Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan

Abstract

Recent research has shown that, once the long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in recessions. In the present work the comovements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations due to trends, series were detrended either with the Hodrick-Prescott filter or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, in Japan general mortality and age-specific death rates tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, both for males and females. The effect is slightly stronger for males, and particularly noticeable in those aged 45–64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility, making up about 41% of total mortality, tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, and deaths attributed to diabetes and hypertensive disease, making up about 4% of total mortality, fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don’t show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy.