Climate Mapping in the Great Lakes Region as a Means for Inter-Urban Collaboration in Climate Adaptation Planning

Abstract

There is a major disconnect between climate scientists and city planners. Accessing climate data generally requires specialized training that most urban planners do not have. Therefore, planners depend on scientists to translate the data into projected climate impacts. Fine scale climate mapping that helps translate climate data into impacts on cities could assist in the climate adaptation planning process by eliminating the need for urban planners to make this translation for themselves. This is especially significant in the Great Lakes region, where the unique geography creates many small microclimates that are not represented in broad summary documents such as the IPCC. Instead, these reports aggregate the microclimates into one set of impacts, calling the region simply “The Midwest.” This project attempts to define a set of climate zones in the Great Lakes region that capture the unique microclimates, and statistically establish the homogeneity of each zone across samples of cities. These zones could become a basis of collaboration between cities with existing climate adaptation plans and those looking for inspiration for their own plans. Using statistically downscaled climate model projections, a second set of maps tracks how these zones shift over time in a changing climate. Additionally, planners in the Great Lakes Region were interviewed to assess what kind of data they find to be most useful, and to gain feedback on how this method can best benefit them. The planners expressed need for climate information that is precise, relevant to their city’s unique situation, and offers “on the ground” impacts and response strategies. This method addresses this need by encouraging efficient use of existing information for use in the planning process. The maps produced in this paper provide recommendations for inter-municipal collaboration to share relevant strategies among cities facing similar climate impacts. This helps cities help themselves without specifically commissioning climate experts, thereby reducing extraneous expenditure and redundancy of research.