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 \centerline{\big SOLSTICE:}

 \centerline{\bf WINTER, 1993}

 \centerline{\bf Volume IV, Number 2}

 \centerline{\bf Institute of Mathematical Geography}

 \centerline{\bf Ann Arbor, Michigan}
 \centerline{\bf SOLSTICE}
 \line{Founding Editor--in--Chief: 
      {\bf Sandra Lach Arlinghaus} \hfil}
 \line{Institute of Mathematical Geography \hfil}
 \centerline{\bf EDITORIAL BOARD}
 \line{{\bf Geography} \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Michael Goodchild},
        University of California, Santa Barbara. \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Daniel A. Griffith},
        Syracuse University. \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Jonathan D. Mayer},
        University of Washington;
        joint appointment in School of Medicine.\hfil}
 \line{{\bf John D. Nystuen},
        University of Michigan.\hfil}
 \line{{\bf Mathematics} \hfil}
 \line{{\bf William C. Arlinghaus},
        Lawrence Technological University. \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Neal Brand},
        University of North Texas. \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Kenneth H. Rosen},
        A. T. \& T. Bell Laboratories. \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Engineering Applications} \hfil}
 \line{{\bf William D. Drake},
        University of Michigan, \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Education} \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Frederick L. Goodman},
        University of Michigan, \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Business} \hfil}
 \line{{\bf Robert F. Austin, Ph.D.} \hfil}
 \line{President, Austin Communications Education Services \hfil}
       The purpose of {\sl Solstice\/} is to promote  interaction
 between geography and mathematics.   Articles in which  elements
 of   one  discipline  are used to shed light on  the  other  are
 particularly sought.   Also welcome,  are original contributions
 that are purely geographical or purely mathematical.   These may
 be  prefaced  (by editor or author) with  commentary  suggesting
 directions  that  might  lead toward  the  desired  interaction.
 Individuals  wishing to submit articles,  either short or full--
 length,  as well as contributions for regular  features,  should
 send  them,  in triplicate,  directly to the  Editor--in--Chief.
 Contributed  articles  will  be refereed by  geographers  and/or
 mathematicians.   Invited articles will be screened by  suitable
 members of the editorial board.  IMaGe is open to having authors
 suggest, and furnish material for, new regular features.  

 The opinions expressed are those of the authors, alone, and the
 authors alone  are responsible for the accuracy of the facts in
 the articles. 
 \noindent {\bf Send all correspondence to:
 Sandra Arlinghaus,  2790 Briarcliff, Ann Arbor MI 48105.
 Suggested form for citation.   If  standard  referencing  to the
 hardcopy in the  IMaGe Monograph Series is not used (although we
 suggest that reference  to that  hardcopy be included along with
 reference  to  the  e-mailed  copy  from which  the hard copy is
 produced), then we suggest the following  format for citation of
 the electronic copy.  Article,  author, publisher (IMaGe) -- all
 the usual--plus a notation as to the time marked electronically, 
 by the process of transmission,  at the  top  of the  recipients
 copy.   Note  when  it was sent from Ann Arbor (date and time to
 the  second)  and  when  you  received  it (date and time to the
 second)  and  the  field characters covered by the article  (for
 example FC=21345 to FC=37462).
       This  document is produced using the typesetting  program,
 {\TeX},  of Donald Knuth and the American Mathematical  Society.
 Notation  in  the electronic file is in accordance with that  of
 Knuth's   {\sl The {\TeX}book}.   The program is downloaded  for
 hard copy for on The University of Michigan's Xerox 9700 laser--
 printing  Xerox  machine,  using IMaGe's commercial account with 
 that University.
 Unless otherwise noted, all regular ``features"  are  written by
 the Editor--in--Chief.
       {\nn  Upon final acceptance,  authors will work with IMaGe
 to    get  manuscripts   into  a  format  well--suited  to   the
 requirements   of {\sl Solstice\/}.  Typically,  this would mean
 that  authors    would  submit    a  clean  ASCII  file  of  the
 manuscript,  as well as   hard copy,  figures,  and so forth (in
 camera--ready form).     Depending on the nature of the document
 and   on   the  changing    technology  used  to  produce   {\sl
 Solstice\/},   there  may  be  other    requirements  as   well.
 Currently,  the  text  is typeset using   {\TeX};  in that  way,
 mathematical formul{\ae} can be transmitted   as ASCII files and
 downloaded   faithfully   and   printed   out.    The     reader
 inexperienced  in the use of {\TeX} should note that  this    is
 not  a ``what--you--see--is--what--you--get"  display;  however,
 we  hope  that  such readers find {\TeX} easier to  learn  after
 exposure to {\sl Solstice\/}'s e-files written using {\TeX}!}
       {\nn  Copyright  will  be taken out in  the  name  of  the
 Institute of Mathematical Geography, and authors are required to
 transfer  copyright  to  IMaGe as a  condition  of  publication.
 There are no page charges; authors will be given  permission  to
 make reprints from the electronic file,  or to have IMaGe make a
 single master reprint for a nominal fee dependent on  manuscript
 length.   Hard  copy of {\sl Solstice\/} is  available at a cost
 of \$15.95 per year (plus  shipping  and  handling; hard copy is
 issued once yearly, in the Monograph series of the  Institute of
 Mathematical Geography.   Order directly from  IMaGe.  It is the
 desire of IMaGe to offer electronic copies to interested parties
 for free.  Whether  or  not  it  will  be  feasible  to continue
 distributing  complimentary electronic files remains to be seen.  
 Presently {\sl Solstice\/} is funded by IMaGe and by a  generous
 donation of computer time from a member  of the Editorial Board.
 Thank  you  for  participating  in  this  project  focusing   on 
 environmentally-sensitive publishing.}
 \copyright Copyright, December, 1993 by the
 Institute of Mathematical Geography.
 All rights reserved.
 {\bf ISBN: 1-877751-55-3}
 {\bf ISSN: 1059-5325} 
 \centerline{\bf TABLE OF CONTENT}
 \noindent{\bf  2.  PRESS CLIPPINGS---SUMMARY}
 \noindent{\bf  3.  ARTICLE}

 \noindent{\bf Villages in Transition: 
 Elevated Risk of Micronutrient Deficiency}

 \noindent {\bf William D. Drake, S. Pak, I. Tarwotjo, Muhilal, 
                 J. Gorstein, R. Tilden}.


   Objectives of Study;
   The Setting -- The Eastern Islands of Indonesia;
   Nutritional Problems of the Area;
   The Study;
   Data Processing and Analysis;

   Relative Health Risks at the Community Level;
   Elevated Risk for Villages in Transition;
   Classifying Villages According to their Transition Status;

   Vitamin A Deficiency;
   Iodine Deficiency;
   Iron Deficiency;
   Intestinal Worms;

   Determination of overlap in risk;

   Summary of Evidence for Elevated Risk in Transitional Villages;
   Policy Implications;
   Implementing a Targeting Strategy.

 \noindent{\bf 4.  DOWNLOADING OF SOLSTICE}

 \noindent{\bf 5.  INDEX to Volumes I (1990),  II (1991),  
 III (1992), and IV.1 (1993) of {\sl Solstice}.}

 \noindent{\bf 6.  OTHER PUBLICATIONS OF IMaGe }

                   INVOLVING {\sl Solstice\/} BOARD MEMBERS,
 \centerline{\bf 1.  WELCOME TO NEW READERS}

 Welcome to new subscribers!   We  hope  you  enjoy participating 
 in  this   means   of journal  distribution.   Instructions  for
 downloading  the typesetting have  been  repeated in this issue,
 near the end.  They are specific to the  {\TeX}  installation at
 The University of Michigan, but apparently they have been helpful 
 in suggesting to others the sorts of commands that might be used 
 on their own  particular  mainframe installation of {\TeX}.  New
 subscribers might wish to  note that  the  electronic  files are
 typeset files---the  mathematical notation  will  print  out  as 
 typeset notation.  For example,
 when  properly downloaded, will print out a typeset summation as
 i  goes  from  one  to  n, as  a  centered  display on the page. 
 Complex  notation  is  no  barrier  to  this   form  of  journal


 Many  thanks  to  the  members  of  the  Editorial Board of {\sl
 Solstice\/}.   Some  of  them have refereed articles and offered 
 suggestions, as have others.  Thanks to all.    We send our very
 best wishes to Michael Goodchild.
 In this issue, we announce the availability of  {\sl Solstice\/}
 on  a  GOPHER.  Many  thanks  to Bruce Long of the Department of
 Mathematics  of  Arizona  State University for his initiative in
 putting  this  journal  on their GOPHER (PI.LA.ASU.EDU).  It was
 kind of him to think of {\sl Solstice\/}  and  his  constructive 
 actions are greatly appreciated. 

 So,  too,  are  those  of Eugene Fosnight of The  University  of 
 Michigan,  School of Natural Resources and  Environment, for his
 aid in technical matters.  Thanks, Gene!
 \centerline{\bf 2.  PRESS CLIPPINGS---SUMMARY}

 Brief  write-ups  about {\sl Solstice\/}  have  appeared  in the
 following publications:

 \noindent 1.  {\bf Science}, ``Online Journals"  Briefings.  
 [by Joseph Palca]
 29 November 1991.  Vol. 254.

 \noindent 2. {\bf Science News}, ``Math for all seasons"
 by Ivars Peterson, January 25, 1992, Vol. 141, No. 4.

 \noindent 3.  {\bf Newsletter of the Association of American
 Geographers}, June, 1992.

 \noindent 4. {\bf American Mathematical Monthly},
 ``Telegraphic Reviews" --- mentioned as
 ``one of the World's first electronic journals using {\TeX}," 
 September, 1992.

 \noindent 5. {\bf Harvard Technology Window}, 1993.

 \noindent 6.  {\bf Graduating Engineering Magazine}, 1993.

 \noindent 7.  {\bf On Internet}, 1994.

 If  you  have  read about {\sl Solstice\/} elsewhere, please let
 us know the correct citations (and add to those above).  Thanks.
 In addition, {\sl Solstice\/} is an object of study in  at least
 one Ph.D. dissertation.  We are happy to share information  with
 concerning electronic journal  production and are delighted when
 others share with us, as well.  

 Publications of the Institute of Mathematical Geography have,
 in addition, been reviewed or noted in 
 1.  {\sl The Professional Geographer\/} published
 by the Association of American Geographers;

 2.  The {\sl Urban Specialty Group Newsletter\/}
 of the Association of American Geographers;

 3.  {\sl Mathematical Reviews\/} published by the
 American Mathematical Society;

 4.  {\sl The American Mathematical Monthly\/} published
 by the Mathematical Association of America;

 5.  {\sl Zentralblatt\/} fur Mathematik,  Springer-Verlag, Berlin

 6.  {\sl Mathematics Magazine\/}, published by the Mathematical
 Association of America.

 7.  {\sl Newsletter\/} of the Association of American Geographer.

 8.  {\sl Journal of The Regional Science Association\/}.

 9.  {\sl Journal of the American Statistical Association\/}.

