Economic and Historical Perspectives on Stationarity, Structural Change and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Long-Term North American Professional Sports Attendance.

Abstract

The following work extends the breakpoint literature regarding annual attendance and the impact of outcome uncertainty at the aggregate level to the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League as well as at the team level in these three leagues and Major League Baseball. Attendance series for each league under consideration are not stationary overall but are stationary with breakpoints. However, evidence for the presence of a unit root—with or without breaks—is mixed across teams within and between North American leagues. Break points correspond in believable ways to historical occurrences in these leagues and the cities in which many of the franchises reside. Ultimately, the impact of competitive balance varies across both leagues and teams with respect to the time path of stadium attendance, with mixed evidence for Rottenberg’s uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. I present implications of breaks and balance effects and suggest future research on attendance estimation in North American professional sports, including further econometric treatment for a fully specified model of long-term stadium attendance that may be censored due to sellouts.