'-9main railroads were constructed to replace the water route until the Suez Canal was constructed. It is interesting to mention here that the same routes are still playing a main role of attracting tourists who are passing through the Canal and who find it is a pleasure to leave the ship at Alexandria or Port Said and have a pleasant time in Cairo, and re-board back at Suez or vice versa. Even before the Pharaonic era the early inhabitants of Egypt realized the advantages of Cairo's location, but because the uncontrolled river was frequently changing its course, they feared flood and, therefore, chose a site nearer to the desert. The famous Babylon was the town, located in the district currently called'Misr El-Kadima" (Old Egypt or Old Cairo), to the south of Cairo. This city was dominant just before the Arab conquest of Egypt and was connected with the Red Sea by a canal. Cairo as it is known now was established three centuries after the Arab conquest of Egypt. The Arabs established the city and gave it the name of "Al-Kahira," which is still its name by its native language - Arabic. By the same concept the native name of Egypt as it is pronounced there is "Misr " The following is an outline of the history of the city since its establishment. For a detailed but a brief study of that history I refer to the fine and documented work of the "Planning Commission of Cairo," which has been published in the "Master Plan of Cairo" in 1956. Figure 1 is a vague sketch which may help together with Figure 2 - the existing map of Cairo - in following up the history and development of the city.

-10| \ /EL- FARAG; 1808 - r-l \ — \ 1 ~ — ^ -7 -' -<' /Al - Kh AFTER \ 1900 HELIOPOLIS!\\~~/ /'~1905 / VROAD SHOUBRA EL- FARAG 1808 \ 1808 - I\ ) /~~~ ABBASSIA - _____________ 1849 A \BobEl-Nor oO 1\2-l5 751 0 \9 ^can. AI-Kohir Ei-Zamalik 969 /\ \ ^ f Ismallia / A F T\ E R El-GizaAl-FKotat A Ka86t f itodel of Soladin El-Rooda 1171 868,Icent. 1909,. IL.B o u la641 Eaby-on r.00, Lo Giza Pyrom>d? HELWAN EL- MAADI HELWAN Sphinx \ -'I,,,:J / F-0r.Hsoia a fCio / Figure 1. Historical Map of Cairo.

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-12Al-Fustat The original Arab settlement was Al-Fustat (The Tents) in 641 A.Do ruled by Amr-Ibn El-Aass, who proposed to set up his capital in Alexandria, but the Kalipha ordered him to settle at Al-Fustat due to the strategic position of the site. This was in the neighborhood of the fort of Babylon. Al-Askar In the year 751 A.D. a northeastern city or suburb toward the hills was added. This settlement was the official residence of the governors and their troops, hence named "Al-Askar," which means the continents. In planning this capital they followed the same random settlement pattern as Al-Fustat, with its narrow streets and irregularity. Al-Askar grew till it joined with AlFustat. Al-Katai In the year 868 A.D. Ahmed Ibn Toulun found that Al-Askar and Al-Fustat were over crowded and unfit to accomodate his army and officials, accordingly in the year 870 A.D. he laid the foundations of his new capital city, Al-Katai. This name means the quarters and the city was divided into separate sections, each inhabited by a certain class or ethnic group. This was the first time a definite planning system was used by Arabs in Egypt. Touluns' administration followed the system of straight streets intersecting at right angles, forming a crude gridition plan. The city that evolved

~13. was remarkable for the magnificance of its buildings, but it was completely destroyed by the Abbassides in 905 AoDo with fire so that hardly anything was left of it. Al-Kahira In 969 A.Do General Gawher El-Sickilly of the Fatimides of North. Africa started to lay out the foundations of "Al-Kahira" which means "the conqueror' Al-Kahira included a Kalipha's palace, barracks for the army, stables for the cavalry, government buildings, etc. The site of this city was about 2-1/2 miles north of Al-Fustat and one mile from the Nile. It was enclosed by high walls which encompassed about 400 acreso Studying the plan of this new Fatimid city we easily recognize that this is the same planning principle used by the Romans in the fifth century. The main street of Al-Kahira (Cairo) was called Karabet Al-Kahirao It lead to the gate of Bab El-Nasr at the north where it linked with the main route to Suez and Demietta, and to Bab Zewaila in the south where it linked with the main route to Al-Fustat and Upper Egypt. The lateral secondary streets intersecting the main city street at right angles, were mainly used to divide the different quarters of which the city was composed. The city was a Royal city and Al-Fustat remained the business suburb. Each quarter of the city was assigned to a tribe or racial group that had joined the Fatimid invasion. Among these groups were Greeks, Turks, Berbers and Africans~

-14Cairo Under Later Dynasties The loss of power by the Fatimid Caliphate during the eleventh century and the corruption of Wazirs, "Ministers' of different racial groups resulted in continuous fights and the spread of terror and destruction in the town. Cairo lost its capacity to rule Egypt when the famine of 1066 A.Do, which stayed for seven years, cut off supplies from Cairo. Finally the plague spread death through the town so that the lives of about 200,000 inhabitants were lost. Badr El-Gamaly then took over and forced discipline and order upon the country, and began the reconstruction of Cairo. Al-Fustat continued to be the business district until it was ruined by famine and plague and was finally brought to ashes by the fire set by Shawer in 1168 AoDo at its end of Fatimides. It was then that AL-Kahira became the main commercial city. The great leader salah El-Din, known to Europeans as "Saladin," came into power during the Ayonbide era in 1171 A Do The city owes its form and extent to him since his contributions have been retained until comparatively recent times. Cairo Up to the 16th Century In spite of the Mamlukes' extreme corruption, continuous intrigues, violence and savage cruelty, they, as had their predecessors, possessed a very exquisite taste in material civilization and an admirable devotion to art and architecture which we see in their mosques, schools, temples, etc. The cities' prosperity was

-15enhanced by the transit trade. Two major commercial diagonals of the world; the route from Baghdad to El-Maghreb - North Africa - through Damascus, Sahara Oasis, and Tripoli; and the route from Mediterranean Europe to India and the Far East through Alexandria. The port of BoulackD14 (see Figure 2) was created at the Northwest when the river gradually shifted to the west becoming the main entrance of Cairo from Alexandria. At the same time Boulack became the center of business as well as the residence of people working in commerce, linked to the old city by two roads - each one mile long. Historians' estimates of population range from about 400,000 to 1,000,000 inhabitantso The streets were narrow and the buildings were of three or four stories,each house accommodating not less than one hundred personso From 15th to 19th Centuries After the French invasion of Egypt, the city was accurately described as composed of three distinct parts separated by agricultural land, Cairo the City and two suburbs, BoulackD14 and Misr El-KadimaoD21 The area of Cairo excluding Boulack and Old Cairo, was a little less than five square miles; its average length and breadth being about three miles by one-and-a-half miles, and in no part was it longer than 3-3/4 miles. The population was said to be 300,000 persons. The majority of the streets of Cairo were narrow and without pavements, their average width ranged between 15 and 20 feet. The introduction of carriages by the wealthy Turkish Pashas or Mamluke princes had at later years necessitated

-16that the new streets be wider and more straight. A "Shariah" was a great thoroughfare usually wide enough for the luxurious car-e riages, and generally lined on both sides with. shops especially in the part running through the center of the City. Such shops occupied the ground floor of the houses and a combination of assimilated shops formed a succession of markets or "Suk"o These great streets had not one general name, but many different names, according to the nature of trade, the vicinity of a mosque or the like. Thus, we find Suk El Haddadin and Suk El Ghoriah combined in one street, the first following the trade of occupants of shops and the latter after the name of a neighboring mosque. In Cairo, according to Ali Pasha Mobarak's book, "El-Khetat El-Tawfikiah" there were 26,063 privately owned houses, 12,390 privately owned shops9 528 Rabb9 441 dyeworks, 384 flour-mills, 159 bakeries, 293 wekallas, 83 silk weaving halls, 100 stables, 102 timber sheds and 16 hotelso Mobarak also estimated the number of skilled labors in Cairo at 94,487 including 1610 builders, 689 stonemasons, 589 plasterers (stationers), 27 swordmakers 1053 butchers, 1079 oil manufacturers, 1.50 perfumers and coffee grinders, 1052 fruit sellers, 229 confectioners, 836 barbers, 491 upholsterers, 1231 tailors, 444 curtain makers, 172 shoemakers, 782 bakers, and 126 musicianso Many of the quarters of Cairo were solely inhabited by Moslems, others almost exclusively by Copts or by Greeks, Turkish merchants, and Jews who occupied a western part of the original city, but the streets of their quarters were very narrow and irregular and generally

-17in a very poor condition although they held the sizable share of retail and monetary activities. The quarter of foreigners (Haret El-Efrank) was very small and it had its entrance near El-Mouski, Modern Cairo Modernization movement in Cairo started in the late nineteenth century at the end of the reign of Mohammad Ali Pasha, the builder of Modern Egypt. Before Mohammad Ali, Napoleon's attention was given to the condition of streets and buildings and a provisional building and street regulations act was introduced by him. For military convenience he widened some of the streets and added new squares such Dl as El-Ezbakia Square, El-Faggala Street, Baulak Street, etc. In addition, he removed the Gates which once divided different quarters to simplify his control on the City. The most remarkable improvement made in Cairo by Mohammad Ali was the filling in of all the swamps which were in and around the city. In his time, the overland route, which was known as the Wagham Scheme, between Europe and India through Cairo was developed. His industrial, agricultural and technological revolutions were the essential causes of the growth of Cairo. Mohammad Ali divided Cairo into eight administrative sections: Darb El-Ahmar, Ezbakia, Abdin, Bab El-Shaaria, Misr El-Kodima, Baulak and Darb El-Gamamizo

-18All added districts in the reign of Mohammad Ali and his accessor were intended to fill the gaps between the Old City and the Nile after it changed course or as an extension to the north or northeast, to replace the pools or to inhabit an island. Shubra DistrictD17 In the year 1808 AoDo Mohammad Ali built a palace at Shubra and opened a new street which is now known as Shubra Street linking this new district with Cairo. This was the commencement of a new suburb which grew tremendously in later years. Recently it was divided into two districts known as Shubra and Rode El-FaragD16 which are among the largest and most densely populated districts of Cairoo The Zamaliek DistrictD 5 Islands of Azar, Boulack and Mostafa Aga were linked together and formed Zamaliek Islando In the year 1830 Mohammad Ali built a new palace on this island. After the bridge was constructed this island became one of the best residential areas of Cairo where upper classes as well as foreigners liveo Abbassia DistrictD12 This district was named after Abbass Pasha the First,who was responsible for its development in the year 1849. This district was, at an early date% a combination of the scattered villages of "El-Waylia," El-Demerdash, El-Mohamady and Kobba palace village. These villages grew and were linked together after the addition of GamraD8 and El-SakakiniD8 and now together they constitute one of the largest administrative districts of Cairo.

-19The Ismailia DistrictD15 Ibrahim Pasha, the son of Mohammad Ali, built a palace in the area now called Garden City and Kasr El Dobara, this area is now occupied by embassies and the upper classes. Ismail Pasha the First started to build the district of Ismailia starting from todayst center of the modern part of the city. This large area of land occupies the districts known now as Ismailia (or later Altehrire), TowfikiahD MaaroufD1 Bab ElLukeD18 El-Dowawine,D7 El-Hawayati, El-Kasid, El-Insha,D7 ElMonirah, Kasr El-NileD15 and Kasr El-DobaraoD15 Many facts played their role for the growth of the city during the reign of Ismail; the building of two railway lines to join the capital with Alexandria - the second capital - as well as Suez in 1856 and 1869, respectively. The second fact is that Ismail visited Paris and was impressed by its plans and he tried to adopt similar plans for Cairo in a new district, Ismailian Districto HeliopolisD20 Until the year 1905 Cairo extended only as far as Abbasia to the northeast. On May 23, 1905, Misr and AinShams Electric Railway Company obtained a license from the Egyptian Government with a 70 year lease to build a new town beyond Abassia which they named as Heliopolis or (Masr El-Gedida). Heliopolis covered over 1,000 acres in the 1950's and the paved streets are 600,263 square meterso It was inhabited mainly by foreigners and the upper middle class as well as some of the higher classes.

-20Other Districts There are also other districts which started on the west bank of the Nile recently, such as El-Duki,D23 El-GizaD22 Imbaba.D24 To the south the European District of El MaadyDlO was established and was mainly inhabited by the British. Some Remarks Derived from the History of Cairo 1o Cairo is an old city and it is well known that modernization of an old deteriorated city is more time consuming to achieve and more costly to finance than to establish a new modern city of the same size. This may be one of the reasons why successive rulers of Egypt with an exception of Salah-El-Dini had been inclined to establish new suburbs rather than rebuild the deteriorating districtso This does not mean that Cairo in our present time is not a modern cityo In fact, a good share of the present districts are modern by virtue of the new or modern districts which have been established since the time of Mohammad Ali and Ismail Pashao After the Egyptian revolution in 1952, many cooperative organizations, e.g., the University Staff Cooperative Organization, etc., started to add new and modern housing expansions to the west of the Nile, to the north and to the northeast of Heliopolis, Mokattum City and ElNasr City between Abbassia and Heliopolis. After a few years) many measures have been taken to start the modernization of the old and deteriorated areas. These measures, although they are drastic compared to what has been done previously, they are not sufficient and most of the population of Cairo live in the older sections with higher densities and much lower standards than the newer more modern sections of Cairo. As a matter of fact, housing and modernization of urban areas are a major problem for

-21any growing economy; but Egypt needs to devote most of her capital to industry and agriculture. On the other hand, Cairo is the leading city of the Middle East and Africa; and for this leadership to continue, Cairo should adjust itself to become more efficient by providing a better economic base with greater physical mobility. 2, The idea of having a Royal City or District rather than a unified city dominated the minds of most of the Egyptian rulers, and led to the long negligence of most of the city's districts. 3o Cairo through its long unfortunate history, witnessed successive disastrous events summarized as: frequent invasions, frequent corrupt governors and selfish feudalists, and famines as well as serious diseases. Frequent invasions were accompanied by serious destructions, the invasions created long term unstability, and destructions made the catastrophes continuous. In addition, every invasion meant that the population was forced to reside in new areas away from the ruins. Frequent changes of governors, a phenomena continued up until 1954, did not leave a fair opportunity for most of the respective governments to establish reform programso The corruption of many of Cairo's governors in the past, parallel to the selfishness of the feudalists, lowered the city's modernization and created discriminatory improvements, a matter which has its drawbacks regarding the city as a whole. Famine and diseases once took about 200,000 lives as well as spread terror in all parts of the city. 4. Nonhomogeneity of the population origins together with discriminatory policies, created differences in culture and behavior among the inhabitants of Cairo. Poverty and nonexistence of stable democratic

-22institutions caused by frequent invasions made the masses lose confidence in themselves and were unwilling to participate in activities concerning the society which created a gap between the people and the government. President Nasser described this society very accurately at the beginning of the revolutionary era in his book, "The Philosophy of the Revolution. " "I sometimes consider the state of an average Egyptian family, one of the thousands of families which live in the capital of the countryo The father, for example, is a turbanned fellah - a thoroughbred country fellow, The mother is a lady of Turkish descent. The sons and daughters attend schools respectively following the English and French educational systems - all this in an atmosphere in which the thirteenth century spirit and twentieth century manifestations interact and intermingle' "I see all this and feel in my heart of hearts that I know the cause of this perplexity which is torturing our minds and this confusion which is destroying our very existence. I would then say to myself, surely our society will crystallize; surely it will be solidified; surely it will be welded into a strong homogeneous wholeo "IE had imagined that our role was that of a Command's advance guard, and that it would last only a few hours, when the holy march of the whole nation advancing in close orderly ranks to the great goal would follow.. o" jut the facts I faced after July 23 took me by surprise. The leaders had accomplished their mission. They stormed the strongholds of oppression, dethroned the despot and stood awaiting the holy march in close orderly ranks to the great goal. They waited long, however. The masses did come. But how different are facts from fiction! "Every man we met sought nothing but the destruction of another man. And every idea we heard aimed at nothing but the demolition of another idea. Indeed had we acted on all that we heard we would have destroyed all men and demolished all ideas, and would have been left with nothing else to do but to sit among the dead men's bones and the debris, crying over our misfortune and blaming our bad luck." In traffic forecasting the riding habit of the society concerned should be known, but seeing the history of our society I could

-23not even imagine any directional path of the people's behavior which could be called traditional. Dr. Mo El-Barbary, the general manager of "Organization of Public Transport of Cairo," emphasized this point when I met him in August, 1963. On the other hand I believe that very soon we will have a crystallized and clear behavior because the vast change in the society, due to the new unified educational system, the nondiscriminatory policies which created discipline and equality among all groups has caused many large groups, of foreigners, who were backed with many unusual privileges, to leave Egypt. Concerning the gap between the government and the masses, who have to carry on certain functions to lighten the burden on the governor's shoulders, this gap still exists and it seems that it will continue. So a prior assumption that the Cairo transport problem has to be solved in the government's quarters still holds true. The trend is unfortunate and should be stopped by any means and the masses have to carry out the functions which are their responsibility. 5. Types of markets or "shopping centers" which existed in early days were of different character than the Western markets. A complete block or blocks were devoted to occupants of the same trade after which the street or part of it was named. We found El-Sakkariaya or the market of sugar; El-Nahhassin where copper ware was sold; El-Haddadin or the market of blacksmiths; El-Sagha or the market of gold and silversmiths, and so on. These markets were separated and they are still existing in the old part of the city where the central business district is located. Now they function as a wholesale market as well as retail markets for the low income groups, the majority of the inhabitants of this areao

Because of their narrow streets and their significant attraction of a large crowd, traffic congestion is very serious during the day not only within the market streets but also in all roads leading to them. Of course, this kind of business clustering is existing in most, if not alla the large cities of the world, especially around their respective CoBoDo areas where for example, finance houses or international transportation agencies, or the like, gather in a certain area to gain some economy. The new western CoBoDo of Cairo may have started since Ismail Pasha, when:he built Ismailia Di-strict but on the other hand, the shopping centers as they are known especially in the United States of America) do not exist in Cairo. More will be said about this particular problem later in this papero 6. The problem of traffic congestion has been around since the existence of the cityo Narrow and irregular streets, improper planning for the whole city, late existence of rules and regulations for buildings and movements, etc. were responsible for the accumulation of the existing unsolved traffic problems. Clinmate of Cairo The climate of the Egyptian. providence is gently warm in the winter and hot but dry in the summero Thus, it enjoys a wonderful climate by winter and unannoyable weather in the summer due to a. low degree of humidityo Cairo lies between two distinct climatic regions. The first region extends from the shores of the Mediterranean to the north of Cairoo

-25This region enjoys the general Mediterranean climate which is designated by its warm and rainy winter and comfortably hot and dry summer. The second region includes the rest of the country south of Cairo, It is designated by the desert climate except for a narrow strip of cultivated land on the two banks of the River Nileo Winter is characterized by scarce rain, warm weather during the day and relatively cool during the nighto The summer is hot and dry during the day and moderate in temperature at night. A clearer idea about the climate of Cairo relative to that of the rest of the country is presented in Table Io The predominant surface winds come from the northern and northwestern sectionso The wind changes direction from the northern part of the country to south and southwest during the passage of the atmospheric depressions in the Mediterraneano The wind also changes direction all over the country during the "Khamasiniah" winds in April, May and June. These winds usually carry dust and hot air from the desert, and occur for a duration of two or three dayso The speed of the winds is not significanto Ep Population Analysis Since the beginning of the twentieth century, Egypt's population has experienced accelerating rates of growth, these rates jumped from 1.2% per year in the period between 1927 and 1937 to 1.9% per year and 2.85% per year in the periods between 1937 and 1947 and 1947 and 1960 respectively. On the other hand, Cairo's population growth rates were increasing slightly at the beginning of the century and sharply since the

-26TABLE I RELATIVE LOCATION AND CLIMATIC CONDITION OF CAIRO AND SOME OTHER CITIES7) Avg. Temperature. Latitude Longitude Altitude Rain Fall Humidity Avg. Min. Avg. Max. City North East (m) m.m./yr. % C~ F~ C~ F~ Port Said 31~ 17' 32~ 14' 1 71.4 71 12.3 54 29.8 86 Alexandria 31~ 12' 290 57' 2 190.6 70 10.0 50 30 0 86 Cairo 30~ 08' 31~ 24' 68 23.8 55 9.4 49 35.0 95 Asuit 27~ 11' 31~ 06' 68 0.6 38 7.4 45 37.2 99 Aswan 24~ 02' 320 53' 111 1.0 31 10.8 51 41.6 107 TABLE II CAIRO'S POPULATION GROWTH AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS* Pop. of Increase of Pop. of Cairo Urban Pop. Pop. of Cairo Alexandria Cairo's Pop. as Census as %oPop of Pop as of as f a % of % of Increase Year of Egypt Egypt Pop. Urban Pop. Urban Pop. of Urban Pop. 1882 5.9 19 26.1 18.0 -- 1897 6.1 20 30.0 16.0 34.7 1907 6.1 19 31.6 16.5 43.7 1917 6.2 21 29.5 16.6 21.2 1927 7.5 23 32.5 17.5 46.3 1937 8.2 25 32.9 17.2 34.6 1947 11.0 31 35.4 15.6 40.7 1960 13.0 38 34.0 15.3 31.3 *Reduced from Table I, II and III in Appendix A. TABLE III MIGRATION TO CAIRO VS. URBAN AREAS Pop. if Nat. Growth Urban Cairo Growth Rates are Applied Migration Pop. Pop. Rates of Urban Cairo Urban Cairo Cairo Mig. 100 Year (000) (OO) Egypt (000)s (000)s (000)s (000)s Urban Mig. 1917 2,678 791 -- -- -- -- 1927 3,270 1,065 1.1 2,973 878 297 187 63 1937 3,983 1,312 1.2 3,662 1,193 321 119 37 1947 5,897 2,091 1.9 4,740 1,561 1,157 530 46 1960 9,912 3,736 2.85 7,578 3,493 2,334 243 10

-27start of World War II, see Table I, Appendix A. The rates were 1.5% per year up to 1907 while they were 6.1% per year between 1947 and 1960. Comparing Cairo's population to the country's population, we find that Cairo is becoming more and more important as its share of population has increased from 5.9% before the beginning of the century to 6.2% in 1917, to 8.2%, 11.0% and 13.0% in 1937, 1947, and 1960, respectively, as shown in Table IIo While Cairo is now slightly less than one-sixth of the country's population, it makes up more than one-third of the total urbanized population in Egypt. Its share of urban areas is also increasingranging from 26.1% in 1882 to 37.7% in 1960; but it could be seen from the last column of the table that Cairo's share of the increases as a percentage of total urban increase dropped from 40.7% in 1947 to 31.3% in 1960. This column also indicates that Cairo's share of increase to the total urban increase is fluctuating according to the opening of new areas and activities in the other urban areas of the country.* In both the urban areas and Cairo, if population in respective periods are multiplied by the country's natural growth rates and then subtracted from the actual increase, we can obtain an estimate of the net flow of immigrants for both areas as indicated in Table IIIo We observe then that between 1917 and 1927, 63 persons out of 100 migrants leaving their villages or small towns to inhabit an urban area, choose Cairo as their preference. This * Although there is a difference of natural growth rates between urban and rural areas which will change the figures shown in Table III, the abstracted idea of migration distribution is qualitatively but not quantitatively valuable.

-28preference dropped to approximately 50% between 1927 and 1937. In the last period, 1947 to 1960, only 10 out of 100 migrants chose Cairo. Other urban areas are becoming more important than before by offering new activities which are mainly concentrated along the sea shore at Alexandria, Port Said, Dimiatta, Ismailia and Suez. Since urban poqp lation is increasing with accelerating rates, and while Cairo's share of that increase is getting less and less in percentage, we can conclude that Cairo's relative importance is declining, although it will continue as the most important city in Egypt, and we must expect the rise of other important centers challenging Cairoo One of the most critical problems we have to face in this study is the prediction of Cairo's population within our forecasting periods. In its "Master Plan of Cairo" the Cairo Planning Commission in November 1956, stated that its members strongly believe that Cairo's population will be 4-1/4 million in the year 2000, while the census of 1960 indicated that the population of Cairo in 1960 was approximately 3.4 million. In fact, this large deviation of the estimates of the Commission from expectations make us very cautious in our estimates. As any individual can see, the Commission attributed the recent high growth rates too 1) the increase of the natural growth rate of the country; 2) the outburst of World War IIo The presence of the Allied Armies in Cairo made it possible for the city to supply these armies with many of their service needs. Many employment opportunities thereby opened up causing a rush of migration to Cairo; 3) Cairo is the capital city of a pre-industrialized country, and traditionally it attracts centralization alsr of activities as well as offering to the immigrant a higher standard of livings

-29In predicting the future population, the Commission found that: 1. By simple mathematical calculations and by assuming that the high growth rate of 1937 through 1947 will continue, Cairo will have approximately ten million inhabitants within 50 years. The Commission concluded that this figure was not reasonable and was beyond realism. 2. If they omit the high rates between 1937 and 1947 and use averages, the figure would be reduced to seven million which was, in the Commission's opinion, an unrealistic figureo 3. By curvelinear projection the Commission came to a 5-1/2 mill. figure, but again felt it to be too high. 4. Neglecting immigration and adjusting birth and death rates to balance each other after advancement had been achieved under the New Regime, the Commission believed that the figure would be 4-1/4 million, but it concluded that Cairo's population should be limited to 3-1/2 million. The first assumption of the Commission was "oo we have reasons to believe that the elements of immigration will have little effect on the future number of population. From the above mentioned reasons, we can safely deduce that the immigration to Cairo, which was one of the main causes for the past increase in its population, will decrease if not checked." The reasons were: 1) the unusual increase between 1937 and 1947 amounting to 60% due mainly to the war conditions which no longer exist, thus eliminating the possibility of the continuity or repetition of such an increase; 2) the improvement of living conditions in the villages and other towns that will reduce immigration to the capital city; 3) decentralization policy as well as the opening of new industrial zones which will also attract and absorb these immigrants.

-30On the other hand the Commission also assumed that the improvement of cultural as well as living standards, especially among the blue-collar class, would lead to lower birth rates which at least would balance the increase caused by declining death rates~ Due to the high densities and the complete deterioration of many districts, the Commission desired to limit Cairo's population to 3-1/2 million because of "..othe fact that too large a city is undesirable both socially and economically, as it tends to become a heavy burden in the means of the Municipality or the authority responsible for the serviceso.," Commenting briefly on the Commission's conclusions and assumptions without diminishing the contributions of its members, I can openly say that they were too optimistic and behaved emotionally. They believed that decentralization meant an even distribution of activities regardless of uneven distribution of resources, a matter which has been challenged in the field of "location and space economics." A village or a town cannot prosper if it has an insufficient economic base to accommodate its population. The members did not make a comprehensive survey of the country and its potentials which led them to conclude that immigrants will be absorbed locally or in areas other than Cairoo Migration to cities is a phenomena dominating changes of the 19th and 20th centuries. The excess people of a base area should move to another area which can offer them accommodations. Their movement is useful to them as well as to those who have to stay in the mother land. This movement should be studied for the whole country on the basis of potentialities so that we can "safely conclude" how many should settle in Cairo and how many in other areas and where these other areas should be located.

-31The Commission's members believed then that the New Regime had magical properties which would improve the culture and the economy of the country within a day or so, and hence they did not ask themselves the question about what will happen while these changes are taking place, how long will it take to bring death and birth rates into equilibrium, Obviously they were quite sure that population equilibrium could be reached by a communique from the New Regimeo We conclude therefore that an essential part of defining our transportation problem will be the forecasting of Cairo's population as well as the population of other urban areas, io.e, to discuss the future of urbanization in Egypt so as to foresee the possible growth of Cairo which will determine, with other factors, the volume of traffic generated by its population. However, since the volume of traffic is also affected by the intercity traffic we have to have a complete picture of the population of other major urban areas of the country. Fo Anatomy of Cairo Metropolitan Area Shape of the City The city of Cairo is characterized by a very unusual shape (see Figure 1). It extends more than 43 Km. from south to north along the east side of the Nile, while its width varies from 5.9Km. at the suburb of Helwan, to 0.4 Kmn north of Helwan, and 4.7 Kn. at the C B.D. to 17 Km. at Heliopolis to the north of Cairo. The existence of the mountains to the east has limited Cairo's width and forced extension to the south and northeast. A very large area adjacent to these mountains has been reserved for cemeteries because of its dry sandy soil.

-32On the western bank of the Nile and adjacent to the heart of Cairo, exists the city of El-Giza where the University of Cairo is located, (D22, D23, D25 on Figure 2.) To the north of El-Giza the district of ImbabaD24 is established. These two urban areas are under the jurisdiction of the Governorate of El-Giza. This area has much closer ties with the CoBoD. than Heliopolis, Helwan15 and ElMaadido10 To the north of Cairo and on the eastern bank of the Nile, the highly industrialized suburb of Shoubra-El-Khima was established before the New Regime took over. This suburb has always been under the jurisdiction of the municipality of Cairo, but now it belongs to the Governorate of El-Kaliobiao Although the political boundaries of the Governorates as well as the districts of Cairo have been recently changed, I believe that these boundaries do not reflect the social interactions that take placeo For example, it would have been a better idea if El-Giza had been added to Cairo because of their firm ties, while Helwan should become the Capital of the Governorate of El-Giza, the name of which could be changed to the Government of Helwan or any other suitable description of the territory. Most of the heavy industry of not only Cairo but also Egypt is now located in El-Maadi and Helwan, but most of the laborers and professionals working in these industries still live in Cairo and commute to their work everyday, although the suburb of Helwan has an international reputation as a winter resort where mineral water exists. Helwan's reputation is widely known in Europe, and it also contains a national park where many people from Cairo spend their holidays. Therefore,

-33Helwan has as great a potential for serving as a capital of a Governorate as any large city in any other Governorate, Sex Distribution Although for the country as a whole the number of males to the total number of population is about 50.3% which means an almost even sex distribution, The ratio in Cairo rises slightly to 51,2%. The difference should be due to t;he male migrants leaving their families for new opportunities in Cairoo It indicates also that a good share of migrants are females as well as males. TABLE!I V\ SEX 1)ISTRIBUTSION IN 1960 Dist. % of Dist. % of Dist, % of Dist. % of Disto % of No. Males No. Males No Males No, Males No. Males 1 5336 6 511 1 1 5 52.2 16 51 0 21 50. 5 2 51.5 7 50.8 12 50.8 17 51.7 22 50 9 3 51.4 8 52. 4 13 50.9 18 51. 0 3 50,2 4 51.2 9 51.2 14 51 4 19 50. 8 24 50.7 5 5s0.8 10 543 15 52.3 20 49.8 25 51.1 26 5S.6 From th e prevous table we note that E!-MMa:adiD10 axnd El-Azbakia have the highest male percentage indicating high percentage of male migration. The former is identified by the existence of heavy industry, and the latter by its closeness to thfe main railway station since migrants locate themselves near the route to their families as * Reproduced. from Table LV in Appendix A.

-34well as near the route to all activities of the city. D26 The third highest percentage is Shoubra El-Khima to the north of Cairo which has two locational advantages, first its identification as an area with many industries, and secondly its existence on the main road to the Delta of the Nile from where most of the migrants come. The fourth is El-Daher, an intermediate location between the main railway station, the military area, and Ain-Shams University. The fifth is Helwan which also contains many industries. The sixth is El-Moski where the University of Al-Azhar is located. Most, if not all, of its students are males, the majority being religious students from outside Cairo and from other Moslem countrieso The other districts have balanced sex ratios. Age Distribution From the pyramid of age distribution of both. Egypt and Cairo, Figure 3, we notice that this distribution is not abnormal for a country like Egypto On the male side of the pyramid we see that up until age 14, there are more males in the country,expressed as percentage of the total males,than the same percentage in Cairo. This is explainable, since the birth rate is higher in the country than in Cairo,we should expect that this age group of both males andi females of 0 to 16 years should be higher in Egypt than in Cairo, and since the percentage of males is higher in general than females by 0.6% then,we expect that our figure of Cairo to be less than of Egypto The age groups from 19 to 49 have higher percentages in Cairo than in Egypt. This could be explained by the fact that college students

-35- For Cairo I \ I -14-9 19-54 I I i I I 9-14 4-9 0-4 i I I ~'I I 1 1 [ I [ I 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0 0 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Percent of Age Group in Sex Group From Table No.5, Appendix A Figure 3. Age Distribution Pyramid of Cairo.

-36leave their towns to continue their academic career in Cairo where three universities exist, and in addition there are the migrants seeking employment in construction and industry. Above 49, Egypt again has a higher percentage than. Cairo, indicating that the life span of urban communities may be less than that of the rural; but it is very likely that after retirement many of the migrants like to spend the rest of their life in their home villages. On the female side,the country's percentage is practically the same as that of Cairo for age groups up to 9 years. For other groups between 9 and 29 years9 the percentage is less in the country than in Cairo. This may be due to the fact that most of the middle as well as upper class families of Cairo and large cities employ female servants who live with them. These servants come from rural areas and usually stay until they get married, when they are 20 to 25. This servant migration pattern although it has dominated the Egyptian tradition for a long time, is now declining due to both female education and new opportunities made available by the industrial revolution. Population Density Tables VI and VII, Appendix A,indicate the density (in number of persons/sqo Kmi) of the large divisions (districts) of Cairo as given by the 1960 census. Figure 4 indicates the density distribution of small subdivisions of Cairo (in number of persons/acre) as I calculated it using the exact population figures of these subdivisions and their approximate areas. It should be noted here that densities are given in gross and not by net*terms. * Net density. No. of persons per the purely residential area in acres used, including half the width of the fronting streetso

-37---------— 7 r1 — X/ X\ I~~~~ ~ ~ \-~ -—'I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,.,-\ /.-...- / /' /'A (-' I /-' y; / — ^..-L,,/W')^"J,.i-' /.~— II /' IL- *S^^;J * /' I 3,>./ I! \\ 4 \' 3 i. -'* i. /^/33*.>3'3*- *-* ~~~,C-'''"-j- i -' 13' Ji/,..,. *~ -3'3 /~'~~'; ~<'-," *_~jI~ /*i._.. -. ___________________________________ 3-' ",s "-...*.... Y- ~ ~ ~ ~ \.....,,, ~ P —4 —7 —: — \ \ /m ^ ^ m\~~~~~~~ V., \'. x v-^-'T~ s~vI f; 3' -1 \ +,' +'.,'., ",,, \\t ^ ^'"' V1/ ^ -^^ —A TO i'Y~~~~~~~~~~~-AX, ~,< /' i ^'x~ l —. "",..../..,\,' -'- i \..+' +. + POPULATION DENSITY DISTRIBUTION FOR CAIRO M.P.A. 1960 Lriii.-~ ~ io 11/ ~~~~~~E3-~'',' \'y^ Produced from U.A.R. Dept. of Census Publication - 1960 S ~-i\I\ Figure.. Population Density Distribution for Cairo M.P.A. (1960). I 14/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 ~ V'/'..............' ~'"0" ~'~''~~'~.'J" /',~,~ "'%. %~~~~~/~,t.,:...,......':','"...''I.':"'','.,',,,./.... q';:..................,..... I ~':.~-..':F';..':.'~ "-',$,.... ~.(.......... I'.;......',".","~.... —';"' - -' 1000 ~ ~ ~ ~'-/, "; -'i A':;~':~~,~<~'~~ F: ~?'.;,',;","' ~.,~.<".~" ~~~,,r":~,-:~',: ~'' x /~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~+ + % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~.. 1..:.:.,, I ~:',., - ~.;'':" "~.'.'~''. t'v":i.".,'.''," k'~ ~,;.,..... ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1+ +.......:,.,.~;,?"~A','!,?,'~.,......./..., ~.,,.....,..:,,,.......,'. ~'~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~+ +,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.....+,,,,!:~~~~~~~~~Cnme.....t ap POPULTIONDENSIY DITRIBTION ORCIRO.P......... 1960'~' 5, /i:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5-5 P r c uc -clf om U A R- a t- f a su P 6I en io 19 6'-503'

-38Anyhow, these densities together with the number of persons per room* can give a vague but close enough idea if they are analyzed carefully. Population density of Cairo was 7,957, 11,704, and 15,634 persons per square Kmn, in the years 1937, 47 and 60 respectively, while the density for Egypt was 463,540 and 724 for the same years. In the United States the density for the country was 51 persons per square mile in the year 1950, the highest density found in New York City where it was 24,537 persons per square mile, i.e., 9,450 per square Km. The highest density in New York is at Manhattan which was 88,000 per square mile, i.e., 34,000 per square Km., while it was in Bab El-ShariyahD13 of Cairo 112,182 per square Km. in 1947 and 139,210 square Km. in 1960. Number of persons per room was 1.9 in 1960 for the country and 2.3 for Cairo. The highest figure was in BoulakD14 3.1. An attempt was made to discover the residential movements and migration settlements in Cairo; Table VIII in Appendix A was constructed and the method is explained there. Since the political divisions have been recently changed, the new divisions cannot be analyzed and are omitted from the table. We recognize from the table that El-Mouski, which was once the heart of the old C.B.D. of Cairo, lies within the (-,-) group (final stage) for the two periods 1937-1947 and 1947-1960, indicating an outbound movement of a part of its inhabitants. Perhaps the newly highschool, institute or college graduates were seeking a better life in other areas. * Methods of defining rooms are not given.

-39El-Azbakia, El-Gamalia, El-Darb El-Ahmer and Bab El-Sheria (D1, D2, D4, and D13)9 which were once the outer ring of the Old C.B.Do has now moved to D1 and the new district Kasr El-Nile D19, Dl, D2, D4 and D13 were in the (+, - ) group (second stage) in the period 1937-47, they then reached their final stage in the period 1947-60. The old CoB.Do (exists in Dll, D1, D2, D4 and D13) is now dominating the wholesale activities as well as such special trades as gold, copper, etc., and the retail sale for lower income classes. AbdinD18 and Rod El-Farag16 are still in their first stage (+, +), they showed this trend in the last two periods. Abdin should have passed this stage to the intermediate one due to its close contact to both old and new CoB.Do as well as the government buildings in "Lazoghly;" but since the average persons per family in D18 is 1.9, while for Cairo it is 2,3, then we can accept the above inferences. Although the low figure may be due to the existence of many stores and offices in the area and the vague definition mentioned before. El-Saida ZeinabD7 has been in the second stage for the two periods even though it includes the main government office, but due to new openings created in the last period by some large scale renewals, it may take another period to reach its final stage. El-WayliD12 has passed from the first stage to the second in the period 1947-60. Therefore, D18, D7, D12, D14 and D16 as well as a part of D2 and D3 make up the intermediate ring of the city and they should be now approaching their final stage of oversaturation. Masr El-Kadima, after long negligence, has witnessed a renewal and new extension program which brought it back to the first stage.

-40D17 D20.D3 Shaubra, Heliopolis, El-Khalipa and Masr El-Kadima (by their old definition) are the most open areas which can receive new migration from outside Cairo. They make up the outer ring of the city. To this group El-Giza, Imbabah, El Maadi, Helwan, El-Zaytoun and ElMataria should be included in the immediate future. Culture There is no doubt that Cairo is the cultural center as well as the capital of the country. While literacy in Egypt is about 30%, it rises in Cairo to about 54%. Moreover, the literate people in Cairo constitute 30% of the total of the country. Persons holding university degrees in Cairo are 55% of the whole of the country, although the population of the city is about 14% of the population of the county. () Out of a total of five universities in Egypt, three of the largest are located in Cairo. Its population has greater access to cultural life, e.g., museums, libraries, theaters, radios and television sets. The following table shows this fact although it does not include the whole country, but.includes the two adjacent Governorates which are better off than most of the other Governorates. TABLE V CULTURAL IMAGE OF CAIRO AS COMPARED WITH TWO OTHER GOVERNORATES1) Families Persons Families No. of People per per per Books in No. of No. of Going to Governorate T.V. Set T.V. Set Radio Set Libraries Readers Theaters Theaters Museums (i) Cario 23 108 2 1,957,132 1,320,907 97 29,452 20 (ii) El-Giza 46 223 5 483,987 304,487 16 1,666 (iii) El-Kaliobiyah 1,203 6,015 19,659 19,659 9 515 3 (i) Only the Governorate of Cairo from D1 to D21. (ii) Including among others D22, D23, D24 and D25. (iii) Including among others D26.

