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| Title: | Assessing the Vulnerability to Drought in Ceara, Northeast Brazil |
| Authors: | Brant, Simone |
| Keywords: | draught
northeast brazil |
| Issue Date: | Dec-2007 |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to contribute to the understanding of the current vulnerability to
variability in rainfall of small farmers in the State of Ceará in Northeast Brazil by
identifying factors that affect a household’s vulnerability and its ability to prepare for, or
respond to, droughts. Understanding these factors can help to identify the households
most in need of assistance during a drought and provide a target for programs that build
capacity to adapt. Assistance programs currently use criteria to identify eligible
programs. This analysis could also help inform an assessment of whether those criteria
are appropriate for assisting the most vulnerable families.
While, overall, we would expect that vulnerability would be tied to poverty, for this
study, I make the assumption that within comparable levels of poverty, there are factors
that may increase the resilience of some households to drought. Hence, although all
households surveyed for this study would be considered poor, I assume that specific
factors—such as land ownership, irrigation or pension income—may make a family more
resilient to drought. Both qualitative and quantitative data and methods are used in this
analysis. The qualitative section describes the information acquired in interviews with
Brazilian experts. These responses were used to inform the selection of variables in the
quantitative portion of the analysis. The quantitative piece uses data from a survey of
small farmers in two areas of Ceará. Participation in a work front, a state-run temporary
employment program available only during droughts, is used as a proxy for vulnerability
to drought since historically work fronts have been used only as a last resort strategy
when families have lost all other alternatives of income. A probit analysis is used to
identify economic and demographic variables that are linked with increased probability
of participation in the work front. A factor analysis is then used to identify components
that explain a significant portion of the variance in the data set and to group households
into similar groups. These results are then compared with the outcome of work front
participation.
Overall, the combination of probit and factor analyses proved successful in identifying
households that were likely to have joined the work front in the past. The similarity of
results from the probit and factor analysis supported the results. Additionally, variables
identified as important determinants of vulnerability to droughts in interviews and the
literature proved to be significant statistically. These key variables include on-farm
production, non-farm income, particularly pensions, irrigation and plot size. |
| Appears in Collections: | Natural Resources and Environment, School of (SNRE)
Dissertations and Theses (Ph.D. and Master's)
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| Brant_thesis.pdf | | 426Kb | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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