Development of Bayesian Monte Carlo techniques for water quality model uncertainty
dc.contributor.author | Dilks, David W. | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Canale, Raymond P. | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Meier, Peter G. | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2006-04-10T15:09:38Z | |
dc.date.available | 2006-04-10T15:09:38Z | |
dc.date.issued | 1992-07 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Dilks, David W., Canale, Raymond P., Meier, Peter G. (1992/07)."Development of Bayesian Monte Carlo techniques for water quality model uncertainty." Ecological Modelling 62(1-3): 149-162. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/29959> | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBS-48XDCG2-9Y/2/4ca045a15f665619bb8e3f0408dc88d7 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/29959 | |
dc.description.abstract | A new technique, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), is used to quantify errors in water quality models caused by uncertain parameters. BMC also provides estimates of parameter uncertainty as a function of observed data on model state variables. The use of Bayesian inference generates uncertainty estimates that combine prior information on parameter uncertainty with observed variation in water quality data to provide an improved estimate of model parameter and output uncertainty. It also combines Monte Carlo analysis with Bayesian inference to determine the ability of random selected parameter sets to simulate observed data. BMC expands upon previous studies by providing a quantitative estimate of parameter acceptability using the statistical likelihood function. The likelihood of each parameter set is employed to generate an n-dimensional hypercube describing a probability distribution of each parameter and the covariance among parameters. These distributions are utilized to estimate uncertainty in model predictions. Application of BMC to a dissolved oxygen model reduced the estimated uncertainty in model output by 72% compared with standard Monte Carlo techniques. Sixty percent of this reduction was directly attributed to consideration of covariance between model parameters. A significant benefit of the technique is the ability to compare the reduction in total model output uncertainty corresponding to: (1) collection of more data on model state variables, and (2) laboratory or field studies to better define model processes. Limitations of the technique include computational requirements and accurate estimation of the joint probability distribution of model errors. This analysis was conducted assuming that model error is normally and independently distributed. | en_US |
dc.format.extent | 776777 bytes | |
dc.format.extent | 3118 bytes | |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.format.mimetype | text/plain | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
dc.title | Development of Bayesian Monte Carlo techniques for water quality model uncertainty | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.rights.robots | IndexNoFollow | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Urban Planning | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Philosophy | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Natural Resources and Environment | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Ecology and Evolutionary Biology | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Social Sciences | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Humanities | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Science | en_US |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationum | Civil Engineering Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationum | School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationother | Limno-Tech, Inc., 2395 Huron Parkway, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA | en_US |
dc.description.bitstreamurl | http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/29959/1/0000321.pdf | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(92)90087-U | en_US |
dc.identifier.source | Ecological Modelling | en_US |
dc.owningcollname | Interdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed |
Files in this item
Remediation of Harmful Language
The University of Michigan Library aims to describe library materials in a way that respects the people and communities who create, use, and are represented in our collections. Report harmful or offensive language in catalog records, finding aids, or elsewhere in our collections anonymously through our metadata feedback form. More information at Remediation of Harmful Language.
Accessibility
If you are unable to use this file in its current format, please select the Contact Us link and we can modify it to make it more accessible to you.