 \centerline{\bf Villages in Transition:}
 \centerline{\bf Elevated Risk of Micronutrient Deficiency}
 \centerline{William D. Drake
            (author to whom comment should be directed)}
 \centerline{Community Systems Foundation, Ann Arbor, MI USA}
 \centerline{School of Natural Resources and Environment,
             University of Michigan}
 \centerline{Department of International Health,
             School of Public Health, 
             University of Michigan}
 \centerline{S. Pak}
 \centerline{Community Systems Foundation, Ann Arbor, MI USA}
 \centerline{Department of International Health,
             School of Public Health, 
             University of Michigan}
 \centerline{I. Tarwotjo}
 \centerline{Nutrition Directorate, Ministry of Health, 
             Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia}
 \centerline{Center for Research and Development in Nutrition,
             Bogor, Indonesia}
 \centerline{ J. Gorstein}
 \centerline{ Community Systems Foundation, Ann Arbor, MI USA}
 \centerline{ Department of International Health,
              School of Public Health
              University of Michigan}
 \centerline{ R. Tilden}
 \centerline{ Department of International Health,
              School of Public Health,
              University of Michigan}
 \noindent Based on a presentation at the International  Vitamin A
 Consultative   Group   Meeting,    Human   Nutrition   Institute,
 International Life Sciences Institute, 8-12 March, 1993,  Arusha,
 \noindent{\bf ABSTRACT}

     Some researchers have suggested  that  as villages  move from
 traditional living patterns emphasizing self-sufficiency, to ones
 featuring  economic development, there is a vulnerable transition
 period in which families of the community are at  greater  health
 risk.  This elevated risk  results  from  many  factors  such  as
 employment  volatility,  changes  in  food  consumption patterns, 
 composition  of  the  extended  family,  temporary migration, and
 child rearing behavior.  Elevated risk,  if present, would strike
 hard at  children  who are  most  vulnerable  and readily reflect 
 adverse changes in family status.

     Analysis  of  data  from  the  Eastern  Islands  of Indonesia
 supports  this  hypothesis  of  elevated  risk during transition.
 Villages  in  the  study  area  were  ranked  by a classification
 system used in Indonesia to measure level of  development ranging
 from    traditional    agricultural    villages,     to   modern,
 market-oriented  villages.   This  ranking  system  not  only  is
 related  to  the  amount  of  infrastructure   available  in  the 
 community,  but  also  includes many other factors.  The approach
 followed takes advantage  of the multitude of parameters measured
 in this study by portraying  joint  risk of vitamin A deficiency,
 iodine deficiency disorders,  iron  deficiency  anemia as well as
 other health  indicators  such  as measles, worm infestation, and
 diarrheal  diseases.   By  examining  community-level prevalences
 for all three micronutrient deficiencies  this methodology offers
 unique opportunity  to  study  how  the risk for these conditions
 covary  at  the  community  level,  and  thus  provides important
 information  for  targeting  communities  with integrated control
 program activities.  Amongst all villages  with  high prevalences
 of any of the three micronutrient deficiencies,  there is about a
 70\%  `overlap' in  risk  between  at  least  two  of  the  three
 micronutrients,  with 22\% of the villages being at high risk for
 all three micronutrient deficiencies.

     Villages in transition are  shown to have  higher prevalences 
 of total  goiter  rate,  lower  mean  hemoglobin  levels,  higher 
 helminthic infection rates, and higher prevalences of wasting and
 underweight malnutrition, all at statistically significant levels.
 They also  tend  to have slightly higher prevalences of low serum
 retinol, although not statistically significant within the sample
 sizes in this study.   While focusing upon villages in transition
 is but one type of targeting,  there  is a qualitative difference
 between  this  one  and  other  targeting  strategies.   In  this
 instance  the  targeting  can  be based upon {\sl anticipating\/}
 the risk rather than reacting to risk estimates based on surveys.
 Because  the  government  is  both planner and resource allocator
 for  its  development  programs,  difficulties experienced during
 movement  through  a  transition  period  can  be  monitored  and
 dampened  by  allocating  special  integrated  activities  to the
 region receiving development assistance.
 \noindent{\bf INTRODUCTION}
 \noindent{\bf Objectives of Study}

      As governments strive to maximize the effectiveness of their
 limited resources, the issue of identifying and  targeting  those
 most  in  need  of  health  and  nutrition   assistance   becomes 
 paramount.  This paper presents a unique approach to  determining
 these  needs  for  assistance.   The  approach  combines   recent
 theoretical  developments  in the field of population-environment
 dynamics with  general  resource allocation strategies to suggest
 a method for  identifying  high-risk population groups.   As part
 of  this  inquiry,  measurements  of  the extent of overlap among
 risk  factors  is  made  which  can  be  utilized  to improve the
 efficiency  of  program  implementation.  Perhaps most important,
 the  methodology  which  is  proposed   permits   governments  to
 anticipate  difficult  problems  so  that  preventive rather than
 solely curative measures can be taken in a timely manner.

      This  paper  begins  by  describing the setting in which the
 study was undertaken.  Next,  the  theoretical model is presented
 along  with  the  possible  applicability  of  the  model to real
 world  situations  at  hand.   Third,  data  is used to determine
 whether  the  model  has   predictive   capacity,   and   finally
 conclusions and policy  implications  stemming  from the analyses 
 are presented.
 \noindent{\bf The Setting:  The Eastern Islands of Indonesia}

      In 1990 the Government of Indonesia commissioned the  Center
 for  Nutritional  Research and Development of Bogor, Indonesia to
 undertake  a  study  on  the  health  conditions  of  the Eastern
 Islands.  Community Systems Foundation of Ann Arbor, Michigan was
 asked  to  provide technical assistance through  the A.I.D. VITAL
 Field  Support  Project.  The Government was especially concerned
 with  deficiencies  in  micronutrients that were expected to be a
 strong contributing factor to poor health status of the  children
 in those islands.

     A cross-sectional prevalence study was carried out in October
 1990 through June 1991.  The purpose  of the study was to  gather
 data on the prevalence and distribution of specific micronutrient
 deficiencies,  including  vitamin  A   deficiency   (VAD),   iron
 deficiency anemia (IDA), iodine deficiency disorders  (IDD),  and
 protein  energy  malnutrition  (PEM).   It  was planned that this
 information  would  be  used  for  assistance in the targeting of 
 specific  nutrition  and  health  interventions  in  these remote
 islands.   The  study  provides  the  first  substantial  body of 
 information regarding  the  prevalence of these conditions in the
 Eastern Islands.

     The Eastern Island provinces of Indonesia include the islands
 east of Java and Kalimatan (Borneo), the island of  Sulewesi (the
 Celebes), the islands of the province of Maluku,  the  islands of
 Irian Jaya, Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB), Nusa Tenggara Timor (NTT),
 and Timor Timur (Tim Tim).  However, only  Maluku,  NTT, Tim Tim,
 and Irian Jaya were selected for this study  as  these  provinces
 were not fully represented in earlier surveys.

      Most of  the provinces are culturally distinct from the rest
 of Indonesia,  as  well  as  from  each other.  Dietary patterns, 
 terrain, and climate also differ, leading to a belief that causes
 of malnutrition may differ from the rest of the country and among
 the four provinces.

      Irian  Jaya,  the  easternmost  island,  is   populated   by
 subsistence  hill  tribes  whose  inter-tribal  warfare  has kept
 development  efforts  at  a minimum until they were released from
 Dutch  Colonial  domination  in  the  early  1960s.   In the last
 thirty  years,  the development of roads, communication networks,
 construction  of  schools  and  health  centers have done much to
 bring  this province more into the mainstream of Indonesian life. 
 However,  the  population  and  their  lifestyle  is  still quite 
 different  from  most of the country.  Through the transmigration
 of  groups  from  Java to Irian Jaya, the population is now quite
 diverse  representing  a wide range of socioeconomic and cultural

      Timor Timur (Tim Tim) is an even more recent addition to the
 Republic  of Indonesia.  Until 1974 it was under the jurisdiction 
 of Portugal.  In  that  year, Portugal divested itself of all its
 colonial  possessions,  including  Tim  Tim.   Tim  Tim  was then 
 integrated into the Republic of Indonesia,  and for several years
 specific  pockets  of  resistance  to  this  integration made the 
 expansion  of  governmental  social welfare programs problematic.
 Under the Portuguese, very  little effort was made to educate the
 rural population, and semi-feudal political systems kept power in
 the  hands  of  a  few  rich  Portuguese  families  living in the 
 capital, Dili.  The  results  of this survey suggest that Tim Tim
 has  made  progress  and is in the process of expanding its rural
 social welfare systems.

      The province of Maluku is the location of the original spice
 islands for which the European countries originally set  sail  to
 the Orient.  Nutmeg and mace originated from the island  of Banda
 (which is in this province), and cloves were found on  the island
 of  Ambon.   During  the  16th  century  this  area was a site of
 confrontation  between  the  Portuguese,  the   first   Europeans
 to settle in the area, and  the  Dutch.  Different islands in the
 province still  display  characteristics  which have been adopted
 from these two western European nations.

      Nusa  Tenggara  Timor  (NTT),  like  Maluku,  is  one of the 
 original  provinces  of  Indonesia.  It has a dryer  climate than
 most of the country.  Unlike the other eastern  provinces, it has
 characteristics  which  are  similar  to those of the rest of the
 country,  and  its  level  of  participation  in  social  welfare
 programs is the highest of all the provinces in the survey.
 \noindent{\bf Nutritional problems of the area}
 \noindent{\sl   Vitamin A deficiency \/} --- Vitamin A deficiency
 has  long  been  known  to  occur  in  Indonesia.   Consequently,
 Indonesia has been one of the leaders in the world in research of
 this important problem.  Blindness due to xerophthalmia  had been
 the primary  justification  for  these  investments.  However, in
 1985, studies provided some evidence that  sub-clinical VAD, even
 when not associated with nutrition blindness,  leads to increased
 risk of mortality, thereby introducing and additional impetus for
 its control.

      The  island  of  Ambon  in  Maluku  was included in the 1978
 National  Nutritional  Blindness  Survey,  but  the  other   four
 provinces  were  not  surveyed  because  of  logistic   and  cost
 constraints.   The  island  of Biak was recognized as having high 
 levels of xerophthalmia  in 1981, due to the energetic efforts of
 the head of Kabupaten  medical  services.   It was suggested that
 xerophthalmia might also be a problem in NTT in the early 1980s.
 \noindent{\sl Nutritional Anemia\/} ---  Of all the micronutrient
 deficiencies,  nutritional  anemia  is   undoubtedly   the   most 
 widespread.   However,  its  distribution  and magnitude is least
 known  throughout  the  country.  Young children and pregnant and
 lactating  women  are the most likely to be at risk.  Nutritional
 anemia  has  been  associated  with  impaired cognitive and motor
 development  of  children,  low  birthweight,  and increased risk
 for mortality in  pregnant  women as well as reduced productivity
 in adult males.  Data generated  from  the present study provides
 the  first  population-based  prevalence  information  on  anemia
 available in the country.
 \noindent{\sl  Protein Energy Malnutrition \/} --- Protein Energy
 Malnutrition  (PEM)  is  a  problem  associated  with  poor  food
 availability  and  excessive  infection.   It  is  identified  in
 children who are short for their age (stunted) and/or underweight
 for their age,  and  in  some cases with diminished body mass for
 their  stature  (wasted).   The  method  by  which  PEM  has been
 assessed  in  this  study  is through anthropometry.  The primary
 measurements  taken were the height, weight, and age of preschool
 children.  These  different  measures  were then combined to form
 three  indices:  
 weight-for-age, height-for-age, and weight-for-height. 
 Height-for-age  is  generally  considered  a  measure   of   food
 availability  and  overall  socioeconomic  conditions  during the
 development of the child, while  weight-for-height  (body mass on
 the frame of the child) is considered to better reflect insult to
 the  child  either  due to illness or recent acute food shortage. 
 Weight-for-age  is  a  combination of these two indices, although
 limited  since  it fails to distinguish, thin children from short
 children with  adequate muscle  and fat  in the classification of
 the undernourished.
 \noindent{ \sl  Iodine  Deficiency  Disorders \/}  ---    Iodine
 deficiency  disorders  are  a  group of health and developmental
 problems associated with inadequate iodine intake. Historically,
 the  magnitude  of  this  problem  has been measured by palpable 
 goiter  rates,  which  is  the most obvious and specific symptom
 associated with low iodine  intake.  Among the other symptoms of
 IDD, cretinism (mental and  developmental sub-normalcy) is found
 in areas  in  which  iodine  deficiency  is endemic, and a whole 
 spectrum  of  more  subtle symptoms also have been attributed to
 insufficient  iodine  nutriture.    These  include  reduced  IQ, 
 deafness,   and   delayed  motor  skill  development.    Several 
 biochemical  parameters  are  sometimes  used   to   assess  the
 magnitude of IDD including:  urinary iodine, thyroid stimulating
 hormone (TSH), and levels of other thyroid hormones (T3 and T4).
 \noindent{\bf The Study}
      The study focuses on vitamin A deficiency (VAD) in children
 in  the  age  group 0 to 6 years.  Ophthalmological examinations
 were  carried  out  to look for clinical eye signs of VAD  Blood
 collections were  performed for the measurement of serum vitamin
 A  in  a  11\% subsample.   From blood samples taken, hemoglobin
 levels  were  also  assessed.   This same group of children were
 examined for protein energy malnutrition.

      Pregnant  women  in  the  same  communities were tested for 
 anemia.   Iodine  deficiency  disorders  (IDD)  were  studied in
 elementary  school  children  through  examination  for palpable
 goiter  as  well  as  through  assessing  iodine levels in urine
 specimens   collected   from   a  10\%  subsample.    From  each
 sub-province (kecamatan) surveyed,  two  elementary schools were
 chosen which  were  located close to the village and census unit
 (wilayah)  in  order  to  examine  children 0-6 years along with
 pregnant women.

      Every pregnant woman chosen in the survey area was examined
 for  general  health  conditions, goiter, and hemoglobin.  Urine
 samples to check for iodine levels were not taken.
 \noindent{\bf Data Processing and Analysis}

     The data was converted to electronic form using a customized
 computer  and  entry  program  equipped  with built-in checks to 
 minimize data entry error.  In addition, several thorough rounds
 of  data  checking  and cleaning were carried out, to ensure the
 internal validity of the data.
     Table  1  lists  the variables used in the present analysis.  
 Using  FoxPro  Version  2.0  and  SPSS-PC  Version  3.0,   these
 variables  were  created by aggregating household data up to the
 village  level to derive community-level variables. From the 245
 villages,  56.3\% were accepted with loss due to missing values,
 leaving a  total of 138 villages included in the analysis.  Most
 of this data  loss  is due to the fact that iodine deficiency in
 schoolchildren was measured only in those villages with schools.
 \noindent{\bf TABLE 1}

 \noindent   All data were gathered for preschool children unless
 otherwise indicated.
 \settabs\+\qquad&Variable\qquad&Prevalence of Xerophthalmia
            (X1B)--clinical sign of VAD\cr %sample line
 \+& MN-VITA   &Mean Serum Vitamin A Levels\cr
 \+& MN-HEMO   &Mean Serum Hemoglobin Levels\cr
 \+& CASES     &Prevalence of Xerophthalmia (X1B)--clinical sign of VAD\cr
 \+& MEAS      &Prevalence of Measles in the last 3 months\cr
 \+& POX       &Prevalence of Chicken Pox in the last 3 months\cr
 \+& DIA       &Prevalence of Severe Diarrhea in the last 3 months\cr
 \+& WORM      &Prevalence of Parasitic Infestation in last 3 months\cr
 \+& MN-WHZ    &Mean Weight for Height z-score (wasting)\cr
 \+& STUN      &Prevalence of moderate Stunting\cr
 \+& UNDERWT   &Prevalence of moderate Underweight\cr
 \+& WAST      &Prevalence of moderate Wasting\cr
 \+& TGR       &Total Goiter Rate (among schoolchildren)\cr
 \+& VGR       &Visible Goiter Rate (among schoolchildren)\cr
 \+& MN-BMI    &Mean Body Mass Index (among pregnant mothers)\cr
 \+& TGR-M     &Total Goiter Rate (among pregnant mothers)\cr
 \+& VGR-M     &Visible Goiter Rate (among pregnant mothers)\cr
 \+& ED-HH     &Mean Education level of head of household\cr
 \+& ED-MOM    &Mean Education level of mother\cr

      These continuous variables were chosen from  the  dataset to
 depict  the  nutrition  and health of the sample population.  The
 first  two  variables,  MN-VITA  and  MN-HEMO represent sera data
 collected  in  preschoolers in Eastern Island villages from which
 the  serum  vitamin  A  levels  and  serum hemoglobin levels were
 assayed.   These  data  were  aggregated  to the village level as
 mean serum vitamin A and hemoglobin levels.


 \noindent{\bf Relative Health Risks at the Community Level}

      The determination of the prevalence of nutriture  deficiency
 in  the  Eastern  Islands  marks  the  first stage in devising an 
 effective  intervention.    Another  critical   element  is   the 
 determination  of  the extent to which assistance can be targeted
 to high-risk  populations.  The findings of this survey show wide 
 variation  in  health status among provinces and, more important,
 within  each  province.  Such variation implies that considerable
 benefits might accrue from targeting -- provided that a practical
 method  could  be  devised.  If the actual identification of high 
 risk  groups  for  targeting  is  costly, the relative gains from
 targeting  are  lost.   For  example, in most settings, it is not
 practical  to  conduct  a  careful  household survey to determine
 relative  risk.   Other  less expensive means must be found which 
 can  act  as  a  reasonable  surrogate  for  these  rigorous  but 
 expensive  approaches.   Thus,  the  Eastern  Islands  Prevalence
 Survey  was designed, in part, to test the effectiveness of using
 variables  collected  at  the  {\sl desa\/}  (village)  level  to 
 estimate  {\sl household\/}  health  risk.   The  question is not
 whether   perfect   correspondence  exists  between  village  and
 household but rather,  are  there  easily  gathered village-level 
 variables  which  do  a  reasonable  job  in ranking regions.  If
 village  estimates can be used to indicate {\sl relative\/} risk, 
 then  a  targeting  strategy,  at  the sub-province (Kabupaten or
 Kecematan)  level  may be practical.  On the other hand, if there
 is  not  a  strong  correspondence,  practical  targeting is less 

      A sequence of steps was undertaken to examine this question.
 First,  variables gathered at the community level were related to
 the average nutritional status for  individuals  and other health
 indicators  of  households  in  the  desa.  Next, the strength of 
 association  between  household  and desa-level data was assessed
 using  Pearson correlation coefficients and analysis of variance.
 The  final  objective  was  to select a subset of variables which
 could  be gathered at the desa level {\bf and} which would relate
 to  household  health  conditions.   A  wide  range  of variables
 gathered  at both the household and community level were analyzed
 for  their  targeting effectiveness.  These results are presented
 elsewhere   ({   \sl  Eastern  Islands  Micronutrient  Deficiency
 Prevalence  Study\/},  Center  for  Research  and  Development in
 Nutrition,  Nutrition  Directorate,  Ministry of Health, Republic
 of Indonesia,  October  1991).  In  this paper we will explore an
 alternative  (or  supplementary)  scheme for determining relative
 risk  --  one  based  on emerging theoretical developments in the
 field of population-environment dynamics.
 \noindent{\bf Elevated Risk for Villages in Transition}
    Recent research suggests that there is a special vulnerability
 as a community moves from relative  traditional  living  patterns
 emphasizing   self-sufficiency,   to  ones   featuring   economic
 development  (see  Drake,  W. D.  ``Toward  Building A Theory  of 
 Population  Environment  Dynamics:   A  Family  of  Transitions,"
 {\sl Population-Environment Dynamics\/},  University  of Michigan
 Press,  Ann Arbor,  1993).  The theory asserts that movement from
 traditional to ``developed" status is characterized by the region
 passing  through  a series of transitions in each of many sectors 
 of  its  society.   For example, one well known transition is the 
 demographic  transition.  At the onset of this transition, births
 and  deaths  are  both  high and are in relative equilibrium with
 each other.   Historically, births exceed deaths by small amounts
 so   that   the  total  population  rises  only  very  gradually.  
 Occasionally,  famine  or  epidemic  forces  a  decline  in total
 population but in general, changes in rates are slow.  During the
 transition,  however,  death rates drop dramatically, usually due 
 to  improvement  in the health condition of the population.  This
 change  in health is caused by many, often interrelating factors. 
 After some time  lag, the birth rate begins to drop and generally
 declines until  it  is in approximate balance with the death rate

    But there are in fact many similar transitions each related to
 different  sectors  of the community.  This dynamic is visualized
 as  a  {\bf  family}  of  transitions.   That  is,  not  only has
 demographic  and epidemiologic transition been described but also
 deforestation,  toxicity,  agricultural,  energy,  education, and
 urbanization  transitions  as  well as many others.  It is argued
 that for each transition there is a critical period when  society
 is especially vulnerable.  During that period,  rates  of  change
 are high, societal adaptive capacity is limited,  in part  due to
 this  rapid  change,  and  there is a greater likelihood that key
 relationships  in  the  dynamic  become severely imbalanced.  The
 trajectory  that  a  community takes through a transition varies, 
 depending  upon  many  factors  operating  at  local and national
 levels.   Transitions  not  only  are occurring in many different
 sectors but also at  different scales, both temporal and spatial. 
 At   times,   a   community   experiences   several   transitions
 simultaneously,  which  can  raise  social  vulnerability as they
 amplify the effects of each other.

      It is beyond the scope of this paper to describe the details
 of  these  dynamics  except  to  note that for any given location 
 experiencing rapid modernization, such as a village in one of the
 Eastern  Island  Provinces  of  Indonesia,  it  is  reasonable to 
 conjecture  that  there  might  be  special  vulnerability (for a 
 comprehensive  description  of  the  transitions  existing  in  a 
 community, see {\sl ibid.\/}  301-355).   If this were true, then
 health indicators of {\sl at-riskness\/} might indicate magnified
 problems  in  those  villages  experiencing an overall transition 
 from  traditional  self-sufficiency  to relative modernity.  This
 elevated  risk,  it  is argued, results from many factors such as
 employment  volatility,  changes  in  food  consumption patterns,
 composition  of  the  extended  family,  temporary migration, and 
 child  rearing behavior.  Elevated risk, if present, would strike
 hard  at  children  who  are most vulnerable, and readily reflect
 adverse changes in family health status.

     It follows then, if transitional communities are experiencing
 vulnerability which then translates into  heightened child health
 at-riskness, a targeting strategy might  be devised based on some
 readily  available  community-level  indicator.  Such a targeting
 strategy might provide a practical policy tool.
 \noindent{\bf Classifying Villages According to Their Transition Status}
      Fortunately,  in  Indonesia  the  government  has  for years
 maintained  an  up-to-date  record  of the ``transitional" status
 of villages throughout the country.   Villages in the study area,
 like  all  other  parts  of  the  country,  have been ranked by a 
 classification system used to measure level of development.  This
 ranking  system  is  related  to  the  amount  of  infrastructure 
 available in the community but also includes many  other factors.
 The  village  scale  ranged  from  traditional   self-sufficiency
 (Pradesa)  to  modern  market  oriented  communities (Swasembada)
 (formal  village  classification  of villages was provided by the
 Indonesian  Government).   Pradesa  villages  (pre-villages)  are
 generally  located  in  remote regions and have relatively little
 contact  with  the  national  economy.   The  main  occupation is
 agriculture,  and  education  levels  are  very low.  Traditional
 custom has a dominant influence and these villages are considered
 ``traditional."  The  next  level of development is classified as
 Swadaya,  and  is still characterized by very strong influence of
 traditional  custom, ``$\ldots $ strong relations among villagers
 and social  control based on the family system."  Infrastructure,
 while more  advanced  than  Pradesa villages, is still relatively
 basic. Average education is low, communication and transportation
 are minimal, production methods traditional,  and  facilities for
 social activities rarely observed. The third level of development
 in  villages,  Swakarya,  shows  traditional  customs  further in
 transition.  Influences from outside are  observed in the village
 which  are  deemed  to ``$\ldots $ be changing ways of thinking." 
 Job opportunities are shifting from primary to secondary sectors. 
 Secondary  sector  here  is defined as small industry and crafts. 
 Traditional custom and  religion is  in transition, education and
 skill levels are judged  to  be  medium, communication and social
 facilities  increasing  to  a  ``$\ldots $  medium   level,"  and
 institutional  and  governmental  tasks  functioning  in  a  more
 developed manner.

      The  highest development classification level is Swasembada.
 ``Traditional  custom and religion is not influencing development
 $\ldots $,"  education  and  skill  of the villagers is high, and
 members  take  initiatives  and  responsibility for local action.
 Communication, productivity, marketing, and social facilities are
 above standard.  Village output/yield  in all sectors is high and
 job opportunities are mainly in  the ``third  sector" (commercial
 and service).

      In order  to  maximize the generality of the results of this
 study,  the  balance  of  this paper will use generic terminology
 when  labelling  villages.   Pradesa  villages  will  be   called
 traditional,   Swadaya  and  Swakarya  called  transitional   and
 Swasembada, modern or developed.

     If there is validity to the hypothesis that there is elevated
 risk during the time villages are going through a transition from
 traditional  to  developed status, then one might expect at least
 some health status  indicators  to change unfavorably during this
 period  (it  is  quite  possible  that,  due  to  low measurement
 specificity and sensitivity, indicators could show  no heightened
 at-riskness  during  transitional  periods  when,  in fact, there 
 were risks but the opposite is less likely to be true.)  Analysis
 of Eastern Islands data supports this hypothesis of elevated risk.

      However,  as  is  true  for  any study, association does not 
 necessarily mean causation. There are always possible alternative
 or competing explanations for the  cause of the observed outcome.
 In  the  case  of  this  analysis,  the  most  probable competing 
 explanation for elevated risk in  transitional  villages would be
 inherent differences among  villages which are unrelated to their
 level of development.  For  example, does village topography have
 an  effect  upon  the  outcome,  especially for health indicators 
 known to be related to geography such as iodine deficiency?

      Other  competing  explanations  know  to be related to child
 health  risk,  such as educational level of the head of household
 or of the mother are part of the fabric of a transitional village
 and, for our  purposes, do not need to be separated.  In fact, to
 a  large  degree,  they  define  the  heightened  at-riskness  of 
 transitional  villages.   Whenever  possible, we shall attempt to 
 provide  what  evidence  there  is  for  refuting  this competing
 explanation.   But  regardless  of  the  causes,  the  fact still
 remains that is associations exist, then an intervention strategy
 can be proposed which reflects this elevated risk,  regardless of
 its cause.

      Table  1  in  an earlier section, provides a listing of the
 available  health indicators which, while gathered in some cases 
 at the  individual  household  level, in all instances have been
 aggregated  to  the  village  level.  This  section presents the 
 results  of  analysis  for  the  major   indicators   available,
 organized  by  village  transitional  status.   It   should   be
 remembered  that  due  to data gathering protocol, the number of
 villages  available  for  analysis,  varies  by  each  indicator
 \noindent{\bf Undernutrition}

      A  sample of the nutritional status of preschool children in
 each  of  138 villages was taken during the course of this study.
 Height,  weight,  and  age  were  measured and key anthropometric
 indices of child nutriture were calculated and standardized using
 the NCHS reference standard.   Village  prevalence estimates were
 determined from  these  samples and related to village transition
 status.   Both  weight-for-height  (wasting)  and  weight-for-age
 showed  statistically  significant association with village type. 
 Weight-for-height  (a  measure  of stunting) was also at a higher
 rate  in  transitional  villages   although   not   statistically
 significant.   Figure  1  presents  the  prevalence of wasting by
 village  type.   Both  types  of transitional villages (early and
 late)  showed statistically significant higher malnutrition.  For
 the  purposes  of  presentation  in the figures that follow, both
 transitional types have been combined into one category.

 \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 1.} 
            Prevalence of Wasting by Village Type  (145 villages). 
 Three bars are displayed in this chart:  one for traditional, one
 for transitional, and one for modern villages.  The height of the
 bar measures  the percentage of prevalence (\% $<$ -2 S.D. NCHS).
 Traditional shows wasting of  5.6\%; transitional at 10.4\%; and,
 modern at 7.5\%.   The  source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence

 Figure 2  shows  the  prevalence  of underweight malnutrition for
 preschool  children  in  the  same  138  villages.   Transitional 
 villages  again  show  a higher risk for malnutrition.  Using the
 NCHS standard and a cut-pint of less than two standard deviations
 from  mean  values,   transitional  villages   experienced   48\% 
 malnutrition  while  traditional  and modern villages showed 35\%
 and  41\%  respectively.   These  differences  were statistically
 significant at the p=.01 levels (p=.0065 and .0009 respectively).

 \midinsert\vskip4.5in  {\bf Figure 2.}   
              Prevalence  of  Underweight  by  Village  Type  (145
 villages).  Three  bars  are  displayed  in  this chart:  one for
 traditional, one  for transitional,  and one for modern villages. 
 The  height  of  the  bar  measures  the percentage of prevalence
 (\% $<$ -2 S.D. NCHS).  Traditional shows  underweight of 35.7\%;
 transitional at 46.8\%; and, modern at 41.2\%. The source is 1991
 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey.
 \noindent{\bf Vitamin A Deficiency}

      Two indicators of vitamin A deficiency were measured  during
 this  study;  mean  serum  vitamin  A  level  and  prevalence  of
 xerophthalmia  as  indicated by detection of bitot's spots (X1B).
 Because of an extremely low prevalence of xerophthalmia, the only
 variable amenable to analysis of transitional villages is vitamin
 A serum levels.   Figure  3  presents the prevalence of low serum
 retinol in  preschool  children  by  village type.  The cut-point 
 used  to  define community at-riskness is the WHO recommended 5\% 
 of  the  population  with  serum  retinol levels  $<$  10 mcg/dl. 
 Although  all  village  types  showed prevalences of low serum VA
 well  above   the   cut-off  for  being  a  public  health  risk,
 transitional villages  experience  the  highest prevalence of low
 serum retinol although not at statistically significant levels.

 \midinsert \vskip4.5in  {\bf Figure 3.}
            Prevalence of Low Serum Retinol in Schoolage  Children
 by Village Type (145 villages).  Three bars are displayed in this
 chart:  one for traditional, one  for  transitional,  and one for
 modern villages.  The height of the  bar  measures the percentage
 of prevalence  (\% $<$ 10 mcg/dl).   Traditional shows low  serum
 retinol of about 12.5\%;  transitional at about 13\%; and, modern
 at about 10\%.   The  source  is  1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence

 \noindent{\bf Iodine deficiency (IDD)}

      Iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) is used to define a  group
 of functional disabilities associated with inadequate  levels  of
 iodine  ranging  from  impaired  thyroid function to debilitating
 cretinism.  Iodine is normally  ingested in water or plants which
 have extracted it from soil.   IDD  is  most  likely  to occur in
 isolated rural areas  that  are  ecologically deficient in iodine
 and have little contact with food products from areas with higher
 iodine availability. Three different measures were used to assess 
 iodine  deficiency in this  study;  visible  goiter  rate,  total
 goiter  rate,  and  percent  of  villages  with total goiter rate
 above the WHO defined at-risk prevalence rate of ten percent.

      Figure 4 shows the visible goiter rate classified by village
 category.  Again, risk was shown to be  highest  in  transitional
 villages.  Figures 5 and 6 also show much higher  risk  rates  in
 transitional villages using the other indicators  of  deficiency,
 total goiter rates,  and  percent  of  villages  with  high total
 goiter rates (p=0.0045).

 \midinsert \vskip5in {\bf Figure 4.}   
              Visible Goiter Rate in Schoolage Children by Village
 Type (171 villages).   Three  bars  are  displayed in this chart: 
 one  for  traditional,  one  for transitional, and one for modern
 villages. The height of the bar measures the mean village visible
 goiter rate.   Traditional  shows visible goiter rate of 0.098\%;
 transitional at 0.525\%; and, modern at 0.041\%.   The  source is
 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey.

 \midinsert \vskip5in  {\bf Figure 5.}
           Total Goiter Rate in Schoolage Children by Village Type
 (171 villages).  Three bars are displayed in this chart:  one for
 traditional, one  for  transitional, and one for modern villages. 
 The height of the  bar  measures  the  mean  village total goiter
 rate.  Traditional shows total goiter rate of 6.8\%; transitional
 at  16.1\%;  and,  modern  at  6.9\%.  The source is 1991 Eastern
 Islands Prevalence Survey.

 \midinsert \vskip5in  {\bf Figure 6.}   
              Percent of Villages with High Total Goiter Rate (169
 villages).  (Prevalence  of  village  total goiter rate > 10\% --
 schoolchildren.) Three bars are displayed in this chart:  one for
 traditional, one  for  transitional, and one for modern villages. 
 The height of the  bar measures the percentage villages with high
 total goiter rate.  Traditional shows percentage of villages with
 high total goiter  rate  at  26.7\%; transitional at 49.5\%; and,
 modern at 31.3\%.   The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence

     Because there is often correspondence between topography  and
 iodine deficiency, an attempt  was  made to refute this competing
 explanation  for  the  observed  outcome.   Figure  7  shows  the
 relationship between topography and village transitional  status. 
 Topography was categorized as lowlands, mountainous, and coastal. 
 If  the  competing  explanation  for  high  risk  in transitional 
 villages  is,  in  fact,  their mountainous topography, one would
 expect  mountainous  villages  to  be  overrepresented   in   the 
 transitional  village  category.   The  data in Figure 7 indicate
 exactly  the  opposite.   Fewer  transitional  villages   lie  in
 mountainous areas than in either the low land or coastal  village
 categories.   While  this  observation  does not fully refute the
 competing explanation, it strongly supports transitional villages
 as the underlying explanation for high risk.

 \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 7.}
            Topography  by  Village  Type:   Counts  of  Villages.
 (145  villages).   (Percent  villages  in  mountainous  regions.)
 Three sets of three bars each are displayed in this  chart:   one
 for traditional (low, mountainous,  and  coastal topography), one
 for transitional (low, mountainous, and coastal topography),  and
 one  for  modern  (low,  mountainous,  and  coastal   topography)
 villages.   The  length  of  the  bar  measures the percentage of
 villages in mountainous (or coastal or low) regions.  43\% of the
 traditional villages are mountainous; 26.4\% of  the transitional
 villages are mountainous; and, 43.7\% of the  modern villages are
 mountainous.   The  source  is  1991  Eastern  Islands Prevalence
 \noindent{\bf Iron deficiency}

      Anemia is the most widespread micronutrient disorder in  the
 world.   It  has  profound  consequences  on  adult productivity,
 impaired  cognitive  and  motor  development  in children, and in
 pregnant  women  can  significantly  complicate   the   risk   of 
 intrauterine  growth,  low  birthweight, and perinatal mortality. 
 As  many  as  fifty  percent of all maternal deaths in developing
 countries may be  associated with anemia and may be the exclusive
 cause  in  as  many  as  twenty  percent  of  all maternal deaths
 (ACC/SCN  Workshop;   Preventing  Anemia;   SCN  News  6:1-6). In
 addition to an  inadequate intake of iron in the diet, anemia may
 be  brought  on  by  exposure  to  certain  infectious  diseases. 
 Malaria,  hookworm,  schistosomiasis,  and  other  infections are
 related  to  the  etiology  of anemia.  In the Eastern Islands of
 Indonesia, the role that  malaria plays in the etiology of anemia
 cannot  be  ignored.   However,  regardless of cause, nutritional
 anemia must be reckoned with.

      Figure  8  indicates  the  relationship  between nutritional
 anemia  in  preschool  children  and village type.  Using the WHO
 cut-off for iron anemia of eleven  gm/dl, the mean values of both
 categories  of  transitional village fell below the cut-off while
 traditional  and  modern  villages were above the cut-off.  There
 is a statistically  significant  difference between village types
 with p=0.043 for between group differences.

 \midinsert \vskip4.5in  {\bf Figure 8.}
            Nutritional Anemia in  Preschool  Children  by Village
 Type.  WHO cut-off Fe-deficiency is at a value  of 11  (measuring
 mean HB (gm/dl)). (145 villages).  Four  bars  are  displayed  in
 this chart:  one for traditional, one for early transitional, one
 for late transitional, and one for modern villages. The length of
 the bar measures the mean Hb (gm/dl).  The bars for the early and
 late transitional villages fall  short of the WHO cut-off line at
 11. The bars for the traditional and modern village go beyond the
 WHO cut-off line.   The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence
 \noindent{\bf Intestinal worms}

      Intestinal    parasites    (helminthic     infection)    can
 significantly contribute to malnutrition in adults  and even more
 in children.   Reduction  in  such  infections usually requires a 
 multifaceted  approach  to   public   health   including   family
 education,  improved  waste disposal, safe water, and proper food
 preparation.  Figure  9  presents  evidence  on the prevalence of
 helminthic  infection  by  village  type  for 169 villages in the
 Eastern  Islands.   Again,  both  early  and  late   transitional
 villages  show  a  higher  mean village worm rate although not at
 statistically significant levels.

 \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 9.}
           Prevalence of Helminthic Infection by Village Type (169
 villages).   Four  bars  are  displayed  in  this chart:  one for
 traditional,  one  for   early   transitional,   one   for   late
 transitional, and one for modern villages.  The length of the bar
 measures the mean village rate of worm infestation.  The  bar for
 traditional villages has length 13.91; that for early transitional
 has length 15.29;  that  for  late  transitional has length 16.8;
 and, that for modern has length 5.98.  The source is 1991 Eastern
 Islands Prevalence Survey.

     Not all measured variables showed at-riskness in transitional
 villages.  Prevalence of diarrhea, chicken pox, and  measles  did
 not  show  measurably  higher  rates  during  the  study  period. 
 Difference  in  seasonality  of  high-risk  periods  depending on
 topography and the episodic character  of some of these  diseases
 may be factors which preclude indication of heightened  risks  by
 village type.
      While  this  dataset  provides evidence of the vulnerability
 of  transitional  villages  to  micronutrient  deficiencies,  and
 supports the targeting of micronutrient control programs to these
 villages,  it  is  also  pertinent  to  investigate  the  general 
 ``overlap" in micronutrient deficiency prevalences in all village
 types.  This  analysis  addresses  the  issue of integrating  VAD
 control  activities  with  IDD  and  IDA  control  programs.   As
 governments  examine  the  possible  benefits  gained   from  the 
 integration  of VAD control activities with IDD and IDA programs,
 and  a  strategies  that target high risk populations appear most
 cost-effective, the  examination  of the extent to which villages 
 at high  risk  for  one  micronutrient  deficiency is at the same
 time  at  high  risk for another micronutrient deficiency becomes
 a logical research question with direct programmatic implications. 
 The  data  gathered  from  the Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey,
 provides a unique opportunity to investigate  this measurement of
 the  degree  of  covariance,   or   ``overlap,"   between   these
 \noindent{\bf Methods}

      In order to address this issue,  two  types of analyses were
 carried out.  The first set of analyses focused on measuring  the
 correlations between the prevalence of the three  micronutrients.  
 Statistical procedures included formulation of a  correlogram and
 multidimensional   scaling.    (These   methodologies   are   not 
 included  in  this  paper  but  are available through the primary
 author in a separate paper  presently in draft form.)  The second
 type of analysis was aimed  at presenting the relative ``overlap"
 in  high  prevalences  for  all three micronutrient deficiencies, 
 and Venn diagrams were  constructed to allow for visualization of
 this phenomenon.
 \noindent{\bf Determination of Overlap in Risk}

      Figure 10 is a Venn diagram which shows the overlap in risk 
 for  micronutrient  malnutrition.  It represents aggregated data
 from  138  villages.   VAD,  TGR,  and  IDA  are shown to have a 
 substantial  overlap among the villages.  This overlap, like the
 broader  overlap  among  different sectors in the community, has
 important implications for intervention strategies which will be
 discussed further in the concluding section of the paper.

 \midinsert \vskip5.5in {\bf Figure 10.}
             Three-circle Venn diagram:  two circles on  top,  one
 below,  intersecting  to form eight disjoint regions.  The circle
 on  the  upper  left  represents VAD; the one on the upper right,
 TGR;  and,  the  one  on  the  bottom,  IDA.  Overlap in Risk for
 Micronutrient Malnutrition in the Eastern  Islands  of  Indonesia
 (number of villages is 145).  Breakdown of the  partition by Venn
 1.  VAD and TGR and IDA:  30;
 2.  VAD and TGR and not-IDA:  2;
 3.  VAD and IDA and not-TGR:  39;
 4.  VAD and not-IDA and not-TGR: 7;
 5.  IDA and TGR and not-VAD:  26;
 6.  IDA and not-TGR and not-VAD:  30;
 7.  TGR and not-VAD and not-IDA: 4;
 8.  not-VAD and not-TGR and not-IDA: 7.       

      Figure  11  presents  the  overlap  in  risks  for the  same
 micronutrient deficiencies in transitional villages and Figure 12
 shows these overlaps for traditional and modern villages.   It is
 interesting that the pattern of overlap does not  change  between
 transitional and non-transitional villages.

 \midinsert \vskip5.5in  {\bf Figure 11.}
             Three-circle  Venn diagram:   two circles on top, one
 below,  intersecting  to form eight disjoint regions.  The circle
 on  the  upper  left  represents VAD; the one on the upper right,
 TGR;  and,  the  one  on  the  bottom,  IDA.  Overlap in Risk for
 Micronutrient Malnutrition in the Eastern Islands of Indonesia in
 Transitional villages. Breakdown of the partition by Venn region:  
 1.  VAD and TGR and IDA:  26;
 2.  VAD and TGR and not-IDA:  1;
 3.  VAD and IDA and not-TGR:  25;
 4.  VAD and not-IDA and not-TGR: 5;
 5.  IDA and TGR and not-VAD:  20;
 6.  IDA and not-TGR and not-VAD:  21;
 7.  TGR and not-VAD and not-IDA: 3;
 8.  not-VAD and not-TGR and not-IDA: 3.       

 \midinsert \vskip5.5in  {\bf Figure 12.}
             Three-circle Venn diagram:  two circles  on  top, one
 below, intersecting  to  form eight disjoint regions.  The circle
 on  the  upper  left  represents VAD; the one on the upper right,
 TGR;  and,  the  one  on  the  bottom,  IDA.  Overlap in Risk for
 Micronutrient Malnutrition in the Eastern Islands of Indonesia in
 Non-transitional villages.  Breakdown of the  partition  by  Venn
 1.  VAD and TGR and IDA:  4;
 2.  VAD and TGR and not-IDA:  1;
 3.  VAD and IDA and not-TGR:  14;
 4.  VAD and not-IDA and not-TGR: 2;
 5.  IDA and TGR and not-VAD:  5;
 6.  IDA and not-TGR and not-VAD:  9;
 7.  TGR and not-VAD and not-IDA: 1;
 8.  not-VAD and not-TGR and not-IDA: 4.       
 \noindent{\bf Summary of Evidence for Elevated Risk in 
               Transitional Villages}

     The forgoing analysis presents a rather compelling picture of
 heightened health risk in villages  experiencing  transition from
 traditional  self-sufficient  living  patterns  to more developed
 market-oriented  economies.   Almost   every   health   indicator 
 examined  in  this  study  shows  that  households  in   villages 
 experiencing  transitions  were worse off --- whether the measure
 be child  malnutrition  (PEM), anemia (IDA), vitamin A deficiency
 (VAD), iodine deficiency (IDD), or helminthic infection. Further,
 this  heightened  risk  was  evident   in   spite   of   apparent 
 ``improvements"  in  community  infrastructure, both physical and

   Theoretical developments and the first stages of empirical work
 elsewhere suggest that this heightened risk during transition may
 be  attributable  to  the vulnerability created by rapid rates of
 change  in  each of many sectors of the community especially when
 they  occur  simultaneously.   Old  and  often useful patterns of
 interaction  among  sectors  are  damaged  or  destroyed  and new
 adaptive  patterns  have  not  yet developed.  Changes within one
 sector  result,  often  harmfully,  in  changes in another.  And, 
 perhaps  most  important,  these  changes  occur  so rapidly that 
 societal adaptive capacity is limited during the transition.