,-4lHigh percentage of literacy in Cairo is found around the new CBoDo. and near Cairo and Ain-Shams Universities.* The group of districts having from 60 to 75% literacy (the highest) ares El-Azbakia Abdin, Kasr El-Nile, Kism Giza (2) and El-Saieda Zienab around the new CoB.Do and government buildings. Kism Giza (1), Kism Giza (2), Saieda Zeinab and Kasr El-Nile have the University of Cairo and some government offices between them. Heliopolis and El-Daher have Ain-Shams University between them, while Heliopolis includes a new CoBoDO and government offices. Persons holding University degrees in general,inhabit the new modern sub-areas of the intermediate and new districtso Culture centers then are focal points to which a large and seasonal daily traffic is attracted from everywhere in the city and its suburbs. For single students living in Cairo it is much easier for them to live near their cultural center; as a matter of fact, this has been found trueo Other students living with their families in Cairo or elsewhere have tuhe freedom of choosing the most accessible and agreeable site or location, for example, where minimum transport is needed. It occasionally happens that students live within walking distance of the University of Cairo at El-Giza but their grades force them to be enrolled in the University of Ain-Shams at El-Wayli, thus increasing unnecessary movement in the city, Government buildings on the other hand are focal points of a fairly constant daily traffic. Usually cultural people dominating the * See Tables IX in Appendix Ao

-42.upper middle and higher classes do not have to be located around their daily work. Their location choice is a prestige choice based on a site, weather or relative locations, while lower and middle classes (not well educated) have their locational choice as an economic one,and by virtue they surround the government buildingso Public mass transport is the dominating means of transport in Egypt as well as in Cairo, and even though it represents a small percentage of the moving traffic when it is calculated as number of vehicles per hour at any location in the city. The private automobile and the taxi are then the dominating systems which. affect the traffic movement. The origin and destination of these transport systems are found to be of the CoBoDo districts on one hand, and the districts of the high degree of literacy (and in turn the high level of income and prestige)~ The frequency of movement per day or per week of educated people is higher then that of less educated people as will be shown clearly in Chapter IVo Economic Activity As was mentioned earlier, the population of Cairo constituted about 16% of Egypt's population in 1960, but it swallows about one third of the nation's activities other than agriculture. In manufacturing it has 33% of the nation's workers although it has only 20% of its factories. (8) In construction it has 34% of the workers, in electricity 40%, in trade 26%, in transport 29%, in services 34%, in mining only 13%, and 0.43 in agriculture.* * Calculated from tables in the "Regional Census," 1960 Census, See Tables X, XI and XII, Appendix Ao

_43For the Cairo area, about 66% of the population who are eligible to enter the labor force* do not work or have no economic activity, although official unemployment is only 1.6%. This high percentage of nonactive members of the society is due to the fact that students enrolled up to the end of the high school are included and constitute about 25% of that total. And due to that, only 8% of the females of Cairo who are eligible to work are economically active (constituting only 4% of the total; males are 30% of that total)o Economically, active females of Cairo are 22-1/2% of the active females of the countryo Kasr El-NileDl9 has an extremely high percentage of active persons (48%), this attributing to the high percentage of literacy in this district (74.6%)o Comparing Table IX and X, Appendix A, we can see the high correlation between the distribution of active members and the degree of literacy, we notice also a similar correlation with. the distribution of active femaleso Turning to Tables X and XI, in Appendix A. for the functional distribution of active members of Cairo, we are able to discover the relation between the place of work and the place of residency, Farmers are concentrated in El-Mataria,D9 Shoubra El-KhimaD26 to the north of the city at its connection with the fertile Nile-Delta. To the south of the city, there is another concentration of farmers in HelwanD15 and El-Maadi.D10 In fact these four districts, although they attract a specially high class of families (except Shoubra El-Khima), * Those above six years oldo All percentages mentioned here are calculated from 1960 censuso

-44still contain typically rural communities. Most, if not all, of these farmers live on the land which they cultivate. Other districts, which include relatively high percentage of farmers, have in fact some small farms or gardens publicly or privately owned. These agriculture workers in the internal districts may be identified as land owners who prefer urban living, or gardeners who take care of the privately owned gardens in the well-off districts, or some public gardens which do not exist in poor districts. So we expect that a good share of the last group of farmers move daily from one district to another in order to work. However, they constitute less than 40% of all agriculture workers of Cairo. Mining (for construction materials) by nature should be in the desert and eastern mountains, we find the concentration of mining workers in the districts of El-MaadiDlO then Helwan,D15 El-Wayli1D2 and ElKhalifaD3 We can then conclude that more than 50% of the mining workers live close to their work, while less than 50% have to make two trips dailyo Electrical workers have their highest concentration in El-SahelD6 Road El-Farog,16 BoulakD1 and ShoubraD17 where the old and new power stations are located, These five districts attract slightly less than 50% of electricity workers; they are located to the north and northwest of the city. To the south are the main power stations feeding heavy industry and the electric railway line "Cairo-Helwan," but the three southe tern districts D21, D10 and D15 attract only 92 of the total workers engaged in the electricity industry. Most of the districts have less than 0.25% of their population above six years engaged in electricity.

-45Transportation workers have higher concentration in El-SahelD6 Shoubra,D17 Road El-FaragD16 Boulakl14 and. E-WayliD12 These five districts contain about 49% of total workers in transport. El-Wayli has the main tramway (streetcar) yard from which they are distributed in the morning to most of the tramway network, also this is the nearest district that blue-collar types engaged in transportation in Heliopolis can occupy due to the high value of property in Heliopolis. The other four districts surround the main railroad station leading to Upper and Lower Egypt, the railroad yards, the railroad repair and maintenance work shops, the main intercity bus destinations of Lower Egypt, the intercity taxi destinations and the main intracity bus garage, repair and maintenance work shops. Persons engaged in manufacturing, trade, and services are evenly distributed between districts indicating that a larger number of districts need their inhabitants to have a fair chance to be engaged in these three activities of which - in fact - a certain minimum should be maintained to support the population. For example, bakeries, food stores, and schools representing the three activities respectively should be quite evenly distributed in proportion to population. The six districts which include the highest percentages of the workers engaged in manufacturing are D6, D7y D13, D14, D17 and D26. They have about 42% of the total with an average of 7% eacho The next six districts are D2, D39 D4, D7 and D16 which have 32% of the total with an average of 5.3% each. Industries which employ large number of workers per firm are concentrated in Shouboa El-KhimaD26 El-Sahl D HelwanD15 El-MaadiD10 and El-Materia,D9 although the three former districts have attracted only 9^ of the total with an average of 3% each. Astonishing

-46enough Imbaba24 carrying the name of "The City of Labors" where a complete new area was rebuilt in a somewhat modern fashion and devoted to blue-collar residence, has only 3.5% of the manufacturing workers representing only 7~7% of the districts population of more than six years of age, while services account for 12.5% of that population. In trade D6, D7, D12, D14, D16 and D17 have 42% of total persons engaged in trade in the city, while D2, D4, D13 and D21 have only 21%, with an average of 7% and 5% each for the two groups respectively. Districts containing the CoB.D. are Dl, D2, D4, Dll, D15, D18 and D19 have only 25% of the total with an average of 3.6% each. Trade is dominating none of the 26 districts like manufacturing does in El-Gamaliyah,D2 Bab El-Shariyah,13 HelwanD15 and Shoubrah El-Khima.D26 Employment in services is dominating the activities of 22 out of 26 districts. El-SaidaD7 and El-WayliD12 have an average of 8.4% of services employment. Both have a large population with large educational centers as well as government buildings, especially El-Saida ZeinabD7 El Sahel,D6 Road El-FaragD16 and ShoubraD17 to the northwest, HeliopolisD10 to the northeast and Masr El-KadimaD21 to the south which has an average of 6.1% eacho Also they have a large population, they do not possess large government buildings, although Heliopolis is building up some centers this decade. We expect, therefore, that a massive flow of traffic will be generated in the northwest, northeast, and south which will move toward the government buildings in Abdin,D18 Kasr El-Nile, El-Saida Zeinab, and El-Azbakia at the center. This is actually what is happening and will D22 P23 be seen later on. Kism Gizah (1) and Kism Gizah (2)3 have an average of 4.o8 each. On the other hand we find that 33% of the population of

-47Kasr El-NileD19 and 26% of HeliopolisD20 and Kism Gizah (2)D23 population with ages higher than six years of age are engaged in services. Three of these districts have the highest income sector groups of the city. Income Distribution and Land Values There is no one district which is dedicated completely to the high income group, although there are many districts which are devoted completely to the residence of low income people, such as El-Mouski, Bab El-Sharia, and El-Gamalia. Major area of Heliopolis, Garden-City and El-Zomalik in Kasr El-Nile, El-Agoza and Madinet El-Awkaf in Kism Giza (2); El-Nile Street in Kism Gizah (1); Ahram Street (the route to the Pyramides) in Kism El-Ahram; part of El-Rodah-Island and the modern part in El-Maadi; El-Mokattam City in El-Khalifa; El Kobbah in El Wayli; part of El-Zaitoun and El-Matoria, all of these areas contain residence of the highest income groups, usually surrounded by the upper middle class, then the middle class and finally by the lower income class. El-Saida Zeinab, El-Wayli, El-Azbakia, Kism Gizah (2), Masr El-Kadima, Shoubrah, El-Sahel are inhabited by a variety of the middle and lowerincome classes with a small percentage of the upper middle class. Figure 5 shows income class distribution. The method used to construct this map is explained later in Chapter III; Residential land value follows the same pattern of the income distribution. Commercial land value presents another pattern, it increases along the busy streets of the old as well as the new C.B.D. districts. These streets have the highest traffic densities in number of passengers

-48/ I'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~V INCOME LEVEL 1960 ^^ UPPER CLASS MIDDL CLASS"10 ""1^^^ IIAELUSIZ 25t-3OO/o IV K^ LOWER MIDDLE CLASS 5+-10~0/,/ IIB:ii:iiiI 20+-250/ V^M~ LOWER CLASS0-5~o^ MEASURED BY PERCENTAGE OF PROFESSIONALS TOTAL ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS/1\ Figuire 5. Income Level Distribution for Cairo M.P.A. (1960).

-49or some times in number of vehicles. Land value declines rapidly within a short distance from the streets and remains relatively constant. Land Use Unfortunately, I could not obtain a land use map, although one was constructed by the Cairo Planning Commission in 1956. All maps have been taken off from the CommissionVs "Master Plan of Cairo. " To construct one is a heavy burden and time consuming job. Moreover there is no sufficient data for its construction. A detailed land use map should indicate final destination points as well as points of attractionO Residential area maps, showing the activities of the inhabitants, together with the land use maps can represent the force and direction of attraction causing urban movements. Conclusions 1o Due to extremely high densities of population surrounding the old CoB.Do and due to its deterioration and narrow streets, a new CoBoDo has been created, leaving storage and wholesale activities in the old one, besides some retail activities for the low income classes which are concentrated around it 2. The housing problem is a factor in the city and its suburbs and this problem may check the city's growth. There are many districts which have completely deteriorated and an outbound shift of population is taking place. At the same time there is rapid housing construction activity in the outside districts, but even this is not sufficient to accommodate the new settlers and the outbound shift. It will not be surprising to see the intermediate districts experience extremely high

-50densities which cause rapid deterioration as in the case of some parts of El-Darb El-Ahmar, El-Saida Zeinab and Shaubra. The private sector in our economy has temporarily succeeded in solving the housing problem between 1937 to 1960 (between the last two censuses) when Cairo witnessed rapid growth of population and economic activitieso Now housing is becoming more and more a public sector responsibility, a matter which if not resolved may reduce the rate of growth of the city. 3o More analytical discussion about the economic activities and their distribution in the city, concerning place of residence and place of work is requiredo Unfortunately data for this purpose is lacking. 4o Population and activity distribution for future projection years should be outlined as a primary work for our problem. G.o Transportation in Cairo Connection with the Outside World Cairo is the aerial terminus connecting Egypt with the outside world and is becoming increasingly important. Traffic volume for Cairo Airport was 370 thousand passengers in 1956. Due to the Suez invasion at the end of that year, the traffic dropped to 250 thousand passengers in 1957. Since that time traffic increased by 28%, 29%, and 25% in years 1958, 1959 and 1960, respectively. In 1961 it increased only by 16% but this rate should have been accelerated again by 1963 because of the opening of the new "Cairo International Airport" which is designed to receive jet and supersonic aircrafto Cairo's international yearly variation is shown in Figure 6.

-51EXISTING TRANSPORTATION / - FACILITIES. *Railroad Terminals -: —: Railroads * Bus Terminals --- Rail and Streetcars (parallel) Squares..........Streetcars (Metro) Airports -~- - Electric Railroads — Canals --- District Boundaries Figure 6. Existing Transportation Facilities (1960).

-52Figures 7 and 8 illustrates the seasonal fluctuations of traffic fo: 1959, 1960 and 1961. It indicates that maximum traffic volume is attained during June, July, August with the peak reached during September. A sharp drop always occurs in October and November, then the volume fluctuates at lower levels through December, January, February, March, April and May. This variation is somewhat surprising because it is well known that many tourists prefer the wonderful weather of Egypt in winter rather than in summer. The summer high traffic volume is nowadays partially explained by Moslem pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi-Arabia.* Pilgrimage traffic span was during March, April, May, June and July. It is also observed from Figure 8,that most of the yearly increase in the international traffic through Cairo is occurring in December to June, indicating a large increase in tourism in winter time. Table XIII in Appendix A and Figure 9 show the direction and intensity of traffic between Cairo and the rest of the world. Cairo has other airports at Heliopolis, Imbaba, El-Ahram, and Helwan. Some of them are military airports and the others are used for civilian training and privately owned airplanes. Connection with the Rest of the Country a. Air Other Egyptian airports have negligible connection with the international air traffic. Most of their traffic is local traffic which is still relatively small. Statistical information given for 1958, 1959, 1960 and 1961 included the traffic between Cairo and Damascus as local * Due to the difference between Moslem and Christian calendars, the pilgrimage is rotating along the Christian Year.

-53-. 600 - C o 500 =500 Source: Stotistical Yearly *, 400 ____. __ —! 2_ Report, 1960, Department 400 - 8,Is~~~ __I I I I I of Civil Aviation, U.A.R. 30 L0 I- 200 - 0 E 100 z 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 Figure 7. Increase of International Passenger Traffic at Cairo Airport. 90 85 80 - - { - I -- --- — ^ \ -- -- -- 1961 ~5 ---- --- --- — e —i —- - 10 91960 75 x 70 —* —- 1959 65 i. 55 0 e 50 =45 40 35 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Figure 8. Monthly Variation of Passenger Traffic Volume to Cairo Airport.

GRYECE G H ~TUAZqIR E S^Il <LATTAKIA M lEDIrERRANEAN DAMASCAS S4' |' 1877 U.S.A. _ss TRAFFIC BY AIR // P _ > eo,/ 115958 WESTERN EUROPE 16246 EASTERN EURO PE 0 B IC l 333T6 AFRICA 7f Y A 324 AUSTRA IA Figure 9. Air Traffic Volume Between Cairo and the Rest of the World.

-55traffic, this was during the Egyptian-Syrian unity. Since Israel is a barrier for the use of ground movement and since water transport is so slow, local air traffic absorbed most of the movements between the two regions. The majority of local traffic is generated between Cairo and other cities, i.e., Cairo is the center of local traffic, even regional traffic between Egypt and Syria was between Cairo and Damascus or Cairo and Alippo or any other city in Syria. The local traffic in the Egyptian region originates mainly between Cairo and other cities. The following table indicates the traffic volume at each city. TABLE VI AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC VOLUME AND ITS TYPE AT DIFFERENT EGYPTIAN CITIES (1960) 9) Total International City + Local Traffic Local Traffic % Local to Total Cairo 714,137 202,629 28 Alexandria 60,577 47,660 79 Lauxur 35,195 28,256 80 Port Said 9,016 8,575 94 Marsa Matronh 2,281 19786 80 Aswan 9,468 8,685 92 Asuite 9,912 9,912 100 El-Tour 8,787 3,641 41 Total 849,475 311,094 37 % of Cairo Traffic to Total 84% 65% 80% * Data collected from "Statistical Yearly Report," 1960, Civil Aviation Department, UoA RT

-56Table VII shows the increase in local traffic - Egyptian-Syrian traffic is included - before and after Unity. TABLE VII INCREASE OF PASSENGER LOCAL TRAFFIC*(9) Local Traffic Total Traffic for** Year @ Cairo Airport % Increase Rest of the Country % Increase 1956 17,250 -- 126,021 -- 1957 30,328 76 88,053 30 1958 113,913 275 87,629 0 1959 172,153 51 93,716 7 1960 202,629 18 135,338 45 Local traffic between Egypt and Syria (Regional Traffic), has not been represented as a third item in the Statistical reports, but this could be evaluated from the above table. The sharp increase of Cairo's local traffic between 1957 and 1958 (Unity was in February 1958), and the zero increase in the traffic of the rest of the country obviously indicates that added traffic generated after the Unity between the two regions is not a small fraction. Much attention should be paid to the study of future air traffic if the Arab Unity be achievedo Other airports in Cairo will be required and the best location for the new airport is near the Pyramids of El-Giza. * Data collected from "Statistical Yearly Report," 1960, Civil Aviation Department, UoAoRo **Total traffic is used for the rest of the country because the local is not shown in the CoAoDo report, and since local traffic represents more than 80% of total.

-57b. Rail Cairo is the focal point of the countries railway network. It is the "rest-house" of any passenger travelling between Lower and Upper Egypt, or the new governorate of "El-Wady El-Gedid" in the Western Desert. The first railway line in Egypt was operated in 1856 between Cairo and Alexandria. The Cairo-Suez line was constructed in 1956-57. Later the Cairo-Upper Egypt line was established There are four passenger terminals handling the traffic on the main roads to the rest of the country. The main terminal is "Mehatet-Masr" located at the center of the city in El-Azbakia D1, facing "Ramsis Square"which is a key district to the city traffic. This terminal controls the main railroads of Cairo-Alexandria; Cairo-Tanta through Shebien El-Kom; Cairo-Port Said; Cairo-Kafr El-Sheukh; Cairo Demiatta and Cairo-Aswan. The second terminal is "Pont Limon" adjacent to the main one and controlling the desert railroad to Suez. The third is "Shoubra" to the north on the main line to Lower Egypt, feeding the northwestern boundries of the city. The fourth is "El-Giza' to the south on the main line to Upper Egypto Unfortunately I do not have data for these terminals except a few for the main one. Figure 10 shows the seasonal variation of passenger movement of the main lines for the first, second and the total of the three classes for the two years 1960-61 and 1961-62. Traffic increases sharply from September to October when it matches its peak, then gradually decreases through December. In January, and February in fluctuates sharply with

-58210 190 170, I...\ _ 150: /^^l ^ e2nd class 130 dY SourceYear110y -e-port 1961/62 ailroad Author —-i — 1961-62 |r11 90(M -_ _ in ____ _____ _ -e*1960-61 90... 70.c ___ ___ ^ I I I I~ /r~\ ^' I~Ist class 30,-~ U) July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 0._^~~~ ~ Only ticket holding passengers + I +19.63% + 278% +2.78% -+~2.78% -4.62% -4.62% -4.62% -16.56% 4,000 Total (including _3__000 - --- --- --- --- --- \ —- --- ---' _3rd class) 3,000 2,000 -~_ _ July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Source: Yearly Report 1961/62, Railroad Authority, Traffic Department Figure 10. Rail Passenger Fluctuation for the Egyptian Region 1960-61, 1961-62 (Main Routes).

-59variations from one year to another but following the same pattern. Traffic decreases from March to April and from May to Juneo It seems that the pattern follows the school and college scheduleso They open usually in October, then in January or February they have the midyear vacation and finally they close in June. Figure 11 shows the inbound and outbound passenger trains at Cairo main railway terminal with a 1/2 hour interval, and Figure 12 shows the number of seats available in the peak hours with 1/4 hour interval. It is obvious that the inbound is higher than the outbound in the morning (7:00-7 30 and 7:45-8.515) and it is then reversed in the afternoon between 2:00 to 2:30. Seat capacity could be safely assumed to be more than 100% (all seats occupied and many are standing). This accounts for 5,500 and 4,100 at least, for the two periods respectively (only inbound in the morning and outbound in the afternoon). It is hard to estimate the seat occupancy of other trains with the available data. The peak of traffic period occurs in the evening somewhere between 4:00 and 6:15 PoM. Other data available show that the total number of passengers on the main lines were about 53~30 and 50.00 million passengers in the years 1962-63 and 1962-61 respectively as shown in Figure 13, i.e., 146,000 and 137,000 per day, For the same years the inbound and outbound traffic of Cairo, as they were given to me officially,were 40,000 and 38,000 passengers daily, i.eo, Cairo traffic counted for 27.5% of the total intercity rail travel. To conclude our problem here, the question should be; what will be the volume of traffic in Cairo's main railway terminal for the

7 6 Inbound 5 4 4 —— _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ______ _ _ _ _ _________ ___ 2 -----— _ _ _ _ _ _ -- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ ___ 3 ------------- m - -- - - -- -- - ---- -1 — - - mL -- mj —-- 4 ---------- --— ~ —--------— _ —---- ----------------- 3 Outbound 5 6 7i 12AM 3 6 9 12PM 3 6 9 12AM Figure 11. Number of Trains Arriving or Leaving Cairo Railroad Terminal Each Half Hour (Summer 1963).

2600 -- 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 - 1200 - - -— _ Outbound 1000 800 600___ 400 - I 600 t 800 1000 ___ 1200 I- - _ inbound 1400 1600 3 6 9 I91PM'S''9' 12AMI Source Personal Contact With Traffic Manager Of Railroad Authority, U.A.R., September 1963 Figure 12. Daily Traffic Fluctuation at Cairo Railroad Terminal Every Quarter Hour (Suainer 1963, Number of Seats).

70 60 50 C~~~~~~ 40 irI / I I I Ipodulatio _-~~ =0 I, 30 I -_ 0 ---- 40/41 42/43 44/45 46/47 48/49 50/51 52/53 54/55 56/57 58/59 60/61 62/63 Figure 13. Increase of Number of Total Passengers Using Main Railway Lines Between 1939 and 1963.

-63specified projection years? What per cent of the daily traffic will be assigned for the peak periods in the morning, afternoon, and evening? c. Road Transport Road construction and improvement has required much attention on the part of our revolutionary government. Between 1952 and 1962, 38 million Egyptian pounds were spent on road construction and macadamization, whereas the total expenditure was 12.4 million between 1941 and 1952.(10) The Cairo-Alexandria express road, which was one of the most ambitious road projects in the Middle East, was constructed with a capacity of 10,000 motor vehicles, including 70 ton lories, daily at a speed of 100 Km per hour. Road maintenance cost averaged 0.145 million LE per year before the revolution and have mounted to an average of 0.82 million per year since then. Bridge spending for construction was 44,000 LE per year before, and now (1960) it is 730,000 per year. Their maintenance costs were 12,000 LE per year, while now it is 120,000 LE per year. "Compared to most other developing countries the road system in Egypt is fairly developed. With few exceptions, the populated areas have direct, or relatively nearby, access to a paved road system which - as a rule - has been built to reasonably good standards and is well maintained.... On most paved roads the traffic densities are relatively heavy, ranging from a daily average of about 6,000 vehicles on the Cairo-Alexandria expressway to about 1,000-2,000 on a number of the first and second class roads. "(11) Nevertheless investment on road construction and improvement was but a small fraction - 10% - of the total plan allocation for

-64transportation and telecommunications implemented by the Ministry of Communications. Railways have absorbed almost 61%, inland water transport 5%, Maritime transport 5%, inland transport 5%, telecommunications 12% and mail 2%~ The heavy investments in railways have been largely for a program of conversion from steam to diesel traction, and for track renewals to meet both normal and expanded requirements. Railway and road improvement will have the greatest effect in stimulating a large traffic volume. As we have seen earlier, rail passenger traffic has just begun to catch up with the 1955 volume due to the new policy of Dieselization, track renewal and reinforcement of embankments, and equipment renewal increase. Rail freight traffic is increasing tremendously. The growing output of the country should have a parallel growth of transport capacity. As I discovered during my last visit to Cairo in the summer of 1963, railroads may reach their full utilization sooner than expected; a fact which may put the railways in a position to cancel some traffic, especially passenger traffic. On the other hand the present inland water system may not be able to fulfill the growing freight traffic demand. It will be far longer before roads reach their full utilization. The principal highway transport problem, as I see it, is the lack of rolling stock and the lack of good service. Table XIV, Appendix A, shows the yearly change of the motor vehicle registrations in Egypt between 1940 and 1959. It is very obvious that all types of motor vehicles, even buses and trucks, were less in

-651959 than in 1951, although population output and income have increased greatly during that period. Inter-city bus traffic for the country was 48 5 million passengers in 1955, ieo,, about 44% of the total rail and bus passenger traffic. For the last four years, traffic increased to 125 million passengers in 1960, and 150, 180, and 210 million passengers for the years 1961, 1962, and 1963 (4) The rate of increase is about 20% per year which is much higher than the population rate of increaseo This is due to better service conditions, more buses, better roads, higher income level, and more economic activities. Of course, this rate will not continue like that, and it should decrease after a period of stabilization. That period will depend on the rate of increase of economic activities and their relative locations, the rate of increase of new road construction and pavement, the rate of culture change, and lastly the period that railways can stand without losing passenger traffico Cairo is connected with other major cities by fairly fine expressways which are newly constructed. Excellent circular expressways are surrounding the city connecting its main entrances and making access to any of its districtso Inter-city bus transport Cairo has only one inter-city bus terminal and it is under construction. Most terminals are merely an open space where buses can be stored off the road. Passengers have to stand in the open air until

-66the bus arrives. If they are lucky they may find a place for both feet. The oldest bus terminal or bus storage space is located in Shoubra D17 in a place called El-Kazindara. Recently most of the buses were stored in an open area nearer to the CoBoD-o and the main railway terminal at a place called "Shoubra Underpath" D1 o In "El-Tahrir Square", the main square of Cairo and in front of the Nile Hilton Hotel, a modern but small bus terminal is now being completed. First class and express buses to Alexandria, El Faume, and Suez start from that place. Some years ago the Cairo Municipality built concrete shades and chairs at "Shoubra El Balad" to the far north of the city so as to get the inter-city buses out of the congested area, but bus companies opposed this and refused to move to the north. However, they are under tremendous pressure and I was fortunate enough to attend discussions with the officials of both sides as they attempted to reach a decision. Bus terminals, as well as any other ground passenger terminal, should be distributed around the center of the city while truck terminals should be activated at the boundary of the cityo After full study of the unified transportation plan for the city,new locations should be chosen where the respective terminals could be built. The following table shows the existing terminals and number of buses working between each of them and other cities of the country.

-67TABLE VIII LOCATION AND SIZE OF INTER-CITY BUS TERMINALS IN CAIRO PER DAY Number of Estimated Number Terminal Location Working Buses of Buses/Hour Number of Passengers El-Sabliyah 213 44 42,300 El-Khazindarah 71 24 26,500 Shoubra Shades 14 10 5,700 El-Tahrir Square 62 36 22,680 El-Gizah 25 9 6,100 El-Azhar 2 2 70 Imbaba 26 17 9,200 Total 413 142 112,550 The number of buses operating in Upper Egypt, in 1963 was 441, while in Lower Egypt there were 934. The number of buses working between Cairo and other cities is 413, i.e., about 2891 trips carrying about 120,000 passengers per day. Total number of passengers on the inter-city bus transport for the country reached about 584,000 passengers per day in 1963, i.e., Cairo inter-city bus transport is about 21% of the.country's inter-city transport. Average monthly traffic is about 14.35 million passengers. This occurs usually during May, June, and September. Traffic reaches its peak during October, November, December, and Januaryo This increase is due to the opening of schools, institutes, and universities during this period. In February, when the midyear vacation starts, traffic drops to its minimum. It is very strange that during March and April, while students still travel to their institutes, traffic is lower than the average as is shown in Figure 14.

-68millions of passengers 17 -- -- 16.....r _.. 145 - 1_ _ /Average per month =1,434,87 7 __ 13 __/ I/___ ____ July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June Figure 14. Monthly Inter-City Traffic Variation, 1962-63 Bus Transport. 240 January ----- August 230 -------------- 210 I *I ~ I I! I I I I I I I I I I I I 200 H I I I I' s a e m Figure 15. Daily Traffic Fluctuation for Inter-City Bus Transport, 1962-63.

-69Weekly traffic follows a general trend of reaching the peak in the day before the weekend and at the beginning of the next week as shown in Figure 15. Hourly traffic variation is shown in Figure 16. Taxi and Private automobiles For almost all large cities in Lower Egypt and El-Gizah, there is a good business for inter-city transport by taxis carrying five to seven passengers. These taxis work, especially in the nearby governorates, between Cairo and these cities. There is no data on this volume of traffic which is growing rapidly. I used it frequently during my visit to Cairo. Although some traffic counts have been made on the roads linking Cairo with other cities, I could obtain only one count on the Cairo-Alexandria expressway which is shown in Figure 17. These inbound and outbound curves together look very strange, because in general the outbound curve is far below the inbound which is not realistic and cannot represent a typical day for traffic counts. Otherwise, since these curves are given without any table, it may be that there is a mistake in their drawing. Probably,the inblound curve continues downward at its intersection with the outbound curve and following the latter's path, i.e., to the right of the point of intersection, the names are reversed. The characteristics of these curves are also very strange, the peak traffic volume occurs between 11 A.M. and 1 P.M. which indicates that a high percentage of the trips do not represent daily working trips. The volume of traffic on this main highway cannot

-7040 "- ~.... ~..........40 -. — - --- - -Total 35.-. —---- 20 - -- --- 20 - 15 — ~ —.~ 15 -- -- -- ~T ~~r~1-~ ~~-~ ~~T1~~-T -- -- ----- 10 Figure 16. Outbound and Inboud Bus Traffic of El-NileCOmpaInbound MO 20 5 —' —' -----' — ------- —' ---..-. —Outbound 5 t- f E 6- 10 Itl 1 2 1 2 4 5 2 + i - AM PM Figure 16. Outbound and Inbound Bus Traffic of El-Nile Company for Mid Delta.

-71460 - ------- 420 ---- 380' ----— Total - 340 300 zv. / // 2-60 / L.-Inbound 220 - /f 1805 -- 7 8 9 10 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 - 12 /Outbound / AM PM 140 __-/___at the Entrance of Cairo- Sept. 29. 1959. /,/ \ - 100 60 —' 20 _ - 5 6 7 8 9 10 I 12 I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 II 12 AM PM Figure 17. Hourly Traffic Variation on the Cairo-Alexandria Expressway at the Entrance of Cairo, Sept. 29, 1959.

-72reflect any congestion problems to the city traffic. The same thing could be applied for other highways joining Cairo. Inland water transport Inter-city water passenger transport is of a negligible quantity and is diminishing, but there is a growing movement during the weekends and holidays between Cairo and the Nile Barrage to the Northwest of the city. There is no traffic conflict created by this type of movement, i.e., people using this type of transport do not create any traffic conflicts on the parallel streets to the Nile at the inlandwater terminals. We shall see later that a heavy axis of public transport in Cairo is coming from the north at Shoubra to the south (C.BoDo and Cairo University)o There is a possibility then, for the use of hydrofoil water crafts at high speeds to carry the direct traffic between Shoubra and El-Tahrir-Square (in the CoBoDo) and Cairo Universityo This possibility should be studied to overcome the traffic problem - at least temporarily during the period of construction of the subway - for this axis, Intra-City Transport a. Rail There are two main rail terminals in Cairo for passenger suburban movement, namely Pont Limon and Bab El-Loukeo The former is ]D9 serving El-Materia suburban line and the latter serves Helwan15 suburban line.

-73Suburban traffic has almost been doubled within the last few years as shown in Figure 18. Helwan and El-Materia traffic alone increased from 38.367 million in 1958-59 to 50.165 million in 1961-62 with a rate of increase of 16% per year for Helwan and 2.8% per year for El-Materia. Seasonal variation in suburban traffic follows the same pattern as of the main lines as shown in Figures 19 and 20. As the data was submitted to me officially in August, 1963 by the R.R. Authority, the number of trains working on the two lines at the high traffic pressure during the day was as follows: Time Number of Trains i - Helwan 6:30 - 8:00 A.M. 19 inbound and 19 outbound 2:00 - 5:00 P.M. 37 inbound and 37 outbound ii - El-Materia 6:20 - 8:00 A.M. 10 inbound and 10 outbouna 2:00 - 4:00 P.M. 9 inbound and 11 outbound Maximum number of passengers at the peak hours is 1000 passengers per train for Helwan and 750 passengers per train for the other. Until further detailed data could be obtained, based on the working times for different active groups' Ican assume the following: No. of Passengers No. of Per Train Time Between Passengers Peak Time Inbound Outbound Trains Per Min. Helwan 6:30 - 8:00 A.M. 750 1000 4.7 370 2:00 - 2:30 P.M. 500 1000 4.8 315 2:30 - 3:00 P.M. 1000 500 4.8 315 5:30 - 6:00 P.M. 1000 500 4.8 315 * See footnote Page 76.

70 Helvan Line: 33,345,103 1961/62 22,848,755 1958/59 46% —- 15% per year El-Materiyah 16,819,752 1961/62 60 - 15,517,993 1958/59 9% 3% per year 50 40 E 0 30 2.0 10 0) 37/38 41/42 43/44 45/46 47/48 49/50 51/52 53/54 55/56 57/58 59/60 61/62 Source: Ministry of Communication, Special Commitee Report For The Development Of Railroads,1957,p42 20Figure 18. Suburban Rail Traffic Increase, (Yearly Variation). LL. 37/38 41/42 43/44 45/46 47/48 49/50 51/52 53/54 55'56 57/58 59/60 61/62 Source: Ministry of Communication, Special Commitee Report For The Development Of Railroads, 1957, p.42 Figure 18. Suburban Rail Traffic Increase, (Yearly Variation).

-7532,000.... \ / increase=8.54% per year 3,000 - Total I32,851792 1,500 — 1960-61 1,0;, - - -- - -- -- - -- - -- - - -- 0 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Figure 19. Suburban Rail Traffic (Monthly Variation). + 13.64% +5.40 00_ _ Monthly overage for the 4. —C ~-.3 Source: Yearly Report, 1961-62, Railroad Authority,Traffic Dept. Figure 20. Per Cent Suburban Rail Traffic Variation (Monthly). I00 M._on thVla erageforthe

-76Still there is a lack of information to identify the full span and traffic volume of the peak hours. Our goal is to get this information and divide the daily traffic into periods of certain identical traffic levels which may or may not be valuable from the economic point of view. So far it seems from the train schedule for both the suburban and intercity traffic that the high traffic volume is better spaced in Cairo than most of the large cities of the world, a fact which sounds advantageous. * Government Employees 8:00 AoM. to 2000 PoMo Changed in September 19630 7:30 AoM. to 1:30 P.M. Shopping Centers and Business Companies 8:00 - 9:00 AoMo to 1:00 - 2000 P.Mo and 4:00 PoM. to 7:00 P.Mo Changed to 9o00 - 10:00 AoM. to 2:00 - 3:00 PoMo and 5:00 P.Mo to 8:00 P.Mo Schools 7:30 to 8:00 AoMo to 2:00 PoMo - 4:00 PoMo Changed to 7:30 for boys and 8:00 for girls to 2:00 - 4:00 P.M. Universities 8:00 AoMo to 2000 PoMo and 3000 PoMo to 7000 P.Mo Changed to 9:00 AoMo and over Industrial Firms 7:00 AoMo to 1:00 P.Mo and 3:00 P.M. to 5:00 P.Mo Weekends Shopping Centers Fridays or Sundays Others Fridays

-77b. Other Public Mass Transport Other public mass Transport systems in Cairo are indicated as follows: i) A bus network which covers almost each area in the city, and carries more than 65% of the intracity movement. ii) A very old, slow and out of date Tramway (street cars) system which once dominated the traffic of the city. Some of the tramway lines were removed in the mid-fifties because they were considered an obstacle causing congestion. iii) A trolly bus system erected in the mid-fifties for a few limited lines. iv) A "Metro" system (fast street cars running partially in an open subway) connecting Heliopolis with the Nile at the CoBoD, In 1954 three French experts(l2) were assigned by the Egyptian government to study the transport of Cairo and make their recommendations for future plans. In their report the three experts severely criticised almost all the privately owned competitive companies which controlled public transport in Cairo, The main criticism was focused upon the administrative responsibilities towards the public, maintenance and replacement policies, level of bookkeeping and recording, and bus drivers and operator's responsibilities towards their companies and the public. They also criticised the private ownership of public transport systems and their inadequate integration. They recommended a unified system with public ownership, since this type of system has proved healthy for both London and Pariso

-78In 1960 public transport systems were nationalized, with three put under one administrative authority called the "Cairo Organization for Public Transport" while the "Metro" is under the "Heliopolis Organization." I could not believe that the two authorities would be running the four systems with such high degree of efficiency had I not witnessed the change in each aspect. I had long discussions with the general directors of both organizations and went through their records. Astonishingly enough their bookkeeping and records are more detailed, clear and adequate than those of the "Railroad Authority" which is better financed and was established earlier. Meanwhile,there are still some points for criticism. First, inadequacy of their present capacities to fulfill the public demand. Second, the lack of research. The first point, I realized, is out of their hands because of the shortage of foreign currency to import more units. The second may be thought of as a luxury. Table IX shows a comparison of capacity and performance of the four systems between 1953-54 and 1962-63. TABLE IX PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS IN CAIRO 1953-54 AND 1962-63 Length. of Network No. of No. of Kilometers Passengers Passengers System Year Km. Lines Units per year per year Kms./Units Tramways 1953-54 144.425 19 536 27644,6 661 179,215,900 6.05 Trollybuses 1953-54 1.255 1 1 59,327 Buses 1953-54 200.00 31 - - 199,994,500 Metro 1953-54 20.500 3 39 4,523,000 25,000,000 5.53 Tramways 1962-63 166.65 20 567 1,993,000 119,700,000 5.5 Trollybuses 1962-63 40.23 4 108 819,000 77,090,000 8.7 Buses 1962-63 1055 92 755 7,437,000 494,000,000 6.2 Metro 1961-62 28.92 4 76 7,532,472 47,564,000 6.32 Total passengers for 1953-54 was about 404 million, increased to about 740 million in 1962-63, with a rate of about 9.2% per year, while the capacity did not increase by more than 4% per year.

-79Traffic Variation Except for February and August, monthly variation ranges between 4% to 5% of the monthly average. The two months have -8% difference as shown in Figure 21. In general,we notice that for intercity transport, the variation ranges between -17% to +20%, for the suburban between -4% to +14%, i.e., the variation is higher in the intercity and lower in the intracity transport. This may be due to the fact that because student travel constitutes a good share of the passenger traffic on the main intercity lines that when the students have their midyear vacation they stay in their villages or cities, but students who live in Cairo continue to use the public transport for travel purposes other than going to their institutes. Daily traffic variation for the intracity movement is also shown in Figure 22 having the following main features: a) traffic drops relatively sharply during the weekends (Fridays) and holidays when some people prefer staying at home and traffic drops to 87% of the daily average. On the other hand traffic increases up to 120% on days preceding weekends (Thursday) when people prefer to go shopping, visiting, or entertaining; b) traffic is higher than the average at the beginning of the month and then slows down through it, the cause is obviously an economic one; c) since the main shopping centers close on Sundays we notice that lowest traffic volumes on a typical week day is attained on Sundays; d) Saturdays and Mondays tend to be a little higher than the average. Hourly traffic variation cannot be established except by traffic counts. As far as I know, the only traffic count for public transport in Cairo has been made by the three French experts in 1953-54.

+ 19.63% Main Railroad I I d1 +2.78% -4.E62 -4.62% Suburban Railroad - I c5.4% +2.5% - -__ I''__ - _ +.~ -4.4% -, -1.7% +4.58% Tram, Trolley, Buses._.__. +2.2% y -7.6% July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Figure 21. Per Cent Fluctuation in Traffic (Monthly) for All Passenger Transport Systems.

120 110 90 -- j- L ---- - 100 90 to 1., cn Z ~ r. n c U.-,1 Avg. -1 60 -- 1 =='- ~ ~ ~Z -1962/63 -— 1961/62 - — * - Avg.=57,571,000 per Avg.=52,091,000 per 110% 50 F —-L —-:r-:-tf —- -^ month month Apr., Mor,Jan.,Dec. and May, Mar,and Oct.= 40 - - - - - i Oct= 47%higher 484% higher 102.22 than the avg. than the avg. 00oo% Averag - 100 0 -- June, May and Nov.= June,Jan., Dec. and 9 +1.03% Nov. = 1.07% 9592 20 --- Feb., Sept., Aug, and higher than the avg. 9235 July = 6.66% Sept, Aug, July = ~10 ------------ ~lower than avg. 3.59% lower 90%. S e ^ Total increase from Feb.= 10.15% lower <I - -' 52 o) 0,,~ L: 1J' Jg last year=1052% Figure 22. Daily and. Monthly Traffic Variation Trainways, Trollybuses, and. Buses. F igure 22. Daily and Monthly Traff'ic Variation Trainways, Trollybuses.9 and Buses.

-82They selected 25 points (Figure 23) where they made their counts and observations, a sample of which is represented in Figures23, 24, 25 and 26. They significantly classified traffic intensity into the following: peak hours volume (p.h.) intermediate hours volume (i.h.) low hours volume (l.h.) Total length of the three periods is 16 hours from 7 A.M. to 11 P.M. Other than this period,traffic has no significance and could be called very low (v.l.h.). The following table shows the traffic volume at eleven significant points on the main traffic axis. TABLE X AVERAGE TRAFFIC VOLUME PER QUARTER HOUR AT ELEVEN SELECTED POINTS Max. Traffic Point of Length of Average No. Length of Average No. on Reverse Length of Average No. Observation Period Passengers Period Passengers Direction for Period Passengers 1 3 3,100 4.5 2,200 1,100 7.5 1,600 2 2 800 7 600 400 6 450 5 3 900 7 800 500 5 600 8 2 800 9 600 400 4 400 10 3 850 9 600 400 3 400 11 3 750 6 600 500 6 500 12 3.5 1,300 10.5 1,100 600 2 800 14 3 1,200 4 1,000 900 8 800 16 2 800 5 600 500 8 400 17 2 1,200 7 1,000 700 6 700 23 2.5 1,100 7.5 900 600 5 650 From this table and their observation they concluded the following: i) There is a fixed intermediate load for seven hours. ii) This load has only +30% variation for the peak and low loads, while in Paris the variation is -50% to +150%. iii) Time of the peak loads occurs between 7-8 A.M. in the direction of the center, and from 2-3 P.M. from the center towards the outer ring of the city, and a third between 6:30 and 7:30 P.M. in both directions.

-83LE CAIRE REORGANISATION DEsTRANSPORTS CHOUBRAH VILLAGE ROD eL LOCALISATION DES POINTAGES FARAG D'OCCUPATION R.A.T.P. C.0.09.19541 CHOUBRAH CARACOL MABIADA ABBASSIA PONT EMBABEH i a jS. SAYE SAKAKIN c, PBiA N / EMBABEH A D \ s w Vl E ^xi tARR 3gr N SATABA LLE * ABATTOIR<~S ~IMAM-EL'CHAFEI HOTEL MENA 4e o Figure 23. Localisation Des Pointages D'occupation (1954).

-84LE CAIRE REORGANISATION DEsTRANSPORTS Releve de charge au poinb n2 9 Legende CLOT BEY (Midan Khazindab) |. et rue lbpahirn Pacha. I - / -......;'~?.",r.~u~ou,,. R.A.T.P. C-018 1954 -170f r I T 1954 |I 1500" "....... i.. -- -— t —-- -- t -- - -t - - - t —.............-..-........ -....... t -_-..... - 1 *00~~ —',;' 1700 T om_ __ _ _. —, l - -,-...,..-., —. - __ -/ - —! - ~ i 1 -. -. -.. - 1:00' —--- - --- -- -A " --. I - - i —:"r:;f —-— t................. _._4........::' i-,:.....' 3b I.. 0'; 3 i * I:: i i 3'0 7 8 9 10 11 t2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 t 21 22 et ru Ibrahim Pa. 51000i__ _........ 30....9-.07~ 7-9-. V........ 7; 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1....1....2.

