Job Creation, Destruction and Transition in Poland, 1988-1998: Panel Evidence

Abstract

Longitudinal data from interviews with Poles of working age conducted in 1988, 1993 and 1998 present a detailed view of the transition from a state dominated to a market economy. Job loss in state firms and job creation in new private firms are the dominant employment change, other than retirements from the labor force. In the Polish case, a significant proportion of this movement over the 1988 to 1998 period involves a period of unemployment or exit from the labor force before obtaining a private sector job. A second feature of the Polish transition is considerable job competition between workers leaving the state sector and those who were out of the labor force at the beginning of the transition. The likelihood of moving to the private sector was higher for the better educated and for residents of regions with a robust de novo economy, suggesting that the supply of jobs in the private sector combined with higher levels of human capital lead to faster and smoother transitions. Lastly, wage differences between the state sector and the de novo sector appear to have little association with mobility, suggesting that movement is not strongly related to the opportunity to find a higher paying job.