Long-range scenario construction for technology assessment

Abstract

Long-range scenario construction is an integral part of a technology assessment. Alternative future scenarios provide the socioeconomic context in which technological systems can be forecast and assessed. Therefore, scenarios must be constructed in order to meet the information needs of all other portions of the study. One scenario construction approach, designed to meet this need, consists of the following elements: emphasis on range and consistency, specifically with respect to the technology assessed, combination of judgment and discipline, gradual divergence, and top-down variable disaggregation. As illustrated in an application to aviation communications technology assessment, this approach provides relevant information to the other portions of the study. Thus the scenarios provide the backdrop upon which the remainder of the study rests.