-85LE CAIRE REORGANISATION DESTRANSPORTS Releve de charge au point n2 8 Legende ENTREE RUE FAGGALA Vew vw//e R.A.T.P.| C017 1954 1800 i.... -1 0 i 1. -, -.. I' i.,' I i: I I 1 I I' I: 1600 -, _ _- I') j' _ |:!; I I I I i j I'I I_ _ _I I I I I I I II -1 I —-t i 1 i t'i? * i I; t r-;-; I - - -100 _. - I - i i 4 i 1100 I... _....J....rII i I |_I: i. I.. 17 1 r 1100 - 1 I - - I!1 1 -! - 1. I oo. T'''-i-' 1L00 _. —-.. -- 4- - 1 -........., I - +40o -.-..; _ C 3+ - - --. -....... --- -' v - --- j.. I: I I t I: I 300. 11! I. t. I I i tv; I, i: * * I I.: I 10 -; \ —-~~ - -~ ~ \ --'*:' 1 — I\ |H j I,.. —- -'-L- -' - -i~ i,: i - - -- l-.i... t' I800',' ~ + - } -, X 1 i S i i::.;7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Figure 25. Releve d e, cbarge au point no. 8, Entree Rue Faggala. 7 8 9 10 1 1 1Z 13 1.' 15 18 171 9 20 Z

-86LE CAIRE REORGAN!:.'ON DEs TNA.NPORTS Releve de charge au poinb n2= 7 Legende RUE EL MALIKA (Telephones).. -.Ve./ vI//e.....______________ __........_ Ve/v' /ovl /9/y R.A.T.P.| C. 016.1954 Yora geujt r Y'/Svy'e#/e. 2200. —4-O4 "T ~" ~ " ~ "~ ~ * —i - F 2000....l. -,.il 1800.-t - - - — t —.. —- -V -- -_ 1800. — - - I r-fl 1;. 4 i I; I, I i i! I | 1700 _ -t H- -t -- -_ I..- -- 1 50, ---- -- --— 1- --- soo' ff - 1:| 1400 - - - - - -------.-.1 800:...,....*...... -.' — _ _,,, s.ID..._.. 700.4 4t —4<< —- 4-/ t XtX —A t4. 400 3 | o _' ^ 30 3 _ |. * _. r. 3 30 30 ol 30 13 0 30 30 30 7 8,3 t10 1 12 13 14.bi 16'7 18 19 20 21 }2 Figur:e 26. Releve d.e, charge au point no. 7, Rue El-Malka.

-87iv) Ratio between daily to the yearly traffic was 1/342. v) The peak hour volume of traffic 67o5 to 8% of the average daily traffic. (yearly traffic)/342 Figure 27 shows what we can call an intensity of public transport network for Cairo at its peak hour. This figure has been constructed on the basis of the number of public transport units passing a given point on its path multiplied by the actual capacity of each unit. This actual capacity is not the number of seats available in each unit but on the actual number of passengers who use that unit at the peak traffic hours. c. Other Transport Systems and Traffic Composition Cairo used to absorb more than 50% of the nongovernment motor vehicles. In 1945, 75% of the country's motor vehicles were located in Cairo, in 1950 the percentage dropped to 54%, in 1955 was 53% and in 1963 was 51%. By the end of June,1963, Cairo had 55% of the private automobiles of the country, 40% of the taxis, 45% of the buses, 38% of the trucks, and 56% of the motorcycles. Table XIV, Appendix A and Figures 28 and 29 show Cairo's share of the integrated motor vehicles of the country and their increase in Cairo, where there is a car for each 100 persons or 75 persons for a car and a motorcycle. In general, between 1955 and 1963, increases of motor vehicles for passenger purposes was slight. Although the country is rapidly accomplishing socialism, private automobiles and motorcycles are increasing relatively faster than buses,which have decreased between the two dates, although passengers of public buses have increased as mentioned before by little less than 150% between 1953-54 and 1962-63, while the carrying capacity increased by only 22%o

-881\ i. \ CAIRO PUBLIC TRANSPORT ~\,~~ A\~ ~ TRAFFIC FLOW \, \X ^ v Exclusive of Railway Transport Figure ~7. Cairo Public Transport Traffic Flow, 1963, Exclusive of Railway Transport.

60,000 50,000 11 Cairo F Egypt r L 30,000 a. Figure 28. Motor Vehicles in Cairo and Egypt (1945-63). 40,0000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - ------ 0,000 ---- - -- -- - 1945 1950 1955 196T lo r $ o A, B i 2 I-, to Figure 29. Motor Vehicle Registration in Cairo (1945-63).

-90The three French experts recommended a 30% immediate increase in the carrying capacity of buses in 1954 because of their over use. Now we can imagine how crowdedly they are being operated and how sardinelike transport is taking place in Cairoo To have an accurate idea about the traffic composition in at least some major points in Cairo, I conducted, with a small group of engineers, a traffic count during August 1963, at three main squares of Cairo, two of which - Remsis and El-Tahrir - could be considered the main collective and distributary squares of Cairo within the C.oBD.; the third - Soliman - is in the center of the CoBoDo where no public transport systems are permitted to operate. A 15 minute count was used during the peak hours between 1030 and 3~00 PoMo and the hourly traffic volume is calculated based on the following list which is based on my own observation and judgment. Time (PoM.) % of Max. Quarterly Volume 1030 - 1045 60 1o45 - 2o00 70 2000 - 2015 100 2 15 - 2 30 80 2~30 - 2~45 70 2~45 - 3:00 60 Results are shown in Tables XV, XVI and XVII in Appendix A, followed by a sketch for each square. For the first two squares, private automobiles ranged between 33.8% to 44.2%, taxis from 22.8% to 31.8% with a constant percentage, 44% of them, running empty. Bicycles constitute 7.4% to 7.8%, motorcycles 2.o9 to 3o0% public transport 13 1369 to 16o9 trucks 3.3% to 5.1%,

-91motorcycles with a box 1.5% to 2.0%, man or animal driven vehicles 0 to 35%,o The third square has 49,1% private automobiles and 3807% taxi (52% of them run empty)o Bicycles and motorcycles have relatively the same percentage as before 7.7% and 3.6% respectively. Buses (tourists) constitutes only 0.6% and trucks 0.3o% Traffic composition,as it stands now, is much better than 25 years ago when horse driven vehicles were widely used as public or private transport systems. For passenger movement these vehicles have nearly disappeared but for freight movement they could be seen frequently in old districts outside the C.B.Do and rarely seen (with some exceptions) in the major streets of the C.BoDo Traffic composition now has its drawback of nonuniformity of sizes and speeds which seriously effect actual street capacity and performance. It seems from the number of lanes for each street that most of them had, until now, sufficient capacity and they can absorb higher volumes. Unfortunately I do not know their capacities because of the nonuniformity of traffic. Cases like this have not been studied before and accurate conclusions should be based on actual and sufficient accumulation of data. Since this data is not available, it is difficult for any theoretical attempt to throw light on capacities in cases like this. A comment which is worthwhile, is that at both El-Tahrir and Ramsis Squares, where most of government employees have to catch a public transport vehicle to their homes between 2:00 to 3:00 P.M., are cleared up within 45 minutes and then go back to normal conditions, while my observation in London indicated that this movement cannot be accomplished with less than 60 minutes. The only difference is that in Cairo the passengers have to suffer

-92crowded conditions and have trouble finding a place for their feet in a bus that carries more than 100% of its capacity. Cairo passengers are used to this condition and I am sure that when the number of buses increases, passengers will over-occupy the early buses at rush hours leaving the following ones operating at less than capacity. When this time comes,the bus drivers should be instructed not to accept more than the bus' capacity or we will run in a vicious but more complicated circleo The main question now is when may we reach optimum street capacity? General Traffic Conditions The number of lanes mentioned in three of the above mentioned tables should be reduced by one for each street, because of parking vehicles or numerous bus or trolly stopso Pedestrians are numerous and dangerously causing congestion everywhere in the cityo They are not only occupying sidewalks but also occupying the streets themselves, they do not follow pedestrian traffic lines or traffic signalso Young kids often jump suddenly from the sidewalks to the street causing many accidents, which are seriously increasing as the following table indicates. TABLE XI TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN CAIRO* Year 1957(13) 1958(13) 1959(13) 1961-62(14) 1962-63(14) Death 119 106 107 180 150 Injuries 1442 1360 1470 3300 2200 Accidents - - - 11l,014 8005 * These represent only accidents made by public transport (buses, tramways and trolly buses)~

-93Only recently, successful attempts have been taken,at least within the CoBoD. area,to control pedestrian traffic, giving tickets to those who do not follow regulations, A part of the sidewalks within the CoBoDo and a sizable proportion of them outside the C.B.D. are occupied by merchandise, a matter which forces people to walk in the streets. Street occupancy with wooden hand driven flat cars on which private merchants put their goods (vegetables, fruits, etc.) is also a serious problem, especially for major squares outside the CoBoDo and in densely populated districts. The most serious case is observed in a one block street connecting Helwan rail terminal with the jammed square of El-Falaki in the CBo.Do At least between 2000 to 3:00 PoMo, 20,000 passengers are using this terminal, one bus line is using this street and a trolly line with other bus lines are passing in front of the terminalo I passed along this street at 7:30 PoM. with a private automobile in about 12 minutes, that is, I could have made two round trips along this street walking in a shorter timeo On one side of the street a large grocery center is located, and a movie theater and other shops are located on the other side. Both sidewalks are fully occupied as well as half the street itself leaving only 1-1/2 lanes for two way vehicle and pedestrian traffic. There is no wonder then that the average tabulated speed of some bus lines passing through densely populated districts goes down to 11.2 Km/hr, when they cross the CoBoD. and from 14 to 17 Km/hr when they do not pass it, while the speed goes up to an average of 30.8 Km/hr from the C.B.D. to the suburbso Tramways have a speed as low as 9.16 Km/hr to a high of 10.94 Km/hr.(16) Trollys range between 14.12 Km/hr

-94to 16.16 Km/hr (16) The metro between Heliopolis and the Nile runs with an average tabulated speed of 20 Km/hr and as low as 19 Km/hr in the peak hour traffic to 25.30 Km/hr in the morning and at night time. Traffic Department Unfortunately traffic is regulated, controlled and planned by a department of the governorate police. There is no single specialized traffic engineer working thereo Although many of the officers running that department have been sent on missions abroad to study traffic for short times, but this is not enough. Hi Defining the Problem Like doctorsafter having a fast and brief background of the history, community life and movement characteristics in Cairo, we can begin to make our tests or examinations, - in the doctor's case blood pressure, temperature... etco - trying to discover the defective parts causing pain and troubles. In the meantime we have to realize that the problem is not static nor is the solution. It follows that the problem formulation will not be accurate without taking into consideration future changes which causes dynamicacyo Testing Cairo's organization with the eight standard norms mentioned in the introduction set for an ideal transport planning we find~ 1. Minimization of Movement in Length and Number Presence of hills and large cemeteries to the east of Cairo has imposed abnormal expansion of the city to the north giving it an odd shape causing a long path to be cut daily by inhabitants of northern and southern fringeso An effort has been made to form a new district on

-95the Mokattam Hills called "El-Mokattum City," but it seems that it has not been successful until now because of the unsolved problem of a direct route to connect it with the CoBoDo, since the existing routes pass through congested areas. The only good route is a new one connecting it with Kournaish Street parallel to the Nile but it is located to the South which seems to be far from the C.B.Do Another city called "El-Nasr City" is under construction now on a large area which used to be an army barracks between HeliopolisD20 D12 and El Wayli2 in the desert. In this city the Olympic Stadium has been built. The U.A.R. foreign ministry with all the foreign embassies will be shifted to this area, and there is also a proposal of concentration of all or most of the government buildings in this city. This proposal may turn out to be very serious, because these buildings will be shifted from a central area with concentrations of population where travel to work used to be made by certain groups on foot, to a non-central area of low population density which will surely add more burden to the transport network. This policy then creates more movement which could be avoided and may affect a large low income group who have adjusted their residential location to their job location. Better distribution policy should be made for government buildings, and this policy should be in harmony with housing policy which will be discussed latero Most of the cities of the world, having a suburban daily travel pattern,usually utilize an inbound direction in the morning and outbound direction in the evening. Cairo-Helwan suburban line have a reversed trend because many who are working in the suburb are living in Cairo although, as mentioned previously,it is a potential place for a healthy

-96beautiful residential area as well as a center for heavy industry. Since there is a serious housing problem now in Cairo, no one has a choice of his residential place except for a status or income preference, and since housing activity is becoming rapidly a public sector, then it seems that the obligation of the government to give priority of residency in a certain area should be given to those who work in that area. Modern shopping centers as they are known in the United States of America, which create multiple purpose trips, are badly needed in most of the districts of Cairo, especially those of the outer fringe. This would eliminate their dependence on the inner districts and reduce distance ana frequency of movement for shopping purposes. Communications can be considered in some occasions as a substitute for transportation of certain purposes. Although telephone lines are increasing more rapidly than the increase of population in Cairo, there is a serious shortage of telephone lines. They are mostly absorbed by the growing business and service activities in the city, but at the same time there is a limited capacity for the "Public Authority of Communications." At least until this problem could be solved completely, public telephones should be distributed everywhere in the city. The program of housing renewal should cover most of the old districts and should start from the new and modern residential areas towards the slums, cemeteries, and hills. This policy will give direct contacts to the newer areas avoiding a situation like that of "El-Mokattum City. " Also it will give a free hand to planners to construct new streets or roads of regular and straight paths, and free hand in designing better crossings, or in general, better planning free of restrictions.

-97Concluding from this part, a new master plan of Cairo should be proposed as a first step of our long range solution, which is based upon dividing the city in autonomous parts each containing several districts of main shopping centers, government buildings and activities. The second step will be the choice of the forecasting years. The third is to determine the size of the city with respect to the country and finally the distribution of the population in different districts. 2. Better Fluctuations of Movement We have seen that fluctuation of traffic in Cairo is highly advantageous because of the fixed intermediate traffic load which lasts seven hours out of sixteen daily and this load is exceeded or preceded only by +30%. This characteristic of traffic is the outcome of the working time table for different working groupso Of course, the time table is also an outcome of climatic conditions. Since this policy is acceptable in Egypt then the best time schedule should be based on factual observations and analysis of accumulated data collected by sampling methods for place of residency of all groups and their place of work in addition to a general origin and destination and time study. Until this data is available, nothing can be done and the present new schedule will prevail. 3. Elimination of Concentration of Traffic Although many efforts and many changes have been accomplished for the main routes and streets in or surrounding Cairo since 1954, heavy traffic concentration is still seen on all major axis especially that of Shoubra Street, Ramsis Street, 23rd of July Street, Ramsis

-98Square - El Tahrir Square connection... etc. A study should begin soon for alternative parallel routes, the possibility of constructing elevated roads and the study of location of new bridges on the Nile. This study should be based on scientific expectation of traffic volume between major points of the city. This study will be the core of this research and our main trouble is the lack of information. 4. Elimination of Hazardous Movements and Spot Congestion The main defects under this topic have been thoroughly discussed and the counter solutions can be summarized in the following few points: a - Unification of transport systems, at least in speed, through elimination of hand and animal driven vehicles, provisions of special lanes for bicycles, and elimination of slow tramway lines. b - More control of pedestrian movement in all squares and main routes. c - Elimination of street occupancy by providing more modern shopping centers. d - Reduction of accidents through better traffic control and law enforcement. It is worth mentioning here that there are no stop signs anywhere in Cairo. Our job then will be that, through our solution we have to discuss the difficulties of accomplishing each of the above points and provide a solution for each.

-995. Attainment of High Average Speeds Also we have seen before how average speeds attained is too slow to be considered a cause of wasted time for passengers and a reduction of efficiency of the system. In addition to the above mentioned reasons, slow movement is due to: a - Old equipments, poor use and maintenance. b - Short distances between stops. c - The non-use of express vehicles (stop only in few selected stops) at least at peak hours and some other selected periods. d - Unreasonable length of time wasted in each stop, due to passengers behavior. 6. Adequate Capacity Also we have seen that equipment has been over-used and its capacity lags behind demand. Route capacity should be checked for projection years to determine when an underground transport is needed. 7. Comfortable and Safe Transport Public transportation is a headache to all passengers due to shortage of capacity and slow movement. Both points have been discussed before. 8. Low Transport Cost Although our public transport network is still a profitable business it could be more successful if higher efficiencies are attained and better services are provided.

-100In 1954 the French experts estimated that 5% of the passengers who were using the network did not pay because they would ascend and descend before the "conductor" or "operator" reached them due to the over-loaded vehicleso Undoubtedly this percentage is now exceeded. The gain from this missed percentage may cover a good share of the lagged capacity. Comfort will stimulate more and more movement in demand which means more profit. Higher profits are always needed,at least to dOver increasing labor wages and material prices, We have seen before that taxi movement rises to 38.7% of the traffic in the heart of the CoB.Do,, and 52% of them are moving empty. Outside this area where public transport is provided, taxi constitute from about 23% to 32% with 44% of them empty. Many of the taxis are singly and privately owned. For this reason competition is too high among owners or drivers, so that each vehicle has to keep running until it picks a passenger. Efficiency is low and costs are high due to gasoline prices being so high in Egypto It is worthwhile to find a solution for a better operating system to lower costs on one hand and to eliminate unnecessary movemento

CHAPTER II DETERMINATION OF FUTURE POPULATION OF CAIRO THROUGH THE STUDY OF POPULATION GROWTH AND REDISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN EGYPT -101

Ao Urbanization Urbanization is a highly complicated dynamic phenomena of the agglomeration of people and serviceso It is mainly the characteristics of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Anderson( 4) in describing the urban communities, emphasized that for a person to be qualified as an urbanized one, there should be a change of behavior, culture, and social values when migrating from rural to urban areas. In this sense, people who also live in the rural areas and behave like those of urban areas can be also included as urbanized people. This approach has the advantage of not restricting urbanization to cities only. A second approach for defining urbanization which ignores the role of behavior and concentrates on the pattern of activities of the entire population of a considered area. Instead of a shift in behavior in the first place, a re-organization of activities is to be observed. Urbanization then is defined as "the movement of people from communities concerned chiefly or solely with agriculture to other communities, generally larger, whose activities are primarily centered in government, trade, manufacture, or allied interests"T(l5) There is a third approach which is mainly concerned with people and space. Urbanization then is defined as "the process of population concentration", (16) no matter how they behave or what-activities they are involved in. -102

-103These three alternative approaches offer distinctive problems and possibilities. Each is suited to a different range of analytical questions and each presents its own difficulties in conceptualism and measurement. In general, the third approach is widely adopted and used because "it seems to offer the fewest ambiguities and the measurement problems that it entails appears closer to solution than those connected with either the structural or behavioral approaches". In my opinion, none of the three mentioned approaches can solely explain the urbanization phenomena. In Egypt, for example, it is clear from the previous census that there are many concentrations of masses of people which were defined as urbanized areas but culturally and "structurally" were backward. It is true that agglomeration of people is in itself a stimulus for behavior and activity changes, but in many times, especially in the underdeveloped countries or the newly developing countries, this change is so slow due to illiteracy and low income, that it seems unrealistic to define those areas as urbanized, I think that the demographic definition should be narrowed to some extent so as to specify a certain degree of literacy with a certain level of per capita income since both are basic factors for modernization and since both can be easily known in an aggregative sense. Urbanization in the following work will carry its demographic meaning only. 1. The Measurement of Urbanization Adopting the demographic approach, level, or degree of urbanization can simply be measured by the proportion of the total population

-104to be found in cities or cities of a certain size. This is the most familiar indicator to be found in the empirical literature.(18) A feature that should be sharply distinguished from the level of urbanization, is the rate of urbanization which takes in consideration the change of its degree with respect to time. 2. Delimiting the "Urban Area" The most common criteria, it appears, are size, density, (both are purely demographic indicators), and administrative status. The definitions of "urban" not only vary over time within census systems, but more important, differ radically at all times between census systems. At one extreme, for example, Denmark designates as "urban" all localities of "2,500 and more" inhabitants, while on the other end, a locality in Korea must have at least 40,000 inhabitants to qualify as "urban"~ Some countries base their classification not on the population size of a civil division but on such criteria —singly or in combination —as predominant forms of economic activity, legal or administrative status, the presence or absence of certain services or facilities conventionally associated with cities. Still other countries adopt a combination of size and qualitative characteristics such as "an administrative center with a minimum of 1,500 population." In the United States and Egypt, for most purposes, an urban place has a population of at least 2,500 inhabitants. As a consequence of these arbitrary differences even the United Nations cannot achieve wholly consistant categories although a compromise measure of 20,000 and over has recently come to be adopted by many students of the subject,(l9)

-105A comparative science of urban phenomena for the entire world and which we have to observe in our study in this chapter is obviously impossible since the data is lacking for most of the world. If we always waited for perfect information before attempting to build a comparative social science we would wait forever. The program of urban studies at Columbia University, known as the World Urban Resources Index, is being made to gather and systematize basic data on all large cities. Davis and Golden utilized to some extent this work to have an index relating degree of urbanization and economic development. This index of urbanization is a measure of percentage of population living in cities of certain size (20,000 and 100,000) to the total population. They based their assumptions on a hierarchal classification of cities were the proportion in any major size-class tends to bear a systematic relation to the proportion in the other lower size classes. B. The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in the World As a hypothetical case, suppose a few children were left to grow in a large natural area where water streams, food and fruit trees were scattered everywhere. When this generation grew up they would accommodate themselves in a manner which was the most convenient to the individual to obtain his food, his water and a shelter. Since their demand was not scarce and the land was nearly homogeneous this society would be formed as a loose primitive society scattered everywhere.

-106Suppose water dried except in a few main rivers or streams, this society would gradually move nearer to the scarce but vital resource. The concentration then would be along the water streams. If somehow methods of cultivating land and growing new products had been discovered as well as some hand tools, then this society would change its course of life and become more tied to their land. When population grows and cultivated areas increase, water would be scarce for drinking and irrigation purposes, especially in low water level seasons, then this society would have to gather together to regulate the distribution of water in that period. They would set up some irrigation projects, perhaps constructing canals. Following the distribution of cultivated land, this society cannot concentrate at one area and go to their fields and come back each day, but they could concentrate in small scattered groups to form villages. Due to change of soil fertility, weather conditions, water availability and long experience of producing an agriculture product, then we can easily assume that specialization would take its place among this society. When specialization was clearly recognized, trade would start between the villageso The amount of trade would depend on the distance between the villages, the degree of specialization, and the degree of advancement of transportationo Agglomeration of people in itself is a hard strata on which specialization in production other than agriculture can stand, and this would lead to more and more trade and central places to be formed.

-107Education, culture, advance in technology, ease of transportation and communications, utilization of natural resources and expiration of industry are all factors which change a rural society to an urban society and in the meantime would increase the degree and rate of urbanization. The above hypothetical case reflects reality abstracted from the observation of origin and growth of urbanization throughout the history. A brief summary of that history is given belowo It has been observed also that the rates of growth are much higher during the past century-and-a-half than at any previous time in the world history. For any country the rate of urban growth accelerates when a sudden innovation and industrial development start, this acceleration then progressively increases until a relatively new social rearrangement takes place then it begins to decelerateo For the same state of development newly developing countries witness higher urban growth rates than these realized in old developed countries. 1. Urbanization in the World(20) In the Neolithic* period population was more densely settled than the purely hunting or food gathering peoples, it was nevertheless chiefly engaged in an occupation -agriculture —which requires a large amount of land per person. The Neolithic population density was therefore not a matter of town concentration but rather a matter of tiny villages scattered over the lando *Characterized by the use of polished stone implements, and many cultural advances, as pottery making, domestication of animals) cultivation of grain, fruit trees, linen weaving, etc,

-108Definite things had to be added to the Neolithic complex to make possible the first towns. Between 6000 and 4000 B.C. such inventions would be the ox-drawn plow and wheeled cart, the sailboat, metallurgy, irrigation, and the domestication of new plants. When this enriched technology was utilized in certain unusual regions, where climate, soil, water and topography were most favorable, the result was sufficiently productive economy to make possible urban existence. The size of towns and cities therefore, required in addition to highly favorable agriculture conditions, a form of social organization in which certain strata could appropriate for themselves part of the produce grown by the cultivators. Such strata-religious and governing officials, traders, and artisians —could live in towns, because their power over goods did not depend on their presence on the land as such. They could thus realize the advantages of two livings, which gave them additional power over the cultivators. The first cities, doubtless small and hard to distinguish from towns, seem to have appeared in the most favorable places sometime between 6000 and 5000 B.C. From that time on, it can be assumed that some of the inventions which made larger settlements possible were due to towns and cities themselves, writing and accountancy, bronze, the beginnings of science, a solar calendar, and bureaucracy. By 3000 B.C. when these innovations were all exercising an influence in Egypt, Mesopotamia, and India, there were in existance what may be called "true" cities.

-109Urbanization was so little in ancient times and it proceeded very slowly. The walls of ancient Babylon, for example, embraced an area of very roughly 3.2 square miles, and "Ur, with its canals, harbors, and temples, occupied some 220 acres; the walls of Erech encompassed an area of within 2 square miles. This suggests that the Jameus Ur could hardly have boosted more than 5,000 inhabitants and Erech hardly more than 25,000." Less is known about the earliest Egyptian cities, for they were built with mud bricks and have long since disappeared beneath the alluvial soil. Tell el Amarna, the temporary capital built much later, about 1400 B.C., perhaps held something like 40,000 people. The wall of Hotep-Sanusert, an arbor capital built about 1900 B.C. on the Fayum, measured 350 by 400 meters, and enclosed an area of approximately onetwentieth of a square mile. Thebes, at the height of its splendor as the capital of Egypt about 1600, was described by Greek writers as having a circumference of 14 miles. By a liberal estimate it may have contained 222,000 inhabitants. To the questions why even largest cities prior to 1000 B.C. were small by modern standards.? Why even the small ones were relatively few, and why the degree of urbanization even in the most advanced regions was very slight? The answer seems as follows: 1) low agriculture productivity due to a low level of technology, so that many cultivators are required to support one man in the city, 2) the technology of transport was as labor-intensive as that of agriculture, 3) there were political limitations due to the difficulty of communications and

-110transport as well as the existence of multifarious local tribal cultures made the formation of large national units virtually impossible. The first urban-centered units were city-states, and when so-called "empires" were formed, as in Egypt, in Sumerian region, and later in Assyria, much local autonomy was left to the subordinated areas, and the constant danger of revolt prevented the exertion of the hinterlands of the cities very far or very effectively. 2. Subsequent City Development The Greco-Roman world of Europe (600 B.C. to 400 A.D.) expanded urbanization with relatively higher rates. Iron tools and weapons, alphabetic writing, improved sailboats, cheap coinage, more democratic institutions, systematic colonization —all tended to increase production, stimulate trade, and expand the effective political unit. Towns and cities became more numerous the degree of urbanization became greater. A few cities reached a substantial size. Athens, at its peak in the fifth century B.C., achieved a population of between 120,000 and 180,000. The full potentialities of the ancient world to support a large city were realized only with the Romans. They were able to create Rome (with the possible exception of Constantinople some centuries later) the largest city that was to be known in the world until the rise of London in the nineteenth century. Yet despite the fact that Rome and Constantinople came to hold populations of several hundred thousands, they were not able to resist conquest by far less urbanized outsiders.

-111When finally towns and cities began to revive, they were small, as the following estimates suggest: Florence (1338), 90,000; Venice (1442), 190,000; Antwerp (sixteenth century), 200,000; London (1377), 30,000; Nurenbery (1450), 20,165; Frankfort (1440), 8,719. In western Europe, starting at the zero point, the development of cities not only reached the stage that the ancient world had achieved but kept going on after that. It kept going on the basis of improvements in agriculture and transport, the opening of new lands and new trade routes, and above all, the rise in productive activity, first, in highly organized handicraft and eventually in a revolutionary new form of production —the factory run by machinery and fossil fuel. The transformation thus achieved in the nineteenth century was the true urban revolution, for it meant not only the rise of a few scattered towns and cities but the appearance of genuine urbanization, in the sense that a substantial portion of the population lived in towns and cities. 3. The World Trend from 1800 to 1950 Urbanization has, in fact, gone ahead much faster and reached proportions far greater during the past century and a half than at any previous time in the world history. The tremendous growth in world trade during this period has enabled the urban population to draw its substance from an even wider area. The rapidity of urbanization in recent times can be seen by looking at the most urbanized country, England, In 18G1-, although London had already reached nearly the million mark (850,000), England

-112and Wales had less than 10 per cent of their population in cities of 100,000 or more. By 1901 this percentage increased to 35 per cent, and 58 per cent was living in cities of 20,000 or more. By 1951 these two proportions had risen to 38.4 and 69.3 per cent, respectively. TABLE XII PERCENTAGE OF WORLD'S POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES Cities of Cities of 20,000 or 100,000 or more more 1800 2.4 1.7 1850 4.3 2.3 1900 9.2 5.5 1950 20.9 13.1 Britain was in the van of urban development. A degree of urbanization equal to that she attained in 1801 was not achieved by any other country until after 1850. Thereafter the British rate of urbanization began slowly to decline, whereas that of most other countries continued at a high level. From Table XII it can be seen that the proportion has tended to do a bit better than double itself each half century and that by 1950 the world as a whole was considerably more urbanized than Britain in 1800. Much of this increase has obviously come from ruralurban migration, clearly the most massive migration in modern times. In 1800 there were apparently less than 50 cities with 100,000 or more inhabitants. This was less than the number in the million class today and less than the number of 100,000 plus cities currently found in many single countries. By 1950 there were close to 900 cities of 100,000 or more people which is more than the number of towns and cities of 5,000 or more in 1800.

-113As yet, there is no indication of a slackening of the rate of urbanization in the world as a whole. If the present rate should continue, more than a fourth of the earth's people will be living in cities of 100,000 or more in the year 2000, and more than half in the year 2050. For places of 20,000 or more, the proportions at the two dates would be something like 45 per cent and 90 per cent. 4. The Regional Pattern of Urbanization The highest levels of urbanization are found today in northwestern Europe and in those new regions where northwestern Europeans have settled and extended their industrial civilization as it is clearly shown in Table XIII. Of the fifteen most urbanized countries in the world, all but one, Japan, are European in culture, and all but four derive that culture from the northwest and central part of Europe. TABLE XIII PERCENTAGE OF WORLD'S POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES BY REGIONS In Cities of In Cities of Region 20,000 plus 100,000 plus World 21 13 Oceania 47 41 North America (Canada, U.S.A.) 35 21 Europe (except U.S.S.R.) 35 21 South America 26 18 Middle America and Caribbean 21 12 Asia (except U.S.S.R.) 13 8 Africa 4 5 U.S.S.R 31 18

-114The rate of urbanization in the older industrial countries, however, is slowing down. During the twenty years from 1870 to 1890, Germany's proportion of large cities was more than doubled; it nearly doubled again from 1890 to 1910; but from 1910 to 1960 the increase was only 36 per cent. In Sweden the gain slowed down noticeably after 1920. In England and Wales the most rapid urbanization occurred between 1811 and 1851. Contrary to popular belief, the fastest rate in the U.S. occurred between 1861 and 1891. Since, as we noted earlier, there has been no slowing down of urbanization in the world as a whole, it must be that as the more established industrial countries have slackened, the less developed countries have exhibited a faster rate. In fact, such historical evidence as we have for underdeveloped areas, seems to show that their rates of urbanization have been rising in recent decades. This has been the case in Egypt, where the rate is higher after 1920 than before; in India, where the fastest urbanization has occurred since 1941; in Mexico, where the speed-up began in 1921; and in Greece, where the fastest period ran from 1900 to 1930. Asia, for example, had only 22 per cent of the world city population in 1900 but 34 per cent of it in 1950, and Africa had 1.5 per cent in 1900 but 3.2 per cent at the later date. C. Urbanization and Social Change We notice from the previous outline of the history of urbanization that at anytime any technical achievement was followed up by a chain of social change which finally contributed in one way or another

-115to urbanization expansion. Literacy is the soil in which know how and innovations grow. Illiterate societies are underdeveloped and less urbanized. Developed countries are defined as those countries which have less than fifty per cent of their economically active males in agricultural pursuits, including hunting, fishing, and forestry; underdeveloped countries or the pre-industrial countries are those having fifty per cent or more of their gainful males working in agriculture. 1. Economic Development and Culture Change Hilda Golden found that underdeveloped(21) countries are highly illiterate with the striking exception of those in Europe. This has been indicated in Table XIV. The correlation coefficient equals to.87 while, if we measure the degree of development by the per capita income, the coefficient equals to.84. There are two groups of countries which deviate from the expected regression line by 20 per cent or more. The first group includes countries which are "more literate than industrial." Those countries are: Bulgaria, Columbia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Finland, Panama, Philippines, Poland, Romania, and Thailand. The second group includes countries which are "less illiterate than industrial" among which are: Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nepal, Union of South Africa.

-116TABLE XIV PERCENTAGE OF ILLITERATES IN THE POPULATION AGED 10 YEARS AND OVER Developed Underdeveloped All Countries Countries Countries World 47 6 70 North America 2 2 Oceania 8 3 20 Europe 11 1 88 U.S.S.R. 11 11 South America 42 17 51 Middle America 48 20 52 Asia 70 2 75 Africa 88 55 91 The growth in diffusion of literacy in pre-industrial countries is closely tied to the growth and diffusion of an urban-industrial civilization. In brief, the diffusion beyond a comparable point of economic development, or the retardation behind that point, derives from factors relating to national goals and the cost of achieving widespread literacy and education. In Bulgaria prior to independence, for example, wealthy people considered it their duty to open and maintain schools despite the opposition of the Turkish State; on the contrary the elite of the Arab states of the Ottoman Empire showed no such interest. The modernization of peasant-agricultural countries is usually conceived of as a moving equilibrium in which no one element can for long be out of line with the others because they are functionally interdependent. On this basis we would expect that countries in which educational retardation was considerable and has lasted for some time would now make relatively greater headway educationally than economically.

-117In the nineteenth century Egypt's economic development, though spasmodic, took place faster than educational change. During the first three decades of this century both industrial and educational advances were slight. Since about 1930, educational progress has been faster than economic development, despite the fact than during the period of World War II economic change was rapid. Egypt seems to have entered the phase in which for some time educational advance will remain faster than economic development which may turn later into equal rates of economic and educational development. Of course, there is a drastic change that has taken place since 1954 which will be covered later. Table XV shows the diffusion of some countries from their expected regression line. It should be clear that urban-industrial civilization depends on educational achievement. We may find as in the case of Egypt when educational growth was faster than economic growth, urbanization was taking place but it was only a demographic urbanization and by no way can we apply the structural and behavioral definitions of urbanization to our case. If, as I proposed in Chapter I, we can narrow our demographic definition by some restricting elements as degree of literacy and level of per capita income, we can have another and a true picture of urbanization in Egypt.

-118TABLE XV PER CENT ILLITERATES IN POPULATION AGED 10 YEARS OR MORE Actual Estimated Actual-Estimated India 1911 93 64 29 1921 92 65 27 1931 91 64 27 1941 85 67 18 1951 80 61 19 Egypt 1907 93 67 26 1917 91 62 29 1927 86 56 30 1937 85 61 24 1947 75 51 24 1960 56 40 16 U.S.S.R. 1926 49 80 -31 1939 19 39 -20 Brazil 1940 57 61 - 4 1950 52 52 0 U.S.A. 1870 20 37 -17 1910 7 5 - 2 2. Urbanization and Agricultral Density From the last paragraphs we found that when literacy spreads, economic development is stimulated in a fashion of a moving equilibrium point so as to close the gap between them when one moves with a faster rate than the other. Literacy in itself, working solely or together with economic development, stimulates also a migration movement from rural to urban areas. Literacy usually changes the status and behavior

-119which reject the rural life leading people of the new class to move to urban areas and not come back anymore. Not only the status and behavioral change stimulated from a spread of literacy of education makes a shift from rural to urban migration, but also this shift is a matter of efficiency which increases when technology increases and a surplus of labor is accumulated which diminishes the return of land if this accumulation continues. Kingesley proved that there is no relation existing between the degree of urbanization and the average density of population. But there is a negative relationship between urbanization and what we call agricultural density which is defined as the number of gainful males occupied with agriculture, hunting, and forestry per square mile of cultivated land. Table XVI explains proof of this fact. TABLE XVI RELATION BETWEEN DEGREE OF URBANIZATION AND AGRICULTURAL DENSITY Percent of Population in Agricultural Cities of 100,000 plus Males/sq mile 0 - 9.9 136 10 - 19.9 72 20 - 29.9 67 30 and up 13 It is also true that farmer population may diminish not only as a proportion of the total population, but also in absolute terms as it has happened in the United States and several other industrial

-120countries in recent decades. This actually happens when profits or wages from industry are higher than from agriculture so that farmers who have to keep their living standards matched with those who moved to urban areas to increase their cultivated land. D. Urbanization and the Development of Pre-Industrial Areas Three-fourths of the world's population lives in the preindustrial countries. Although these countries are mainly rural, they are all urbanized to some degree because of the commercial impact of the industrial nations. Consequently, we find that the pre-industrial countries contain as many cities as do the industrial countries as in Table XVII. TABLE XVII DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD'S LARGE CITIES AND CITY POPULATION BY DEGREE OF AGRICULTURALISM OF COUNTRIES (1950) % of Active Pop. in % of Total Males in No. of No. of % of all Cities City Agriculture Countries Cities Cities (000's) Population o - 29 22 286 31.9 101,438 32.2 30 - 49 14 148 16.5 53,721 17.1 50 - 69 33 257 32.0 97,429 30.9 70 - plus 86 176 19.6 62,478 19.8 Total 155 867 100.0 315,067 100.0 We have seen before that there is a positive correlation between urbanization and industrialization and the negative association between urbanization and agricultural density.

-121In 1800 the population in large cities was distributed over the earth in much the same fashion as the general population, When shifts in technological advances happened, this was followed by simultaneous shifts from agricultural to industrial activities. Also, industry itself was affected by those technological changes which opened the way for its development and spread. This was also followed by an increase of degree of urbanization, which led to widening of the gap between advanced and unadvanced countries due to the time required for the geographical cross-cultural spread of radically new type of equipments and social organizations. In advanced countries, as the proportion of the population living in cities becomes greater and greater, the chance of maintaining the rate of increase in that proportion becomes less and less. Furthermore, we know that the growth of cities has been mainly a result of rural-urban migration, which has contributed in times, far more to urban numbers than the natural increase in cities could ever contribute. As the rural proportion declines to a small fraction of the total population, the cities have an ever smaller pool of people to draw on for the maintenance of growth rates. In the same time the rate of urbanization has been increasing in most underdeveloped regions. There is, thus, going on today a balancing of accounts throughout the world. As a result the next fifty or one-hundred years may find the city population once again distributed roughly in proportion to the world's total population.

