Educational expansion and the emerging fertility transition in Kenya.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between education and fertility behavior in Kenya. The general hypothesis being tested is that involvement in formal education earlier in the life course influences the individual's subsequent fertility decisions later in the life course. This study uses data from the 1978, 1989, and 1993 demographic surveys. Combining the data from the three surveys allows one to study the effects of spread of education in Kenya over much of this century by examining the educational attainment of cohorts born as early as 1926 and as late as 1978. This study has generated several interesting findings. First, the large gender gap in education that was evident among those born before 1940 has essentially disappeared among younger generations with at least upper primary education. However, a higher proportion of males than females still make the critical transition from upper primary to lower secondary. Second, analysis of age-specific fertility rates shows the pace of fertility decline accelerated in the early 1990s. Fertility decline in the 1980s occurred among all age groups, with women aged over 34 contributing more to the decline than younger age groups. Subsequent decline in the early 1990s can be attributed to a significant fertility decline among younger age groups and sustained lower fertility rates among women age 35 or older. Lastly, the amount of education needed before any significant decline in fertility occurs has also been declining. For women born between 1944-1948, it took 11 to 12 years of education to have a significant negative effect on fertility. Women born after 1954 require a minimum of 6 to 7 years of schooling. With increasing educational attainment among both men and women, these findings imply that fertility decline will continue in the future.