     Societal  vulnerability due to rapid rates of change deserves
 recognition  and,  if  possible,  remediation.  Risks are brought
 about by changes  in  employment patterns, education levels, more
 abundant  supplies  of  water,  altered  waste  disposal systems, 
 increased transportation alternatives (and costs),  disruption in
 food  production,  storage,  preparation  and  consumption,   and
 changes in population density.  These overlapping risks call  for
 a  community-wide  strategy  of   remediation   which  explicitly
 recognizes their interaction.   The strategy need not be complex;
 only conceived broadly  enough  to explicitly embrace interaction
 among sectors.
 \noindent{\bf Policy implications}

     A possible policy implication from the findings of this study
 suggests  planning  for  special   emphasis   and   corresponding
 resources  devoted  to  health  care activities during periods of
 rapid    social    or    economic   change.     Especially   when 
 government-sponsored  development  efforts are being implemented,
 it may be  helpful  to schedule higher levels of service delivery
 in  order  to  overcome  the anticipated higher risk for children
 during transition periods.

     While focusing upon villages in transition is but one type of
 targeting,  there  is  a  qualitative difference between this and
 other targeting strategies  discussed earlier.  In this instance,
 targeting can be based upon  {\bf  anticipating}  the risk rather
 than reflecting current  or  historical  risk estimates.  Because
 government  is  both  planner  and  resource  allocator  for  its
 development programs, difficulties  experienced  during  movement
 through a transition period can be dampened by allocating special
 activities to the region receiving development assistance. At the
 very least, government can monitor local  conditions more closely
 and be prepared to act quickly if problems should arise.

      Because  this  is  the  first  study  showing these elevated
 risks for transition villages and because  the  results from this
 analysis should not be extended to other settings without further
 confirmation, it also might be useful to explore more  fully  the
 nature of societal vulnerability in  transition  communities.   A
 pilot project  incorporating  a  research  design  which  focuses
 upon this question could be far more robust than  was possible in
 this  study  and  consequently  capable  of  stronger conclusions
 regarding the strategy's usefulness.  If  such a pilot  study  is
 implemented,  it  would  be useful to install a simple monitoring
 component capable of measuring the gains from this approach.
 \noindent{\bf Implementing a targeting strategy}

    Implementing a targeting strategy has many practical elements. 
 Ease  of  gathering  data necessary for targeting is crucial.  As
 discussed earlier, data requirements which are too costly or time
 consuming usually are not useful.  One strength of  the  strategy
 suggested  in  this  paper  is  the  use of simple  village-level
 variables  which  are  easy  to gather but which do a good job of
 identifying average household at-riskness.  But  there is another
 practical dimension which is less easy to quantify.  That is, how
 to blend analytic evidence of  at-riskness in a particular sector
 of  a  community  with  local  judgment  of  those closest to the
 setting.   Experience  elsewhere  indicates  that   a   targeting
 strategy  based  only  upon  analytic considerations is less than
 optimal.   Furthermore,  risks  organized  by  type of problem or
 sector in the community can be  less useful  than combining risks
 into  one  composite.   Often  it  is  most practical to allocate
 resources to the entire community  rather  than to each component
 or  sector.   While  it  is  helpful  to  keep each risk category
 separate for analysis purposes,  there  is  also benefit in being
 able to aggregate risk across  sectors.   Assessing and acting on
 at-riskness based on village  transitional status  permits such a


 \centerline{\bf  BACK ISSUES OF {\sl SOLSTICE\/} ON A GOPHER}

 \noindent {\sl Solstice\/} is available on a GOPHER from the
 Department of Mathematics at Arizona State University:
      PI.LA.ASU.EDU port 70 

 \noindent This section shows the exact set of commands that  work 
 to  download {\sl Solstice\/} on  The  University  of  Michigan's 
 Xerox  9700.   Because different universities will have different
 installations  of {\TeX},  this  is  only a rough guideline which
 {\sl might\/} be of use to the reader. (BACK   ISSUES   AVAILABLE
 using anonymous ftp to open um.cc.umich.edu, account  GCFS;  type
 cd GCFS after  entering system;  then type ls to get a directory;
 then type get solstice.190 (for example) and download it or  read
 it according to local constraints.) Back issues will be available
 on this account; this account is ONLY for back issues;  to  write
 Solstice,  send   e-mail   to   Solstice@UMICHUM.bitnet   or   to
 Solstice@um.cc.umich.edu .   Issues  from  this  one  forward are
 available on FTP on account IEVG (substitute IEVG for GCFS above).

 First  step  is  to  concatenate  the  files  you  received   via
 bitnet/internet.   Simply  piece  them together in your computer,
 one  after  another,  in  the  order  in which they are numbered,
 starting with the number, ``1."

 The  files  you  have received are ASCII files;  the concatenated
 file  is  used  to  form  the  .tex file from which the .dvi file
 (device  independent)  file is formed.  The words ``percent-sign"
 and ``backslash" are written out in the example  below;  the user
 should type them symbolically.
  \# create -t.tex
 \# percent-sign t from pc c:backslash words backslash
    solstice.tex to mts -t.tex char notab
     (this command sends my file, solstice.tex, which I did as
      a WordStar (subdirectory, ``words") ASCII file to the
 \# run *tex par=-t.tex
     (there may be some underfull (or certain over) boxes that
      generally  cause  no  problem;  there should be no other
      ``error"  messages  in  the  typesetting--the  files you
      receive were already tested.)

 \# run *dvixer par=-t.dvi
 \# control *print* onesided
 \# run *pagepr scards=-t.xer, par=paper=plain
 \centerline{\bf 5.  SOLSTICE--INDEX, VOLUMES I, II, III, IV.1}
 \noindent{\bf Volume IV, Number 1, Summer, 1993}
 \noindent {\bf 1.}  Welcome to New Readers.
 \noindent {\bf 2.} Press clippings, summary.
 \noindent {\bf 3.}  Goings on about Ann Arbor--ESRI and IMaGe Gift
 \noindent {\bf 4.}  Articles

 Electronic Journals:  Observations Based on Actual Trials,
 1987-Present, by Sandra L. Arlinghaus and Richard H. Zander.

     Abstract; Content issues; Production issues; Archival issues;

 Wilderness As Place, by John D. Nystuen.

     Visual paradoxes; Wilderness defined; Conflict or synthesis;
     Wilderness as place; Suggested readings; Sources; Visual
     illusion authors

 The Earth Isn't Flant.  And It Isn't Round Either:  Some Significant
     and Little Known Effects of the Earth's Ellipsoidal Shape,
     by Frank E. Barmore.
 reprinted from the {\sl Wisconsin Geographer\/}.

     Abstract; Introduction; The Qibla problem; The geographic
     center; The center of population; Appendix; References.

 Microcell Hex-nets? by Sandra L. Arlinghaus

     Introduction; Lattices; Microcell hex-nets; References.

 Sum Graphs and Geographic Information, by Sandra L. Arlinghaus,
     William C. Arlinghaus, Frank Harary.

     Abstract; Sum graphs; Sum graph unification:  construction;
     Cartographic application of sum graph unification; Sum graph
     unification:  theory; Logarithmic sum graphs; Reversed sum
     graphs; Augmented reversed logarithmic sum graphs; Cartographic
     application of ARL sum graphs; Summary

 \noindent{\bf 5.}  Downloading of {\sl Solstice\/}. 

 \noindent{\bf 6.} Index.

 \noindent{\bf 7.}  Other publications of IMaGe.
 \noindent {\bf Volume III, Number 2, Winter, 1992}

 \noindent {\bf 1.}  A Word of Welcome from A to U.

 \noindent {\bf 2.}  Press clippings--summary.

 \noindent {\bf 3.}  Reprints:

 \noindent {\bf A.} 
 What Are Mathematical Models and What Should They Be?
 by Frank Harary, reprinted from {\sl Biometrie - Praximetrie\/}. 
 \smallskip \noindent {\sl
 1.  What Are They?  2.  Two Worlds:  Abstract and Empirical
 3.  Two Worlds:  Two Levels  4.  Two Levels:  Derviation and
 Selection  5.  Research Schema  6.  Sketches of Discovery
 7.  What Should They Be?

 \noindent {\bf B.}  Where Are We?  Comments on the Concept of
 Center of Population, by Frank E. Barmore, reprinted from
 {\sl The Wisconsin Geographer\/}.
 \smallskip \noindent {\sl
 1.  Introduction  2.  Preliminary Remarks  3.  Census Bureau
 Center of Population Formul{\ae}  4.  Census Bureau Center of
 Population Description  5.  Agreement Between Description and
 Formul{\ae}  6.  Proposed Definition of the Center of 
 Population  7.  Summary  8.  Appendix A  9.  Appendix B
 10.  References

 \noindent {\bf 4.}  Article:
 The Pelt of the Earth:  An Essay on Reactive Diffusion,
 by Sandra L. Arlinghaus and John D. Nystuen.
 \smallskip \noindent {\sl
 1.  Pattern Formation:  Global Views  2.  Pattern Formation:
 Local Views  3.  References Cited  4.  Literature of Apparent
 Related Interest.

 \noindent {\bf 5.}  Feature
 Meet new{\sl Solstice\/} Board Member William D. Drake;
 comments on course in Transition Theory and listing of
 student-produced monograph.

 \noindent {\bf 6.} Downloading of Solstice.

 \noindent {\bf 7.} Index to Solstice.

 \noindent {\bf 8.} Other Publications of IMaGe.
 \noindent {\bf Volume III, Number 1, Summer, 1992}

 \noindent{\bf 1.  ARTICLES.}

 {\bf Harry L. Stern}. 
 {\bf Computing Areas of Regions With Discretely Defined Boundaries}.
 1. Introduction 2. General Formulation 3. The Plane 4.  The Sphere
 5.  Numerical Example and Remarks.  Appendix--Fortran Program.

 \noindent{\bf 2.  NOTE }

 {\bf Sandra L. Arlinghaus, John D. Nystuen, Michael J. Woldenberg}.  
 {\bf  The Quadratic World of Kinematic Waves}

 \noindent{\bf 3.  SOFTWARE REVIEW}
 RangeMapper$^{\hbox{TM}}$  ---  version 1.4.
 Created  by {\bf Kenelm W. Philip},  Tundra Vole Software,
 Fairbanks, Alaska.  Program and Manual by  {\bf Kenelm W. Philip}.
 Reviewed by {\bf Yung-Jaan Lee}, University of Michigan.

 \noindent{\bf 4.  PRESS CLIPPINGS}

 \noindent{\bf 5.  INDEX to Volumes I (1990) and II (1991) of
             {\sl Solstice}.}
 \noindent {\bf Volume II, Number 2, Winter, 1991}

 \noindent 1.  REPRINT

 Saunders Mac Lane, ``Proof, Truth, and Confusion."  Given as the
 Nora and Edward Ryerson Lecture at The University of Chicago in
 1982.  Republished with permission of The University of Chicago
 and of the author.

 I.  The Fit of Ideas.  II.  Truth and Proof.  III.  Ideas and Theorems.
 IV.  Sets and Functions.  V.  Confusion via Surveys.
 VI.  Cost-benefit and Regression.  VII.  Projection, Extrapolation,
 and Risk.  VIII.  Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Thoughts.  IX.  Compromise
 is Confusing.

 \noindent 2.  ARTICLE

 Robert F. Austin.  ``Digital Maps and Data Bases:  
 Aesthetics versus Accuracy."

 I.  Introduction.  II. Basic Issues.  III. Map Production.
 IV.  Digital Maps.  V.  Computerized Data Bases.  VI.  User

 \noindent 3.  FEATURES

 Press clipping; Word Search Puzzle; Software Briefs.
 \noindent {\bf Volume II, Number 1, Summer, 1991}

 \noindent 1.  ARTICLE

 Sandra L. Arlinghaus, David Barr, John D. Nystuen.
 {\sl The Spatial Shadow:  Light and Dark --- Whole and Part\/}

      This account of some of the projects of sculptor David Barr
 attempts to place them in a formal, systematic, spatial  setting
 based  on  the  postulates  of  the  science of space of William
 Kingdon Clifford (reprinted in {\sl Solstice\/}, Vol. I, No. 1.).

 \noindent 2.  FEATURES

 \item{i}  Construction Zone --- The logistic curve.
 \item{ii.} Educational feature --- Lectures on ``Spatial Theory"
 \noindent{\bf Volume I, Number 2, Winter, 1990}
 \noindent 1.  REPRINT

 John D. Nystuen (1974), {\sl A City of Strangers:  Spatial Aspects
 of Alienation in the Detroit Metropolitan Region\/}.  

     This paper examines the urban shift from ``people space" to 
 ``machine space" (see R. Horvath,  {\sl Geographical Review\/},
 April, 1974) in the Detroit metropolitan  region  of 1974.   As
 with Clifford's {\sl Postulates\/}, reprinted in the last issue
 of {\sl Solstice\/}, note  the  timely  quality  of many of the 

 \noindent 2.  ARTICLES

 Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, {\sl Scale and Dimension: Their Logical

      Linkage  between  scale  and  dimension  is made using the 
 Fallacy of Division and the Fallacy of Composition in a fractal

 Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, {\sl Parallels between Parallels\/}.

      The earth's sun introduces a symmetry in the perception of 
 its trajectory in the sky that naturally partitions the earth's
 surface  into  zones  of  affine  and hyperbolic geometry.  The
 affine zones, with  single  geometric  parallels,  are  located 
 north and south of the  geographic  parallels.   The hyperbolic
 zone, with multiple geometric parallels, is located between the
 geographic  tropical  parallels.   Evidence  of  this geometric
 partition is suggested in the geographic environment --- in the
 design of houses and of gameboards.

 Sandra L. Arlinghaus, William C. Arlinghaus, and John D. Nystuen.
 {\sl The Hedetniemi Matrix Sum:  A Real-world Application\/}.

     In a recent paper, we presented an algorithm for finding the
 shortest distance between any two nodes in a network of $n$ nodes
 when  given  only  distances between adjacent nodes [Arlinghaus, 
 Arlinghaus, Nystuen,  {\sl Geographical  Analysis\/}, 1990].  In
 that  previous   research,  we  applied  the  algorithm  to  the
 generalized  road  network  graph surrounding San Francisco Bay.  
 Here,  we  examine consequent changes in matrix entires when the
 underlying  adjacency pattern of the road network was altered by 
 the  1989  earthquake  that closed the San Francisco --- Oakland
 Bay Bridge.

 Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, {\sl Fractal Geometry  of Infinite Pixel
 Sequences:  ``Su\-per\--def\-in\-i\-tion" Resolution\/}?

    Comparison of space-filling qualities of square and hexagonal

 \noindent 3.  FEATURES

 \item{i.}       Construction  Zone ---  Feigenbaum's  number;  a
 triangular coordinatization of the Euclidean plane.

 \item{ii.}  A three-axis coordinatization of the plane.
 \noindent{\bf Volume I, Number 1, Summer, 1990}

 \noindent 1.  REPRINT

 William Kingdon Clifford, {\sl Postulates of the Science of Space\/}

      This reprint of a portion of  Clifford's  lectures  to  the
 Royal  Institution in the 1870's suggests many geographic topics
 of concern in the last half of the twentieth century.   Look for
 connections  to  boundary  issues,  to  scale problems, to self-
 similarity and fractals, and to non-Euclidean  geometries  (from
 those based on denial of Euclid's parallel  postulate  to  those
 based on a sort of mechanical ``polishing").  What else did,  or
 might, this classic essay foreshadow?

 \noindent 2.  ARTICLES.

 Sandra L. Arlinghaus, {\sl Beyond the Fractal.}  

     An original article.  The fractal notion of  self-similarity
 is  useful  for  characterizing  change  in  scale;  the  reason
 fractals are effective in the geometry of central  place  theory 
 is  because  that  geometry  is hierarchical in nature.  Thus, a
 natural place to look for other connections of this  sort  is to
 other geographical concepts that are also hierarchical.   Within
 this fractal context, this article examines the case of  spatial
     When the idea of diffusion is extended to see ``adopters" of
 an innovation as ``attractors" of new adopters,  a  Julia set is 
 introduced as a possible axis against which to measure one class
 of geographic phenomena.   Beyond the fractal  context,  fractal
 concepts,  such  as  ``compression"  and  ``space-filling"   are
 considered in a broader graph-theoretic setting.

 William C. Arlinghaus, {\sl Groups, Graphs, and God}

 \noindent 3.  FEATURES

 \item{i.}  Theorem Museum --- Desargues's  Two  Triangle  Theorem 
            from projective geometry.

 \item{ii.} Construction Zone --- a centrally symmetric hexagon is
            derived from an arbitrary convex hexagon.

 \item{iii.} Reference Corner --- Point set theory and topology.

 \item{iv.}  Educational Feature --- Crossword puzzle on spices.

 \item{v.}   Solution to crossword puzzle.


 \centerline{\bf 6.  OTHER PUBLICATIONS OF IMaGe} 

 \centerline{\bf MONOGRAPH SERIES}
 \centerline{Scholarly Monographs--Original Material, refereed}

 Prices exclusive of shipping and handling;
 payable in U.S. funds on a U.S. bank, only.
 All monographs are \$15.95, except \#12 which is \$39.95.
 Monographs are printed by Digicopy.

 1.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus and John D. Nystuen.  Mathematical
 Geography and Global Art:  the Mathematics of  David Barr's
 ``Four Corners Project,'' 1986. 
 This monograph contains Nystuen's  calculations,  actually  used
 by Barr to position his abstract  tetrahedral  sculpture  within
 the earth. Placement of the sculpture vertices in Easter Island,
 South Africa, Greenland, and Indonesia was chronicled in film by
 The Archives of American Art for The Smithsonian Institution. In
 addition to the archival material, this  monograph also contains
 Arlinghaus's solutions to broader theoretical questions ---  was
 Barr's  choice  of  a  tetrahedron  unique  within  his  initial
 constraints, and, within the set of Platonic solids?
 2.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus.  Down the Mail Tubes:  the Pressured
 Postal Era, 1853-1984, 1986. 
 The  history  of the pneumatic post, in Europe and in the United
 States,  is  examined  for  the  lessons  it  might offer to the
 technological scenes of the late twentieth century. As Sylvia L.
 Thrupp, Alice Freeman Palmer Professor Emeritus of  History, The
 University  of  Michigan,  commented  in her review of this work
 ``Such  brief  comment  does  far  less  than  justice  to   the 
 intelligence and the stimulating quality of the author's writing,
 or to the breadth of her reading.  The detail of her accounts of
 the interest of American private enterprise,  in  New  York  and
 other  large  cities  on  this   continent,   in   pushing   for
 construction  of  large  tubes  in  systems  to be leased to the
 government,  brings  out  contrast between American and European
 views  of  how  the  new technology should be managed.  This and
 many  other  sections  of  the monograph will set readers on new
 tracks of thought.'' 
 3.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus.   Essays on Mathematical Geography,

 A  collection  of  essays intended to show the range of power in
 applying pure mathematics to human systems.  There are two types
 of essay: those which employ traditional mathematical proof, and
 those which do not. As mathematical proof may itself be regarded
 as art, the former style of essay might represent ``traditional''
 art, and the latter, ``surrealist'' art.  Essay titles are:  
 ``The   well-tempered  map  projection,''  ``Antipodal graphs,''
 ``Analogue clocks,''  ``Steiner  transformations,''  ``Concavity
 and  urban  settlement  patterns,''  ``Measuring  the   vertical
 city,'' ``Fad and permanence in human systems,''   ``Topological
 exploration in geography,'' ``A space for thought,'' and ``Chaos
 in human systems--the Heine-Borel Theorem.''

 4.  Robert F. Austin, A Historical Gazetteer of Southeast Asia,
 Dr. Austin's Gazetteer draws geographic coordinates of Southeast
 Asian place-names together with references to these  place-names
 as they have appeared in historical and literary documents. This
 book  is   of  obvious  use  to  historians  and  to  historical
 geographers specializing in Southeast Asia.  At a  deeper level,
 it might serve as a valuable source in  establishing  place-name
 linkages which have remained previously unnoticed, in  documents
 describing trade or other communications connections, because of
 variation in place-name nomenclature.