-122There are few (out-of-the-way) places as Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and some African territories who have urban expansion failure to make much headway. These countries are few in number and population. As a group, pre-industrial countries have 7 per qent of their population in cities of 100,000 or more, and 11 per cent in 20,000 (1950). The general picture is, therefore, one of fast urbanization comparable to that experienced at earlier periods in the new industrialized nations. Pre-industrial countries are not all alike. Some are more urbanized than others because of differences in demography, economy, and society. It therefore, becomes instructive to consider particular countries which present types of cases, types that may re-occur in various underdeveloped countries but are not found everywhere within the pre-industrial category. 1. The Case of India Other than the direct results noticed in Table XVIII, we may say that there is some tendency for urbanization to run ahead of other aspects of development, but not noticeably except with respect to TABLE XVIII INDIA'S RELATIVE POSITION ON SELECTED INDICES % of World's Pop. in Countries Ahead % of Countries of India Ahead of India Non-agriculture employment 51 43 Agricultural density 57 69 Urbanization 59 51 Literacy 92 68 Per Capita Income 57 73

-123educational development. The per cent of India's population living in large cities is about the same as that of the United States in 1855. But urbanization is proceeding somewhat more slowly in India than in the United States at that time, and it went much more slowly in the early periods. From the year 1820 to 1860 in the United States, the average gain per decade in proportion of living in large cities was 63 per cent, while in India it was 22 per cent from 1891 to 1951, in spite of the fact that progress can be faster the more recently it occurs. This is not proving to be true in India, at least so far as urbanization is concerned. In 1891, India was about 55 years behind the U.S., by 1931 she was over 90 years behind. After 1931, however, India's rate of urbanization increased remarkably, almost equaling the U.S. gain at similar levels. How long she will continue to do so is hard to say, and if she does continue, it may be a coincidence of "over-urbanization" such as seems to occur occasionally in other densely populated agrarian countries. This possibility is suggested by the apparently static character of India's occupational structure for the proportion of occupied males in agriculture has shown virtually no sign of change for several decades. 2. Revolutionary New Urbanization in Africa In cases such as in India, Egypt, Korea, and Greece we are confronted with countries that have long experienced the phenomenon of cities and which have old and complex civilizations. In central and west Africa, on the other hand, we find ourselves in a totally different

-124kind of underdeveloped region —one in which primitive tribal life, completely rural in character, has been the dominant mode of existence until very recently. It is still a region of unlettered rurality, its people getting their subsistance mainly by hoe agriculture, by herding, or by hunting and fishing. Yet, into this still heavily primitive region is now being thrust an extremely rapid and patently modern city development. The urbanization that is rapidly taking place is not the urbanization of the late medieval period in Europe, not the urbanization of the 18th century and 19th century; it is rather the urbanization of the 20th century. This sudden juxtaposition of 20th century cities and extremely primitive cultures gives rise in some respect to a cheaper rural-urban contrast than can be found anywhere else in the world. Table XIX shows the unbelievable rates of growth of many rising cities in these areas. Most of these areas have been opened to European economic penetration only since World War I, and the area has more virtually unexploited primary resources than any other major area of the world. Both agricultural and mineral products commanded high prices during the war, so that it was worthwhile to expand their exploitation with modern scientific techniques at the most rapid pace possible. There was a flight of private and public capital from the politically insecure countries of Europe to the potentially rich colonies of Africa. What will be the result of this process of rapid.and revolutionary urbanization in central and west Africa? On the whole,the

-125TABLE XIX POPULATION OF SOME MIDDLE AFRICAN CITIES Population (in 000 s) 1930 1940 1950 Abidjan 22 162 Accra 70 136 Braggaville 25 83 Dabar 165 209 Elisabethville 101 Kane 89 102 Lagos 126 230 Leopoldville 34 211 Luanda 67 159 Nombasa 57 85 Nairobi 65 119 prospect for complete and early male migration would seem better than in India and Egypt, because the area possesses huge potential resources and a relatively sparse population. The rest of the world, crowded and hungry for industrial raw materials, needs these resources. Thus, there is every indication that, barring a world catastrophe, the demand for Africa's primary products will increase and that the region will continue its fast pace of city building. The efficiencies created by wholesale importation of urban and industrial technology will probably provide an adequate economic base for a quick transition to modern conditions. Doubtless, as the tribal peoples recover from the initial shock of quick and massive contact with twentieth-century culture, their natural increase will be great and populations will grow for a while, but the urbanization process maybe so rapid that before overwhelmingly dense rural populations are built up, fertility will start

-126declining again and the natural increase will be lowered to manageable proportions. In other words, there is a chance for urbanization to acquire an early predominance as it has done in prosperous new areas such as Australia or Argentina rather than be bogged down in a swamp of densely settled peasant-agriculturalism as in most of Asia. 3. Case of Egypt: An Over-Urbanized Country (Up to 1950) If we represent the relationship between urbanization, and degree of non-agriculturalism, by a regression curve, certain countries are found to be off the line to a significant extent. One of these is Egypt, which has far more urbanization than its degree of economic development would lead us to expect. In this sense, Egypt is "overurbanized." This case is also found in certain underdeveloped areas (notably Greece and Korea, and probably Lebanon). How far out of line Egypt is, can be seen from the following figures in Table XX. TABLE XX URBANIZATION IN EGYPT AS COMPARED BY SOME OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Percent of Population in Cities 100,000 plus 20,000 plus Switzerland - 1950 20.6 31.2 Egypt - 1947 19.3 28.5 Sweden - 1945 17.4 29.2 France - 1946 16.6 31.9 Egypt - 1960 27.4 36.8 There is no doubt that Egypt was not industralized as well as or by no means approached the three other countries. Yet, she is

-127nearly as urbanized as Switzerland and is more urbanized on the 100,000+ level than Sweden or France. This case is not of recent origin, but has characterized the country for at least forty years as Table XXI shows. TABLE XXI EXPECTED AND ACTUAL URBANIZATION IN EGYPT 1907-1960 Per Cent of Population in Per Cent of Occupied Males in Cities 100,000 plus Non-Agricultural Activities Expected Actual 1907 27 6.6 8.7 1917 30 7.9 9.7 1927 34 9.7 12.2 1937 31 8.4 13.3 1947 38 11.4 19.3 1960 44 16.2 27.4 In fact, Egypt's cultivated rural area is to an extraordinary degree densely settled and impoverished. The density is a product of rapid population growth for a century and a half and the inability of the economy to expand its non-agricultural sector proportionally.(22) The poverty is due to the same factors plus the familiar pattern of tenancy associated with large landholdings where absentee owners live in the cities or live outside the nation. The city gathers to itself practically everybody who does not actually have to work the land to get a living. On the basis of the 1947 census, it has been estimated that only 10 per cent of the occupied males living in rural places, are engaged in non-agricultural pursuits. The data indicate, that about 92 per cent of women aged 15 and over in Cairo and Alexandria are economically inactive.

-128Such facts show that the densely settled and impoverished countryside in Egypt is pushing people into the cities because they have no other alternative. When they get into the cities, it is perhaps harder for the government to let them starve, and may run some chance of picking up some crumbs from the wealthy who inhabit only the cities. Issawi has presented evidence showing a sharp decline in the per capita consumption of staple items in Egypt from 1920 to 1937. Much of the migration to the cities seems, therefore, to be a refugee migration to the country side where increased population, diminished size of holdings, and absentee landlord exactions have gradually squeezed out families by the thousands. Our case of over-urbanization gives also significance by virtue of the fact that some other underdeveloped countries exhibit the same phenomenon. T. O. Wilkinson, working in the comparative urban research program at Columbia University, has shown that Korea after Japanese occupation in 1916, had its economic development lag far behind urbanization.(23) A similar tendency toward over-urbanization seems to have occurred in Greece and may occur in the future in India and some other underdeveloped areas. Davis,K. and Golden wrote from the standpoint of future economic growth "...those considerations standout. First, over-urbanization surely has its limits. It is possible for city growth to get ahead of general modernization, but not very far ahead for very long. If there is economic stagnation, urban growth itself must ultimately close. In Egypt

-129we can expect, then, that either the rate of urbanization will fall off sharply or industrialization will gain a new impetus. Second, overurbanization may have some effect in stimulating economic growth. Insofar as the city represents an efficient locale for non-agricultural production (as we believe it does), the accumulation of people in cities represents at least a potential setting for enhanced output. Also, in the process of modernizing agricultures, the more people who can be moved off the land, the better. Third, it is primarily in the cities that the leadership and the mobile following for revolutionary activities are to be found. Over-urbanization, as we have analyzed it, is well calculated to provoke the maximum discontent in the population. Faced with idle, impoverished, and rootless urban masses, the government is forced to take drastic action or to allow itself to be displaced by a new revolutionary group. Since economic development is often hindered by out moded institutional and political arrangements, the rate of urbanization in fostering revolutionary activities (whether communist or not) can be said to be potentially favorable to change.* It should be emphasized, however, that we are speaking of potentialities. Whether or not these potentialities are in fact realized depends on other factors in the situation. Urbanization, and particularly over-urbanization is only one of several major variables in industrial change, and so it is wise to avoid the appearance of determinism with reference to its role." Comments on this analysis will be carried on through the following discussion. *It has been shown for example, that communist revolutions are largely implemented by the urban intellectual leadership and not by discontented peasants. The urban leadership is needed to mobilize and4direct the revolutionary energy which peasant discontent supplies.

-130E. Classification of Urban Areas in Egypt In looking for the future of urbanization in Egypt, we shall be mistaken if we generalize the concept of over-urbanization to all urbanized areas in the country. Some urbanized areas in Egypt, in most of their main parts, can compete with the western standards in the degree of modernization and living, at the same time, most of the urbanized areas, as it was mentioned before, lost their roots of urbanism. I think it will be more healthy if we try to put our fingers on the weak points which are waiting for some solutions, and the other prosperous areas which may be the nucleus for most of the new population and activity shifts to build up and parallel with the new phenomena of the twentieth century of the creation of the great metropolis. Of course, this is a tough assignment especially when statistical information is lacking. What is needed here is something relating the urban areas with their activities and income. 1. Rank Size Distribution Using the 1960 census of population of Egypt, we can rank the agglomeration of the Egyptian population according to the size of each settlement in rank size classes according to their population. Table XXII together with Table I in Appendix B indicates the results of this process. Figure 30 shows the rank size distribution of cities and towns as well as small villages when plotted on a log-log paper; population is indicated on the vertical axis and the rank of the city on the horizontal.

-13110000000 I I I I I I I, I I I i i 1 1000000 _ 100000 w - X ILLJ 0 N 10000 C,) 1000 10 100 1000 10001 RANK OF SETTLEMENT Figure 30. Rank Size Distribution in Egypt.

TABLE XXII* RANK SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION SETTLEMENTS IN EGYPT (1960) CENSUS From: 0 1001 2501 5,001 10,001 20,001 50,001 Class To: 1000 2500 5000 10,000 20,000 50,000 100,000 Population (000)s 239 2107 4925 6291 2,708 1,889 522 Per Cent of Total Population 0.9 8.2 19.1 24.5 10.5 7.3 2.1 Number of Settlements 378 1194 1358 922 210 65 8 Average Population/Settlement 631 1765 3765 6833 12,894 29,058 65,267 From: 100,001 250,001 500,001 1,000,001 More than Class To: 250,000 500,000 1,000,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 Population (000)s 1,642 835 -- 1,516,234 3,348,779** Per Cent of Total Population 6.4 2.1 -- 5.9 13.0 Number of Settlements 10 2 -- 1 1 Average Population/Se'tlement 164,646 267,325 -- 1,516,234 3,348,779 *Source: 1960 Census of Population. **This is the population of the city of Cairo and not its M.P.A. which reaches up to 3,848,033 including Border: El-Giza (1), El-Giza (2), Imbaba and Shoubra El-Khima as well as Kism El-Ahram.

-133This figure indicates that there are four or five types of population in Egypt. The first is that which lives in Cairo and Alexandria, the two great metropolis of Egypt, and could be distinguished by Part I in Figure 30. This population is completely urbanized and they maintain almost the highest level of living standards in Egypt. The second group of people is identified by the upper section of Part II which include some relatively large cities which have a great potentiality of becoming great metropolis, that can fill the gap between Parts I and II in a long period of time. Part III of the figure indicates a mixed population approaching complete urbanization at the upper part and a great deal of ruler population in the lower part. The upper part of Part III indicates also that the cities included in that portion are trying vigorously to divert from the traditional trend which is signified by the straight line trend of the lower portion. Part IV of the figure includes a great portion of the Egyptian population which inhabits large rural towns living under a great pressure to move outwards to large cities. Part V includes the rural villages ranging from an average of 600 to 4,000 inhabitants. 2. Administrative Classification of Regions in Egypt Administrative classification of the Egyptian regions could be summarized as follows: a. The "Governorates." Egypt is divided into twenty-five political and administrative areas called "Governorates" which are similar to the "States" in the U.S.A.

-134Each has an appointed Governor which has special political leadership. He holds some local administrative and planning powers but not as complete as in the case of U.S.A. Five of these governorates are the only major cities of Egypt: namely, Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said, Ismailia and Suez. They are truely urban areas and their total population is 5,598,056. In the last census of 1960 the Governorates of Red Sea, New Valley, Matrouh and Sinai were considered urban although they include many areas which could be safely considered as rural. These four governorates are the east and west borders of the country and their population is only 212,606. The Delta of the Nile includes eight governorates which are inhabited by 10,932,361 persons, 20 per cent of which are urbanized. The governorates of the Delta are large and the people are more cultured than are the people of Upper Egypt. The mid-south of the Delta is more prosperous and people are more educated, but when we go north, east or (25) west, income and culture reduces with distances.(25) Upper Egypt includes also eight governorates which are inhabited by 9,260,878 people;about 20 per cent of them are urbanized. The first five mentioned governorates are truly urbanized. Although they include only 21.5 per cent of the countries population they have about 70 per cent of the industrial establishments of more than five persons in each establishment. Table XXIII indicates the distribution of industry among these five cities and the rest of the country.

TABLE XXIII DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRY BETWEEN THE URBANIZED GOVERNORATES AND THE REST OF THE COUNTRY 26) Numbers of Establishments of 5-9 10-49 50-100 200 Governorates Population Persons Persons Persons Persons Total Cairo 3,348,779 816 1,233 245 93 2,387 Alexandria 1,516,234 251 411 114 99 875 Port Said 245,318 34 22 10 6 72 Ismailia 284,115 11 13 4 1 29 Suez 203,610 7 23 - 4 34 1 Total 5,598,056 1,119 1,702 373 203 3,397 Total as % of Country 21.5% 72% 76% 61% 60% 70% (26) Source: "Dalile El-Sinaat", Industrial Index; Ministry of Industry, June, 1963.

-136For establishments of more than 200 persons, the five governorates contain 59% of these establishments, only about 50% of the number of workers and 44% of the total investment. Table II, Appendix B shows the distribution of economic activity in each governorate as well as the degree of literacy. It could be easily identified from this table that Cairo, Alexandria and Port Said are leading in the degree of literacy. Except in Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said, El-Suez, Red Sea and Sinai, agriculture is the leading economic activity within the governorate's population. Because of their location El-Giza as well as El-Kaliobia (the newest governorates to Cairo), Dimiatta (on the Mediteranean), and Aswan (the southern border governorate) have the least proportions of agriculture activities among other governorates excluding the exceptional ones. Only one governorate, Alexandria, had manufacturing as a leading economic activity. In general,with exclusion of agriculture activity, services are the highest economic activity for most of the governorates; its degree increases with literacy and degree of urbanization. Cairo and Alexandria are the two largest industrial centers in Egypt. There are several reasons for the concentration of industry in these two major cities which, according to the 1960 general census of population, have between them 20% of the country's total population. First of all, as large urban centers, Cairo and Alexandria have a higher concentration of effective demand than elsewhere in Egypt, and at the same time they provide the human resources needed for industry as the skilled technicians and professionals such as the

-137scientists, consultants, administrators, engineers, entrepleneurs, accountants, clerks, other office workers, and the industrial labor force. With respect to industrial workers, both cities offer a more dependable and more flexible supply of workers than do other parts of the country and especially more than the rural areas. Continuous migrations of workers from adjacent and far away provinces in both Lower and Upper Egypt to Cairo and Alexandria keep feeding the labor market. Moreover, as the rate of literacy in the two cities is significantly higher than in the rest of Egypt, the supply of skilled and semiskilled labor is more elastic and the workers more economical to train for industrial operations. At the time of the introduction of modern industrial development in Egypt, both Cairo and Alexandria were focal points for the railway system. Moreover, Cairo was an important inland Nile port, the pivotal point between Upper and Lower Egypt. As the largest and best equipped seaport in the country, Alexandria commanded for centuries, a (27) position as one of the world's dominant commercial cities, (27)and as such, was the center of the imported equipment needed for industry in Egypt on the one hand, and for the export of agricultural and finished products, such as cotton, rice, onion, cotton yarn, textiles, leather, and cigarettes on the other. Also, certain industries appear to flourish particularly in Alexandria. These industries include the extraction of salt (from Lake Mariout), cotton pressing (near the shipping quay) and leather tanning (near the slaughter-house).

-138While both Cairo and Alexandria were known to have the heavy concentration of skilled workers necessary for industries, in some ways Alexandria showed advantages even over Cairo. Part of this may be attributed to the opportunities Alexandrian workers had for learning their trade as apprentices under the supervision of foreigners. Alexandrian workers enjoy relatively high wages, which may have contributed to the migration of skilled workers from different parts of Egypt. (27) Looking eastward,we find a chain of modern cities which owe their modernization to the construction of the Suez Canal. The Canal business was very properous and in turn it reflected its prosperity on those urbanized areas built up by the imaginary high income groups of Europeans who settled there. All but a negligible fraction of the high salary workers and employees of the Suez Canal Company were foreigners, while the trivial jobs were given to Egyptians, a matter which created a high contrast between the standard of living of the two groups living in the same urban area. It was natural, therefore, to hear about the "European District" which had been ultra-modernized surrounded by the "People's Districts" or the slums. Anyhow, the Suez Canal offered many job opportunities for natives who were better off than the "fallahine" in the rural areas. Port-Said and Suez became two main ports offering other opportunities for minor maintenance and repairs for passing ships, also they provided ships with water and food supplies as well as some trades with passengers.

-139Ismailia is the administrative city for the Suez Canal Company; it is in the midway between Port-Said to the north and Suez to the south. Also, it has a better connection with the Nile Delta through the navigable Ismailia Canal to the north of Cairo. The three cities are connected with Cairo and other parts of the Delta by railroads and good highways. b. The "Bander" This category of administrative classification indicates the central urban cities for agricultural areas. Consequently they contain all the capitals of the governorates and all industrial cities or centers. Table III in Appendix B shows the distribution of economic activities among the populations of these cities as well as their degree of literacy. According to that table, there are 23 "Banders" in the Nile Valley area inhabited by 1,950,593. The labor force is about 26% of the total population, 6.3% are engaged in agriculture, 22.0% in manufacture, 44.0o in services and 27.7% in other economic activities. These cities have relatively fair degree of literacy with the exception of those which hold the highest percentages in agricultural and manufacturing activities. Only one city has a university and two others are on their way of building up universities, but most of them have technical institutes. These cities also provide the best high schools of each governorates. Since most of these cities are administrative cities, service activities are extremly high, higher than aiy other activities with the exception of Dimiatta, El-Mahalla, El-Kobra and Shoubra El-Khima where manufacturing is leading all other economic activities

-140The most characterized two cities are Aswan and Dimiatta. Both have their location as well as other potentialities which make us believe that they will grow too fast, It became a fact now that Aswan will be one of the cities of the future. The High Dam as well as its location near the southern borders and the presence of some natural resources lead us to that conclusion. Also because of the politics which it was and still is involved in. According to the 1960 census there were about 13,400 workers in that city involved in nonagriculture activities. In May, 1964 more than 30,000 workers were engaged in the construction of the first stage of the Aswan High Dam. Plans are now prepared by international experts to create a highly industrialized region in Aswan to consume the laborers of the High Dam after its completion. Dimiatta has the potentialities of its location and the many skills among its population especially furniture industry. In general most of these cities (Banders) are not providing a respectable standard of living and they were almost neglected before the Revolution and its following years up until the creation of the local administrative powers in 1960. These cities have a good chance of modernization and growth; if they are given an economic base and their population growth can be limited. c. The "Markaz" Each governorate in Egypt has been divided into a number of counties called "Markaz". The central town or city of each county is also called a "Markaz" which means a center. Usually these cities have population ranging from 5,000 to 20,000 and their functions are:

-141educational centers, commercial centers where the crops (mainly cotton) are collected and ginned, then sent to other manufacturing process in a "Bander". They are also financial centers for agriculture purposes, and lastly they serve as administrative centers. These types of cities are growing too fast on a loose economic base of growth. Their population line is a mixture of urban and mostly rural way of life, and the standard of living is too low. d. Others The last and the most important group is that which include the large villages of purely rural areas. These cities are numerous and their populations range from 2,500 to 20,000 persons each. Most of the people are agrarian workers or small land owners or even jobless people. This group with some parts of the second and third groups are responsible for the "over-urbanization" and over-population of Egypt. F. Forces Governing Urbanization in the Future As Davis, K. and Golden mentioned before, "Forced with idle impoverished, and rootless urban masses, the government is forced to take drastic action or to allow itself to be displaced by a new revolutionary group (whether communist or not)." Thanks for the new nationalist -socialist revolutionary group who saved our necks, we began a new hopeful era starting from 1952. In 1955, "The High Council of National Production" was set up. Its purpose was the planning for the social and economic development. In general, the primary aim of national planning is to insure

-142the welfare of the people by raising their standard of living. This aim is attained by social and economic development, co-ordination of efforts in the public and private sectors and social institution, and by constructive, analytical and statistical research. These researches are of two categories. The first one is concerned with the static or natural elements, such as the volume of the population and their subdivision according to age and sex; the raw materials, natural resources, and other consumption resources; the second one is concerned with the organization and orientation of efforts to utilize these elements wherever needed. The volume and distribution of population is a principle factor in the organization and planning tasks. The realization of a sound system of a nation is:welfare cannot be attained unless social and economic development progresses at the same pace as the increase of population in order that the standard of living be raised parallel to other changes which leadsus to the roots of true urbanization and modernization, Although material production was continually increasing, yet the productive capacity was not keeping pace with the increase of population, and consequently, the per capita income dropped by 7% during the seven years which preceded the Revolution.(28) Naturally this drop led to the decline of the standard of living, The increase of population affects the national economy in two ways. First, the increase of consumption demand of products and commodities; second, the increase of the productive capacity of manpower. If this increased

-143capacity is properly invested, the increase of population will become a factor of development of the social welfare, instead of becoming a menace to the national economy, so long as proper planning takes into consideration the prospective increase of population and their classification according to age and sex, In order to build up our "model" of "style" to study the forces acting to direct the future trends of urbanization in Egypt., three assumptions seem to be relevant in this stage. The first assumption is that the Egyptian national goal (peoples and government), is the general welfare of the entire population through economic efficiency and equity. In fact, the discussion of this assumption is very difficult because it is very obvious. At least, I can refer to the "New York Times", Jano 25, 1965, which may throw some light on the degree of progress achieved during the last 13 years. Yet, it may be preferable to use some statistical information to sketch quickly the change of Egypt's picture since 1952, which is a reflection of the people's goals, although the data are not complete and are not 100% reliable.(29) 1. Education Although education moved sharply at a faster rate since 1930, as was mentioned before, than economic development did, we find that since 1954 extremely faster rates of education and culture changes have been pushed out by the government. It was the nation's desire that free and compulsory education must be put in effect. Primary education increased from one million and a half students in 1952 to two million and a half in 1960, i.e., 8.5%/yro while population increase was 2.5%/yr.

-144Technical education increased from 25,023 to 199,663, college education from 35,500 to 87,000 between 1952 and 1960. During the 10 years beginning from 1942 to 1952 only 55 primary schools were built, while between 1952 and 1960, 1,308 modern schools were built even though their capacity was 77.10% of that needed for compulsory education. This percentage of those who are eligible for compulsory education and can enroll in schools will be raised up to 87.30% in 1964-1965, and l00 in 1969-1970. Some efforts also were put to increase literacy among adults who have not the chance to enroll in schools. This has been done through education for the "Armed Forces", night schools and semi-official associations for laborers and farmers. Rapid culture change, other than education, has been widely spread through the tremendous influence of the newspapers, broadcasting stations, television, and the huge amount of new books published (edited or translated)o It seems to me that education and culture change will play one of the main roles in the future mechanisms of urbanization. 2. Public Health Table XXIV can give an idea about the progress in one part of the public health sector, Consequently, the death rates decreased from 25 per thousand persons to 20, which had its effect on raising up the population growth. The growth of services in this sector is expected to grow faster due to many reasons.

-145TABLE XXIV INCREASE IN HEALTH SERVICES 1952/60 1952 1960 Number of Hospitals 90 150 Number of Beds 6,147 10,278 Number of Outpatients 5,250,000 12,000,000 Number of Patients UsingBeds 133,000 256,000 3. Production Sectors National Income was about 1300 million Egyptian pounds i.e., 52 L.E. per capita in 1960, compared with 39 L.E. per capita in 1952. Industrial increase can be seen from Table XXV (agriculture production is not.available). TABLE XXV INCREASE IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1952/60 Production Value of Output in Millions 1952 1960 Extraction (minerals) 266 L,E, 552 L.E. Extraction (others) 4 8 Petroleum 34 66 Electric Power 10 30 Total Production 314 L.E. 656 L.E. In other sectors where revolutionary actions were taken for the sake of equal opportunities and public welfare, it is needless to calculate the advantages of the'"landreform" laws in 1952, nationalization

-146of major industrial, financial and commercial establishments in 1956 and 1957; and finally, the social laws in 1960 for progressive tax reform, minimum wage rates, labor, share of profits by 25%, and further nationalization of some sectors. The second assumption is that decentralization of industry and other activities will take place in Egypt. In any society, the central government's machinery should not be impeded with the considerations of details at the time when it should concentrate its effort on more important duties such as planning, elaborating programs and following up their progress, The more efficient local authorities become, the lighter the responsibilities of the central authority will be, and thus will be able to proceed with realization of its major objectives. Complete centralization of all authoritative, political, industrial business, and all other sectors, with Cairo as the domaining center has been practiced. Between 1959 and 1962 there was a vast change in most of the sectors and the idea of decentralization has been put in effect. A law of "formation of the councils of local administration" has been established and was put in effect since then for the first time in our modern history. The law has conferred on the councils of the local administration, certain. perogatives in education, municipal, health, social, supply communications, cultural, economical, financial, legislative, and security affairs. Of course, the law put some limitations on their power. It is a long way to discuss the law and its effects, but one thing which is worth mentioning is that the governors of the governorates, cities, and towns were selected from a

-147revolutionary group and technicians. Those governors by their motives created in their areas the resistability for central authorities and the insistance for the local authoritative rights. The third assumption is that Egypt will continue to be a nonaligned country, looking towards better relations with all countries, the policy which is very fruitful for its own economy. Also, I assume that Egypt is continuing to push Arab nationalism and Arab unity towards reality. In the same time Pan Africanism or at least a co-ordinated economic policy between African nations should be emphasized. The three above assumptions, as we shall mention in the following discussion can play a main part in changing the factors which seem to affect future urbanization in Egypto There are two types of forces; those which are accelerating the outward movement of the population, it is meant by outward movement, the movement towards the boundaries of Egypt or the movement off the "Nile Valley". By the people, I mean those who are living in the valley exclusive of those on the sea shores and Cairo. The second type of forces are working as magnetic forces pulling the people inwards to the valley or working as barriers for people to move outwards. G. Pressures for Outward Shifts 1. Education and Culture Change Before, we have seen the close relation between culture change and economic development, which in terms correlates the degree of urbanization and modernization. Education, training, and culture change

-148will motivate drastically the outward movement; those three elements when exercised in most of the pre-industrial communities can result in feeding these communities by more and more information leading to status and technological changes. In communities like that, educated children,as they grow, feel their superiority on the illiterate people whom,in most areas, can be their own family members who had not the chance of education. Usually, high schools are not provided in the group "D" of cities of rural areas.* A large percentage of the students graduating from primary schools enroll for high schools in superior towns or cities, county centers or governorate capitals which are better off than their own towns. There, by their contact with better modernized life, the behavior will gradually change and become really urbanized especially when they continue their education career through college in Cairo or Alexandria. Their new status will push them outwards from their own towns even if they do not have work to do. For sure, their first choice will be the Group A cities, the most modernized cities, assuming the same work opportunities in all cities of all groups. If better opportunities were provided some of them in lower hierarchy cities then their settlement will be a cause for some of the original residents to move outwards. Technological changes by training or technical education will lead to high efficiencies in the agriculture sector which means that lower agriculture labor force will be needed for the same cultivated area, and in turn will create idleness or a cumulated surplus of workers pushing them outwards searching for inferior work or new potential agriculture area, * See page 141

-149In urbanized areas technological change will lead also to higher efficiencies causing lower demand for labor force, as is the case of our railways when diselization of all tractive units was completed, a surplus of workers working by steam units was created. Even through technological changes may lead to a greater total demand of labor forces in the industrial sector by a horizontal increase of industry when using superior materials for new industry, but on the other hand, it leads to more automation, the enemy of labor unions, creating this surplus. 2. The Rate of Growth of Population in Egypt According to the official census, increase in population was as shown in Table XXVI. TABLE XXVI POPULATION GROWTH RATES Year: 1927 1937 1947 1960 No. of People 12,147,169 13,813,120 16,381,950 26,059,000 Average rate of growth/year. 1.93% 2.8% Minimum and maximum official estimates for future population are shown in the following Table XXVII.

-150TABLE XXVII OFFICIAL POPULATION PROJECTION Year Minimum Maximum 1962 -- 27,373,000 1967 28,611,000 30,809,000 1972 31,583,000 34,762,000 1977 34,863,000 39,358,000 1982 38,473,000 54,682,000 We see from Table XXVI that the rate of population growth has sharply increased between 1947 and 1960. The only reason which we can derive from the prevailing source data is that death rates dropped due to enthusiastic policy in the public health sector. In Table XXVII the official estimates are based on the analysis of death and birth rates which could be trusted with the inclination to the adoption of some figures in the neighborhood of the maximum estimates since the birth control efforts will not be effective except after two of three generations when some levels of education and culture as well as standards of living are reached, The sudden upward shift between 1972 and 1982 is unexplainable. (30) Hawley indicated that, "A circumstance which seems to attend all occasions of migration is what may be called overpopulation. The term over-population is used advisedly, for it describes a relative condition; it is a matter of the ratio of number to the opportunities for life. A surplus number of people may come about through excessive

-151natural increase such as occurs in each genration in many old agrarian areas. Excess population, however, is often produced by an abrupt reduction in the food supply." It seems to me that over-population in itself acts only as a great potential towards migration. Over-population needs a start or a push to begin its work. This push should be initiated through education and culture change. In the case of Egypt, by definition, it has been over-urbanized since the beginning of this century but migration has not proceeded as well as over-population, when education, culture, and exploitation of new resources, which stimulate beside their manufacturing other service opportunities through a multiplier effect, then the potential over-population will start its motion. Over-population by definition is more vigorous in Egypt in "central service", county centers, and government capitals than that of the first group of cities. Our expectation then is a change from disequilibrium state to an equilibrium state through an outward push or migration. 3. Scarcity of Resources in the Nile Valley W. W. Rostow's stage theory of economic development, distin(31) guishes five "stages of nations"3): "The traditional society; the transitional society in which the foundations of change are being laid; the society in the crucial state of "take-off"; the maturing society, in which new methods and outlooks are spreading through the whole economy; and finally, the society which has reached the age of high mass consumption." The role of resources can be sighted in the section on the transitional society in which the pre-conditions of the takeoff are established.

-152In this stage resources are important because they "offer a quick yield of increased productivity to new techniques" and permit the application of the "hitherto unexploited backlog of innovations" which increase output and thus, provide means to service capital imports. Capital imports in turn help to speed the modernization of the economy. The importance of resources is mentioned once more in the discussion of the take-off stage which is marked by a "decisive shift" in the rate of investment from 5 percent to 10 percent of the national product. Three sources of increased capital formations are discussed: land reform which diverts income to the state and into commerce and industry; inflation which shifts resources from consumption to profits and thus, enhances capital formations and finally, foreign trade based on the exploitation of natural resources. "Developing economies have created major export industries from their natural resources, and the expanded yield of these has financed the import of capital equipment during the take-off " Adler(32) summarized the propositions of resources in economic stage developments as follows: a) the importance of natural resources diminishes as economic development progress; b) accessibility is conductive to economic growth; c) resources are important in pre-industrial stages because they permit the introduction of new techniques of production; and d) resources form the material basis for expanding exports,

-153Then he added, e) the presence of resources stimulates the development of new techniques for their exploitation, f) resources attract foreign capital, particularly foreign direct investment, and g) the more abundant the supply of natural resources, the less the need for other factors of production to assure growth. Concluding from the above discussion, that resources have to play a major role in our stage of economic development. Except in some parts of Upper Egypt, the Nile Valley is empty of mineral resources with the exception of limestone and aggregate quarries. Limited agriculture land with excess of labor force and presence of respectable level of theoretical classical technology are the primary factors of production in the valley. The increase of our national output, by ultimate exploitation of the valley's potentials through technological advancement,does not seem then to match with the increase of demand of population growing with extremely high rates of human increase and culture change. This will increase tremendously the pressures for outward movement of population. 4. Cost and Speed of Modernization In order that regional centers could be modernized, new functional activities should be imported to the region which increases job opportunities causing a chain of economic pulses in the community.

-154Initial growth of industry calls for many subsidiary branches catering to its needs. Thus, an accumulative process operates. The growth of industry leads to the development of subsidiary and complimentary industries and services which in turn leads to more concentration of industrial enterprises which were encouraged by these available handy services. In my opinion this phenomena cannot be held true in each locality. It will be more successful in regions of low or moderate population concentrations, while it will be less successful in highly concentrated urban areas especially those poor and illiterate localities. In Egypt all the "type'D' Centers," as well as most of the county centers, can be categorized in the second class where masses of rural population live. The structure of these centers is completely unsuitable for new factories to be established, except for some favorable locations on the main railroad line. Noneconomies of these centers are: a) Isolation of these centers which are not usually connnected by highways, so far any industry to be established should pay for the construction of new highways. b) Cost of importation of materials, power energy, and labor from outside the center due to the lack of resources and skilled laborers in these centers. c) A large capital should be invested in housing for imported laborers since usually the people of the centers cannot afford the housing business due to shortage of capital. d) Since these centers are numerous their hinterlands are relatively small, and since the input of industires which could be

-155established there are agriculture output, then we expect that these industries will be small in their scale, consequently, they lose the advantage of large scale production. e, Land available for agriculture will decline, because all establishments have to cut large cultivated areas for construction of factories, storage areas, and housing for labor. Also, due to modernization all these centers should be connected with a suitable network of highways which will cut more cultivated areas. If these centers are to be left to grow indefinitely while efforts for modernization are taking place, a large area should be cut off for new housing since the increase is traditionally and financially moved in a horizontal direction and rarely moves in a vertical direction. rom the above we see that if industrialization should take place in these centers, modernization will take place outside them, maybe two or three miles out. Modernized communities will start with a small imported group and slowly some of the old communities' citizens will move and build around the new areas. The volume of this new shift will be proportional to the size of industry and its typeo The process of this shift, as it is experienced in Egypt, is too slows The slowness and the limitations of modernization process will not soive the over-population problems as it was defined before. Over-population then will increase the pressure for outward movement. Mostly the new generations,who have the opportunities of education and culture change,will be eligible for this migration leaving the older generations to diminish gradually.

-156Summing up, under the assumption of a national goal of working for the welfare of our population to reach a standard of living comparable with western standards, and under the ideal conditions of planning of the distribution of population in proportion to opportunities in each area; then assuming rural density were property designed to meet some specified standards the next step is to delimit the "rural service centers" which will provide their hinterlands with the minor services like primary education and training, grocery, medical, and social care, security, and cooperative center which provides people with machines, fertilizers, loans, and agriculture information, also these cooperative centers provide hand craft industries like carpet industry and others in the same time their functions are extended to collective and cooperative trade of their outputs. Following this path of community design to meet the required standards of living, we can build up the schema of higher order centers which provides higher order services and functions. This ideal design, in fact, stems from the initiative to achieve certain goals. This process of design will create a massive surplus of population which has to move outwards. Even if in reality, we cannot achive our goals, our obligation towards our society is in itself an encouraged must for migration to potential areas. To reinforce the above statements, Dr. A. El-Baki Ibrahim * states that 18 millions of rural population were living on about 6 million "Faddans,"** The Ministry of Land Reclamation, claimed that Dr. Abd El-Baki Ibrahim, Assistance Professor of Planning, Collge of Engineering Ein Shams University. "Takhtite and Tazine El-Karia ElArabia," Organization and Planning the Arab Village, 8th Arab Engineering Convention. One Faddan N 4400 msqo

-157three faddans could be taken as an economic unit for agriculture land, which can accomodate a family of six persons using local agriculture tools. This economic unit can make a good living standard for this family, i.e., 6 million faddans absorb 12 million persons. Dr. Ibrahim then concluded that at least 30% of the rural population living only on agriculture are idleo The old European estimates were on person for one economic unit which is one crop faddan. Since the prevailing crop area is about 10 to 11 million, then this area can accomodate 10 to 11 million persons by that standard which naturally is excepted to be the standard 25 years from now. The new High Dam of Aswan will increase that area to maybe 14 million crop faddans, ioe,, 14 million persons to be actually living on agriculture. By an optimistic population estimate of 35 million persons in 1985, we can see that 21 million persons have to live on some other activity rather than agriculture. Most of those activities will not be available in semi-urban areas which are now overpopulated and over-urbanized. This leads us to conclude that a massive surplus of the population of the Nile's Valley have to move outwards, 5. Pulling Forces for Outward Movement Migration involves, however, a destination as well as a starting point. Over-population is the stimulus; it describes the conditions in the home area which made migration advisable. For the stimulus to become effective there must be a destination, a place or area in which circumstances are favorable to the absorption of additional settlers. The cause of migration, in other words, appears to be twofold.

-158It consists in an excess of numbers in the area of origin and under population in the area of destination. The operation of "push"and "pull" influences is very nicely illustrated by the ebb and flow of European migration to the United States. Harry Jerome observed close correlation between minimum egression and the business cycle as measured by pig iron production. He found that changes in the flow of overseas migration lagged approximately six months behind business cycle alternation. In our case in Egypt the pulling forces for outward movement could be summarized as follows: The exploitation of new natural resources (minerals and land for cultivation), power sources, as well as the "man-made" resources as monumentso a. In the agriculture sector. Research has proved the existence of subterranean waters in an area stretching several million acres around the Western Desert in the sector extending parallel to the Nile course from Aswan to the Quattara Depression. The area covers the oasis of Kharga, Dakhla, Beharia, Siwa, and Frafra; it has been given the name of the New Valley. The Project envisages the cultivation of 35 million acres, increasing total cultivated area by about fifty percent. A railway line and a highway have been constructed joining the New Valley with the Nile Valley. Also an airport has been built in Kharga, the Valley's capital. Agriculture and livestock output will also create a chain of industries which will attract more and more population. Urban centers will be established in location of relative advantage connecting the main old urban centers,

-159The second main project is the supply of Sinai by water for the cultivation of a sizable area which will absorb some agriculture migration as well as strengthen the existing modern industrial centers there. Other agrarian projects have begun in the area of northeast and west to the Delta and Upper Egypt strengthening modern urban centers close to them. b. In the mineral resource sector tremendous effort has been devoted for the discovery of the richness of our soil. The main areas where minerals have been discovered and will be exploited are: Upper Egypt around Aswan (iron and steel industry have been established there), the New Valley, area parallel to the Red Sea, and Sinai. All of these areas have the potentiality of growing too fast except for the southern area parallel to the Red Sea which needs accessibility to agriculture and service areas. c. Fishing and its industry. Fish and other sea products will constitute one of the country's most important and richest sources of natural wealth. The country has coastal lines about 1,500 miles in length. There are also many lakes in various parts of the country. With the objective of increasing the country's wealth in fish and other sea products, the authorities decided to introduce various kinds of fish from abroad to be acclimatized in Egyptian waters. Three government fish rearing forms have been established at Delta Barrage (north of Cairo) Alexandria and in the Saron District, near Manzala Lake. Also, Naser's Lake, created by the construction of the High Dam will be a rich source of fish.

-16od. Power resources. Aswan will be the main source of hydroelectric power in Egypt. The Aswan Dam provides the country now with two million K.WHo per year (two thirds of this power has to be consumed in the industry of fertilizers in the area). The High Dam promises another ten milliono Long distance transport of electric power is expensive, so most of this power should be consumed within the area, (Upper Egypt, New Valley and Red Sea), consequently, it will attract many industries to be established, which will initiate the pull for new manufacturers and other activities. Quattara Depression promises half the power of the High Dam. Petroleum oil is the second source of energy. Now it constitutes 93% of the motive power utilized in the country. The country's consumption of petroleum products was about 100,000 tons a year in 1910, but it has been gradually increased until it reached 3,200,000 tons in 1959. The existing oil wells are located in Sinai and on the Red Sea shore. The most promising areas which may exploit large oil industry are the Suez Gulf and the Western Desert near Libia. 6. Attractive Powers of the Existing Modernized Metropolis It has been pointed out in viewing industrialization of Cairo and Alexandria, as well as the modernization of other cities like: Port Said, Ismailia, and Suez, that external economies have worked out for the attractivness of industry and other establishments to these cities. Domination of market demand, elasticity of skilled labor supply, availability of research and technical advisory institutions, opportunities of subsidiary establishments, economies of large scale production,

-l61availability of financial institutions, accessibility for international exchange, etc., have also been mentioned. In the economic stages of "take-off" and "maturing" societies, stated before by Rostow, much attention should be devoted to imported capital (other than loans) through expansion of foreign exchange or trade. I believe that Egypt is in a situation where she can close the technological gap in many areas between it and the most advanced nations in the respective fields. The Suez Canal administration is the best example. A second example is the textile industry. Now we are exporting our textiles to the advanced countries which were importing textiles to us. Our exports increased from 1,068,006 tons in 1955 to 3,744,831 tons in 1957. I believe also, that the cost of importation of the latest technology is much lower in some fields than the differential labor cost between Egypt and the most advanced nations. The geographical location of Egypt between the matured arnd the pre-industrial underdeveloped countries gives here excellent locational advantages with respect to market and resource areas. So, if we recall the third assumption of out international relations, then we can play a respectable role in the international trade. The city of Dimiatta gives an excellent example, although it is on a small scale. Timber is very expensive in Egypt. Most, if not all, of our timber consumption is imported from Europe. Dimiatta specializing in furniture industry and located on the sea, exports a sizable amount of its output to the international market of the furniture industry.

-1627. The City of the Future Professor R. L. Meier, when outlining "The City of the Future" pointed out some forces which will determine the location of the city of the future, as follows: a. The physiography of the land rules out perhaps 90% of the land area as suitable for centers because construction and movement on steep slopes and uneven surfaces are abnormally expensive. As a result, the northern part of Egypt is the best to fulfill this requirement. b. The present location of centers and passenger movements will also be a factor in the location of the future centers,although some of the existing centers can die and disappear from the scene. Thus, as we mentioned before the areas which have a hard strata to grow up on is the area on the Mediterranean and Suez zone and that of Aswan. c. Climate has recently been an important attraction for the more educated people. They prefer a mild but variable climate. Population movements in all parts of the world with medium to high income show migration to places with a climate like that of California, Florida, Eastern Australia, the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, etc. d. Accessibility to the main commercial routes provides a basis for more than average growth. Thus, population on the Atlantic side, Latin America, on the whole African Coast, the Mediterranean and places in South Asia may be expected to grow following Djakarta in recent times, e. The limitation upon the expenditure of energy requires that a low population density exist in areas that require much seasonal

-163heating of living areas or air conditioning. Again the Mediterranean area of Egypt as well as the Canal Zone are the best places to fulfill that requirement. As we see, all the above mentioned factors which Professor Meier pointed out, have emphasized my findings about the outward movements of the Egyptian population in the future. H. Forces Working as a Tie to the Nile Valley This set of forces is working in a counter balancing way against the previous two sets of forces, The new set of forces is that which pulls population to their home land resembling the gravity and friction forces. These forces are as follows: 1. Egyptian rural communities are independent and immobile communities. They are producing their own sustenance directly from local resources. They are bound to the land by a routine of long-run processes, such as the maturation of plants and the breeding cycles of food and animals. The attachment to places which arises in the isolation of selfsufficient existence is in itself a powerful deterrent to movement and resettlement elsewhere. Many illiterate peoplesregard (33) themselves belonging to their lands, Not only is there a fixity as to place, but the very cohesiveness of the community enables it to withstand many migration stimuli. The independences among its individuals are overlaid by sentiments of rights and duties and cemented by common loyalities. It is then logical to say that this group cohesion should be a mass movement if it is to occur at all.

