Projecting dental treatment needs of the West Malaysian population of dental caries and periodontal diseases.

Abstract

This study undertakes to develop a need-based model as an approach to study the potential impact of changes in the epidemiology of dental diseases in the West Malaysian population. A model of treatment needs was developed. Two sets of information, population and the prevalence of dental diseases (caries and periodontal diseases) on the West Malaysian population were collected. A trend analysis to look at the direction of caries and periodontal disease patterns was then performed. Following this, forecasts of dental caries and periodontal disease incidence were generated. This information was then combined with population projections to come up with projections of needs. Findings show that caries is declining for the age group below 19 years old. In terms of periodontal status, findings from this study indicate that healthy gingiva and gingivitis are becoming more prevalent among the younger age groups. Calculus appears to be widely distributed across all age groups. Pocket formation, initially observed on the 25 year-olds, appears to increase with increasing age. The total number of teeth and persons needing restorations and/or periodontal treatment is large enough to warrant some speculations on the impact it may have on the Malaysian dental scene. Under the current population growth, for the years 1990-1995, between 12.4 and 25 million hours are needed to treat 49.3 million teeth per year in West Malaysia for the effects of caries. By 2020 the figures are projected to have reached 25.1 million hours and 85.4 million teeth annually. As for periodontal status, if one assumes that every healthy individual and those with gingivitis require oral hygiene instruction as a prevention strategy, then the 6.5 million people falling into this category require at least 2.9 million hours per year of oral hygiene instruction, 7.2 million hours per year for prophylaxis and scaling and, another one million hours per year will be needed to correct the 6 mm or more pockets. The estimates are projected to be one and a half times more if the 70 million population size is realized. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.).