Economic Determinants of Fertility: a Study of Rural North India.

Abstract

In this study, fertility behavior of married couples in Uttar Pradesh state of India is examined by using two causal models drawn from the economic literature on fertility. The first model is used to estimate the determinants of lifetime fertility decisions of couples. The second model is used to examine the sequential decision process by which couples determine their fertility. In both models, fertility is hypothesized to be a function of the demographic characteristics of the couples such as age, of the social characteristics such as caste or education, of the family's economic characteristics such as income and of the couple's perceptions of the utility and costs associated with children. Empirical estimates of the determinants of fertility are based on data collected in 1972 from a representative sample of married couples living in the rural areas of two districts of Uttar Pradesh. Estimation techniques include multiple classification analysis and path analysis. The empirical results show that family income has a significant positive effect on children ever born. Infant and child mortality is also significantly associated with fertility, but the model specification does not permit causal interpretation. Parental perception of costs of children, although not an important predictor of children ever born, is a significant determinant of contraceptive use. Contraceptive use is also influenced by the education of the husb and . Perceived utility of children, perhaps because of its small variance, is not a key predictor of children ever born and desire for additional children. Desire for additional children is mainly explained by the age of wife and the number of children parents have.