-1642. The cost of movement and resettlement is an essential force working against migration. The burden of this cost is on the shoulders of the government when it takes the responsibilities of land reclamation, transportation of migrants, and providing housing and other facilities for them. Even when applying the latest techniques for cooperative self-made housing and land reclamation, the capital required will be too high for the Egyptian budget to provide in a short period. 3. The benefits from the construction of the High Dam will increase the existing capacity of the Nile Valley which means an additional labor demand in agriculture. 4, Decentralization of governmental, political, industrial and all other service activities. 5. Land reform laws which redistributed the land of the Valley among peasants made them closely tied to the land. Also, it increased the total purchasing power, which helped in the mechanics of the business cycle and in turn, increased in service activities. 6. The establishment of institutes of technology and, sometimes, universities in the governments will provide laboratories and technical advisory which will attract new establishments. I. Conclusions Summing up this chapter, we have to determine the following four points: 1. The future growth of Egypt's population. 2. Future growth of urbanization in Egypt.

-1653. Potential areas of urban growth in Egypt. 4. Population growth of Cairo. 1. The Future Growth of Egypt's Population This part has been discussed thoroughly in the first chapter, and was related to the official estimates derived from a large study of the population trends in the U.A.R. in 1962. When I wrote the first section I was very pessimistic about something being done to lower the fertility and birth rates, and my choice of the first mentioned estimates was in the neighborhood of the maximum estimate. Now the picture has changed a little bit since new devices have been adopted and successful research has been conducted in the University of Michigan on birth control. We should not be too optimistic about the results of these new devices, if adopted by the Egyptian population,because it would take sometime to reach fruitful results. But at the same time,we should not be as pessimistic as before. We must assume that the current rates of population growth in 1960 will continue as they are until 1970. It is during this period that the government must consider the new birth control devices and propagate them and their advantages to the Egyptian population. Since the expectation is that these new devices will be adopted more faster among urban communities, the drop will be slight between 1970 and 1975. After 1975 we assume that these devices will be utilized by all population and as a result new growth rates will decline more and more, Estimate IV is the best estimate to coincide with these assumptions and will be adopted through the following work,

-1662. Future Growth of Urbanization in Egypt We have seen from the historical presentation that technological advances have stimulated the existence and continuation of cities. There is a correlation between literacy and economic development and another correlation between degree of development and urbanization. If one of these social changes occur faster than the others, the equilibrium point will move faster to reach a point where it can regain a steady speed. Egypt up until the 1950's was a state of dynamic non-equilibrium which created the so-called over-urbanization. It was in a state where urbanization was moving faster than culture and economic changes. By the middle 50's and 60's,culture and economic developments were going also too fast and as a result, urbanization is now regaining higher accelerations How far this race will continue is a matter of time when reshuffling of the community will be completed after a stable and steady stage of culture and economic change is reached. As we mentioned before, if the community has been properly designed, by 1985 only about 14 million persons will be engaged in agriculture in the Nile Valley, if the New Valley and Sinai will consume, by that time, another 4 million persons, then total rural population should be not more than 18 million out of the acceptable estimate of 43.6 million by 1985, The responsibility is in the hands of our regional and national planners, then trials to design our rural communities to be modernized, will result in a complete failure if they leta surplus of rural population accumulate. If things go as they are, no matter how fast we modernize, the speed of deterioration will be much faster with the presence of

-167accumulated surpluses. The best way to serve our complicated rural communities is to limit their absolute population which will create a better opportunity for higher incomes. The first step for our community design is to create great urban centers where the real roots of urbanism could be found; make this urban area attractive to the surplus of rural and semi-urban communities, supply the rural areas with water, energy power, technological institutions as well as resonable means of transport and then we can make our plans sound and realistic. Unfortunately, I cannot be too optimistic and dream of a rural community that will be stagnant during the period 1960 to 1985 of 18 million inhabitants. In Figure 31,if we join the two points of urban population of 1947 and 1960 by a straight line, then continue this line to estimate the urban population in 1985, assuming this straight line relationship will prevail, we will come to an urban population of 23 million and a rural population of 20.6 million. Again this result seems to be too optimistic. In the case of the adoption of the new birth control devices, we can expect that by 1985 the urban population growth will taper down reaching 20 million inhabitants by 1985 while rural population will be 23.6 million. This seems to be a reasonable estimate that could be adopted. 3. Potential Areas of Urban Growth in Egypt It has been illustrated before that there are three types of forces affecting the mechanism of urbanization in Egypt. Internal pressures trying to push the dense population of the Nile Valley and

-16870 60 Maximum 50 / / Estimate IV 40' 40 -;,. Minimum 30 - ^ 20 - Total population /./Urban population 10 / 0O 9X 8 z 0 7 - 6' 0 a 5-. 4 3 2 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 YEARS Figure 31. Total and Urban Population Growth in Egypt.

-169external forces of modern urban areas and resource potential areas working to attract and pull those people outwards. The third type of force are friction forces preventing the outward movement, The outward movement should not only reach the Egyptian borders but also exceed them. Immigrating to the Arab and African countries should be encouraged. The high demand for teachers, administrators, industrial as well as agriculture workers, professionals and religous, etc., is increasing rapidly in the newly developing countries in these areas, while an increasing surplus of these people is occurring in Egypt. The immigrants themselves will be a potential for attracting other phases. There is strong evidence that some modern cities are growing very fast because they have the roots of urbanism and modernization. These cities are those located on the Mediterranean and in the Suez Canal Zones as well as Cairo, Aswan, and maybe later on El-Kharga, the capital of the new Valley. The second group of cities which now have some root of urbanism are the governorate capitals and the industrial centers, mentioned before as "Banders", as well as some cities in Sinai and the Red Sea, if a reasonable means of transportation is provided to them. In an attempt to calculate the population in the potential urban centers in the future, Table IV, Appendix B has been constructed. From that table we notice that the potential urban areas suitable for the creation of great metropolis constitute about 65% of the total urban population in 1960. Then our first approximation of the future population in 1985 should be 65% of 20 million or 13 milliion. Since we have

-170found that an outward shift of population will occur then this figure should be taken as a minimum estimate. On the other hand, the urban population in the Nile Valley, after substituting Cairo MP.A.,, and Aswan, has increased from 1947 to 1960 by 40o, If we allow the same rates to occur for the other 25 years, then their population will increase from 3.41 million to about 6o5 million (compound rates). This estimate should be the maximum limit for the population of those areas. If this limit is reached then it will be a disaster, because that means that those cities will compound themselves in 25 years. I repeatedly emphasized that these cities may be defined as urban areas but in many ways completely lack the roots of urbanism. If the population of these cities remains as it is now, then it will be a miracle if we get them all to be truly urbanized and modernized within 25 years. Other potential areas for urban growth are those expected areas on the border governorates. The best of these is Sinai,especially the part parallel to the Mediterranean. Total population of these governorates is only 212,606 and is considered to be urban. It is very hard to make more than rough estimates for future growth of these areas. Sinai is under consideration by our government, There are some projects designed to irrigate some hundred thousands of "faddans" there. There are some mineral resources and it is a military zone where service activities could be easily found. Also, its climate could be

-171considered as wonderful. Very easily we can allocate from 250 to 500 thousand by 1985 in the urban centers in Sinai (1960 population = 50,000). Matrouh has a population of 103,453 people, a good many of them are engaged in agriculture. Since Matrouh is also parallel to the Mediterranean, it can also create urban centers which can live on Summer Tourism. Without the discovery of oil, true urban population can hardly reach 100,000 or more. The New Valley may have about 3 million crop faddans to be cultivated, which we can assume to absorb 3 million rural population which may create about 500 thousand of urban centers to serve them. The Red Sea has a population of only 25,452. The cities of this area are now connected with Suez by newly constructed highways. The population may increase to about 150,000 if Aswan is to be connected with the Red Sea. Aswan is a powerful potential of urban growth for many reasons as mentioned before. Its urban growth may reach to about 250 thousand by 1985 since its population was only about 50 thousand in 1960. The total of these urban areas then could be assured to be something between 1 to 1.5 million persons while the remainder of the 20 million estimated urban population is only 500 thousand (20 - (13.6.5) =.5). 4. Future Population of Cairo We concluded in the population study of Cairo in the first chapter that, "although it will continue as the most important city in Egypt, its relative importance is declining and we must expect the rise

-172of other important centers challenging Cairo." Figure 32 shows that Cairo population was about 8.2%, 11.0o and 18.0% of the total population of Egypt. It is expected that this share will be around 15% by 1985 which raises the population of the City of Cairo up to about 6.6 million. On the urban population share, if we omit the percentage of 1947 because it is too high,then the Cairo share of urban population may rise to about 37% giving a population of 7.4 million (neglecting also the increase of suburbs in Cairo). In Figure 33 if we plot the population of Cairo on a semi log. paper then we get about 6.6 million for the city of Cairo (lower curve), and 11.5 million for the whole M.P.A. of Cairo (upper curve). I feel that both could not be realistic and the intermediate curve will be adopted which gives us a total population of about 7.5 million by 1985 according to the Table XXVIII, bearing in mind, that if we calculate Cairo's population only on the basis of natural growth of 2.4%/year then we reach a figure of about 6.0 million by 1985. TABLE XXVIII POPULATION PROJECTION (1960-1985) Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Projected Pop. for Cairo M.A. 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.4 7.1 7.6 Figure 34 also indicates the proposed distribution of urban areas up until 1985.

-17315. o% of total population 10.40 4 - z F_ 32. Crs"0 %o of urban population 0 -** — r O',O z 2 w w a. 5 -,- 30 0. -30 30 40 50 60 70 80 YEAR Figure 32. Cairo's Share of the Total and Urban Population.

174,' o~, a Io -~ d / CNe a-e ~10 - 10,N, -- C O ~~0.1~~/'. 190 40 50 60 70 80 1990 F 33 P Fi ure 33. P 00ected 00trib64ion oe Urban Spini

-175MEDITERRANEAN SEA Aexandria 0 __ _ /, Matrouh' j//yy 0eo.60 ^ 2.50 0 0 T. 6 SINAIt \ f Ret of Urban., 0 Areas = 5.50 (Upper and Lower PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN o2 Aswan POPULATION IN 1985 Figures in milhons Figure 34. Projected Distribution of Urban Population in 1985.

CHAPTER III POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND SOCIAL CHANGE PROJECTION -176

A. General Approach In previous chapters our job was to build up sufficient background about the area under study to pin point the transportation problem as well as to establish a base for the projection of its population. In this chapter our task will be rather difficult and more delicate since we are going to draw the picture of the future of that area taking into consideration the past and existing situation and history. Since that picture will dictate a specific trend of traffic flow for which transport facilities will be designed, then we have to be very cautious in drawing it. Traffic flow or movement is nothing but a resultant of a complex of all demographic, economic and social interactions. Any change in one of the forces acting in that complex will undoubtedly change that resultant through the same type of interaction, this is why our job here is rather delicate. Although city planning and urban transportation planning are two complementary tasks, each is completing and influencing the other; but there is no doubt that city planning is a prerequisite for transportation planning. On the other hand, transportation may dictate some changes in city planning. That means that final plans for an area should not be adopted except after super-imposing the two plans to fit each other after making proper changes in each plan. Unfortunately, the Master Plan of Cairo, which was set up in 1957, is now obsolete. Even though it is not complete and is lacking in details which we need to feed into our projection and planning. This is why our task here is rather difficult. -177

-178City planners are usually optimistic when they adopt the ideal way of thinking for an ideal plan for the city under study. These planners base their projects on: What should be done without any restraints on the budget or the political forces. If planners are the policy makers or if they have great influence on the policy makers, then this ideal plan could be reasonable because these planners could force all other factors together to bring their plans to reality and success. Unfortunately, reality is usually far behind wishful thinking. In our case, I prefer to base my projection on what is most likely to happen rather than what should be done. Otherwise, I will find myself dealing with a city other than Cairo. Our country is now witnessing an economic development passing in a stage which now it is premature to predict when and how the housing problem will be solved; but it is becoming more and more severe, which may result, in the case of Cairo, in checking its population or its capabilities in accommodating more emigrants to reach a total population as I predicted in the previous chapter. Since the housing problem is a national one and not a local one, then the social and economic change will create the same forces mentioned previously, which will result in the same population figures I reached before. It may be changed slightly, but without a markable deviation. B. Projected Population Distribution There are many scientific methods and theories of population redistribution(33-42) but only a few could be applied in each specific

-179case. Since none could be applied to our problem,especially with a lack of refined data, then I will release myself from the burden of outlining them but as a matter of reference I am going to mention some of them in the bibliography of this chapter. For Cairo I have a different approach. I repeatedly emphasized the housing supply as the most decisive factor which will determine the realistic distribution of the inhabitants of the city. Since insufficient funds are being allocated for housing and since the private sector in our economy is now reluctant to participate in this activity, it is logical to assume that the supply of new housing will fall far behind demand. In the first five year plan (1960-64), construction of 20,000 housing units per year(43) in the urban areas (of which Cairo constitutes about 32%) was proposed. Thus about 7,000 housing units per year was Cairo's share, since it is better off than most of the rest of the urban areas. However, there is no evidence that this program of housing has been accomplished, due to shortages of funds as well as shortages in building materials. An increase of prices, and non-participation of the private sector, even though it is inadequate, also held back construction. Consequently, I do not expect more than an average of 10,000 housing units to be built each year during the period of 1960-75. Assuming 3 rooms/unit and an average capacity of 2.5 persons/room (the 1960 figure), by 1975 the number of inhabitants who would occupy the newly constructed buildings is about 1,125,000. Municipal engineers of Cairo once declared that at least one third of its houses could collapse at any time. Assuming an optimistic

-l8ofigure of 4,000 units to be evacuated for renewal each year, then for the same period 450,000 persons would move from old buildings to newly constructed ones, leaving room for only 650,000 new inhabitants to live in these buildings. Since we have forecast that Cairo's population should reach 6.4 million by 1975; therefore, 5.75 million people (6.4 less 0.65) should live in the same number of housing units which were existing in 1960. This can only be done by increasing the average persons per room from 2.3 to about 3.5 by 1975. As an average,this figure seems to be too high but it may prove to be necessary. This crowding will create very severe social, economic, health and political problems which I expect will be experienced before 1970. From 1970 to 1975 adjustments in our plans will take place, and from 1975 to 1985 I hope that corrective measures planned in the previous period (1970-75) will be taken and new large scale projects for renewal and extensions will be carried on. If this expectation is realized, Helwan D5, El-Maadi Dl, Kism Giza(l)D22 on the route to the Pyramids of Giza, Masr ElGedida D20 and El-Mataria Dg, as well as a strip of one or two blocks along the two banks of the River Nile, should logically be the locales where these projects would be located. For population distribution projection, a cumulative distribution curve for the districts and subdistricts of the area has been set up according to 1960 Census, with the "x" axis representing the number of persons per room, and the "y" axis representing the cumulative percent of the whole population having an average number of persons per room less or equal to the average on the "x" axis. From this curve we

-181can set up two other curves representing the 1975 and 1985 distribution by fixing three points for each curve, then connecting them with a smooth curve having the same characteristics of the original one or the characteristics of another subdivision which I feel that the original one will follow. These three points could be established by: Calculating the average number of persons per room for the two projection years as mentioned previously, the max point is an assumed point representing a social limit, and the third point is a calculated point representing the existing population having an average of one person per room plus the expected additions of housing units for the high income level group. This method is illustrated as an example for my work in Figure 35. For each district, knowing its average persons per room for 1960,we can get its new average persons/room for the projection year. Multiplying this obtained figure by the number of rooms available we reach the projected population which in turn is subject to some modification according to density, site, location, degree of literacy, type of economic activity, income level and finally the other subarea which the original subarea expected to follow. The new adjusted population is called the anticipated population. Following the same path, then the anticipated population for each subdistrict has been calculated and illustrated in Appendix C. C. Population Density From the anticipated population distribution we can easily calculate the new population density which has been illustrated in Figures 36 and 37.

-182100 (O 90._ 0 80 - 1960~ 1975 0. 1985 uc 70Irl 60 CD z Z 50- 0.J 0. o 40 aG, 0 0 30-.J 20 0 0 I00 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 NUMBER OF PERSONS/ROOM, (P/R) Figure 35. Existing and Projected Cumulative Curves for Population Living in Specific Levels of Persons/Room.

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-185D. Income Distribution It is a difficult task to draw the picture of income distribution for an area without some direct sampling research, a matter which is missing in our case. That does not mean that we have to stand idle waiting for such research to be done, but it is our job to use and gather all available information to reach sound conclusion. As I lived in the city for almost twenty years and since I am fully acquainted with some of its subdistricts, then as a first effort, all subdistricts which I know well, have been ranked, then assigned to one of the following classes: Upper Class - U.C., Upper Middle Class - U.M.C., Middle ClassM.C., Lower Middle Class - L.M.C., and Lower Class - L. C. For each subdistrict in each group I indicated its degree of literacy as percent of literate people to total population of more than six years old. Also indicating the percent of economically active members to total population older than 15 years. For either measures I could not find any correlation between them and income levels of these subdistricts. The best results were obtained after a second trial by measuring the percent of professionals and administrators (engineers, doctors, etc.) among the economically active members and actually participating in each subdistrict. I found that: Upper Class districts have more than 30% of their active members as professionals and administrators, Upper Middle Class have between 20% to 30%, Middle Class between 10% to 20%, Lower Middle Class have between 5% to 10% and finally Lower Class districts are those having less than 5%.

-186Income level distribution is tabulated in Appendix C and represented in Figure 5. Studying the expected number of persons per room, expected density, the present income level, site and location of each subdistrict, the expected income level distribution for each respective projection year is concluded and presented in Appendix C and Figures 38 and 39. For the distribution of those who are participating in both clerical and commercial activities, I found by grouping these subdistricts according to their percentages engaged in both activities and representing that on a working map for each, I found that location with respect to main roads, government buildings and commercial areas as well as income level are the major factors affecting the level of participation in respective activities. Projection of these activities are only shown in Appendix C. Accordingly, each subdistrict can be identified as follows: I - Professionals and Administrators Uper Class IA -> 35%0 with an average of 45.2% pper ass IB 30 - 35 with an average of 3300% Upper Middle IIA: 25% - 300 with an average of 26.7% Class IIB: 20% - 25% with an average of 22.7% Middle Class IIIA: 15% - 20% with an average of 17.2% IIIB: 10% - 15% with an average of 12.5% Lower Middle Class IV: 5% - 10% with an average of 7.4% Lower Class V: < 5% with an average of 2.8%

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-189II - Clerks 7: > 30% with an average of 6: 25 - 30% with an average of 5: 20 - 25% with an average of 21.2% 4: 15 - 20% with an average of 17.3% 3: 10 - 15% with an average of 12.5% 2: 5 - 10o with an average of 7.4% 1: < 5% with an average of 3.4% III - Commerce 7: > 30% with an average of 30.1% 6: 25 - 30% with an average of 27.4% 5: 20 - 25% with an average of 21.1% 4 15 - 20% with an average of 16.3% 3: 10 - 15% with an average of 10.8% 2: 5 - 10 with an average of 7.9% 1 ~ < 5% with an average of 4.5%

CHAPTER IV TRAFFIC PROJECTION -190

A. Introduction At last we have reached the heart of this research. Under ideal circumstances, this dissertation should have been started from this chapter and this would have saved 11/12 of the time spent on the whole effort. The work done in the previous chapters should have been done by many specialized complementary departments which have more time, personnel and facilities than a single person. Very likely they would have obtained more accurate results than I, if they had the patience and the proper research methodology. I confess that my results, as obtained in the previous chapters, could be more refined, perhaps not from the methodology point of view, but from the point of view of accuracy. The following examples demonstrate where more accuracy could be achieved: 1. All map work and accurate political boundaries could be improved since there were some problems raised in reaching that as will be seen on the next page. 2. The center of gravity of the subdistricts could be obtained by slow but more accurate methods than I have. 3. The projected cumulative distribution curves could also been drawn more accurately, since more points could be calculated. 4. The areas and densities of all subdivisions could be more precise since their values were not given. I have chosen a rough and long path seeking analysis capable of achieving better results, but I intended to do so primarily to establish a comprehensive methodology which I hope -191

-192may be followed by the planners for Cairo. For example, I devoted a complete chapter to an analysis which enables the investigator to reach an approximate figure for the population in Cairo. The study of urbanization phenomena and how they work in Egypt tells us how much they will affect the size of the city. Even though I chose this method, I must report that our city and regional planners who made their studies and plans for the renewal of our rural communities, only concentrated their efforts to reach a design of our villages and only studied their relations with the second higher rank communities "the Markaz", see page 140 They were concerned with the layout of villages of different sizes in relation to the region they are located in without studying the potential economic base of each group of villages having the same size, and how much people can live efficiently on that basis and how much people have to go elsewhere in an area which has an economic potential to accommodate them. In other words, they did not come to a conclusion for a recommended policy to be followed by the government concerning village renewal and its affect and connection to urban renewal or extensions. Bo Available Information Although the data required for traffic projection depends on the methodology of calculation, it is specifically true that the method adopted is wholly dependent on the available information. The available and the calculated information up to this stage is:

-1931. Population and density distribution in Cairo metropolitan area as it is divided into 244 subdistricts* for 1960 and those projected for 1975 and 1985. 2. The coordinates of the center of gravity for the area of each subdivision. 3. Numbers of families and the average of their size for each division in 1960. 4. Percent of economically active members and actually participating for each subdivision for 1960 and the projection years. Population, among other things, has been used as the main independent parameter in all equations used to compute traffic expectation. Of course, this parameter should be modified to give better results since the demand of the people from this service varies according to many factors among which age, degree of literacy, income level, and economic activity. The new trend, especially in the United States of America, is to modify this parameter to the number of familieso It is very clear that this new parameter is applicable in a rich society where almost every family owns a car, which is widely used as a travel media, while * Some trouble has appeared because accurate maps of Cairo metropolitan areas and its subdivisions are not available. My only source, in this respect, is a map sent officially after my request by the U.A.R. Census Department. From that map it is clear that some mistakes have been made by the persons responsible for its construction. The exact location or exact boundaries of some subdivisions of the following districts have been found to be wrong but I could not correct them: d24, d30, d40, d49, d68, d69, d78, d106, d107, d108, dl24, d192, d221, d226, d232, d238, d239.

-194public transport is of a negligible need. Usually, in this case, our measure of traffic flow is the number of cars passing a certain section in a certain direction during a specified time. Since all active members of each family or the entire family move as one unit in a car or in other words, since car ownership is a factor of the number of families rather than a factor of number of people, then traffic movement could be also related to the number of families rather than the number of people. It follows that, if each person who can drive a car in the U.S.Ao owns it, then the criterion of the family as a parameter should not be valued. Rejecting the population and the number of families as an independent parameter in the case of Cairo, I chose the number of economically active members and actually participating members as my parameter. Of course it is not the best choice since it neglects the housewives as well as university students who are actually participating in the traffic for different purposes. This difference could be tolerated due to the fact that not all of the economically active members are actually participants in traffic. 5. Fortunately, among the valuable data which is available, is a decent research on the family budget - "consumer behavior" - conducted by sample methods under the supervision of the U.AoRo Central Committee of Census in 1958-59, which have been published in April 1961.(44) The following table represents a level of spending on transportation (per capita spending/year in piasters - raw (2)) for various groups according to some social differences in urban areas.

-195From Table XXIX we can notice a definite correlation between level of transportation spending (or demand) and income or literacy level. Also, if we combine professionals and administrators in one group and call them professionals, clerks in another group, those engaged in commerce in a third group and finally all other activities in a fourth group, we can notice also a correlation between economic activity and transportation consumption behavior with an average spending of 625, 301, 142 and 102 for each group respectively. That is according to a ratio of 6.13: 2.96: 1.39: 1 respectively. Since we have identified each subdistrict by income groups, as related to its participation in economic activities to which we have a correlation between that activity and investment or transportation, then we can get a factor identifying the population of each subdivision as participants in public transportation. If: fi identifies those participants in professional activities in the i-th subdivision ki identifies those participants in clerical activities in the i-th subdivision mi identifies those participants in merchant activities in the i-th subdivision Oi identifies those participants in other activities in the i-th subdivision or 0i = 1 - (fi + ki + mi) ~ (1)

TABLE XXIX AVERAGE PER CAPITA YEARLY SPENDING ON TRANSPORTATION (IN PEASTERS) IN URBAN AREAS a - Income level of the head of the family - raw (1) in Egyp. Lbs./Yr.: (1) 25 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 400 600 800 1000 (Income level) (2) 2 3 57 80 113 114 168 210 354 600 757 1745 (per capita spending) b - Economic Activity of the head of the family: (1) Professionals Administrators Clerks Commerce Agriculture Transport Craftsmen Services (Economic activity) (2) 636 589 301 142 88 97 106 98 (per capita spending) c - Level of education of the head of the family: High School University University Reads Less than or equal 1st degree Higher than (1) Illiterate Reads Only and Writes High School level 1st degree [evel of education) (2) 74 87 159 229 456 821 2201 (per capita spending) d - Number of persons per family: (1) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10(Number of persons/family) (2) 262 375 259 234 202 153 149 117 216 170(per capita spending)

-197Bearing in mind that in the previous chapter we have identified each subdivision by three economic activities only, and now we are recalling the percentage of the last economic activity. Then fi may equal IA = 45.2% to V = 2.8% and ki equals kil = 3.4% to ki5 = 21.2% and mi may equal mil = 4.5% to mi7 = 30.1% as indicated in Chapter IV. Since the ratio between investment per year per each person in a family headed by an economically active member participating in one of the mentioned groups is 6.13: 2.96: 1.39: 1 respectively and since the ratio does not represent actual trip trend* then it should be adjusted. It is logical to assume that the first class passengers are all or a fraction of the professional people, then if the actual trip ratio is (f:C(k:.Cm:o(o then we will have the following constraints: (1) assuming (o = 1 therefore o<m = 1.38 and k = 2o96 (2) cX<f 6.13 and <f k > CDm O<o frP i x 30fi -3 (2) Pi(fi~<f + kidk + mic m + 0i ) 100 where Pi = number of economically active members in the i-th subdivision. From Equation (2) it has been found that: <f = 4.01 If Pi = fi f + ki<k + miCim + Oic<o (3) * Because we have two class fares for the same distance. First class revenue equal 30% of the total.

-198Let = 680,000,000 Pi i(4) where 680,000,000 is the total number of trips per year in 1960 for the metropolitan area of Cairoo Therefore 60 = 383 If Ki is the trip potential for the economically active population in the i-th subdivision; ioeo, the per capita number of trips per year for the economically active members. Therefore Ki = 60/i (5) Ki actually represents the number of trips per year per each economically active member in the i-th subdivision. At this stage, if the data on the place of each activity as well as its relative size had been available, then the study of the existing traffic flow would have been very simple, and in turn the traffic projection would be also simple and more accurate. But as I have mentioned in the first chapter, if we have to wait for all information to be available, then we have to wait forever. 6. The last group of available information is concerned with the city's transportation network, including its suburbs. We have the path of each transport system from its origin to its destination. That path can be identified easily by some chosen points at their intersections or at joint path points. These points have their coordinates calculated using the same grid for the center of gravity points of the subareas of the city. The best points to be chosen should be at the bus stops or the stops of other systems. If they do not have common stops or if the stops in one direction are not facing

-199those of the other direction, then inbetween points should be taken, but in any case the numbers and location of the chosen points should be in some way related to these stops. This condition could not be satisfied in our case. Other information is the volume of passengers per year for each line of each public transport system. The following are the symbols given to each line: BLS = the bus line number S YLS = the trolly bus number S TLS = the tramway number S MLS = the metro number S RL1 = Helwan railway line RL2 = El Mattaria railway line Therefore VBL2, for example, will designate the number of passengers per year using bus line number 2. Knowing that all public transportation systems work for 16 hours a day, then VBL2 designates the average number of passengers per working hour using bus line number 2, i.e., VBL2 = VBL2/365 x 16 (6) Also any point or stop on a transportation line is designated by J, where J varies from 1 to N. Then TL2 20 designates the point (or stop) number 20, through which the tramway line number 2 passes. We know from Chapter I that the peak hourly volume is 30% higher than the average, and lasts for three hours, the average hourly volume continues for seven hours and the low traffic volume is 30% less than the average and lasts for six hours.

-200The third group of available information,or that which could be approximately calculated, is the average daily round trip made by all units working on each line and is designated by i. If = average available capacity provided by a line (S) per cne working hour. Therefore LS 16 - (7) i/BLs x 60 B LBLS6 (8) BLS 16 L x 70 sYL (9) YLS 16 TLS x50 (10) TLs 16 MLs x 125 =.S.. (11) TMLS 16 x 750 1-, Li (12) RL1 16.4// ~R x 530 L2 16 (13) where 60, 70, 50, 125, 750 and 530 are the average calculated actual capacity for each of the units of the respective transportation systems. It should be noted here, that the capacity of each unit in any of the public transport systems is not the actual number of seats plus the allowable number of standing persons, but it is the actual number of people who are actually accommodated in each unit, i.e., the actual capacity exceeds the theoretical capacity at least during the peak hours. In any case, the actual capacity should not be less than the theoretical capacity. It follows that we can calculate the average provided capacity at any point

-201on the network by simply adding the average actual capacities of all lines of all systems passing that point. The average provided capacity at any point J on the network per hour is designated by YJ. The last piece of information is the number of tickets sold in each railway station on the suburban lines Helwan and El-Mattaria. The distribution of passengers ascending and descending all other lines along their path is not available, otherwise it would have been of excellent value. C. The Solution for the Traffic Projection It remains now, to find some available technology which could be directly applied to our case for the projection of traffic in the future years, or which could be partially used or modified to be acceptable in application. Our aim is to estimate the traffic volume which will be carried by each line on the transportation network. Also, it will be better if our solution can lead to estimate the number of passengers leaving, passing through, or catching each line at any point. That is, if for example, we have the actual bus stops of a bus line BLS, then what will be the actual number of passengers using that line at each of these stops? If a scientific solution then could be reached and traffic projection could be achieved with a reasonable degree of confidence, then this solution or technique could be of a valuable potential for the design of public transport passenger movement in Cairo and probably in the Egyptian region. Available data summarized and reduced to its simple usable form in Section B of this chapter, draws one's thinking towards an approach

-202by which a theoretical evaluation of the volume of traffic in 1960 could be accomplished for each transport line. Modification of this approach should be carried on until a correlation between the theoretical and actual volumes could be found, then we can conclude that we are on the right track. The most promising technique which could be partially applied and modified is the "Gravity, Potential, and Spatial Interaction Models." (4557 Suppose there is a metropolitan area with population P, as shown in Figure 40. If internal trips per year taken by the inhabitants of this area is T then A = T/P is the per capita number of trips per year. Figure 40. Hypothetical Interaction between Subareas in a Metropolitan Area.

-203Suppose the area is divided into n number of small divisions with known population of Pi where i ranges from 1 to n. Assume also, as a hypothetical case, that the movement is free of cost and time restraints. Assume also that all populations have social homogenity so as to assume an even utility function for transportation demand among them. Let us assume, further, that all activities are evenly distributed that there is no one subdivision that has more attractive powers than any other subarea, or in other words, there is no land use effect. Now we expect that the percent of trips for a representative individual in subarea i to terminate in subarea j equals Pj/P. It follows that this absolute number of trips per year to subarea j = A j. P Then for the entire population of subarea i, the number of trips per year to subarea j equals: Ti =X Pi P (14) It should be noted here that Tij is equal to Tji and the total interaction = 2Tij. Distance and Cost Effect Distance as a friction factor in travel comes with it, the cost, time, and effort effects to a reasonable extent. If Iij represents the actual number of trips between the i-th and j-th subareas, then for a number of subareas having different distances inbetween a straight line relation could be found by plotting distances dij against actual over theoretical number of trips on a log-log scale as in Figure 41.

-204LOC z,'. \ I~7Q~ 7\N~LdLod Figure 41. Distance Effect on Travel Pattern. Therefore log TL = a - b log dij (15) where a is a constant which is the intercept of the straight line with Y axis, and b is a constant defined by the slope of the line. Let c equal the antilog of a, we have Iij _ c Tij d-j il or I - cTi (16) Substituting in Equation (16) the value of Tij given in Equation (14) and letting G = c /P where c, and p are constants as defined earlier, we obtain D PiPj (17) JiJ

-205The sum of interaction between subarea i and all other subdivisions could be evaluated then as n P n P n C Iij = G i iL (18) j= j=l j Dividing both sides by Pi to determine the per capita or per unit of mass total interaction with all the region including subarea i itself: n Ii n P. P1i jj=1 ij replacing the left hand side by the symbol /i which usually designates a potential of interaction at the center of gravity of subarea i therefore: n pj Pi G. l. d (19) j=l Oij Social Effect We have seen from Table XXIX of Part B of this chapter how the consumption function of transportation varies according to so many social differences and how we developed Pi in Equation (3). Pi could be inserted in Equation (17) through Equation (19) and could be associated with either Pi or Pj depending on the situation as will be seen latero Land Use Effect It is evident that weight of land use cannot be evenly distributed in all subdivisions in a metropolis. Since this is the case then

-206each subarea should be weighed according to the type of activities it creates, which attract different sizes of traffic volume. If Wi designates a potential power of attraction of the i-th subarea due to its land use, then this factor could be inserted in Equations (17) through (19) to give with the use of /i a final form of travel interaction between an area and the rest of the regions. Then Equation (17) after inserting Ki and wi becomes I KiPi x wjPj (20) Ij G - a d- (20) Where G = c/P and Ki = pi ~ Similarly I = KjP x wP (21) Iji G (21) d — ji That is at this point we no longer claim that Iij = Iji since Kiwj is not always equal to Kjwi. The total interaction then between subareas i and j equals Iij + Iji Equation (18) becomes n - nX w -I- G E KiPi x wP j (22) TiJ = a ~G~Zj- P (22) j =1 3 j=1 dij j~l j~l I Similarly n - K P x w.P. I.i G 3 2.1 i1i (23) i=j=l db. Also Equation (19) becomes =Gi _ Ki xw EiP< (25) j-l 3dij

-207Where n P.:F.. Pi and represents the potential of each individual in subarea i to interact with the rest of the region. Similarly = G Piwi x KPj (6) j=l dji Where n Iji P and represents the interaction of the rest of the region including subarea i on a per capita basis with the i-th subarea. We also, instead of using the per capita potential of the whole region in Equation (26) can limit it to Pi instead of P so that we can apply the potential equation at any point instead of at any subarea and the equation becomes n w- x KjPj j= db. (27) Therefore the difference between i as J is that / in Equation (26) represents the interaction between each individual in the region with the total subarea i, while J, is the total interaction of all people of the rest of the region with a point J in any subarea i. If an origin and destination studies as well as land use evaluation as related to its attractive power for passengers are available for a certain area then G and wJ in the last series of equations

-208could be solved. In our case this type of information is not available and instead we have the path of each line of the network and the volume of traffic carried by each line. Evaluation of a Path of a Line Assume a bus line BL1 starts from an origin bus stop 1 to a final destination stop, as in Figure 42. Assume further that at each bus stop the population of the community which can use that line is known, i.e., from P1 to Pn............ r fic voLume Figure 42. Traffic Volume Along a Line Path. To describe the volume of passengers using the line at any stop from one direction to another, say from origin to destination, then at any bus stop, say i we have: a) The sum of passengers living in communities from 1 to i and choose their origin at any stop from 1 to i but their destination varies from 1 to n. This value has a positive value. b) The sum of passengers of the previous sections having their destination points at any point from 1 to i. This sum has a negative value.

-209c) The sum of passengers living in communities from i to n who are present at any stop from 1 to i and returning to their origin from i to n. This sum has a positive value. For part a, n at stop 1 = j Iij j=2 n at stop 2 = I2j j=3 n at stop 3 = I 3j j=4 n at stop i = Ii j=i+l For part b, at stop 1 = zero at stop 2 = -Ill + I12 at stop 4 = - Iij + 23 + 24 + 34 at stop = -ji i i i n at stop 5 = -| E Iij + _I2j + I3j + 4j

-210i i at stop i = - Z E Ii-l,J i=l j=i-l n For part c, at stop 1 = ~ Iji j-2 n n at stop 2 = ~ Ij2 + L Ij2 j=-2 j=3 n n n at stop 3 = _ Il + Ij2 + Ij3 j=2 j =3 j=4 at stop i = T Ij4, i i=l j =i+l The line path equation then will be, at any stop i the volume of traffic (V) using that line LS is equal n i -n _i i(28) VLS = E Iij + Z Iij - J Ii-, j (28) j=i+l i=l j=i+l i=l j=i-l Iij and Iji as shown in Equations (20) and (21). Equation (28) is ideally applicable in the case of a railway line passing the centers of regions or Governorates in our case, especially the Upper Egypt line from Aswan to Cairo where there is no interferences from other lines. Also it is applicable in the case of a bus line working between two cities and passing by scattered villages. In an urban area it is difficult to apply this equation except where we can define exactly the area accessible to that line at each stop, i.e., we have to replace our subdivisions which are limited by existing political boundaries with other divisions having boundaries measured by walking distance from the stop of a line. The second

-211restriction to use this equation is that this line should not be intercepted or overlapped by another line. This is rarely the case in an urban area using many mixed and flexible public transport systems. Still if we can overcome the above difficulties we cannot apply this equation to the case of Cairo since G and wi are not known and cannot be replaced by other measures as they are used now in Equation (28). Alternative Solution Let us now restate the available data in some systematic and diagrammatic form, as in Figure 43. G 0 50 /00Q 2 050~ TI, 6>150 O c~BLEV L fi - Figure 43. Representation of a Network in a Space a) The center of gravity of subareas i from 1 to n designated by 0

-212b) Some lines passing points not necessarily the c.g. of the subareas. Assume only two overlapping lines BL10 and RL1 as shown in Figure 43. c) We have identified the path of each line as passing through some points of known coordinates. BL10 passes through points 20, 30, 50, 100, 150 and 250. RL1 passes through points 1, 15, 30, 50, 100, 150, 160 and 170. From the previous equations the only one which explains the interaction between any point in the space of a region with the rest of that region is equation P d w, x KjP j=l di. J2 where J is a point or a stop on the network and varies from 1 to N. In this equation G is unknown, Kj is known for each subdivision, b is practically chosen equals 2 to be exactly describing a physical phenomena and finally we have wi at a point and not at all subareas as needed in all other equations. So this is the equation that needs least information. If we somehow find a notion which explains wj at any point where a line or more passes through, then this equation could be of a great help. The equation then in its final form is wj x KjiPj =G E wJ Kx G = G after its adjustment (29) j=l d2 when b equals to 2. dji d) We have the volume of traffic through each line which theoretically should equal to the sum of the potentials /J at the points where this line passes, if not overlapping,occurs. For RL1

-213the volume of traffic from the original point (1) up to point 16, i.e., VRL1 (1, 15, 16) should equal to P1 + P15 + P16, that is, N N wJx KjPj VL = Z i j = T (30) J=l J=l djJ When the line is overlapped, say at points 30, 50, 100, 150, then it is logical to assume that the share of RL1 from the total traffic available at these points is proportional to the ratio capacity of RL1 i.e., L total provided capacity at each point e) It remains then to find some way to measure wj in Equation (30). If our public transport network in the city of Cairo had been distributed properly to provide a capacity equal to/Or in proportion to the demand at any point on that network, then it is also logical to assume that wj (the degree of attractiveness to travel due to land use effect) at any point J is equal to travel demand at the same point. It follows that wJ is proportional to the provided capacity at a point J to the total provided capacity of the network. That is, WJ J == L (31) 2:<SI C Where ZT-LS = 4/equals the sum of the total provided capacity of all lines on the network.

-214Equation (29) then becomes: VLSJ = L LSj1 (PJ j YJ d2J t Therefore, VLSJ GS 2 (32) JJ If LS represents d -. * CiZ d2 Therefore, VLS = G LS (33) f) Since we have the values of all VLSJ for 1960, and since the values of \LSJ could be calculated for 1960 also, then we can plot both values with VLSJ on the vertical axis and ) LSJ on the horizontal axis we can draw a fitted straight line passing through the origin and representing the public transport behavior in an urban area. The slope of that line is equal to G which takes care of the distance effect over the total populations as shown in Figure 44. For both years 1975 and 1985 we can calculate the LSJ and from the straight line relation we can project the values of VLSJ.

-215VLs L~^_ —-------------- )Ls Figure 44. Public Transport Behavior in an Urban Area. Do Results and Their Analysis 1. Calculated values of Ki are shown in Appendix C. Ki as defined before, is the average per capita number of trips per year for each economically active member in each subarea. The values of Ki vary from 442 trips for subarea d150, to 1100 trips for subarea d198. Each of these members work at least 260 days per year. That is, if he has to use the public transportation system for his way to work and vice versa, he has to make at least 520 trips per year. In other words, in the poorer community at least 13% of the trips to work have been consumed within that community on foot, while the richest community has consumed its normal trips to work outside that community and exceeded that by 111% for trips other than work purposes. Projected values of Ki for 1975 and 1985 have been also shown in Appendix Co 2. Figure 45 shows some points obtained from the available data of 1960 for VLs, and the calculated values of fLS for the same year.

-2161800 1483 - O* 1167 - oo.o 850 - S S 533 -.0 ~ ~ ~ 0S 0 9 ~ 251 * * 0 200 450 700 950 1200 145C Figure 45. Public Transport Behavior in Cairo.

-217For all points (exclusive of BL', YL15, RL1 and RL2, for reasons explained later), the correlation coefficient between both values has been found to equal 0.65. The equation of the best fitted straight line for these points has been found to be VLS - A + b )LS (34) where A = 202 and b = 0.668 Figure 45 indicates that the straight line cuts the vertical axis rather than the horizontal. Statistically speaking the actual line that describes the relation between VLS and ~ LS can cut either axis. Since the best fitting straight line is adoped, then the value A - when it is positive - has no meaning. On the other hand, when the straight line cuts the horizontal axis at a constant value A, its equation becomes VLs = G EVLs - A] (35) The constant A then, indicates that, whenever the sum of the potentials at successive points - multiplied by YLS/V -, and when this value equals to or is less than A, then there is no need to operate any line to pass through these points. In other words, the experience of the responsible authority of any public transport shows that it is a burden to run some lines whereever )ILS a A. The maximum loss of passengers to any transport line can be -G.A., but how many times this maximum value has occurred within the network, we do not know. This would also be true for any line having I1 V\ Ls A. Then the value - GA x A does not actually represent the total traffic lost by the network. VLS becomes zero when LS equals to A. That is, N N KjPj WLS

where YLS is the total provided capacity of a line, and ~ is the total provided capacity of a network then VLS = 0. Therefore N n fa-lpT d (/ therefore xA J= Suppose that we have a new line, where only one unit is working on it. This unit has a high speed that can accommodate all the lost traffic volume. Suppose also that this unit has only one unit capacity, say a motorized bicycle for example. The WLs becomes 1: Therefore 7N n KjPj d2 = x A J=l j=l ij But since the seat occupancy of the network equals V/t, on the average, where V = E VLS which is the actual number of passengers carried by the network per unit of time. The unit of time of V should be equal to the unit of time of /. Therefore n n K.P. V d = Ax x = A x V Multiplying both sides by G to take care of the distance effect, we then designate the left hand side by Then = G x A x V (36) In other words the number of passengers that the public transport is losing, per unit of time when it does not operate its lines every where, equals 7.

-219Unfortunately, due to some serious discrepancy in the available data - which is listed below - the straight line cuts the vertical instead of the horizontal axis. This discrepancy is due to: i) the center of gravity (c.g.) of the areas has been used in this research, while it would be more accurate to use the c.g. of the population concentration especially on the edge of the city where the subdivisions are large and the population is concentrated in few spots, as in the case of d94. ii) the key map of the city - Figure 2 - showing the boundaries of its subdivisions, has some mistakes which are recorded in footnote of Page 193. These mistakes have resulted in assigning a low income level to some subdivisions - e.g., d232 - while it is known that a major part of them are of high income level. If followed that ki has been changed from 1100 to about 450 resulting in low potential values for all lines passing these subdivisions, while their traffic volumes are too high, as in the case of YL15 and BL5. iii) although I have calculated the unit capacity of each line according to some principles, but the personal judgment has played a part to reach the figures stated in Page 200. That resulted in assigning very high potentials for some lines relative to other lines, as in the case of RL1 and RL2. Provided unit capacities could be reached by sampling methods of minor and inexpensive work. iv) the model used in this research was based on measuring the potential at each stop of each line. Since we had no idea about these actual stops, some random points have been choosen and the potential of each line has been calculated. These potentials have to be adjusted as explained in Table III, Appendix D. This method is just an approximation which may include some serious deviations from the accurate calculations.

-219a3. From Equation (34), and from the calculated values of LS for 1975 and 1985, the corresponding values of VLS have been calculated and tabulated in Appendix D. The values of VLS could be easily converted to demanded capacities by dividing each value of VLS for the projected years by the seat VLS occupancy of 1960, where seat occupancy equals. Dividing these capacities by the unit capacity for each line gives the number of units needed for each line. The unit capacities given at the beginning of this chapter should be reduced for the projection years since those capacities have been calculated on the basis that it was permissible to overload each unit, a matter which should not be encouraged. Anyhow the results in Table IV, Appendix D, should not be taken as granted. This work should be done again after the proper corrections are made and the data of the actual stops is inserted.

CONCLUSIONS 1. An effort has been made in part F of the first chapter, with help of Tables X and XI - Appendix A, to analyze and discover the relation between place of residence and place of work, with the absence of sufficient information. The conclusions abstracted from that part were general, but could not lead to quantitative values when land use effects were needed in the last chapter to project the traffic volumes. The method could be carried further, especially when smaller subdivisions are analyzed by statistical techniques, to reach an average minimum requirement from each economic activity for each similar group of subareas. In Chapter IV, wi was introduced and was evaluated at some points on the transportation network. The results gave sufficient degree of confidence for this evaluation for the year 1960. Of course the values of Wi should be expected to change in 1975 and 1985 due to expected adjustment in the distribution of the network caused by the change in land use. Since there was no clear idea about the expected change in the land use effects in the future, then wi was kept constant. It is the future responsibility of Cairo's city planners to start building up sufficient information to calibrate the land use effect on transportation demand, 20 The public opinion in Egypt, even among the highly qualified bodies, is that a crucial part, to solve the congestion in the City of Cairo, is by the redistribution of all activities - especially industrial - evenly, but proportionally among all Egyptian clusters (urban cities, the Bandar, the Markaz and the village)o -220

-221Discussions in the second chapter have proven that this is a serious trend which could lead to inefficient national economy and prosperity. The dream to stop the increase of Cairo's population cannot be reached by any means. It should be realized that there is no time to be lost in dreams and hopes. The best that could be done is to lower gradually the rate of increase of the city by immediate establishment of large urban cities. The place for these large centers should not be at the Markaz or the Bandar, but they should be along the Mediterranean shores, the Red Sea shore, Sinai, the New Valley and Aswan. These centers should accommodate the population surplus of the old Nile Valley, leaving only a few of its population, sufficient enough to run activities in proportion to the Valley's economic potential. This is the only way to modernize the Old Valley. We conclude from this, that the redistribution of activities should be according to the economic potentials and not on the size of clusters, then demographic redistribution will follow. 3. The outcome of Chapter III, which has consumed a fair amount of time, is the evaluation of the social distribution and its effect on transportation. This evaluation has been translated successfully to trip pattern ()i) for each subdivision. This method used to evaluate Pi in this research is simple but successful. The choice of the economically active members instead of total population or number of families, as the independent parameter of trip generation especially in a society like that of Egypt - has also proved its validity.

-2224. Conclusions from the theoretical part has thrown some new lights on the application of the gravity model in transportation. a) The land use effect wi has been clearly defined in the new model, a matter which was vague in the literature. Since no data were available for wi from a direct sampling method at any point, it has been assumed that wi = b i/f which is total provided capacity at a point total provided capacity of the network This value could also be extended to be applicable in a society where public transport has a neglible value. Instead, 4/i/4/will equal total traffic flow at a point in number of cars/unit of time total traffic flow in the whole urban area If wi could be obtained by sampling methods, then the relation between wi and i/ L would give an excellent idea as to whether the public transportation network has been properly distributed or not. b) In the literature before, it has been thought that Iij equals Iji, a matter which has been proven to be wrong. They are only equal when social and land use effects are equal in both subareas. c) The application of the gravity model, to describe the path of a transportation line, is also a contribution to the literature. d) The model used here could be extended to clarify the following points: i) where new bridges have to allocated; ii) redistribution of a network; iii) redistribution of the community with its activities to minimize the unnecessary trips.

REFERENCES 1. Regional Census, Governorate of Cairo, 1960 Census, Issued in Jan., 1963. 2. Organization of Public Transport of Cairo, 1962-63 Report, 1963. 3. Special Report from the Director General of U.A.R. Organization of Internal Transport (O.I.T.). 4. U.A.R. Year Book, 1962-63, U.A.R. Statistical Dept., 1963. 5. Davis, Ko, The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in the World, Readings in Urban Geography, Mayer and Kohn, Univ. of Chicago Press, 199. 6. U.A.R. Year Book, 1961-62, Chapter I, U.A.R. Statistical Dept., 1963. 7. Annual Statistics, 1957-58, U.A.R. Statistical Dept., 1958. 8. 1962-63 Industrial Index, U.A.R. Ministry of Industry, July 1963. 9. U.A.Ro Statistical Yearly Report, Civil Aviation Dept., 1960. 10. Khalil, M., Dr., U.A.R. Minister of Communications, Ministry of Communication Statement on the Occasion of the 11th Anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution, 1963. 11. World Bank Report on U.A.R., Chapter on "Transportation and Communication," 1963, 12. Rolman, Ho, Flune, M. and Drue, G., Le Caire Reorganisation des Transports, Cairo, 1954. 13. Yearly Report, 1959-60, UoA.R. Highway Dept., Table 6, (1960) 65. 14. Anderson, Nels, The Urban Community, New York: Holt-Dryden, (1959), 5. 15. Thompson, Warren S., "Urbanization," Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, New York: Macmillan, Vol. 5, (1931), 189. 16. Eldridge, Hope Tisdale, "The Process of Urbanization," Social Forces, Vol. 20, (March, 1942). 17. Schnore, Leo. F., "Urbanization and Economic Development: The Demographic Contribution," EKISTICS, (Feb., 1961). 18. Davis, Kingisley and Hilda Hertz Golden, The World Distribution of Urbanization, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol. 33, No. 4, (1954). -223

-22419. American Journal of Sociology, IX, (March, 1955). 20. Golden, Hilda, Literacy and Social Change in Underdeveloped Countries, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, 1952. 21. Kiser, Clyde V.,"The Demographic Position of Egypt," Milbank Memorial Fund, 1944. 22. "The Pattern of Korean Urban Growth," Rural Sociology, XIX (March, 1954), 32-38, 23. Wantnick, Morris, "The Appeal of Communism to Peoples of Underdeveloped Areas," Econ. Development and Culture Change, (March, 1952)o 24. Ibrahim, Abdel Baki, Dr., "Takhtite El Karia El-Arabia," (Planning of the Arabic Village), The 8th Arab Engineering Conference, AinShams University, Engineering School, Cairo. 25. Dalile El-Sinaat, Ministry of Industry, 1963. 26. El-Saaly, Hasan, Dr., and Hirabayaski, Gordon K., Industrialization in Alexandria, Social Research Center, American University of Cairo, 1960. 27. UoA.Ro Year Book, 1962, UoAoR. Statistical Dept., 1962. 28. Ekhtarna Lak, (We Choose for You), Issue No. 103, Cairo, 1962 29, Hawley, Amos H., Human Ecology, New York: Ronald Press Co., Chapter 17, (1950), 378. 30. "The Economist," Rostow on Growth, (Aug. 15, 1959), 409-416 and "The Take-Off into Self-Sustained Growth," Economic Journal, Vol. XLVI (March, 1956), 25-28. 31. Adler, John Ho, "Change in the Role of Resources at Different Stages of Economic Development," Natural Resources and Economic Growth, The University of Michigan, April 7-9, 1960. 32. Mead, Mo Cooperation and Competition Among Primitive Peoples, New York, (1937), 21. 33. Ali, M. Ahmed, Modesto Looks Ahead, City Planning Commission, Modesto, Calif, Dec., 1949. 34. "A Technique for Making Extensive Population Estimates," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 45, June, 1950. 35. Harris, Do L., Comparative Population and Urban Research via Multiple Regression and Covariance Analysis, Scripps Foundation, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio and Population Research and Training Center, University of Chicago, Studies in Population Distribution, No. 8, 1954.

-22536. Chapin, F. S., "Employment Forecasts for City Planning," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 20, (Spring, 1954) 37. Eberle, F. J,, "Population Estimates of Local Communities and Economic Planning," Journal of American Statistical Assoc., Vol. 33, (Dec., 1938). 38. Larmon, Elizabeth A. and Landau, E., "Projections of the Number of Households and Families, 1955 and 1960," Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 42, U.S. Bureau of Census, Washington D.C., Dec. 28, 1952. 39. "Population Shifts and Income Changes," Marketing Series, No. 52, American Management Assoc., New York, Jan., 1943. 40. Landau, Emanuel, "Projections of the Number of Households and Families, 1960 to 1975," Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 69, UoS. Bureau of the Census, Washington DC., Aug. 31, 1956. 41. Stevens, H. W., "Forecasting Urban Population Distribution,"Journal of American Institute of Planners, Vol. 13, (Summer-Fall, 1947). 42. Wolff, Ro P., "The Forecasting of Population by Census Tracts in an Urban Area," Land Economics, Vol. 28, (Nov., 1952). 43. Report Number 376, National Committee of Planning, Housing Subcommittee, Cairo, 1959. 44. The Family Budget by Sampling Methods, U.A.R. Central Committee of Census, April, 1961, Cairo. 45. "Potential Models and Spatial Distribution of Population," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 2, 1956. 46. Bevis, Howard W., "Forecasting Zonal Traffic Volume," Traffic Quarterly, Vol. 10, (April, 1956). 47. Bevis, Howard W. "Predicting Local Travel in Urban Regions," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 3, (1957). 48. "The Spatial Impact of Transport Media," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 1, (1955). 49. "Sociological Relationship of Traffic to Population and Distances," Traffic Quarterly, Vol. 8, (April, 1954). 50. Jurkat, Ernest H., "Land Use Analysis and Forecasting in Traffic Planning," Traffic Quarterly, Vol. 11, (April, 1957).

-226510 Mylroie, Willa, "Evaluation of Intercity Travel Desire," in Factors Influencing Travel Patterns, Highway Research Board, Bulletin 119, Washington D C., 1956. 52. "Empirical Mathematical Rules Concerning the Distribution and Equilibrium of Population," Geographical Review, Vol. 37, (July, 1947). 53. Stouffer, Samuel A., "Intervening Opportunities: A Theory Relating Mobility and Distance," American Sociological Review, Vol. 5, (Dec., 1940). 54. Voorhees, Ao Mo, "A General Theory of Traffic Movement," Proceedings of the Institute of Traffic Engineers, 1955. 55. Zipf, George K., Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort, Addison-Wesley Press, Reading, Massachusetts, 1949. 56. "The PP2/D Hypothesis on the Intercity Movement of Persons," American Sociological Review, Vol. 11, (Octo, 1946). 57. Carroll, J.Douglas, "Spatial Interaction and the Urban-Metropolitan Description," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 1, 1955.

APPENDIX A DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS IN CAIRO TABLE I NATIONAL POPULATION GROWTH IN EGYPT Census Females Males Total Arabs Not % Increase Year Included Per Year 1852 3,362,500 3,343,325 6, 705,825 98,196 - 1897 4,743,740 4,891,012 9,634,752 79,773 2.9 1907 5,573,338 5,616,640 11,189,978 97,381 1.6 1917 6,348,738 6,369,517 12,713,255 32,663 1.4 1927 7, 119,791 7,058,073 14,177,864 40,000 1. 1937 7,954,019 7,966,675 15,920,694 12, 000 1.2 1947 9,575,039 9,391,728 18,966,767 55,073 1.9 1960 12,915,580 13,067,820 25,983,400 - 2.85 TABLE II PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION TO TOTAL POPULATION Census % Urban to % Urban Increase Year Total Per Year 1882 19 1897 20 3.52 1907 19 1.04 1917 21 2.49 1927 23 2.21 1937 25 2.18 1947 31 4.8 1960 38 3.12 -227

TABLE III POPULATION GROWTH IN CAIRO AND OTHER MAJOR CITIES IN (000)s* LOWER EGYPT Census Egypt Cairo(l) Alex- Port Ismailia Suez Dimiatta(2) Tanta Year No. % No. % andria Said No. % No. % No. No. No. %% No. % 1882 6,706 -- 399 -- 233 -- 17 - - - 11 - -- 34 1897 9,635 2.9 590 3.2 316 2.4 43 10.2 - -- 17 3.6 - - 57 1907 11,190 1.6 678 1.5 356 1.2 51 1.9 - -- 18 0.6 - -- 54 1917 12,718 1.4 791 1.7 445 2.6 75 4.8 - -- 31 6.9 - -- 74 1927 14,178 1.1 1,065 3.5 573 2.9 104 3.8 - -- 41 3.1 -- - 90 1937 15,961 1.2 1.312 2.3 686 2.0 125 2.0 36 -- 50 2.3 40 -- 95 1947 18,967 1.9 2,091 5.9 914 3.4 178 4.0 68 6.8 107 4.5 54 2.7 140 1960 25,983 2.85 3,736 6.1 1,516 5.0 245 2.9 284 2.4 204 7.0 388? 184 LOWER EGYPT UPPER EGYPT Census Tanta Mansoura Aswan Asuit Minia Year % No. 4 No. % No. % No. % 1882 -- 32 - 37 -- 191897 4.6 37 1.2 - - 47 1.8 27 2.8 1907 0 42 1.2 - - 52 1.1 31 15 1917 3.6 51 2.3 - - 50 1.5 39 2.6 1927 2.1 64 2.4 - - 66 1.1 48 2.2 1937 0.6 69 0.8 -- - 07 55 15 1947 4.7 102 4.8 - - 9 2.7 70 2.8 1950 2.4 151 3.7 48 12 3.3 95 2.7 (1) Political boundaries of Cairo have been changed before 1960 Census, the Governorate's population is 3,349,000 but 3,736,000 was put to adjust for the previous boundaries. (2) Governorate of Dimiatta has extended its boundaries, so the sharp increase between 1947 and 1960 is partially due to that change. The city of Dimiatta itself was 72,000 in 1960. *Materials are collected from "Master Plan of Cairo", 1956 and 1960 Census.

-229TABLE IV CAIRO POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY SEX, FAMILIES, AND PERSONS PER FAMILY District Males Females % Males Total No. of Persons per Total Families Family El Azbakia 52,313 29,719 53.6 64,032 14,082 4.3 El Gamalia 72,970 68,754 51.5 141,724 29,168 4.8 El Khalifa 83,304 78,654 51.4 161,958 33,146 4.8 El Darb El-Ahmar 76, 065 72,541 51.2 148,606 28,795 5.1 El Zaytoun 50,993 49,381 50.8 100,374 20,796 4.8 El Sahil 155,282 148,320 51.1 303,602 62,415 4.9 El Saida Zeinab 128,405 125,243 50.6 253,648 50,468 5.0 El Daher 52, 164 47,453 52.4 99,617 18,551 5.1 El Mattaria 82,307 78,513 51.2 160,820 33,663 4.9 El Maadi 45,054 37,946 54.3 83,000 16,080 4.7 El Mouski 20,062 18,407 52.2 38,469 7,788 4.8 El Wayli 155,951 151,222 50.8 307,173 62,117 4.8 Bab El-Sharia 77,897 75,234 50.9 153,131 30,993 4.9 Boulak 103,907 98,116 51.4 202,023 44,302 4.5 Helwan 49,323. 45,062 52.3 94,385 19, 059 4.9 Rod El-Farag 135,106 130,033 51.0 265,139 53,413 5.0 Shoubra 152,928 143, 80 51.0 296, 068 63,395 5.0 Abdin 48,398 46,571 51.0 94,960 20,335 5.0 Kasr El-Nile 21,889 21,205 50.8 43,094 11,209 3.7 Heliopolis 60,852 63,922 49.8 124,774 26,385 4.7 Masr El-Kedima 107,135 105,098 50.5 212,233 42,894 4.9 Kism Giza (1) 74,000 71,332 50.9 145,332 29,654 4.8 Kism Giza (2) 52,764 52,438 50.2 105,202 22,390 4.7 Bender Imbaba 69,196 67,233 50.7 136,429 27,683 4.9 Kism El-Ahram 5,974 5,710 51.1 11,684 1,956 5.6 Shoubra El-Khima 52,897 47,710 52.6 100,617 22,320 4.5

-230TABLE V AGE DISTRIBUTION IN CAIRO Cairo, % of Total Egypt, % of Total Age Group Male Female Total Male Female Total Less than 1 year 3.35 3.4 33-5 209 208 2085 1-4 years 12,40 12,3 12.35 13.2 12.8 13 0 5-9 years 14,50 14.1 14, 60 15 1 14.1 14o 6 10-14 years 12.10 12.9 12o40 12 6 11 8 12.2 15-19 years 8.55 9.1 8085 8.5 8.0 8.25 20-29 years 15 10 16o7 15.90 13.6 15 0 14.30 30.39 years 14.10 13.1 13.50 12.7 13.4 13.0 40-49 years 9.40 8,1 8.70 9.4 9.2 9o3 50-59 years 5.80 5.5 5.65 6o3 6.4 6,3 More than 60 years 4.70 4.8 4.70 5.7 6,5 6.1 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

TABLE VI POPULATION AND DENSITY DISTRIBUTION IN CAIRO Area in Kim2 Population Pop. Density % % Person Kim2 % Persons District 1947 1960 Increase 1947 1960 Increase 1947 1960 Increase Per Room 1 El-Azbakia 1.703 1.70 0.0 75,421 64,032 15.10 44,287 37,666 16.95 i.8 2 El-Gamalia 4.47 4.80 7.38 o108,744 141,724 30.33 24,097 29,526 22.53 2.8 3 El-Khalifa 25.42 8.60 66.16 122,660 161,958 32.04 4,825 18,832 253.60 2.6 4 El-Darb El-Ahmar 2.71 2.80 3.33 123,195 148,6o6 20.63 45,047 53,074 17.82 2.7 5 El-Zaytoun - 4.20 -- -- 100,374 -- -- 23,899 -- 2.2 6 El-Sahil -- 6.20 - - 303,602 48,969 - 2.3 7 El-Saida Zeinab 4.05 3.50 13.58 193,864 253,648 30.84 47,581 72,471 52.31 2.3 8 El-Daher - 1.90- - 99,617 - - 52,430 - 1.8 9 El-Mataria -- 67.90 -- -- 160,820 -2,369 - 2.4 10 El-Maadi -- 25.10 - - 83,000 3,307 -- 2.2 11 El-Mouski 0.59 0.60 0.0 35,963 38,469 6.97 61,165 64,115 4.83 2.2 12 El-Wayli 15.78 16.50 4.56 207,370 307,173 48.13 13,143 18,617 41.65 2.4 13 Bab El-Sharia 1.84 1.10 7.09 133,334 153,131 14.85 112,182 139,210 24.09 2.7 14 Boulak 13.71 2.70 80.31 232,602 202,023 13.15 14,826 74,823 404.67 3.1 r 15 Helwan - 6.40 - -94,385- - 14,748 2.4 t 16 Rod El-Farag 4.79 2.70 43.64 195,890 265,139 35.35 40,501 98,200 142.46 2.3 17 Shoubra 25.72 7.30 71.54 229,696 296,008 28.87 8,826 40,549 359.46 2.0 18 Abdin 6.80 1.70 74.98 119,956 94,969 20.83 17,638 55,864 216.71 1.9 19 Kasr El-Nile - 6.00oo - - 43,094 - - 7,182 - 1.0 20 Heliopolis 55.07 32.30 41.35 165,131 124,774 24.44 2,817 3,863 37.13 1.3 21 Masr El-Kadima 16.65 10.20 38.74 117,552 212,233 80.54 6,227 20,807 234.10 2.4 22 Kism Giza (1) 1.6 5.2 - 66,157 145,332 - 41,348 27,949 - 2.1 23 Kism Giza (2) 1.6 8.0 66,157 105,202 - 41,348 13,1501.6 24 Bander Imbaba - - - - 136,429 -~- 2.6 25 Kism El-Ahram - - - - 11,684 - -- 2.2 26 Shoubra El-Khima -- 29.6 -- 100,617 -- -- -- 2.8

-232TABLE VII: POPULATION AND DENSITY DISTRIBUTION IN CAIRO(1) Area in Km2 % Population % District 1947 1960 Increase 1947 1960 Increase 1 Azbakia 1.6o 1.70 6.25 54,549 75,421 38.26 2 El-Gamalia 4.50 4.47 0.6 74,291 108,744 46.37 3 El-Khalifa 15.20 25.42 67.23 81, 46 122,660 51.34 4 El-Darb El-Ahmar 2.80 2.71 3.2 81,112 123,195 51.88 5 El-Zaytoun -- 6 El-Sahil- -- - 7 El-Saida Zeinab 4.00 4.05 1.25 128,216 193,864 51.12 8 El-Daher- -- - 9 El-Mataria- -- - 10 El-Maadi - --- 11 El-Mouski 0.50 0.59 18.0 25,919 35,963 38.37 12 El-Wayli 16.40 15.78 3.78 123,754 207,370 67.57 13 Bab El-Sharia 1.20 1.18 1.67 87,113 133,334 53.05 14 Boulak 14.10 13.70 2.79 156,639 232,602 48.50 15 Helwan- --- 16 Rod El-Farag 5.80 4.79 17.40 115,756 195,890 69.23 17 Shoubra 13.00 25.72 97.80 117,871 228,696 94.02 18 Abdin 17.11 6.80 60.25 112,697 119,956 6.44 19 Kasr El-Nile- - - 20 Heliopolis 54.90 55.01 0.20 87,771 165,131 88.13 21 Masr El-Kadima 13.8 16.648 20.64 66,792 117,552 75.99 Population Density(2) District 1937 1947 % Increase 1 Azbakia 34,093 44,287 29.90 2 El-Gamalia 16,509 24, 097 45.96 3 El-Khalifa 5,332 5,325 4 El-Darb El-Ahmar 28,971 45,047 55.48 5 El-Zaytoun- - 6 El-Sahil 7 El-Saida Zeinab 32,054 47,581 48.44 8 El-Daher 9 El-Mataria 10 El-Maadi - - 11 El-Mouski 51,838 61,161 17.98 12 El-Wayli 7,546 13,143 74.17 13 Bab El-Sharia 72,594 112,182 54.50 14 Boulak 11,109 14,826 33.46 15 Helwan 16 Rod El-Farag 19,958 40,501 102.93 17 Shoubra 9, 067 8,827 2.65 18 Abdin 6,507 17,638 171.00 19 Kasr El-Nile - - 20 Heliopolis 1,599 2,817 76.17 21 Masr El-Kadima 4,840 6,227 28.65 (1) Calculated from the 1960 Census Populations (this and the following table). (2) Gross Density in Persons per Km.2

-233TABLE VIII RESIDENTIAL MOVEMENT IN CAIRO 1937 - 47 Reliability District P7 D7xRlx A7D7XR2A1 1-2 1-3 of Results 1 El-Azbakia 75,421 69,046 42,371 + + Reliable II 2 El-Gamalia 108,744 87,913 117,611 + + Reliable II 3 El-Khalifa 122,660 161,469 216, 060 - Reliable(not)I 4 E1-Darb El-Ahmar 123,195 93,531 125,128 + - Reliable II 7 El-Saida Zeinab 193,864 154,654 206,899 + - Reliable II 11 El-Mouski 35, 963 36, 436 48, 744 - - Reliable II 12 El-Wayli 207,370 141, 856 184,777 + + Reliable III 13 Bab El-Sharia 133,334 102,049 136,522 + - Fair II 14 Boulak 232,602 181,309 242,558 + - Reliable II 16 Rod El-Farag 195,890 113,888 152,361 + + Reliable III 17 Shoubra. 228,696 277,817 371,668 - - Reliable(not)I 18 Abdin 119,956 52,713 70,520 + + Reliable III 20 Heliopolis 165,131 104,789 140,188 + + Reliable III 21 Masr El-Kadima 117, 552 95,991 128, 419 + - Fair II 1941 - 1960 1 El-Azbakia 66,032 103,137 121,748 - - Reliable I 2 El-Gamalia 141,724 158,450 187,043 - - Reliable I 3 El-Khalifa 161,958 56,844 67,102 + + Fair III 4 El-Darb El-Ahmar 148,606 172,788 203,967 - - Reliable I 7 El-Saida Zeinab 253,648 228,134 269,301 + - Fair II 11 El-Mouski 38,469 50,271 59,342 - Reliable I 12 El-Wayli 307,173 297,076 350,363 + - Fair II 13 Bab El-Sharia 153,131 169,046 199,550 - - Fair I 14 Boulak 202,023 54,837 64,733 + + Reliable(not)III 16 Rod El-Farag 265,139 149,802 176,834 + + Fair III 17 Shoubra 296,008 88,262 104,189 + + Fair III 18 Abdin 94,969 41,076 48,488 + + 20 Heliopolis 124,774 124,646 147,138 - - Reliable(not)I 21 Masr El-Kadima 212,233 87, 010 102,711 + + Fair III P47 and P60: Population in the Censuses 1947 and 1960' Respectively D37 and D47: "Density in the Censuses 1937 and 1947" A47 and A60: District Areas in the Censuses 1947, 1960 R2 and R2: "Cairo's percent of population increase between 1937-47 and 1947-60 Respectively R1 and R1: Egypt's population increase between 1937-47 and 1947-60 Respectively R1 = 19.131%; R2 = 59.375%; R1 = 36.99%; R2 —= 61.71

-234Negative sign in Column 4 indicates that population in a district is decreasing, Positive sign in Column 4 indicates that population in a district is increasing with a rate higher than the natural increase of the country. Negative sign in Column 5 indicates that population in a district is not receiving a relative share of migrants to inhabit ino The positive sign in Column 5 is the result of migration from outside the city and people moving between districts within Cairo, We have three groups of districts; (1) the (-,-) group indieating an absolute reduction in population or a slight increase in population but less than the natural growth of population, the difference should indicate the number of people moving to another area; (2) the (+, ) group, where the population has increased at a rate higher than the natural growth rate but less than the urban growth of Cairo. Districts of this group have failed to receive their share of migrants; (3) the (+,+) group represents local advantages which attract migrants as well as people of other districts of Cairo seeking better locational or prestige advantages, Not all the results of this table can be taken for granted, because of the sharp changes in political boundaries, Districts which have no slight change in area give reliable resultso Others which have sharp changes in their areas and their results are unreasonable, e.g,, I know for a fact that Heliopolis has seen a vast increase between 1947 and 1960 but the results indicate it in the (-, ) group which is 100 percent rejected, the sharp change in the area is responsible for that result o

-235TABLE IX LITERACY Persons % of Graduates District *Total Pop. Literacy having of District to (000)s University Total of Cairo Degree 1 48 62.00 1,680 2.11 2 97 41.43 526 0.66 3 112 46.54 1,356 1.70 4 103 50.15 1,482 1.86 5 69 57.69 2,333 2.93 6 203 55.95 4,943 6.21 7 180 58.99 5,789 7.28 8 74 70.27 3,578 4.50 9 106 45.91 1, 16 1.46 10 59 45.23 1,764 2.22 11 27 54.04 357 0.45 12 212 54.33 6,484 8.15 13 106 45.49 1,041 1.31 14 139 40.54 744 0.93 15 65 49.19 1,223 1.54 16 185 57.25 5,017 6.30 17 202 49.25 3,356 4.22 18 71 64.80 3,023 3.80 19 35 74.29 4,943 6.31 20 95 74.59 9,455 11.88 21 147 50.73 5,639 7.09 22 104 58.33 5,277 6.63 23 77 62.75 7,221 9.07 24 91 50.44 940 1.18 25 8 41.35 121 0.15 26 67 35.65 110 0.14 Total 2,682 54.25 79,562 100 (Cairo) 18,052 30.26 145,499 -- (Egypt) 14.83 30.26 54.68 -- (% Cairo to Egypt) * Population 10 years and above. * Source: from Census of 1960.

TABLE X ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN CAIRO ITS DISTRIBUTION AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS IN EACH DISTRICT Construc- Electric- Transport Unspec- NonDistrict Agriculture Mining Industry tion ity Trade Comm. Services ified active Total 1 0.44 o.o6 6.84 1.28 o.49 9.37 2.54 16.99 1.22 60.77 100 2 0.13 0.23 11.60 1.27 0.27 8.23 1.62 9.86 0.94 65.89 100 3 0.07 0.16 8.95 2.65 0.22 3.93 1.70 13.40 1.23 67.70 100 4 0.09 0.02 10.29 0.74 0.20 6.96 1.39 12.69 0.83 66.79 100 5 0.32 0.04 5.61 1.67 0.39 4.33 3.13 17.51 1.23 65.76 100 6 0.29 0.02 8.22 1.39 0.97 4,61 3.51 13.05 1.29 66.62 100 7 0.17 0.03 5.94 1.48 0.27 5.06 1.60 18.23 1.17 66.03 100 8 0.13 0.06 5.54 o.64 0.23 6.31 1.87 21.40 1.35 62.48 100 9 3.95 0.03 5.81 1.57 0.71 4.11 2.77 12.31 1.56 67.22 100 10 1.88 4.17 5.39 2.07 0.25 3.98 2.08 14.39 0.93 67.86 10 11 0.37 0.02 4.16 0.77 0.18 9.93 1.55 13.54 1.21 64.26 100 12 0.38 0.04 5.64 2.05 0.35 4.37 2.46 16.89 1.26 66.53 100 13 0.05 0.02 11.85 0.89 0.26 6.47 1.86 11.27 1.39 65.62 100 14 0.09 0.02 9.05 2.6o0 0.96 7.15 2.95 10.01 1.36 65.76 oo 15 2.17 0.35 13.13 2.03 1.00 2.40 1.18 o10.86 1.54 65.36 100 16 0.12 0.01 6.24 1.41 0.70 6.14 3.95 13.40 1.25 66.75 100 17 0.38 o.96 7.83 1.91 0.86 5.98 3.94 12.19 1.23 65.62 100 18 0.17 0o.o4 6.20 0.88 0.26 7.03 1.6919.o6 1.63 62.88 100 19 0.54 0.14 3.45 1.02 0.19 6.14 1.78 32.95 1.69 52.03 100 20 0.33 0.08 2.49 1.2 0.21 5.67 2.32 25.86 1.22 60.24 100 21 0.26 O.OS 6.66 2.29 0.26 5.17 1.91 16.09g 0.91 66.04 100 22 0.87 0.04 4.62 1.49 0.24 4.90 2.08 18.34 1.22 66.14 100 23 0.67 0.18 2.16 1.280.29 4.54 1.42 26.08 1.o6 62.27 100 24 0.63 o.o6 7.70 1.64 0.54 4.05 3.13 12.49 1.36 68.18 100 25 2.92 0.19 2.20 2.12 0.12 3.70 1.52 18.13 0.52 68.58 100 26 3.84 0.01 19.97 1.04 0.33 2.73 1.58 5.03 0.66 64.63 100 o.61 0.09.50 1.61 0.48 5.41 2.45 15.o6 1.22 65.55 2600

TABLE XI ECONOMIC ACTIVITY DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONS ENGAGED IN EACH ACTIVITY IN EACH DISTRICT Manufac- Construc- ElectricDistrict Agriculture Mining turing tion ity Trade Transport Services Population 1 1.25 1.21 1.59 1.39 1.78 3.02 1.80 1.97 1.66 2 0276 9.84 5.67 2.90 1.66 5.58 2.42 2.40 3.68 3 o.46 7.97 5.04 6.96 9.95 3.36 2.93 3.75 4.21 4 0.60 0.70 4.33 1.69 1.6o 5.00 2.19 3.27 3.86 5 1.34 1.06 1.93 2.67 2.09 2.06 3.29 3.00 2.61 6 3.71 2.13 8.42 6.65 15.65 6.54 11.00 6.65 7.89 7 1.91 2.34 5.30 6.17 3.73 6.26 4.36 8.69 6.59 8 0.57 1.10 2.00 1.08 1.33 3.16 2.07 3.86 2.59 9 25.98 1.28 3.12 3.92 5.95 2.05 4.54 3.29 4.18 10 6.64 28.96 1.56 2.79 1.12 1.59 1.83 2.07 2.16 11 o.61 0.22 1.10 0.49 0.38 1.86 0.64 0.91 1.00 12 4.94 3.52 5.96 10.09 5.75 6.40 7.95 8.87 7.98 13 0.32 0.81 6.31 2.21 2.17 4.78 3.03 3.07 3.98 14 0.77 0.92 6.29 8.42 10.45 6.89 6.27 3.48 5.25 D 15 8.53 9.80 4.21 3.04 5.03 1.07 1.16 1.74 2.45 16 1.38 1.25 5.73 6.06 1o.o8 7.82 11.10 6.13 6.89 17 4.71 3.78 7.90 9.02 13.57 8.36 12.14 6.12 7.69 18 0.71 1.32 2.13 1.42 1.36 3.35 1.78 3.27 2.47 19 1.18 2.02 0.56 0.78 0.49 1.40 0.88 2.69 1.12 20 1.86 3.05 1.26 2.71 1.48 3.60 3.25 5.89 3.24 21 2.36 5.47 5.02 8.05 3.00 5.26 4.27 5.87 5.51 22 5.45 1.83 2.35 3.55 1.90 3.46 3.23 4.65 3.78 23 3.07 5.87 0.81 2.23 1.72 2.36 1.63 4.86 2.73 24 3.56 2.57 3.54 3.53 3.87 2.58 4.40 2.86 3.54 25 1.44 o.66 0.09 0.40 0.07 0.21 0.19 0.36 0.33 26 15.87 0.29 6.74 1.63 1.78 1.28 1.62 0.87 2.61 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total in Egypt 0.43 12.91 32.84 33.68 40.46 26.34 28.43 34.34 14.81 Constructed from Table in "Regional Census", issued January, 1963 for 1960 Census.

TABLE XII LABOR FORCE DISTRIBUTION **Non- Active Active Active District *Labor Force Active Females to Females in Females in Unemployment ki% Total Active Female L.F. Total L.F. 1 54,448 39.2 13.1 10.8 5.0 2.0 2 114,482 34.1 5.5 3.8 1.8 1.5 3 131,782 32.3 8.2 5.3 2.6 2.0 4 121,322 33.2 8.5 5.7 2.8 1.4 5 80,480 34.2 13.5 9.2 4.5 1.7 6 239,838 33.4 9.2 6.2 3.0 1.6 7 208,751 34.0 15.1 14.4 5.0 1.8 8 84,737 37.5 17.7 13.7 6.5 1.5 9 125,579 32.8 6.6 4.2 2.1 2.0 10 67,605 32.1 9.1 6.3 2.9 1.1 11 31,621 35.7 9.7 7.1 3.4 1.7 12 247,068 33.5 12.9 8.6 4.2 1.6 13 124, 721 34.4 8.8 6.0 2.9 1.9 14 162,638 34.3 5.8 4.0 1.9 1.9 15 75,234 34.6 7.6 5.4 2.6 1.6 6 16 215,213 33.3 11.2 7.4 3.6 1.7 17 236,181 34.3 8.0 5.5 2.7 1.7 0 18 80,585 34.1 16.1 11.9 5.8 0.8 19 38,423 48.0 27.9 26.9 13.27 0.9 20 107,183 39.8 28.2 21.5 11.1 1.4 21 171,654 34.0 14.6 9.8 4.9 1.6 22 119,287 33.9 15.6 10.5 5.2 1.3 23 87, 690 37.7 24.2 18.0 9.0 0.8 24 107, 618 31.8 6.31 4.0 2.0 1.6 25 9,401 31.4 7.4 4.7 2.3 0.4 26 79,042 35.4 2.3 1.7 0.8 1.2 Total 3,122, 623 34.5 11.8 8.2 4.0 1.6 Egypt 21,061,321 7.7 5.6 2.8 * Labor Force (L.F.); Those above 6 years of age. ** Active: Those who are actually working. This table is constructed from "Regional Census", January, 1963, 1960 Census.

-239TABLE XIII NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ARRIVING AND DEPARTING FROM CAIRO AIRPORT IN 1960 Africa 33,316 Europe 131,224 Ethiopia 5,745 Albania 1,241 Kenya 794 Austria 2,457 Uganda 57 Belgium 1, 581 Congo 510 Bulgaria 35 Aretriya 3,753 Czechoslovakia 4,712 Somalia 57 Denmark 1, 940 Madagascar 398 England 7,456 Tanganyika 712 France 5,870 Johanisburg 15 Germany 9, 622 Khartoum 20,233 Greece 38,550 Port-Sudan 1, 042 Hungary 903 Italy 25,386 Luxemburg 58 Asia 24, 691 Holland 3,984 Portugal 14 Aden 2, 079 Spain 153 El-Bahrian 1, 092 Switzerland 17, 904 Burma 164 Sweden 3 Ceylon 460 Yugoslavia 3,588 China 545 U.S.S.R. 5,767 Singapore 887 India 8,271 Indonesia 161 Middle East 165,012 Iran 281 Japan 669 Iraq 1,995 Malaya 28 Jordan 28, 814 Pakistan 3,460 Kuwait 20, 953 Philippines 77 Lebanon 65,180 Siam 1,988 Saudi Arabia 47,985 Turkey 3,955 Qatar 85 Vietnam 74 U.S.A. 1,856 Australia 324 Mediterranean 9, 240 Libya 8, 994 Cyprus 241 Tunisia 5

-240TABLE XIV NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES IN EGYPT BY YEAR Private Private & Sub- MotorYear Automobiles Taxi Taxi Bus Lorries Total Cycle 1940 25,119 4,098 29,217 1,325 2,923 33,465 2,116 1941 24,881 4, 171 29,052 1,393 3,539 33,922 2, 110 1942 24, 503 4, 172 28,675 1,392 4, 137 34, 204 2, 326 1943 23,591 4,289 27,880 1,326 4,073 33,279 2, 597 1944 22, 843 4, 532 27,375 1,403 4, 974 32, 752 29 709 1945 22, 451 4,944 27, 395 1,629 5,209 34, 233 2, 931 1946 25,193 5,755 30,948 1,997 7,500 40,445 4, 277 1947 29,710 6,301 36,011 2,273 8,859 47,143 4, 277 1948 35,590 6,834 42,424 2,720 10,043 55,187 5,271 1949 42,747 8,880 51,627 3,124 11,757 66, 58 6,230 1950 49,926 9,948 59,874 3,512 14,443 47,829 7,880 1951 54,933 10,976 65,909 4,129 15,559 85,597 9,235 1952 56,448 11,451 67,899 4,705 14,839 87,443 10, 330 1953 57,517 11,915 69,432 4,894 14,566 88,892 10,808 1954 58,808 12,221 71,029 5,331 15,156 91,516 11,635 1955 60,661 12,535 73,196 5,597 16, 064 94,857 12,573 1956 56,588 8,495 65,083 3,356 14,254 82,693 1957 57,117 8,560 65,677 3,474 14,453 83,604 1958 58, 801 9,189 68, 090 3,607 14,379 85,976 1959 56,170 9,930 66,100 3,852 15,309 85,261 1960 1961 1962 1963 67,852 13,607 81,459 4,767 16,826 19,331 N.B. Government M.V. are not included. Source: Traffic Department, Cairo, Table 2, p.20.

