Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries
dc.contributor.author | Block, Steven A. | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Schrage, Burkhard N. | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Vaaler, Paul M. | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2006-08-01T15:59:20Z | |
dc.date.available | 2006-08-01T15:59:20Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2003-02-01 | en_US |
dc.identifier.other | RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-546 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/39931 | en_US |
dc.description.abstract | We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived from the framework with 482 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000. We find that ratings are linked to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Consistent with the framework, rating effects are sometimes greater for right-wing compared to left-wing incumbents, perhaps, because partisan PBC considerations with right-wing (left-wing) incumbents reinforce (counteract) opportunistic PBC considerations. | en_US |
dc.format.extent | 100706 bytes | |
dc.format.extent | 3151 bytes | |
dc.format.extent | 438221 bytes | |
dc.format.mimetype | text/plain | |
dc.format.mimetype | text/plain | |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 546 | en_US |
dc.subject | Economics, Elections, Developing Countries, Ratings | en_US |
dc.subject.other | D72, F30, F34, G12, G14, G15, G29 | en_US |
dc.title | Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries | en_US |
dc.type | Working Paper | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Economics | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Business | en_US |
dc.description.bitstreamurl | http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39931/3/wp546.pdf | en_US |
dc.owningcollname | William Davidson Institute (WDI) - Working Papers |
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