Is the U.S. on the path to the lowest motor vehicle fatalities in decades?

Abstract

Trends in U.S. motor vehicle fatalities, gasoline sales, and distance driven were examined for 12 months from May 2007 through April 2008. The results show substantial year-to-year reductions in motor vehicle fatalities during this time period that cannot be fully explained by the reductions in gasoline sales and distance driven. This is especially the case for the latest two months examined (March and April 2008). Here, the reductions in motor vehicle fatalities averaged 20%, while the reductions in gasoline sales and distance driven were in low single-digits. Consequently, it appears that a major shift in driver behavior might be occurring. This shift may involve disproportionate reductions in distance driven for more risky driving conditions and for drivers with less income (who tend to have higher crash rates), as well as possible reductions in speeds as a means of increasing fuel economy. Should the March and April 2008 trends continue, the 2008 annual fatalities would drop to under 40,000 for the first time since 1961.