TABLE XV VEHICLE TRAFFIC COUNT, SOLIMAN SQUARE AUGUST 22, 1963, 6 TO 7 P.M. Passenger Vehicles Motor Man or Private Bi- Motor Cycle Animal Place and Direction Automobile Occupied Empty cycle Cycle Bus Trolly Train Truck with box Driven From El-Tahrir (inbound) 378 150 120 30 6 6 -- From Tawfick Square (inbound) 408 150 270 42 60o From Basyony Street (inbound) 192 60 66 48 12 -- _ To Basyony Street (out) 162 66 66 66 18 6 - To Mostafa Kamel Square (out) 438 198 138 42 12 6 From Sabry Abu Alam (inbound) 150 42 72 42 12 6 - - To Sabry Abu Alam (out) 222 72 66 36 24 - - - 12 Total 1, 950 738 798 306 144 26 - -- 12 Number of H Place and Direction Total Lanes From El-Tahrir (inbound) 690 4 From Tawfick Square (inbound) 930 4 From Basyony Street (inbound) 378 4 To Basyony Street (out)- 384 4 To Mostafa Kamel Square (out) 834 4 From Sabry Abu Alam (inbound) 324 2 To Sabry Abu Alam (out) 432 2 Total 3,951 24

TABLE XVI VEHICLE TRAFFIC COUNT, RAMSIS SQUARE AUGUST 2, 1963 2 TO 3 P.M. Passenger Vehicles Private Public Freight Vehicles Private Taxi Bi- Motor Motorcycle Place and Direction Automobile Occupied' Empty Cycle Cycle Bus Metro Tram Truck with a box From Ramsis Street (inbound) 1,560 495 120 315 60 105 - - - 4. To Ramsis Street (out) 840 180 120 45 6o 210 -- 45 15 From Ibrahim Square (inbound) 266 120 9 34 9 25 -- 9 To Ibrahim Square (out) 129 34 154 137 26 941. 86 9 From El-Khalig El-Kasid (inbound) 260 310 100 150 6o 100 - - 90 60 From Ghamra (inbound) 800 110 270 80 70 280 - - 70 20 To Ghamra (out) 1,370 290 300 100 50 110 50 -- 100 30 From El-Galaa (inbound) 55 22 66 33 11 66 66 176 -- To El-Galaa (out) 44 22 33 55 - 44 44 209 -- Total 5,324 1,583 1,172 91^.9 3.6 1,034 16o 385 400 179 I Man or Number of Place and Direction Animal Driven Total Lanes From Ramsis Street (inbound) - 2,700 4 To Ramsis Street (out) - 1,515 4 From Ibrahim Square (inbound) -- 472 3 To Ibrahim Square (out) 34 703 3 From El-Khalig El-Kadis (inbound) 330 1,560 2 From Ghamrah (inbound) -- 1,700 4 To Ghamrah (out) - 2,.400 4 From El-Galaa (inbound) - 495 2 To El-Galaa (out) 44 495 2 Total 408 12,1040 28

TABLE XVII VEHICLE TRAFFIC COUNT, TAHRIRE SQUARE AUGUST 22, 1963 2 TO 3 P.M. Passenger Vehicles Private Taxi Freight Vehicles Private Bi- Motor Trolly Motorcycle Place and Direction Automobile Occupied Empty Cycle Cycle Bus Bus Trams Trucks with a box From Kasr El-Einy (inbound) 635 374 361 140 60 174 87 87 40 To Kasr El-Einy (out) 394 307 114 53 33 200 73 - 40 14 From Kasr El-Nile Bridge (inbound) 595 306 187 60 43 94 -42 20 To Kasr El-Nile Bridge (out) 230 119 128 153 34 85 - 9 9 From Ramsis Square (inbound) 375 143 60 23 30 203 68 98 23 T6 Ramsis Square (out) 518 218 75 165 38 248 173 120 8 To Shampilion (out) 105 90 60 -- -- 15 15 To Kasr El-Nile (out) 735 330 210 60 30 15 - -45 15 From El-Boustan Street (inbound) 152 167 46 46 61 - 6 15 6 To El-Boustan Street (out) 106 46 61 15 30 76 - 76 - From Bab El-Lauk (inbound) 460 340 160 200 60 200 - 240 80 40 To Bab El-Lauk (out) 380 180 380 40 60 160 -- 220 40 80 Total 4,745 2,620 1,842 1,045 418 1,516 160 701 713 279 Man or Number of Place and Direction Animal Driven Total Lanes From Kasr El-Einy (inbound) - 2,499 3 To Kasr El-Einy (out) - 1,228 3 From Kasr El-Nile Bridge (inbound) - 1347 3 To Kasr El-Nile Bridge (out) 767 3 From Ramsis Square (inbound) - 1,018 3 To Ramsis Square (out) - 1,23 3 To Shampilion (out) - 375 4 To Kasr El-Nile (out) - 1,440 4 From El-Boustan Street (inbound) - 548 3 To El-Boustan Street (out) 410 3 From Bab El-Lauk (inbound) - 1,780 2 To Bab El-Lauk (out) - 1,540 2

-244APPENDIX B URBANIZATION AND URBAN DISTRIBUTION IN EGYPT TABLE I RANK SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF CITIES AND VILLAGES IN EGYPT RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Cairo 3,348,779 Alexandria 1,516,234 Port Said 245,318 Ismailia 284,115 Suez 203,610 Subtotal: 449.029 284,115 1,516,234 3,348,779 2/ 1/ 1/ 1/ (1) Cities of population from 0 to 1,000 (2) Cities of population from 1,000 to 2,500 (3) Cities of population from 2,500 to 5,000 (4) Cities of population from 5,000 to 10,000 (5) Cities of population from 10,000 to 20,000 (6) Cities of population from 20,000 to 50,000 (7) Cities of population from 50,000 to 100,000 (8) Cities of population from 100,000 to 250,000 (9) Cities of population from 250,000 to 500,000 (10) Cities of population from 500,000 to 1,000,000 (11) Cities of population from 1,000,000 to 2,500,000 (12) Cities of population from 2,500,000 and up. LOWER EGYPT RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Dimiatta 1,956 25,406 42,625 178,651 67,544 71,780 4/0.5 14/6.5 12/11.0 25/46.1 4/17.4 1/18.5 Dakahlia 32,223 217,508 516,989 567,488 280,458 249,025 151,192 55/1.6 125/10.8 143/25.6 83/28.2 22/13.9 8/12.4 1/7.5 Sharkia 36,665 254,890 514,430 575,787 196,571 118,038 124,417 62/2.0 148/14.0 142/28.3 85/31.6 15/10.8 4/6.5 1/6.8 Kalyobia 8,422 101,119 211,648 269,648 296,184 150,991 102.679 11/0.9 59/10.2 59/21.4 43/30.0 11/15.3 4/10.9 2/11.3 Kafr El-Sheikh 8,743 91,546 271,318 286,199 158,108 157,105 13/0.9 52/9.4 76/27.9 41/29.3 12/16.3 5/16.2 El-Gharbia 21,953 186,542 418,627 469,688 167,773 89,042 362,587 32/1.3 102/10.9 114/24.4 70/27.3 13/9.8 3/5.2 2/21.1 El-Menofia 22,476 171,376 378,195 437,594 147,342 136,060 54,910 29/1.7 91/12.7 105/28.0 65/32.5 12/10.9 5/10.1 1/4.1 Bihera 38,505 249,576 451,419 453,419 226,047 138,638 126,600 77/2.3 143/14.8 126/26.8 67/26.9 17/13.4 4/8.3 1/7.5 Subtotal: 170,943 1,297,963 2,805,251 3,265,010 1,394,834 995,520 238,769 764,796 283/ 734/ 777/ 479/ 106/ 33/ 4/ 4/ UPPER EGYPT Giza 5,426 55,915 252,007 344,682 187,855 106,552 136,429 250,534 6/0.4 32/4.2 67/18.8 49/25.7 15/14.0 4/8.0 1/10.2 1/18.7 Beni Sweif 12,839 155,315 296,009 190,252 79,854 46,743 78,829 17/1.5 86/18.0 84/34.4 29/22.1 6/9.3 2/5.5 1/9.2 Fayom 6,753 83,413 186,514 303,474 122,104 31,831 102,064 9/0.8 47/9.9 53/22.3 43/36.3 10/14.7 1/3.8 1/12.2 Menia 16,849 198,226 422,815 540,848 151,465 82,927 147,121 23/1.1 116/12.7 115/27.1 78/34.7 11/9.7 3/5.3 2/9.4 Asyot 13,677 139,288 242,354 392,672 238,050 176,062 127,485 19/1.0 80/10.5 68/18.2 60/29.5 19/18.0 7/13.2 1/9.6 Sohage 547 102,370 395,002 583,088 211,287 224,620 57/6.5 106/25.0 84/36.9 18/13.4 7/14.3 Kena 37,139 255,403 573,843 248,291 129,265 57,417 19/21.9 68/19.6 85/44.1 19/19.1 5/9.9 1/4.4 Aswan 11,636 37,488 70,032 96,851 76,052 95,281 20/3.1 23/9.7 20/18.2 15/25.1 6/19.2 3/24.7 Subtotal: 67,727 809,154 2,120,206 3,025,710 1,312,958 893,272 283,367 427,922 250,534 95/ 460/ 581/ 43/ 104/ 32/ 4/ 4/ 1/ THE COUNTRY Total: 238,670 2,107,117 4,925,457 6,290,720 2,707,792 1,888,792 522,136 1,641,645 534,649 1,516,234 3,348,779 378/ 1,194/ 1,358/ 922/ 210/ 65/ 8/ 10/ 2/ 1/ 1/

TABLE II ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN EACH GOVERNORATE Economic Activity Governorate Total Agriculture Mfg. Services Others Literacy Population Cairo 3,348,779 1.1 23.6 39.2 36.1 53.6 Alexandria 1,516,234 3.0 33.0 21.4 42.6 51.1 Port Said 245,318 6.9 11.5 36.1 45.5 49.7 Ismailia 284,115 46.1 4.9 26.0 23.0 33.6 El-Suez 203,610 11.0 17.4 28.7 42.9 44.5 Red Sea 25,452 2.9 6.6 13.6 76.9 44.4 New Valley 21,586 74.5 3.8 12.1 9.5 27.6 Matrouh 103,453 71.54.3 10.4 13.4 14.8 Sinai 49,769 12.15.1 27.1 55.7 46.3 Dimiatta 387,962 55.7 14.3 16.0 14.0 36.4 El-Dakahlia 2,014,883 70.0 5.3 14.3 10.4 32.3 El-Sharkia 1,819,798 74.0 4.3 11.8 9.9 25.1 El-Kaliahia 988,055 59.3 13.0 15.3 12.4 29.2 Kufr El-Shiekh 973,019 79.5 3.4 9.5 10.6 17.2 El-Gharbia 1,715,21268.o 10.6 12.1 9.3 29.6 El-Menufia 1,347,953 72.0 4.8 14.1 9.1 29.3 El-Behera 1,685,679 76.2 6.3 9.5 18.0 23.3 El-Giza 1,336,418 47.8 11.1 23.6 17.5 31.4 El-Fayum 839,163 73.0 6.o 11.0 10 20.0 Beny Suife 256,120 75.2 3.5 11.3 10.0 22,6 El-Menia 1,560,311 77.0 3.6 6.1 13.3 21.5 Asute 1,329,588 76.4 3.7 10.5 9.4 21.0 Sohag 1,578,858 78.9 3.6 8.2 9.3 16,9 Kena 1,351,358 76.3 5.1 8.4 10.2 16.2 Aswan 385,350 60.7 6.8 13.1 19.4 24.84

TABLE III ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN EACH "BANDER" The Bander Population Agriculture Mfg. Services Others Literacy Labor Force Bauder El-Mansora(l) 37,737 2.3 20.1 47.3 30.3 58.6 25,183 Bauder El-Mansora(2) 53,455 3.4 14.7 52.7 29.2 62.3 14,129 El-Giza(l) 145,332 2.7 14.2 56.3 26.8 58.3 38,886 El-Giza(2) 105,202 1.8 6.o 71.2 21.0 62.8 32,124 Imbaba 136,429 2.1 25.5 41.2 31.2 50.4 32,559 Kism El-Ahram 11,684 9.5 7.1 58.6 24.8 41.4 2,903 El-Zakazik 124,417 4.5 14.6 51.2 29.7 55.0 29,700 Kena 57,417 22.5 9.7 45.o 22.8 42.0 14,446 Asvet(l) 76,035 8.6 21.0 39.4 31.0 44.0 19,924 Asvet(2) 51,450 13.0 6.o 58.3 22.7 6o.4 12,309 Sohag 61,944 10.0 10.2 46.6 33.2 52.1 15,401 Damanhor 126,600 6.4 18.0 41.8 33.8 48.1 32,758 Dimiatta 71,7802.744.2 29.4 23.7 47.6 20,008 Tanta(l) 101,171 2.3 13.5 52.8 31.4 59.3 25,809 Tanta(2) 83,128 3.7 23.3 41.7 31.3 49.4 21,791 El-Mahalle ElKobra* 178,288 6.149.4 23.2 21.3 45.1 45,394 Bani Suef 78,829 10.4 12.7 48.1 28.8 50.0 19,886 Kufr El-Kheikh 38,592 18.0 10.2 43.2 28.6 43.2 10,167 Aswan 48,393 3.2 21.0 33.0 42.8 50.3 13,798 Benha 52,686 12.4 14.5 46.5 26.6 50.2 13,014 Shoubra El-Khima^* 100,607 11.1 57.6 14.5 16.8 35.7 27,393 Shebrin El-Kam 54,910 11.6 16.3 50.0 22.1 51.3 14,398 El-Menia 94,507 6.7 14.6 46.6 32.1 55.3 24,652 Total: 1,950,593 6.3 22.0 44.o 27.7 506,632 * Included in Cairo M.PoA. * Industrial Centers

-247TABLE IV POPULATION DISTRIBUTION OF THE POTENTIAL METROPOLIS AREAS Existing Population %Increase from (1960 Census) Last Census Potential Metropolis Areas City of Cairo 3,348,779 61.3 Alexandria 1,516,234 59.7 Port Said 245,318 49.1 Suez 203,610 89.9 Ismailia 284,115 60.4 Dimiatta 96,714 Sub-Total 5,694,770 About 60o Rest of Cairo M.P. Area Shoubra El-Khima 100,607 El-Giza 250,534 Imbaba 136,429 Kism El-Ahram 11,684 Sub-Total 499,254 Aswan 48,393 Total 6,242,417 Total Urban Population 9,651,097 % of Potential Metropolitan Population to Urban Population 64.7%

TABLE V POPULATION DISTRIBUTION OF OTHER URBAN AREAS Area 1960 Population %Increase from Number of Popula- Class of Population Last Census tion of Banders Cities El-Dakahlia 364,223 46.6 151,192 6 213,031 El-Sharkia 295,365 47.6 124,417 6 118,038 El-Kaliobia 250,510 76.9 153,293 6 and 7 97,217 Kafr El-Sheikh 165,353 43.8 38.592 6 and 4 126,761 El-Gharbia 484,481 46.o 362,587 6 and 5 121,894 El-Menufia 183,660 30.9 54,910 6 and 4 128,750 El-Bihera 307,516 52.3 126.600 6 and 5 180,916 El-Giza 433,620 133.4 398,647 - 34,973 Beny Suife 183,587 31.5 78,829 6 and 5 104,758 El-Fayom 161,843 35.5 102,o64 6 and 5 59,779 El-Minia 268,165 36.0 94,507 7 and 6 173,658 Asyot 289,569 38.9 127,485 6 162,084 Sohag 285,743 31.2 61,944 6 223,799 Kena 184,785 23.3 57,417 6 and 5 127,368 Aswan 97,902 6o.8 48,393 6 and 2 49,509 Total 3,956,322 48% 1,980,877 1,975,445 Substituting Cairo Suburbs and Aswan 547,647 1,433,230/40%

-249APPENDIX C POPULATION AND SOCIAL CHANGE PROJECTION IN CAIRO TABLE I PROJECTION OF POPULATION, ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE MEMBERS, INCOME LEVEL AND TRIP PATTERN, FOR EACH SUBAREA, IN PROJECTION YEARS 1960 1975 1985 Popu- % Income(3). Popu- % Income(3) Popu-Income(3) 1) % (4) %,M~2 (4) Po~u- % M~2 (4) di(1) lation E.A.M2) Leve l K lation A Level K.,.M. )Level K. 1 7,480 43 11A4,4 848 11, 000 45 IA4,4 848 11,000 45. IIA4,4 848 2 3,650 37 IB4,4 927 6,500 40 IB5,5 965 6,000 38 IB5,6 969 3 10,667 27 IV 2,6 570 16,000 29 IV 3,6 608 15,000 28 IV 3,6 608 4 7,678 35 IIB5,3 830 15,000 38 IITA7,4 614 14,000 37 TIIB6,5 569 5 12,539 32 IV 2,4 556 18,500 33 V 2,3 496 18,000 33 IV 2,4 556 6 9,227 35 IV 4,5 640 13,000 39 TV 4,5 640 12,000 38 TV 3,5 604 7 3,079 41 11B4,5 817 6,000 44 IIIB5,6 733 5,000 43 IIIB5,6 733 8 9,720 35 IV 3,4 595 14,000 36 V 4,4 578 14,000 37 IIIB4,5 699 9 14,050 28 V 2,5 513 20,000 29 V 2,4 503 17,500 30 V 1,4 473 10 8,730 28 V 2,5 513 13,500 28 V 2,5 513 11,000 30 V 1,5 483 11 8,000 12 V 2,7 472 12,000 14 V 1,5 483 10,000 15 V 1,6 487 12 11,07.0 27 V 2,7 472 17,000 28 V 1,5 483 15,000 29 V 1,6 487 13 5,610 28 V 1,3 466 7,500 29 V 1,3 466 7,000 30 V 1,3 466 14 13,610 27 V 2,5 513 20,000 28 V 1,3 466 18,000 29 V 1,4 473 15 12,370 29 V 1,4 473 16,500 30 V 1,3 466 15,000 31 V 1,3 466 16 8,700 27 V 2,7 472 12,000 28 V 2,5 513 11,000 29 V 1,6 487 17 6,570 31 IV 3,6 608 10,000 32 V 2,5 513 8,500 33 V 1,6 487 18 13,850 26 IV 2,5 566 20,000 27 V 1,4 473 18,000 28 V 1,5 483 19 9,830 39 V 2,6 517 14,500 40 V 1,5 483 12,000 40 V 1,6 487 20 5,030 26 IV 2,6 570 8,000 26 V 1,4 473 6,000 26 V 1,5 483 21 4,050 27 IIlB3,6 667 6,500 28 11IB2,5 625 5,000 29 IIIB35 663 22 10,340 29 V 1,4 473 14,500 29 V 1,2 458 11,000 29 V 1,3 466 23 11,040 28 IV 2,5 566 17,000 28 V 1,4 473 15,000 28 V 1,5 483 24 11,680 26 V 2,3 496 23,000 26 V 1,2 458 30,000 28 TV 2,3 549 25 8,910 26 IV 2,3 549 15,500 26 V 1,2 458 14,000 26 V 1,3 466 26 20,200 26 V 2,3 496 35,000 26 V 1,2 458 40,000 28 V 2,3 549 27 8,030 28 V 2,3 464 15,000 28 V 1,2 458 16,000 28 V 1,2 458 28 21,040 28 IIB3,3 764 30,000 28 IIIA4,4 744 40,000 30 IB5,6 850 29 8,670 26 V 2,4 503 16,000 26 V 1,3 466 13,000 26 V 1,4 473 30 10o980 26 IV 2,3 464 17,000 26 V 1,3 458 25,000 29 IIB3,4 654 31 6,100 22 IIIB3,3 647 9,000 22 V 2,3 549 8,000 22 V 2,4 503 32 16,150 28 V 13 466 30,000 28 V 1,2 458 40,000 29 IV 2,3 549 33 13,900 28 IIB3,3 647 21,000 28 IV 1,2 511 20,000 28 V 1,3 466 34 12,200 27 IV 2,3 549 19,000 27 V 1,2 458 14,000 27 v 1,3 466 35 8,690 27 V 1,3 466 14,000 27 V 1,2 458 10,000 27 V 1,3 466 36 15,420 24 V 1,4 473 25,-00 24 V 1,2 458 30,000 25 TV 2,4 564 37 2,980 28 IIIB3,7 622 5,000 28 IV 2,5 566 4,000 30 IIIB2,6 629 38 11,520 27 IV 25 566 19,000 27 V 1,4 473 15,000 27 V 1,5 483 39 2,350 33 IIB3,6 667 5,000 32 V 2,4 503 3,500 32 V 1,5 483 40 10,260 30 "IB3,4 654 16,000 30 IV 2,2 541 14,000 30 IV 1,3 519 41 5,500 28 IV 3,5 519 10,000 28 IV 1,3 519 8,000 28 IV 1,5 536 42 9,670 26 IIA33 805 15,000 26 ITB2i2 718 12,000 26 IB3,3 764 43 11, 750 27 ITB4,3 800 17,000 27 IIA3, 2 693 15,000 27 IIIA2, 4 670 44 9,170 29 IV 2,7 525 16,000 29 V 1,5 483 11,000 29 V 2,6 517 45 9,630 27 IV 2,4 556 20,000 27 IV 1,3 519 17,000 27 IV 1,4 526 46 3,210 28 V 2,4 503 6,000 28 v 2,3 496 13,500 28 V 1,3 466 47 12,400 27 V 2,5 513 15000o 27 v 2,4 503 15,000 27 V 2,4 503 48 7,780 25 V 2,3 496 13,000 25 V 1,2 458 10,000 25 V 1,2 458 49 8,22 26 2 513V 0 26 2 526 V 1,4 473 12,000 26 V 1,5 483 50 10.570 28 V 2,6 517 17,000 28 V 1,4 473 14,000 28 V 1,5 483

-250TABLE I (CONT'D) 1960 1975 1985 Popu- % Income Popu- % Income Popu- % Income di lation E.A.M. Level Ki lation E.A.M. Level Ki lation E.A.M. Level Ki 51 10,800 26 IV 2,7 525 20,000 26 V 1,5 483 17,000 26 V 1,5 483 52 3,540 26 V 1,4 473 5,000 26 V 1,2 458 4,000 26 V 1,2 458 53 11,840 26 IIB3,3 647 15,000 26 IV 2,2 541 15,000 26 IV 2,2 541 54 21,900 28 IIIB3,3 647 45,000 28 IIIA, 5 783 75,000 30 IIB5,6 850 55 22,080 27 IIB4,3 800 55,000 29 IIB6,5 687 85,000 30 IIA6,5 727 56 32,430 26 IV 3,3 588 60,000 28 IIIB4,3 683 70,000 29 IIIA5,4 773 57 33,970 28 IIIA3,2 693 50,000 29 IIIA4,3 737 70,000 31 IIB5,4 837 58 20,440 26 IIB4,3 800 25,000 28 IIB4,3 800 50,000 33 IB5,4 956 59 4,180 25 IV 3,3 588 7,000 27 IIIB4,3 683 20,000 31 IIB6,4 677 60 77,800 26 IIIB3,3 647 120,000 27 IIIB5,4 719 100,000 28 IIIB4,4 690 61 46,760 26 IV 3,3 588 70,000 28 IIIB5,4 719 60,000 29 IIIB4,4 690 62 50,040 28 IV 2,4 556 75,000 30 III 4,4 690 111,000 34 IIIB5,4 719 63 20,790 28 IIA4,2 833 25,000 30 IIA4,3 841 55,000 32 IIA6,4 718 64 56,640 28 IIIA4, 4 744 88,000 35 IIB5,4 837 85,000 30 IIB5,5 846 65 26,950 33 V 2,3 496 40,000 35 IIIB4,4 690 50,000 36 IIA5,5 783 66 17,440 33 I 4,2 530 25,000 27 IIA3,2 796 23,000 34 IIB3,2 756 67 24,370 26 IIIB4,3 683 35,000 28 IV 3,3 588 32,000 27 IV 2,3 549 68 17,870 28 IIIB4,3 683 30,000 27 IV 3,3 588 25,000 28 IV 2,3 549 69 11,520 28 IIIB4,3 683 20,000 30 IV 3,3 588 16,000 27 IV 2,3 549 70 16,960 29 IIIA4, 3 737 30,000 30 IIIB3,3 647 25,000 29 IIIB2,3 608 71 19,680 27 IIIB3,3 647 32,000 30 IIIA4,4 744 28,000 29 IIIB4,3 683 72 14,710 27 IIIB4,3 683 22,000 28 IIIA5,4 773 17,000 29 IIIA4,4 744 73 17,250 27 IIIA3,4 708 33,000 33 IIB4,5 817 35,000 32 IIB4,5 817 74 17,090 27 IV 2,3 549 26,000 31 V 1,3 466 24,000 27 V 1,3 -466 75 13,540 31 IB4,2 911 20,000 28 IIA5,3 870 18,000 33 IIA5,3 870 76 19,870 28 IIB4,3 800 32,000 31 IIIA5,4 773 29,000 30 IIIA5,4 773 77 37,660 26 IV 2,4 556 55,000 28 IIIB4,5 699 45,000 27 IIIB5,5 729 78 13,140 29 IV 3,3 588 20,000 32 IV 3,3 588 17,000 31 V 2,3 496 79 12,570 28 V 2,3 496 20,000 31 V 1,2 458 16,000 30 V 1,3 466 80 6,000 28 IIB4,3 800 11,000 30 IIIA4,3 737 8,000 29 IIIB3,4 653 81 12,460 44 IIIB2,1 590 21,000 46 IIIB1,1 560 17,000 45 IV 1,1 502 82 22,490 29 IIIB4,4 808 37,000 30 IIIA5,4 773 35,000 30 IIIB5,4 719 83 17,270 30 IIIA4,3 737 28,000 33 IIIB5,4 719 25,000 32 IIIB5,4 719 84 21,040 30 IIB5,4 837 35,000 33 IIIA6,5 623 30,000 31 IIIBS,5 729 85 20,350 30 IIB4,3 800 35,000 33 IIIA5,5 783 30,000 32 IIIB4,5 699 86 10,840 27 IIIA3,2 693 16,000 29 IIB4,3 800 30,000 32 IB5,4 956 87 22,570 25 IIIB3.2 638 37,000 28 IIIA4,3 737 50,000 30 IIA5,4 877 88 7,000 22 V 3,2 526 12,000 25 IV 3,3 588 20,000 27 IIIA4,3 737 89 7,740 25 IV 3,3 588 13,000 27 IIIB4,3 683 30,000 30 IIB5,4 837 90 11,780 25 IIIB3,2 638 20,000 27 IIIA4,3 737 30,000 31 IIA5,4 877 91 4,010 26 IIIB2,3 608 7,000 27 IIA2,3 662 20,000 30 IIA4, 4 848 92 8,580 26 IIIA4,3 729 15,000 29 IIB5,3 830 35,000 34 IB6,4 796 93 8,320 28 V 1,2 458 13,000 30 IV 2,2 541 30,000 33 IIIA4,3 737 94 23,860 26 V 2,4 503 38,000 28 IV 3,4 595 70,000 32 IIIA4,5 753 95 52,500 26 V 1,3 466 70,000 28 IV D2,4 556 100,000 32 IIA3,4 812 96 3,630 24 V 1,2 458 6,000 25 IV 2,3 549 25,000 30 IIIA3,4 708 97 6,600 24 IV 3,2 579 12,000 27 IIIA3,3 701 30,000 32 IIA3,4 812 98 1,960 26 V 1,2 458 4,000 27 IV 2,3 549 15,000 32 IIB3,4 771 99 2,900 24 V 1,2 458 5,000 27 IV 2,3 549 15,000 32 IIB3,4 771 100 14,050 26 V 1,4 473 22,000 28 IV 2,4 556 65,000 32 IIIA2,5 679 101 12,530 20 V 2,3 496 25,000 23 IV 3,5 604 35,000 27 IIIB3,5 663 102 8,660 26 IIIB3,2 638 15,000 29 IIIA4.3 737 25,000 33 IB4,4 927 103 4,960 26 V 1,1 448 8,000 28 IIIg2,2 600 40,000 34 IB3,3 883 104 2,260 26 V 1,2 458 5,000 28 IV 2,2 541 10,000 30 IIIB2,3 608 105 6,370 27 V 1,2 458 10,000 28 IV 2,3 549 15,000 30 IIIB2,4 615 106 3,680 5,000 5,000 107 5,250 7,000 10,000 108 3,060 30 IV 2,3 549 5,000 31 IV 2,3 549 5,000 33 IIIB3,3 647 109 10,720 30 IA3,1 1006 22,000 37 IA3,2 1016 30,000 37 IA3,2 1016 110 10,720 35 IV 3,4 595 6,000 32 V 3,3 534 4,500 32 V 2,4 503 111 13,120 29 IV 2,5 566 18,000 30 V 2,4 503 17,000 29 V 2,4 503 112 4,580 30 IV 4,6 644 6,000 30 v 3,5 551 6,000 30 v 3,5 551

-251TABLE I (CONT'D) 1975 1958 Popu- Income Popu- % Income Popu- % Income di lation E.A.M. Level Ki lation E.A.M. Level Ki lation E.A.M. Level Ki 113 4,220 32 IV 3,5 604 7,000 32 V 2,4 503 5,500 32 V 1,5 483 114 12,790 28 IV 3,6 608 19,000 28 V 2,5 513 17,000 27 v 1,6 487 115 43,270 30 IIIB3,3 647 70,000 32 IIIA5,4 773 80,000 33 IIIA5,5 783 116 17,070 25 IIIB3,3 647 27,000 27 IIIA5,4 773 32,000 29 IIIA5,5 783 117 19,720 27 IV 2,4 556 32,000 29 IIIB4,5 699 40,000 31 IIIA5,6 787 118 11,370 19 V 2,3 496 15,000 23 IIIB4,5 690 25,000 26 IIIA4,5 754 119 9,840 25 IB3,3 883 15,000 28 IB4,4 927 15,000 30 IB4,4 927 120 13,290 27 IIIB33 647 20,000 29 IIIA5,4 773 20,000 29 IIIA5.,4 773 121 3,320 32 V 2,2 488 6,000 34 IV 4,2 615 15,000 37 IIA6,4 718 122 14,950 27 IIB4,2 792 22,000 29 IIB4,3 800 40,000 32 IIB5,4 837 123 26,100 26 IIIB3,3 647 35,000 29 IIIA4,3 737 45,000 32 IIB5,4 837 124 125 22,810 26 V 2,3 496 31,000 28 IV 4,4 631 35,000 29 IIIA5,4 773 126 3,850 28 V 2,4 503 6,000 29 V 1,3 466 8,000 30 IV 2,3 549 127 9,350 26 IIB3,3 764 15,000 28 IIB3,3 764 30,000 32 IIA5,4 877 128 24,910 28 IIIA3,3 701 40,000 30 IIIA4,4 744 45,000 32 IIB5,4 837 129 49,650 28 IV 2,3 549 70,000 31 IIIA4,3 737 60,000 30 IIIA4,4 744 130 10,110 29 IIA4,2 833 16,000 31 IB5,3 949 20,000 32 IB6,4 796 131 19,830 25 IIIB4,2 674 30,000 28 IIIA5,3 766 40,000 30 IIB6,4 677 132 6,460 29 V 2,4 503 7,500 29 V 1,4 473 6,000 29 V 1,4 473 133 6,090go 31 V 2,5 513 7,500 31 V 2,4 503 6,000 31 v 1,4 473 134 3,230 29 IIIA4,5 754 3,500 29 IIIB4,5 699 3,000 29 IV 3,5 604 135 12,010 28 V 2,4 503 16,000 28 V 2,3 496 14,000 28 V 1,4 473 136 13,240 27 IV 2,4 556 16,000 27 IV 2,3 549 14,000 27 v 1,4 473 137 8,610 29 V 1,4 473 10,500 29 V 1,3 466 10,000 29 V 1,3 466 138 16,000 27 IV 3,4 595 22,000 27 IV 2,3 549 20,000 27 IV 2,4 556 139 9,040 28 IIIA3,4 708 15,000 29 IIIB4,4 696 14,000 29 IIIB3,4 654 140 11,090 27 IIIA3,4 708 18,000 29 IIIB2,3 608 17,000 29 IIIB2,3 608 141 17,670 29 V 2,4 503 21,000 29 V 2,3 496 20,000 29 v 1,4 473 142 11,900 27 V 2,5 512 14,000 27 V 2,4 503 14,000 27 V 2,4 503 143 9,930 29 IIIB4,4 690 14,000 30 IV 3,4 595 13,000 29 IV 3,4 595 144 8,250 28 v 1,4 473 10,000 28 V 1,3 466 10,000 28 V 1,3 466 145 5,890 38 V 1,5 483 7,500 38 V 1,4 473 7,000 38 v 1,4 473 146 4,690 29 V 1,5 483 6,000 29 v 1,4 473 6,000 29 v 1,4 473 147 8,530 26 V 2,4 503 11,000 26 V 1,4 473 11,000 26 V 1,4 473 148 7,490 42 IV 2,3 549 11,000 42 IV 2,3 549 15,000 42 IIIA3,3 701 149 8,030 27 IV 2,4 556 12,000 27 V 1,3 466 25,000 27 IIIA3,3 701 150 12,160 30 V 1,7 442 16,000 31 v 1,6 487 40,000 34 IIB4,4 808 151 7,630 26 V 2,3 496 12,000 27 V 1,2 458 25,000 32 IIB3,4 654 152 10,500 26 V 1,4 473 13,000 26 v 1,4 473 10,000 26 V 1,3 466 153 3,210 27 IV 2,5 566 5,000 27 IV 1,4 526 25,000 30 IIA4,5 857 154 11,120 26 V 2,5 513 14,500 26 V 1,4 473 20,000 28 IV 3,5 604 155 7,720 26 V 2,4 503 10,000 26 V 1,3 466 10,000 26 V 1,3 466 156 21,430 30 V 2,4 503 28,000 30 v 1,3 466 40,000 33 IIB4,5 817 157 5,850 28 V 1,4 473 7,000 29 V 1,5 483 7,000 29 V 1,3 466 158 28,750 28 V 1,6 487 50,000 29 IV 2,3 549 40,000 28 V 1,5 483 159 9,140 27 IIIB3,4 654 14,000 27 V 1,3 466 13,000 27 V 2,3 496 160 9,740 27 v 1,4 473 15,000 28 V 1,3 466 15,000 28 V 1,3 466 161 14,500 26 IV 2,4 556 20,000 27 V 1,3 466 23,000 27 V 1,3 466 162 9,390 26 V 2,4 503 12,000 26 V 1,3 466 12,000 26 V 1,3 466 163 6,900 30 V 2,4 503 10,000 30 V 1,3 466 25,000 33 IIIB4,5 817 164 15,530 26 IV 3,4 595 20,000 27 V 2,3 496 45,000 30 IIA4,5 857 165 10,070 25 V 1,4 473 15,000 30 V 1,3 466 35,000 33 IIA4,5 857 166 2,890 25 IV 1,7 495 5,000 25 V 1,5 483 25,000 32 IB4,5 936 167 6,510 25 V 1,2 458 15,000 26 V 1,2 458 30,000 30 IIIB3,4 654 168 10,560 25 IV 2,2 541 20,000 26 IV 1,2 511 30,000 30 IIIA3,4 708 169 20,520 27 V 1,1 448 30,000 28 V 1,1 448 70,000 32 IIB3,3 764 170 9,500 26 IV 2,2 541 15,000 27 IV 1,2 511 75,000 33 IIB3,3 764 171 12,970 28 V 1,3 466 25,000 28 IV 1,3 519 50,000 30 IIA3,4 812 172 6,610 28 V 1,1 448 15,000 28 V 1,1 448 30,000 33 IIB3,3 764 173 12,200 23 IIB3,2 756 25,000 26 IIB3,2 756 75,000 34 IB4,4 926 174 15,530 26 IIA4,2 833 30,000 36 IIA4,2 833 75,000 41 IB4,4 926 175 27,560 26 IV 2,5 566 40,000 29 V 1,3 466 40,000 28 V 1,3 466 176 31,380 28 IB4,3 919 50,000 31 IIA4,3 841 50,000 32 IIA4,3 841 177 34,600 27 IIIA3,3 701 55,000 30 IIIB4,4 690 55,000 30 IIIB4,4 690 178 70,940 26 V 2,5 513 100,000 29 IIIB5,5 729 100,000 29 IIIB5,5 729 179 58,900 27 IIIB3,4 654 95,000 29 IIIB4,5 699 95,000 29 IIIB4,5 699 180 41,760 28 IIIA4,3 737 60,000 31 IIIA5,4 773 60,000 31 IIIA5,4 773 181 36,070 27 IIIA4,3 737 50,000 29 IIIB5,4 719 45,000 29 IIB5, 4 719 182 28,110 27 V 1,4 473 35,000 29 V 1,3 466 33,000 29 V 1,3 466 183 47,520 26 V 3,3 534 61,000 28 V 2,3 496 60,000 28 V 2,3 496

-252TABLE I (CONT'D) 1960 1975 1985 pu Income Popu- % Income Popu- % Income di lation E.A.M. Level Ki lation E.M. Level Ki tion E.A.M. Level Ki 184 19,550 29 IIIA4,4 744 26,000 30 IIIB5,5 729 24,000 30 IIIB5,5 729 185 51,490 28 V 1,3 466 64,000 29 V 1,2 458 64,000oo 29 V 1,2 458 186 58,030 28 IIIB3,4 654 85,000 29 IV 3,5 604 80,000 29 IV 3,5 604 187 11,570 30 IB5,3 949 15,000 32 IB5,3 949 14,000 32 IB5,3 949 188 43,680 27 V 2,4 503 54,000 28 v 1,4 473 50,000 28 v 1,4 473 189 12,190 30 IIIB3,3 647 19,000 31 IV 4,4 631 20,000 31 IV 4,4 631 190go 10,940 31 IIIB5,3 712 16,000 31 IV 5,4 660 15,000 31 V 4,4 578 191 3,140 39 IB4,3 919 6,000 40 IB5,4 956 25,000 40 IB5,4 956 192 14,400 36 IIIA3,3 701 23,000 37 IIIB4,4 690 45,000 38 IIB5,4 837 193 15,350 28 IV 3,3 588 24,000 29 V 2,3 496 20,000 29 V 2,3 496 194 9,560 33 IIIA4,3 737 15,000 34 IIIB5,4 719 13,000 35 IIIB5,4 719 195 7,580 42 IIA4,3 841 15,000 43 IIB5,4 837 35,000 45 IB5,4 956 196 9,700 28 IV 3,3 588 14,000 29 V 3,3 534 12,000 29 V 3,3 534 197 12,120 29 IIIA3,4 708 18,000 30 IIIB4,4 690 15,000 30 IV 4,4 631 198 3,800 45 IB4,3 919 6,000 45 IIA5,4 877 60,000 46 IA5,4 1loo 199 11,640 44 IB3,2 875 15,000 45 IB3,2 875 15,000 46 IB3,2 875 200 5,500 47 IB2,2 837 8,000 45 IB2,2 837 8,000 49 IB2,2 837 201 9,860 43 IA2,1 968 15,000 44 IB2,2 968 15,000 45 IA2,1 968 202 1,900 52 IA2,2 978 3,000 53 IA2,1 978 3,000 54 IA2,2 978 203 10,400 37 IIIA3,3 737 13,000 38 IA2,2 988 13,000 38 IIIB4,4 690 204 37,210 32 IIA4,3 841 80,000 35 IIIB4,4 690 120,000 37 IB5,4 956 205 32,140 34 IB4,2 911 90,000 36 IB5,4 949 130,000 38 IA5,3 1090 206 16,030 35 IB3,2 875 45,000 36 IB5,3 913 75,000 37 IA4,3 1060 207 19,910 35 IB3,3 883 45,000 36 IB4,3 956 75,000 37 IA5,4 1097 208 6,860 43 IIA4,1 823 15,000 44 IB5,4 949 25,000 45 IB5,3 949 209 12,630 36 I3,2 875 25,000 38 IB5,3 919 4,ooo 40 IA4,3 1060 210 58,510 25 V 2,4 503 75,000 28 IV 4,4 631 90,000 29 IIIB5,4 719 211 7,900 28 V 1,4 473 11,000 28 V 1,3 466 15,000 29 V 1,3 466 212 26,140 27 V 2,4 503 34,000 28 V 2,4 503 45,000 29 IV 3,4 595 213 14,060 26 IV 2,4 556 22,000 28 IIIB3,4 654 30,000 29 IIIA4,4 744 214 1,440 30 V 2,5 513 20,000 31 V 2,3 496 30,000 31 V 1,3 466 215 12,530 33 IA3,2 1016 22,000 34 IA4,3 1060 35,000 35 IA4,3 1060 216 14,290 26 IIIB3,3 647 23,000 28 IIIB4,4 690 35,000 31 IIB5,4 837 217 18,210 29 IIIA3,4 708 29,000 29 IIIB4,5 699 45,000 31 IIA5,5 887 218 15,640 27 V 2,4 503 23,000 28 IV 3,4 595 35,000 30 IIIB4,4 690 219 22,190 33 IA3,2 1016 34,000 34 IA3,2 1016 45,000 35 IA3,2 1016 220 21,340 29 IIA3,3 805 37,000 30 IIB4,3 800 45,000 32 IA4,3 1060 221 59,080 30 ITA3,2 796 110,000 33 IB4,3 919 150,000 35 IA4,3 1060 222 19,970 26 IV 2,2 541 25,000 29 IV 2,2 541 40,000 30 IIIB4,2 674 223 17,130 25 IIIA3,3 701 25,000 27 IIIA3,3 701 40,000 30 IIB4,4 806 224 49,150 26 IV 2,4 556 60,000 28 IIIB4,4 690 60,000 29 IV 4,4 631 225 11,800 33 IIA4,2 832 30,000 35 IIB4,3 800 45,000 36 IA5,3 1090 226 70,820 30 IIB3,3 764 130,000 33 IIA5,4 877 150,000 35 IB5,4 956 227 22,580 34 IB2,3 845 40,000 35 IA3,4 1031 55,000 36 IA3,4 1031 228 17,550 23 IIB5,2 822 28,000 26 IIB5,3 830 30,000 28 IIA5,3 870 229 8,080 26 V 2,3 496 13,000 26 V 1,3 466 15,000 26 V 1,3 466 230 19,880 25 V 2,3 496 34,000 27 V 1,3'466 35,000 27 V 1,3 466 231 8,000 26 IV 3,3 588 15,000 28 IIIB4,3 683 15,000 29 IIIB4,3 683 232 13,520 28 V 2,3 496 70,000 32 IB4,3 919 75,000 34 IA4,3 1060 233 5,010 29 V 1,3 466 6,000 29 V 1,3 466 10,000 29 V 1,2 458 234 22,770 25 V 2,4 503 31,000 27 IIIB4,4 690 35,000 28 IIIA4,4 744 235 2,070 25 V 2,3 496 3,000 25 V 2,3 496 5,000 25 V 1,3 466 236 11,470 22 IV 2,4 556 20,000 25 IIIA4,4 744 20,000 27 IIIA4,4 848 237 28,420 25 IIIB3,3 647 60,000 28 IIA4,4 848 70,000 30 I35,4 956 238 1,010 28 IIA2,1 749 2,500 30 IB2,1 827 4,000 31 IA2,1 968 239 10,670 25 V 2,3 496 14,500 27 IIIB2,4 615 16,000 27 IIIB3,4 654 240 59,390 28 V 1,3 466 86,000 30 IIIA3,4 708 100,000 31 IIIA3,4 708 241 4,810 28 V 1,2 458 8,000oo 30 IIIB2,3 608 15,000 31 IIIA2,4 670 242 20,500 31 V 1,2 425 32,000 31 V 1,2 458 35,000 31 V 1,2 458 243 11,200 28 V 2,2 488 17,000 28 V 1,2 458 20,000 28 V 1,2 458 244 4,700 30 V 1,1 448 7,000 30 V 1,1 448 10,000 30 V 1,1 448 (1) di is the subarea number (2) % E.A.M.: percent economically active members to total population (3) Income level as has been indicated in Chapters III and IV (4) Ki: is the number of trips per year for each economically active member in the i-th subarea.

