Decision Support for Optimal Adaptation of Product and Supply Chain Systems based on Real Options Theory

Abstract

In order to remain profitable in the highly competitive global market, a manufacturing enterprise is expected to proactively adapt itself in anticipation of unplanned, but foreseeable high impact events. This paper presents a decision model for optimal adaptation of product and supply chain systems subject to sudden, severe changes in the operating environment. Extending our previous work, decision-tree based framework is developed for optimally choosing design-supplier alternatives in multi-product, multi-echelon product and supply chain systems based on the real options theory. A case study on a two-component, two-echelon supply chain is presented which highlights unique characteristics of product quality as compared to cost and time.