-253APPENDIX D PROJECTED TRAFFIC VOLUME TABLE I COORDINATES OF THE CENTER OF GRAVITY OF EACH SUBDIVISION Subdivision x y Number di 1 92 235 37 107 229 75 90 220 113 98 227 2 94 239 38 108 226 76 100 217 114 101 230 3 91 240 39 105 230 77 92 207 115 119 268 4 98 243 40 103 223 78 99 221 116 123 162 5 97 238 41 106 224 79 100 208 117 115 260 6 93 243 4~ 104 221 80 114 246 118 140 248 7 98 235 43' 101 223 81 115 244 119 125 247 8 96 239 44 107 227 82 109 245 120 124 252 9 113 239 45 103 225 83 117 239 121 119 274 10 112 236 46 118 222 84 103 246 122 122 251 11 106 234 47 109 223 85 112 249 123 122 242 12 113 229 48 107 219 86 153 291 124 - - 13 185 232 49 102 227 87 155 298 125 121 255 14 106 236 50 106 225 88 129 296 126 120 249 15 115 235 51 104 229 89 157 315 127 116 248 16 113 242 52 108 223 90 158 307 128 116 252 17 110 230 53 106 220 91 147 306 129 126 270 18 117 234 54 134 275 92 128 278 130 132 259 19 105 232 55 145 285 93 135 291 131 128 266 20 109 234 56 139 288 94 192 232 132 108 240 21 109 231 57 138 273 95 138 304 133 100 237 22 119 227 58 90 273 96 134 315 134 103 234 23 112 233 59 111 283 97 112 160 135 102 241 24 105 198 60 98 265 98 117 158 136 110 242 25 104 210 61 97 261 99 108 159 137 100 234 26 111'184 62 86 268 100 107 171 138 105 242 27 112 216 63 91 262 101 127 135 139 110 243 28 104 217 64 94 268 102 128 144 140 107 241 29 102 212 65 97 276 103 97 168 141 100 240 30 103 207 66 88 219 104 132 117 142 107 238 31 102 214 67 95 210 105 127 128 143 103 142 32 108 203 68 96 219 106 - 144 104 238 33 106 217 69 94 217 107 104 155 145 101 235 34 104 213 70 92 221 108 - - 146 101 233 35 102 209' 71 90 215 109 123 152 147 102 237 36 112 207 72 93 214 110 97 230 148 82 237 73 87 211 111 99 228 149 83 239 74 98 211 112 98 232 150 88 240

-254TABLE I (CONT'D) 151 82 250 189 95 226 227 70 232 152 84 244 190 93 223 228 64 222 153 81 241 i191 89 224 229 69 272 154 81 250 192 230 66 268 155 83 238 193 98 223 231 72 252 156 84 235 194 92 225 232 56 246 157 85 242 195 94 230!233 64 252 158 86 239 i 196 90 230 234 69 251 159 85 238 197 98 226 235 73 257 160 87 237 198 85 228 236 66 246 161 86 245 199 74 245 237 69 253 162 84 242 200 78 232!238 8 167 163 85 243 201 85 219 239 11 152 164 80 245 202 87 224 240 103 295 165 85 234 203 87 232 241 85 301 166 82 239 204 157 280 242 92 307 167 134 105 205 174 278 243 114 319 168 139 96 206 164 273 244 130 318 169 145 55 207 150 276 170 158 36 208 172 291 171 172 42 209 158 262 172 150 18 210 93 200 173 159 54 211 95 179 174 168 52 212 86 201 175 86 251 213 87 182 176 84 259 214 94 197 177 91 247 215 80 197 178 83 255 216 84 191 179 90 255 217 84 202 180 90 254 218 81 216 181 97 256 219 96 186 182 111 264 220 79 220 183 101 248 221 53 190 184 95 247 222 71 194 185 108 272 223 71 191 186 97 250 224 70 188 187 109 256 225 66 236 188 104 257 226 70 221

-255TABLE II COORDINATES; PROVIDED CAPACITY (1960); (1960, 1975, 1985) POPULATION TRAVEL POTENTIAL AT RANDOMLY CHOOSEN POINTS ON THE NETWORK Potential Potential Point x y SVi(1) 1960 1975 1985 Point x y / 19C0 1975 1985 1 12 157 64 2,495 42,594 84,211 73 118 147 326 71,516 135,202 231,357 2 7 170 379 48,855 80,92 178,562 74 120 152 326 78,382 149,707 257,467 3 12 168 1,376 24,951 42,594 84,211 75 119 153 296 74,613- 141,743 243,138 4 33 178 1,376 17,496 31,315 51,698 76 114 155 296 62,595 116,612 197,813 5 51 187 1,759 20,834 37,543 61,019 77 110 149 1,069 56,277 103,864 174,847 6 60 170 465 23,424 42,268 68,827 78 114 150 326 62,595 116,612 197,813 7 68 187 465 26,249 47,410 77,464 79 104 154 544 49,029 89,707 149,691 8 67 193 9,096 25,866 46,714 76,295 80 98 166 - 43,377 78,966 131,032 9 68 197 1,616 26,249 47,410 77,469 81 90 161 525 37,412 67,845 112,056 10 69 198 10,769 26,640 48,123 78,671 82 88 179 543 36,125 65,471 108,030 11 74 198 6,586 28,738 51,943 85,130 83 113 184 368 60,853 113,057 191,397 12 72 202 3,241 27,870 50,361 82,454 84 82 192 - 32,647 59,082 97,213 13 69 203 6,739 26,640 48,123 78,671 85 86 193 2,078 34,906 63,226 104,228 14 70 210 1,125 27,041 48,852 79,903 86 85 199 1,331 34,320 62,149 102,405 15 69 215 5,006 26,641 48,123 78,671 87 84 204 6,299 33,748 61,100 100,629 16 63 215 1,290 24,422 44,085 71,871 88 87 202 1,624 35,508 64,333 106,103 17 73 217 3,241 28,299 51,143 83,776 89 90 200 2,608 37,412 67,845 112,056 18 71 220 5,134 27,450 49,598 81,163 90 96 201 1,200 41,744 75,902 125,776 19 68 221 2,381 26,249 47,410 77,469 91 107 198 1,968 52,401 96,236 161,222 20 64 218 1,279 24,771 44,720 72,937 92 108 201 368 53,630 98,639 165,499 21 60 217 1,001 23,424 42,268 68,827 93 105 205 2,817 50,105 91,780 153,338 22 64 222 165 24,771 44,720 72,937 94 102 203 1,166 47,002 85,829 142,908 23 56 222 836 22,200 40,038 65,116 95 99 207 - 44,236 80,583 133,817 24 73 225 3,241 28,299 51,143 83,776 96 96 208 323 41,744 75,902 125,776 25 70 226 941 27,041 4,882 79,903 97 92 205 1,174 38,772 70,364 116,333 26 64 232 1,605 24,771 44,720 72,937 98 89 206 1,754 36,760 66,641 110,013 27 58 236 1,605 22,797 41,126 66,923 99 86 205 409 34,906 63,226 104,228 28 52 235 836 21,093 38,017 61,791 100 80 196 - 31,599 57,164 93,967 29 62 340 990 24,081 43,466 70,831 101 80 200 5,040 31,599 57,164 93,967 30 68 342 383 26,249 47,410 77,469 102 81 199 5,228 32,117 58,111 95,570 31 66 343 180 25,493 46,034 75,149 103 80 206 5,o40 31,599 57,164 93,967 32 57 343 615 22,494 40,575 66,008 104 81 211 6,165 32,117 58,111 95,570 33 59 249 23,106 41,690 67,803 105 83 211 5,756 33,191 60,078 98,899 34 65 247 2,269 25,127 45,370 74,030 106 86 210 1,477 34,906 63,226 104,228 35 69 248 2,976 26,640 48,122 78,671 107 88 211 383 36,125 65,471 108,030 36 73 253 2,797 28,299 51,143 83,776 108 87 213 754 35,508 64,333 106,103 37 63 256 24,422 44,084 1,871 109 89 212 1,279 36,760 66,641 110,013 38 75 255 180 29,187 52,762 860 515 110 87 215 - 35,508 64,333 106,103 39 73 257 2,565 28,299 51,143 83,776 111 92 215 2,678 38,772 70,364 116,333 40 69 258 2,565 26,640 48,123 78,671 112 91 216 - 38,082 69,086 114,161 41 74 261 2,565 28,738 51,943 85,130 113 92 218 6,373 38,772 70,364 116,333 42 65 264 2,565 25,127 45,370 74,030 114 90 217 1,774 37,412 67,845 112,056 43 77 265 180 30,118 54,459 89,389 115 89 217 7,218 36,760 66,641 110,013 44 73 277 180 28,299 51,143 83,776 116 87 217 5,440 35,508 64,333 106,103 45 144 24 308 87,462 164,759 265,512 117 93 214 12,586 39,481 71,682 118,575 46 148 34 154 82,148 152,013 238,202 118 96 217 - 41,744 75,902 125,776 47 157 36 154 75,242 136,075 204,246 119 105 212 3,904 50,105 91,780 153,338 48 154 41 600 77,045 140,126 212,874 120 108 210 143 53,630 98,639 165,499 49 164 41 371 72,020 129,249 189,925 121 114 214 143 62,595 116,612 197,813 50 169 40 154 70,123 125,605 182,755 122 118 212 143 71,516 135,202 231,357 51 172 41 154 69,041 123,665 179,224 123 133 198 143 128,049 269,708 469,526 52 163 43 72,426 130,070 191,607 124 108 219 428 53,630 98,639 165,499 53 170 47 69,760 124,944 181,524 125 103 220 4,077 47,995 87,726 146,219 54 173 48 154 68,684 123,045 178,147 126 107 225 428 52,401 96,236 161,222 55 170 48 446 69,760 124,944 181,524 127 102 226 428 47,002 85,829 142,908 56 170 50 600 69,760 124,944 181,524 128 100 224 4,981 45,125 82,263 136,718 57 164 50 383 72,020 129,249 189,925 129 96 226 1,766 41,744 75,902 125,776 58 140 50 446 95,469 184,550 307,792 130 94 225 5,113 40,213 73,043 120,893 59 135 73 446 113,395 231,596 399,921 131 93 227 7,323 39,481 71,682 118,575 60 132 92 446 137,463 292,400 510,646 132 92 227 - 38,772 70,364 116,333 61 131 106 446 148,256 314,950 551,478 133 88 226 13,129 36,125 65,471 108,030 62 130 116 218 166,319 347,495 610,336 134 92 226 - 38,772 70,364 116,333 63 125 130 218 156,549 306,979 539,647 135 92 223 11,502 38,772 70,364 116,333 64 124 130 229 117,579 229,993 401,425 136 87 218 11,167 35,508 64,333 106,103 65 120 136 218 78,382 149,707 257,467 137 88 223 6,488 35,508 64,333 106,103 66 - - 138 86 228 12,667 34,906 63,226 103,228 67 -139 85 230 1,624 34,320 62,149 102,405 68 - - 140 86 231 4,403 34,906 63,226 103,228 69 - - 141 82 235 - 32,647 59,082 97,213 70 114 140 446 62,595 116,612 197,813 142 85 232 11,681 34,320 62,149 102,405 71 107 147 525 52,401 96,236 161,222 143 69 353 1,885 26,640 48,122 78,671 72 113 147 446 60,853 113,057 191,396 144 86 236 7,250 34,906 63,226 104,228 145 84 238 795 33,748 61,100 100,629 146 82 241 - 32,117 58,111 95,570 147 81 242 - 31,599 57,164 93,967 148 80 242 3,605 31,093 56,241 92,404 (1) Provided capacity of all lines passing point i on the network seats/working hour (2) Population travel potential to each point on the network assuming that Wi =1 Pi = Z wi'KjPj 1J

-256TABLE II (CONT'D) Potential Potential Point x Y Yi 1960 1975 1985 Point x y i 1960 1975 1985 149 75 240 7,228 29,187 52,762 86,515 225 123 294 431 99,883 194,325 337,486 150 81 246 - 32,117 58,111 95,570 226 127 306 431 736,456 1,426,762 2,554,812 151 84 246 - 33,748 61,100 100,629 227 128 270 532 458,423 897,844 1,601,997 152 88 244 3,481 36,125 65,471 108,030 228 123 266 2,280 99,883 194,325 337,486 153 89 246 405 36,760 66,641 110,013 229 128 266 -- 458,423 897,844 1,601,997 154 87 250 791 35,508 64,333 106,103 230 130 265 2,952 166,319 347,495 610,336 155 86 253 1,631 34,906 63,226 104,228 231 127 262 1,984 736,456 1,426,762 2,554,812 156 83 251 3,596 33,191 60,078 98,899 232 121 261 2,891 83,205 159,860 275,704 157 79 250 349 31,093 56,241 92,404 233 128 260 3,049 458,423 897,844 1,601,997 158 90 253 840 37,412 67,845 112,056 234 121 255 3,053 83,205 159,860 275,704 159 91 253 743 38,082 69,086 114,161 235 123 253 9,764 99,883 194,325 337,486 160 82 259 - 32,647 59,082 97,213 236 127 253 600 736,456 1,426,762 2,554,812 161 83 262 2,084 33,191 60,078 98,899 237 124 251 - 117,579 229,993 401,425 162 87 261 3,716 35,508 64,333 106,103 238 121 251 9,086 83,205 159,860 275,704 163 89 267 3,079 36.,760 66,641 110,013 239 125 248 263 156,549 306,979 539,647 164 93 268 9,447 38,772 70,364 116,333 240 121 248 1,088 83,205 159,860 275,704 165 86 273 349 34,906 63,226 104,228 241 131 250 600 148,256 314,950 551,478 166 92 276 10,419 38,772 70,364 116,333 242 133 254 229 128,049 269,708 469,526 167 93 280 9,508 39,481 71,682 118,575 243 135 269 2,258 113,395 231,596 399,921 168 94 282 431 40,213 73,043 120,893 244 136 269 1,984 108,338 218,120 374,740 169 92 284 1,335 38,772 70,364 116,333 245 133 274 945 128,049 269,708 469,526 170 94 291 1,335 40,213 73,043 120,893 246 133 283 1,024 128,049 269,708 469,526 171 - - 1,335 - - - 247 137 282 - 104,315 207,435 354,234 172 88 299 12,134 36,125 65,471 108,030 248 136 286 1,133 108,338 218,120 374,740 173 97 229 - 42,548 77,407 128,354 249 131 286 941 148,256 314,950 551,478 174 97 235 - 42,548 77,406 128,354 250 138 292 1,159 100,965 198,641 336,823 175 96 236 - 41,744 75,902 125,776 251 138 295 431 100,965 198,641 336,823 176 93 235 - 39,481 71,682 118,575 252 140 298 795 95,469 184,550 307,792 177 92 236 15,536 38,772 70,364 116,333 253 142 303 795 91,048 173,529 284,351 178 91 239 14,434 38,082 69,086 114,161 254 147 308 356 83,289 154,724 243,993 179 93 239 - 39,481 71,682 118,575 255 149 204 - 81,108 149,556 232,960 180 94 239 - 40,213 73,043 120,893 256 148 298 964 82,148 152,013 283,202 181 92 242 14,243 38,772 70,364 116,333 257 150 301 431 80,156 147,320 228,196 182 94 245 2,040 40,213 73,043 120,893 258 150 297 431 80,156 147,320 228,196 183 96 249 638 41,744 75,902 125,776 259 149 291 788 81,108 149,556 232,960 184 93 250 - 39,481 71,682 118,575 260 146 289 739 84,544 157,723 256,411 185 95 255 2,554 40,967 74,449 123,291 261 144 288 476 87,462 164,759 265,512 186 93 259 11,801 38,772 70,364 116,333 262 140 289 - 95,469 184,540 307,792 187 101 262 416 46,046 84,010 139,745 263 147 285 476 83,289 154,724 243,993 188 98 263 1,935 43,377 78,966 131,032 264 143 283 1,526 89,161 168,895 274,408 189 101 254 416 46,046 84,010 139,745 265 149 282 611 81,108 149,556 232,960 190 100 271 2,186 45,125 82,263 136,718 266 140 277 1,170 95,469 184,550 307,792 191 100 274 2,186 44,236 80,583 133,817 267 141 275 476 93,143 178,720 295,446 192 100 284 788 45,125 82,263 136,718 268 145 275 784 85,929 161,052 257,549 193 109 228 1,631 54,920 101,176 170,031 269 144 272 1,984 87,462 164,759 265,512 194 105 230 3,236 50,105 91,780 153,338 270 141 268 2,051 93,143 178,720 295,446 195 103 234 686 47,995 87,726 146,219 271 147 262 476 83,289 154,724 243,993 196 108 240 - 53,630 98,639 165,499 272 145 260 483 85,929 161,052 257,549 197 109 242 6,490 54,920 101,176 170,031 273 140 242 263 95,469 184,550 307,792 198 106 241 1,418 51,228 93,953 157,175 274 153 266 338 77,735 141,702 216,231 199 109 245 1,065 54,920 101,176 170,031 275 150 270 1,484 80,156 147,320 228,196 200 104 245 2,606 49,029 89,707 149,691 276 153 271 1,751 77,735 141,702 216,231 201 105 247 5,670 50,105 91,780 153,338 277 158 271 765 74,713 134,911 201,771 202 105 248 50,105 91,780 153,338 278 151 275 1,046 79,283 145,280 223,853 203 103 250 1,455 47,995 87,726 146,219 279 151 277 931 79,283 145,280 223,853 204 107 250 1,069 52,401 96,236 161,222 280 154 276 2,220 77,045 140,126 212,874 205 110 257 251 56,277 103,864 174,847 281 155 282 931 76,404 138,672 209,775 206 110 286 788 56,277 103,864 174,847 282 160 286 500 73,736 132,801 197,307 207 117 229 960 68,875 129,646 221,340 283 157 290 780 75,242 136,075 204,246 208 114 233 645 62,595 116,612 197,813 284 157 299 533 75,242 136,075 204,246 209 119 238 960 74,613 141,743 243,138 285 159 299 847 74,212 133,822 199,464 210 115 240 304 64,484 120,494 204,832 286 160 297 533 73,736 132,801 197,307 211 119 242 341 74,613 141,743 243,138 287 163 297 679 72,426 130,070 191,607 212 116 246 10,031 66,559 124,804 212,603 288 166 292 578 71,239 127,712 186,831 213 111 246 2,603 57,711 106,721 179,981 289 167 287 1,078 70,862 126,986 185,403 214 116 248 2,813 66,559 124,804 212,603 290 169 285 1,484 70,123 125,605 182,755 215 115 253 859 64,484 120,499 204,832 291 166 282 - 71,239 127,712 182,831 216 112 253 59,231 109,775 185,478 292 169 283 2,290 70,123 125,605 182,755 217 117 259 431 68,875 129,646 221,340 293 168 281 1,694 70,490 126,285 184,047 218 113 266 251 60,853 113,057 191,397 294 169 279 578 70,123 125,605 182,755 219 116 272 750 66,559 124,804 212,603 295 167 279 2,614 70,862 126,986 185,403 220 118 284 251 71,516 135,202 231,357 296 163 278 2,688 72,426 130,070 191,607 221 120 284 750 78,382 149,707 257,467 297 160 277 1,983 73,736 132,801 197,307 222 123 286 1,358 99,883 194,325 337,486 298 162 277 72,846 130,932 193,391 223 122 289 608 89,828 173,669 300,471 299 164 274 1,238 72,020 129,249 189,925 224 118 289 788 71,516 135,202 231,357 300 163 273 427 72,426 130,070 191,607

-257TABLE II (CONT'D) Potential Potential Point x Y i 1960 1975 1985 Point x Y ji 1960'1975 1985 301 161 270 338 73,282 131,840 195,287 351 99 203 851 44,236 80,583 133,817 302 169 279 1,174 70,123 125,605 182,755 352 104 208 49,029 89,707 149,691 303 169 271 - 70,123 125,605 182,755 353 111 227 1,005 57,711 106,721 179,981 304 166 270 578 71,239 127,712 186,831 354 93 234 - 39,481 71,682 118,575 305 164 265 338 72,020 129,249 189,925 355 90 234 1,185 37,412 67,845 112,056 306 172 270 - 69,041 123,665 179,224 356 95 244 817 40,967 74,449 123,291 307 174 283 500 68,327 122,435 177,116 357 112 257 1,181 59,231 109,775 185,478 308 187 267 - 63,628 115,064 166,960 358 116 257 1,984 66,559 124,804 212,603 309 185 289 199 64,359 116,147 168,173 359 112 250 3,281 59,231 109,775 185,478 310 180 323 169 66,176 118,930 171,739 360 151 309 - 79,283 145,280 223,853 311 188 330 814 63,263 114,529 166,399 361 174 273 3,281 68,327 122,435 177,116 312 202 345 169 58,239 107,474 161,208 362 171 290 2,018 69,400 124,298 180,348 313 170 51 - 69,760 124,944 181,524 363 906 314 162 63 5,438 72,846 130,932 193,391 364 315 150 83 5,438 80,156 147,320 228,196 365 316 145 94 5,438 85,929 161,052 257,549 366 317 141 102 5,438 93,143 178,720 295,446 367 318 132 118 5,438 137,463 292,400 510,646 368 319 126 130 5,438 278,404 543,744 965,461 369 320 121 138 5,438 83,205 159,860 275,704 370 1,193 321 113 143 5,438 60,853 113,057 191,397 371 1,620 322 95 169 5,438 40,967 74,449 123,291 372 4,988 323 84 191 5,438 33,748 61,100 100,629 373 5,134 324 84 199 5,438 33,748 61,100 100,629 374 - 325 89 214 5,438 36,760 66,641 110,013 375 155 320 169 76,404 138,672 269,775 326 90 223 5,438 37,412 67,845 112,056 376 208 304 199 55,915 104,104 158,680 327 93 229 218 39,481 71,682 118,575 377 145 302 - 85,929 161,052 257,549 328 93 231 - 39,481 71,682 118,575 378 160 267 578 73,736 132,801 197,307 329 95 233 6,439 40,967 74,449 123,291 379 152 252 - 78,478 143,414 219,878 330 101 231 6,490 46,046 84,010 139,745 380 152 289 908 78,478 143,414 219,878 331 101 232 3,510 46,046 84,010 139,745 381 95 258 1,211 40,967 74,449 123,291 332 102 230 686 47,002 85,829 142,908 382 98 213 956 43,377 78,966 131,032 333 100 228 5,486 45,125 82,263 136,718 383 70 235 4,182 27,041 48,852 79,903 334 98 235 13,009 43,377 78,966 131,032 384 104 213 1,260 49,029 189,707 149,691 335 100 241 9,117 45,125 82,263 136,718 385 97 232 6,656 42,548 77,407 128,354 336 99 246 - 44,239 80,583 133,817 386 97 240 9,220 42,548 77,407 128,354 337 100 247 - 45,125 82,263 136,718 387 338 161 331 - 73,282 131,840 195,287 388 593 85,929 161,052 257,549 339 155 321 - 76,404 138,672 209,775 389 593 93,143 178,720 295,446 340 149 310 - 81,108 149,556 232,960 390 341 146 299 - 85,929 161,052 257,549 391 342 145 292 - 85,929 161,052 257,549 392 2,528 137,463 292,400 510,646 343 143 286 - 89,161 168,898 274,408. 393 344 139 278 - 98,056 191,128 321,509 394 345 135 272 423 113,395 231,596 399,921 395 346 131 268 1,699 148,256 314,950 551,478 396 347 126 263 - 278,404 543,744 965,461 397 348 120 259 1,984 78,382 149,707 257,467 398 349 99 245 1,984 44,236 80,583 133,817 399 350 68 180 5,265 26,249 47,410 77,469 400

-258TABLE III POINTS IDENTIFYING EACH LINE ON THE NETWORK Assumed Distance Length of Between Stops Line Passing Points No. Line (Km) (Mi.) BL2 85, 87, 86, 88, 98, 117, 128 10.00 400 3 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 9.20 500 3' 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 8.50 500 4 40, 39, 41, 42, 34, 149, 144, 329, 385 8.40 400 5 350, 8, 10, 13, 15, 19, 26, 27, 29, 30, 149, 144, 329, 385 14.70 400 5' 385, 329, 144, 149, 29, 27, 26, 22, 21, 16, 13, 10, 8, 350 14.70 400 6 350, 8, 10, 13, 15, 19, 25, 383, 149, 144, 329, 385 11.05 400 7 6, 7, 350, 8, 10, 11, 101, 103, 104, 105, 136, 137, 133, 131, 172 10.60 400 7' 385, 327, 131, 133, 137, 136, 105, 104, 103, 101, 11, 10, 8, 350 8.30 400 8 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 101, 103, 104, 105, 136, 137 13.70 400 8' 137, 136, 105, 104, 103, 101, 11, 109, 5 10.70 400 9 350, 8, 10, 13, 15, 18, 372, 373, 142, 178 9.00 400 10 350, 8, 10, 13, 15, 18, 372, 373, 133, 131, 172 8.50 400 11 90, 351, 97, 88, 86, 102, 11, 13, 16, 20, 19, 26, 27, 29, 35, 36, 42, 41, 39, 40 17.70 500 12 117, 111, 115, 116, 136, 105, 104, 103, 101, 11, 13, 15, 18, 372, 373, 133, 135, 113, 117 6.40 400 12' 117, 113, 135, 133, 373, 372, 18, 15, 13, 11, 101, 103, 104, 105, 136, 116, 115, 111, 117 6.40 400 16 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 13, 15, 18, 372, 373 14.00 400 16' 5, 9, 10, 13, 15, 18, 372, 373 11.00 400 18 40, 39, 41, 42, 34, 149, 145, 152 9.00 400 19 350, 8, 10, 13, 15, 19, 25, 383, 149, 144, 178 19.00 400 21 167, 166, 163, 155, 154, 153, 181, 178, 142, 138, 133, 135, 114, 111, 117 9.80 400 22 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 329, 385 8.20 400 22' 186, 181, 329, 385 4.50 400 23 171, 170, 169, 166, 164, 381, 185, 182, 178, 142, 138, 133, 135, 114, 111, 117 14.50 400 24 181, 190, 187, 189, 182, 386, 334 6.50 400 25 167, 166, 163, 162, 186, 181, 329, 385 8.20 400 26 171, 170, 169, 165, 157, 148, 139, 138 10.40 400 27 191, 190, 188, 185, 181, 329, 385 6.00 400 27' 188, 185, 181, 329, 385 4.20 400 29 191, 190, 188, 381, 186, 181, 178, 144, 149, 383, 24, 17, 12, 10 14.70 400 32 167, 166, 163, 155, 154, 145, 139, 138 8.20 400 34 350, 355, 388, 389, 242, 245, 227, 346, 230, 233, 235, 238, 214, 359, 201, 335 13.80 550 35 312, 311, 310, 375, 355, 257, 284, 286, 287, 283, 311, 370, 280, 278 14.20 450 36 249, 246, 245, 227, 228, 232, 201, 385, 117, 133 11.00 500 37 249, 222, 223, 220, 218, 205, 204, 203, 183, 182, 386, 334 9.60 400 38 249, 222, 221, 219, 357, 204, 203, 356, 386, 334 8.00 400 40 228, 232, 201, 335, 177, 140 8.00 400 41 254, 253, 252, 250, 261, 264, 266, 243, 230, 233, 234, 359, 201, 335, 177, 140 16.50 500 43 254, 253, 252, 250, 248, 245, 228, 232, 201, 335, 177, 140 14.50 500 44 350, 355, 256, 260, 264, 266, 243, 230, 233, 235, 238, 212, 199, 201, 335, 117, 140 15.00 500 46 361, 295, 296, 271, 311, 380, 263, 267, 243, 392, 233, 234, 359, 201, 335, 177, 140 16.8 500 48 361, 295, 371, 370, 280, 270, 392, 233, 234, 359, 201, 335, 177, 329, 385 15.00 500 50 292, 302, 295, 371, 280, 270, 392, 233, 234, 359, 201, 335, 177, 140 15.00 500 51 361, 295, 296, 297, 276, 270, 392, 235, 240, 212, 197, 330 13.00 500 53 278, 276, 270, 392, 233, 234, 359, 201, 335, 117, 140 11.60 500 54 361, 245, 296, 299, 300, 277, 276, 268, 345, 346, 228, 232, 215, 214, 212, 197, 330 15.50 550 57 278, 276, 277, 301, 305, 274, 272, 241, 236, 235, 240, 212, 197, 330 13.20 500 63 209, 207, 353, 194, 331, 172, 131, 133, 138, 139, 142, 329, 385, 331, 194, 353, 207, 209 6.40 400 68 124, 126, 127, 129, 172, 334, 386, 200, 213, 212, 238, 235 9.80 400 78 235, 238, 212, 199, 203, 183, 185, 381, 186, 159 9.30 400 81 158, 155, 156, 144, 329, 385, 333, 125, 119, 93, 91 10.20 400 82 158, 155, 156, 139, 138, 137, 136, 106, 99, 97, 351, 94, 93, 91 12.30 400 84 90, 94, 119, 384, 130, 172, 331, 194, 353, 208, 210, 212, 240, 235 12.30 400 85 384, 382, 113, 172, 331, 194, 353, 208, 211, 238, 235 10.50 400 87 90, 94, 119, 125, 333, 385, 329, 177, 200, 213, 212, 238, 235 10.50 400 88 96, 97, 98, 109, 108, 115, 117, 128, 332, 195, 198, 199, 212, 238, 235 10.90 400 89 96, 97, 98,, 1, 1, 1, 109, 108, 115, 113, 135, 172, 330, 197, 212, 238, 235 10.90 400 93 89, 88, 98, 109, 108, 115, 114, 135, 172, 374, 386, 356, 203, 204, 357, 217 12.00 400 95 85, 87, 102, 101, 103, 104, 105, 136, 137, 138, 142, 178 10.10 420 95' 102, 101, 103, 104, 105, 136, 137, 138, 142, 178 6.00 400 98 102, 101, 103, 104, 136, 115, 114, 135, 172, 385, 329, 177 8.50 400

-259TABLE III (CONT'D) Assumed Distance Length of Between Stops Line Passing Points No. Line (Km) (Mi.) 105 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 177, 140, 137, 136, 105, 104, 103, 101, 102, 87, 85 15.20 400 111 44, 43, 3, 3 35, 31 4.50 400 124 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 178, 142, 138, 137, 136, 105, 104, 14, 13, 10, 8, 350 14.05 400 124' 186, 181, 178, 142, 138, 137, 136, 105, 104, 14, 13, 10 9.70 400 128 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 178, 335, 201, 359, 234 10.10 400 128' 236, 241, 273, 239, 235 2.50 400 132 171, 170, 169, 166, 164, 186, 181, 329, 385, 331, 194, 193 11.60 400 134 191, 190, 188, 185, 181, 177, 140, 137, 136, 107, 109, 98, 88, 89 10.70 400 134' 191, 190, 188, 185, 181, 177, 140 6.20 400 143 285, 286, 284, 256, 388, 389, 250, 248, 246, 222, 221, 219, 357, 198, 195, 332, 129, 131, 133 17.00 420 146 350, 355, 257, 258, 260, 264, 266, 243, 346, 228, 232, 215, 214, 197, 330 14.40 410 149 285, 287, 283, 265, 243, 346, 229, 232, 201, 335, 386, 334, 331, 194, 193 16.00 410 149' 193, 194, 331, 334, 386, 335, 201, 232, 299, 346, 243, 265, 283 14.00 400 152 292, 293, 296, 297, 280, 279, 281, 380, 259, 251, 226, 225, 224, 206, 192, 168, 167 17.3 600 153 292, 293, 371, 370, 280, 268, 264, 261, 248, 246, 222, 223, 224, 206, 192, 166, 164, 186, 159 18.00 400 167 193, 194, 331, 172, 131, 133, 373, 372, 18, 20, 21, 23, 28 10.90 400 167' 331, 172, 131, 133, 373, 372, 18, 20, 21, 23, 28 9.00 400 173 119, 125, 129, 131, 133, 138, 144, 149, 34, 42, 41, 39, 40 12.00 400 174 384, 382, 117, 115, 137, 353, 372, 18, 19, 26, 27, 32, 34, 35, 36, 42, 41, 39, 40 15.80 400 174' 384, 382, 117, 115, 137, 373, 272, 18, 19, 36, 37, 32, 34 9.30 400 175 167, 166, 164, 186, 182, 386, 334, 333, 125 10.40 400 176 191, 190, 188, 185, 182, 380, 334, 172, 129, 125 10.20 400 334 278, 276, 297, 299, 309, 376 14.60 400 401 333, 125, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123 12.40 550 405 119, 93, 92, 83 6.70 450 411 74, 73, 78, 77, 79, 82, 85, 87, 106, 137, 133, 131, 172 17.00 450 412 75 76, 77, 71, 81, 87, 106, 136, 137, 138, 142, 178 15.90 450 431 56, 55, 49, 48, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 70, 72, 77, 79, 82, 85, 87, 106, 136, 137, 138, 142, 178 34.00 700 432 55, 56, 57, 48, 58, 59, 60, 61, 64, 70, 72, 77, 71, 81, 87, 106, 137, 138, 142, 178 35.00 700 441 45, 47, 49, 50, 51, 54, 56, 57, 48, 46, 45 7.80 500 YL15 8, 10, 12, 17, 24, 383, 149, 144, 334, 172, 135, 130, 115, 116, 136, 87, 102, 11, 10, 8 20.40 460 30 235, 238, 212, 197, 330, 172, 135, 130, 115, 116, 136, 87, 89 11.00 400 33 235, 238, 212, 197, 330, 334, 144, 149, 35, 36, 143 11.20 400 44 89, 86, 102, 11, 12, 17, 24, 383, 35, 36, 143 10.10 400 L1 238, 212, 197, 330, 133, 135, 113, 117 6.50 400 2 238, 212, 197, 330, 333, 125, 119, 93, 91 7.30 400' 3 235, 238, 212, 213, 335, 177, 178, 142, 138,:33, 131, 172 8.80 400 3 235, 238, 212, 213, 335, 177, 178, 142, 138, 133, 131 7.00 400 5 167, 166, 164, 162, 156, 148 6.40 400 6 163, 156, 152, 178, 142, 138, 133, 130, 128, 117, 98 10.60 400 7 167, 166, 164, 162, 156, 152, 178, 142, 138, 133, 135, 113, 117 11.60 400 8 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 178, 142, 138, 133, 131, 172, 334, 386, 177, 181, 186, 164, 166, 167 8.20 400 11 235, 238, 212, 197, 330, 334, 386, 177, 152, 156, 163 10.00 400 13 163, 156, 152, 177, 386, 334, 333, 125, 119, 93, 91 10.00 400 13' 163, 156, 152, 177, 386, 334, 333, 125, 119, 93 16.00 400 16 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 17, 142, 138, 133, 135, 1 117 9.00 400 16' 161, 162, 186, 181, 178, 142, 138, 133, 135, 113, 117 14.00 400 17 214, 200, 335, 177, 178, 142, 138, 135, 113, 117, 128, 130, 133, 138, 142, 178, 177, 335, 200, 214 7.70 400 20 167, 166, 164, 186, 181, 178, 142, 138, 133, 131, 172, 334, 386, 177, 181, 186, 164, 166, 167 8.20 400 21 235, 238, 212, 213, 335, 177, 181, 186, 164, 166, 167 10.00 400 21' 235, 238, 212, 213, 335, 177, 181, 186, 164 15.50 400 22 235, 238, 212, 197, 330, 333, 1 117, 1, 198 8.63 400 22' 235, 238, 212, 197, 330, 333, 128, 117 13.00 400 23 148, 152, 178, 142, 138, 133, 131, 172, 125, 119, 93, 91 10.00 400 4 148, 152, 177, 386, 334, 172, 128, 117 10.20 400 30 161, 162, 186, 181, 177, 386, 334, 172, 131, 135, 113, 117, 128, 333, 334, 386, 177, 181, 186, 162, 161 8.30 400 55 117, 128, 333, 334, 386, 177, 178, 142, 138, 133, 135, 113, 117 8.20 400 ML1 (Abdel Aziz) 307, 289, 282, 281, 279, 269, 244, 230, 231, 348, 358, 349, 181, 178, 148 2 (Nozha) 362, 290, 292, 293, 296, 297, 275, 269, 244, 230, 231, 348, 358, 349, 181, 178, 148 3 (Mirghany) 288, 289, 290, 294, 302, 304, 378, 275, 269, 244, 230, 231, 348, 358, 349, 181, 178, 148 4 (Estad) 379, 271, 275, 269, 244, 230, 231, 348, 358, 349, 181, 178, 148 ERL (Helwan) 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 326 2 (Matteria) 338, 339, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349 NOTE: (1) BL: Bus Line; YL: Trollybus Line; TL: Tramway Line; ML: Metro Line; RL: Railroad Line (2) Since the actual stops on the network were not known, the choosen points were taken at random but to identify the path of all lines. Adjustments in the sum of the potential at these point to approximately equal that sum of the potential at the exact stops on the network, has been done. through the assignment of distances between stops of each line as shown in -the table above. The sum of potential then is divided by the number of random points on a line and multipling by the number of assumed actual stops calculated from the assumed distances between stops.

3 9~^ TABLE IV PROJECTED TRA.FIC VOLUME* O EACH LIRE Line No. (1960)2/L (1960) VLs (1975) VLs (1985) VLs Line No. (l960)L8s (1960) VL6 (1975) VL (1985) VLS BL2 245 t54 512 714 BL124' 528 740 3 95 248 372 516 128 502 618 847 1282 3' 23 42 225 242 128' 325 69 648 990 4 308 587 592 843 132 370 790 673 984 5 250 512 565 798 134 283 471 560 794 5' 106 1563 356 455 134' 107 139 337 426 6 267 742 635 912 143 761 494 1211 1869 7 199 511 550 775 146 839 643 1330 2090 7' 178 167 339 428 149 989 865 1509 2340 8 336 711 755 1124 149' 176 126 436 590 8' 156 84 312 382 152 870 618 1734 5757 9 220 604 560 789 153 735 549 1177 1810 10 321 546 704 1026 167 322 668 611 878 11 192 652 457 620 167' 112 205 343 434 12 148 758 399 527 173 440 825 760 1122 12' 147 760 398 525 174 357 710 653 943 16 109 320 388 514 174' 83 134 307 374 16' 120 107 317 390 175 361 588 661 963 18 193 423 446 602 176 295 427 577 824 19 260 387 642 923 334 363 100 663 893 21 266 421 538 758 401 152 48 406 549 22 232 334 496 689 405 217 251 480 669 22' 97 96 264 304 411 407 247 725 1079 23 490 714 823 1229 412 329 227 623 906 24 218 289 479 662 431 531 291 885 1347 25 336 592 628 906 432 554 339 948 1441 26 199 246 454 618 441 61 100 280 319 27 240 367 507 708 27' 108 106 271 316 YL15 786 2485 1707 2677 29 210 305 545 769 30 1243 1356 1813 2915 32 207 338 464 634 33 1342 1632 1948 3149 34 592 163 1033 1651 44 182 510 555 781 35 243 158 510 666 36 582 224 1016 1624 TL. 211 280 474 660 37 287 248 587 858 2 236 263 507 716 38 381 442 714 1076 3 232 223 504 711 40 600 614 989 1539 3' 348 446 655 966 41 1181 694 1801 2932 5 203 269 459 626 43 679 405 1127 1764 6 178 266 427 573 44 725 488 1206 1920 7 440 592 759 1121 46 996 731 1526 2398 8 218 621 478 658 48 1025 818 1620 2591 11 418 393 746 1120 50 1018 730 1585 2515 13 416 469 731 1081 51 556 505 1101 1643 13' 568 353 937 1422 53 525 316 905 1400 16 367 496 667 970 54 738 610 1185 1799 16' 342 287 635 917 57 805 295 1282 2031 17 257 600 529 747 63' 140 338 382 505 20 212 480 470 645 68 423 482 751 1130 21 490 586 840 1278 78 358 368 668 990 21' 620 374 1011 1572 81 309 719 595 855 22 658 597 1081 1691 82 351 607 647 940 22 508 359 867 1330 84 378 474 694 1033 23 198 235 454 619 85 375 503 691 1030 30 663 694 726 87 467 669 808 1224 55 128 306 364 88 320 436 616 898 4 590 845 89 - - 93453 657 780 1163M 518 813 1015 1582 95 379 692 681 991 2 1012 1500 1784 2858 95' 199 174 328 410 3 618 969 1247 1948 98 227 303 490 677 4 451 781 105 499 701 833 1243 11 43 68 256 290 BL. 5598 9285 124 544 869 922 1388 2 * Traffic volume in number of passengers per each normal hour.