 5.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Essays on Mathematical Geography--II,

 Written in the same format as IMaGe Monograph \#3, that seeks to
 use ``pure'' mathematics in  real-world  settings,  this  volume
 contains the following material:  ``Frontispiece -- the Atlantic
 Drainage Tree,'' ``Getting a Handel on Water-Graphs,''  ``Terror
 in Transit: A Graph Theoretic Approach to the Passive Defense of
 Urban  Networks,''  ``Terrae Antipodum,''  ``Urban  Inversion,'' 
 ``Fractals:    Constructions,  Speculations,   and   Concepts,''
 ``Solar  Woks,''   ``A  Pneumatic  Postal  Plan:  The  Chambered
 Interchange and ZIPPR Code,'' ``Endpiece.''
 6.  Pierre Hanjoul, Hubert Beguin, and Jean-Claude Thill,
 Theoretical Market Areas Under Euclidean Distance, 1988. 
 (English language text; Abstracts written in French and
 in English.) 
 Though  already  initiated  by Rau in 1841, the economic  theory
 of the shape of  two-dimensional market areas has long  remained
 concerned  with  a  representation  of  transportation  costs as
 linear in distance.  In the general gravity model, to which  the
 theory   also   applies,   this   corresponds  to  a  decreasing
 exponential   function    of    distance    deterrence.    Other
 transportation  cost  and  distance  deterrence  functions  also
 appear in the literature, however.  They  have  not  always been
 considered from the viewpoint  of  the shape of the market areas
 they generate,  and  their  disparity  asks the question whether
 other types of functions would not be  worth being investigated. 
 There is thus a need for a general theory  of market areas:  the
 present work aims at filling this gap,  in the case of a duopoly
 competing  inside  the  Euclidean  plane  endowed with Euclidean
 (Bien   qu'\'ebauch\'ee   par   Rau  d\`es  1841,  la  th\'eorie
 \'economique  de  la forme des aires de march\'e planaires s'est
 longtemps  content\'ee  de l'hypoth\`ese de co\^uts de transport
 proportionnels  \`a  la  distance.   Dans le mod\`ele gravitaire
 g\'en\'eralis\'e, auquel on peut \'etendre cette th\'eorie, ceci
 correspond au  choix  d'une  exponentielle  d\'ecroissante comme
 fonction  de  dissuasion  de la distance.  D'autres fonctions de
 co\^ut de transport ou de dissuasion de la distance apparaissent
 cependant dans la  litt\'erature. La forme des aires de march\'e
 qu'elles  engendrent  n'a pas toujours \'et\'e \'etudi\'ee ; par
 ailleurs,  leur  vari\'et\'e am\`ene \`a se demander si d'autres
 fonctions encore ne m\'eriteraient pas d'\^etre examin\'ees.  Il
 para\^it donc utile de disposer d'une th\'eorie g\'en\'erale des
 aires de march\'e : ce \`a  quoi  s'attache ce travail en cas de
 duopole,  dans  le  cadre  du plan euclidien muni d'une distance
 7.  Keith J. Tinkler, Editor, Nystuen---Dacey Nodal Analysis,

 Professor  Tinkler's  volume  displays  the  use  of  this graph
 theoretical  tool  in  geography, from  the original Nystuen ---
 Dacey article, to a  bibliography of uses, to  original  uses by
 Tinkler.  Some reprinted  material is  included,  but by far the
 larger  part  is  of  previously  unpublished material.  (Unless
 otherwise   noted,   all   items  listed  below  are  previously
 unpublished.)  Contents: 
 `` `Foreward' " by Nystuen, 1988;  ``Preface" by Tinkler,  1988;
 ``Statistics for Nystuen --- Dacey Nodal Analysis,"  by Tinkler,
 1979; Review of Nodal Analysis literature by Tinkler (pre--1979,
 reprinted with permission; post---1979, new as of 1988); FORTRAN
 program listing for Nodal Analysis  by Tinkler; ``A graph theory
 interpretation of nodal regions'' by John D. Nystuen and Michael
 F. Dacey, reprinted with  permission, 1961; Nystuen---Dacey data
 concerning telephone  flows  in  Washington and Missouri,  1958,
 1959 with comment by Nystuen, 1988;  ``The expected distribution
 of nodality  in  random  (p, q)  graphs  and  multigraphs,''  by
 Tinkler, 1976.

 8.  James W. Fonseca, The Urban Rank--size Hierarchy: 
 A Mathematical Interpretation, 1989.

 The  urban  rank--size  hierarchy  can  be  characterized  as an
 equiangular spiral of the form
      $r=ae^{\theta \, \hbox{cot}\alpha}$. 
 An equiangular spiral can also be constructed  from a  Fibonacci
 sequence. The urban rank--size hierarchy is thus shown to mirror
 the properties derived from Fibonacci  characteristics  such  as
 rank--additive properties. A new method of structuring the urban
 rank--size hierarchy  is  explored  which  essentially parallels
 that  of the traditional rank--size  hierarchy  below  rank  11. 
 Above rank 11 this method may help  explain the frequently noted
 concavity of the rank--size  distribution  at  the upper levels. 
 The research suggests that  the  simple rank--size rule with the
 exponent equal to 1 is not  merely a  special case, but rather a
 theoretically justified norm  against which deviant cases may be
 measured. The spiral distribution model allows conceptualization
 of a new view of the  urban  rank--size  hierarchy  in which the
 three largest cities share functions in a Fibonacci hierarchy.

 9.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus,  An Atlas of Steiner Networks, 1989.

 A  Steiner  network  is a tree of minimum total length joining a
 prescribed, finite,  number  of  locations;  often new locations
 are introduced into the prescribed set to  determine the minimum
 tree.  This Atlas explains the mathematical  detail  behind  the
 Steiner construction for  prescribed  sets  of $n$ locations and
 displays the steps, visually, in a series of Figures.  The proof
 of  the  Steiner  construction is by mathematical induction, and
 enough  steps  in  the early part of the induction are displayed
 completely  that  the  reader  who is well--trained in Euclidean
 geometry,  and  familiar  with  concepts  from  graph theory and
 elementary  number  theory,  should  be  able  to  replicate the
 constructions for full as well as for degenerate Steiner trees.
 10.  Daniel A. Griffith, Simulating $K=3$ Christaller Central
 Place Structures:  An Algorithm Using A Constant Elasticity of
 Substitution Consumption Function, 1989.
 An  algorithm  is  presented that uses BASICA or GWBASIC on  IBM
 compatible machines.  This algorithm simulates Christaller $K=3$
 central place structures,  for  a four--level  hierarchy.  It is
 based upon earlier published work by the author.  A  description
 of  the  spatial  theory,  mathematics,  and  sample output runs
 appears  in  the monograph.  A digital version is available from
 the author, free of charge, upon request; this  request  must be
 accompanied by a 5.25--inch formatted diskette.   This algorithm
 has  been  developed  for  use  in  Social   Science   classroom 
 laboratory situations, and is designed to
 (a) cultivate a deeper understanding of central place theory,
 (b) allow parameters of a central place system to be altered and
     then  graphic  and  tabular  results  attributable  to these
     changes viewed, without experiencing the tedium  of  massive
     calculations, and
 (c) help  promote  a  better  comprehension  of the complex role
 distance plays in the space--economy.  The algorithm also should
 facilitate  intensive  numerical  research  on   central   place
 structures;  it  is  expected  that  even  the sample simulation
 results will reveal interesting  insights  into abstract central
 place theory.

 The background spatial theory concerns demand and competition in
 the  space--economy;  both linear and non--linear spatial demand
 functions are discussed.  The mathematics is concerned with
 (a)  integration  of  non--linear  spatial  demand  cones  on  a
 continuous  demand  surface,  using  a  constant  elasticity  of
 substitution consumption function,
 (b) solving for roots of polynomials,
 (c) numerical approximations to integration and root extraction,
 (d) multinomial   discriminant   function   classification    of 
 commodities into central place hierarchy levels.  Sample  output
 is  presented  for  contrived  data   sets,   constructed   from
 artificial and empirical information, with the wide range of all
 possible  central  place  structures  being   generated.   These
 examples should facilitate implementation testing.  Students are
 able  to  vary  single  or  multiple  parameters of the problem,
 permitting  a  study  of how certain changes manifest themselves
 within  the  context  of  a theoretical central place structure. 
 Hierarchical  classification  criteria  may  be  changed, demand
 elasticities may or may not vary and can take on a wide range of
 non--negative  values,  the uniform transport cost may be set at
 any positive  level, assorted fixed costs and variable costs may
 be  introduced,  again  within  a  rich  range  of non--negative
 possibilities,  and  the  number  of commodities can be altered. 
 Directions  for  algorithm  execution  are summarized.  An ASCII
 version  of  the  algorithm,  written  directly from GWBASIC, is
 included in an appendix; hence, it is free of typing errors.
 11.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus and John D. Nystuen,
      Environmental Effects on Bus Durability, 1990.  

 This  monograph  draws  on the authors' previous publications on
 ``Climatic" and ``Terrain" effects on bus durability.   Material
 on  these  two  topics  is  selected,  and reprinted, from three
 published  papers  that  appeared  in  the  {\sl  Transportation
 Research Record\/} and in the {\sl Geographical Review\/}.   New
 material  concerning  ``congestion"  effects  is examined at the
 national  level,  to  determine  ``dense,"  ``intermediate," and
 ``sparse"  classes  of  congestion,  and  at  the local level of
 congestion  in  Ann  Arbor  (as suggestive of how one  might use
 local data). This material is drawn together in a single volume,
 along  with  a  summary of the consequences of all three effects
 simultaneously,  in  order  to suggest direction for more highly
 automated studies that should  follow naturally with the release
 of the 1990 U. S. Census data.

 12.  Daniel A. Griffith, Editor.
 Spatial Statistics:  Past, Present, and Future,  1990. 
 Proceedings  of  a  Symposium of the same name held at Syracuse
 University  in  Summer,  1989.   Content  includes a Preface by
 Griffith and the following papers:  

 Brian Ripley, ``Gibbsian interaction models"; 

 J. Keith Ord, ``Statistical methods for point pattern data";

 Luc Anselin, ``What is special about spatial data";

 Robert P. Haining, ``Models in human geography: 
 problems in specifying, estimating, and validating models
 for spatial data"; 

 R. J. Martin,
 ``The role of spatial statistics in geographic modelling";

 Daniel Wartenberg, 
 ``Exploratory spatial analyses:  outliers,
 leverage points, and influence functions"; 

 J. H. P. Paelinck,
 ``Some new estimators in spatial econometrics"; 

 Daniel A. Griffith, 
 ``A numerical simplification for estimating parameters of 
 spatial autoregressive models"; 

 Kanti V. Mardia,
 ``Maximum likelihood estimation for spatial models"; 

 Ashish Sen, ``Distribution of spatial correlation statistics";

 Sylvia Richardson,  
 ``Some remarks on the testing of association between spatial

 Graham J. G. Upton, ``Information from regional data";

 Patrick Doreian,
 ``Network autocorrelation models:  problems and prospects." 

 Each chapter is preceded by an ``Editor's Preface" and followed
 by a Discussion and, in some cases, by an author's Rejoinder to
 the Discussion.

 13.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor.  Solstice --- I,  1990. 
 14.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Essays on Mathematical Geography
 --- III, 1991.
 A continuation of the series.  Essays in this volume are: 
 Table  for  central  place  fractals;  Tiling  according to  the
 ``Administrative" Principle; Moir\'e maps; Triangle partitioning;
 An  enumeration  of  candidate  Steiner  networks; A topological
 generation gap; Synthetic centers of gravity:  A conjecture.

 15.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor, Solstice --- II, 1991.
 16.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor, Solstice --- III, 1992.

 17.  Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor, Solstice --- IV, 1993.
 Editor, Daniel A. Griffith
 Professor of Geography
 Syracuse University

 1.  Spatial Regression Analysis on the PC:
 Spatial Statistics Using Minitab.  1989.  
 Cost:  \$12.95, hardcopy.
 Editor of MICMG Series, John D. Nystuen
 Professor of Geography and Urban Planning
 The University of Michigan

 1.  Reprint of the Papers of the Michigan InterUniversity
 Community of Mathematical Geographers. 
 Editor, John D. Nystuen.
 Cost:  \$39.95, hardcopy.
 Contents--original editor:  John D. Nystuen.
 1.  Arthur Getis, ``Temporal land use pattern analysis with the
 use of nearest neighbor and quadrat methods."  July, 1963
 2.  Marc Anderson, ``A working bibliography of mathematical
 geography."  September, 1963.
 3.  William Bunge, ``Patterns of location."  February, 1964.

 4.  Michael F. Dacey, ``Imperfections in the uniform plane."
 June, 1964.
 5.  Robert S. Yuill, A simulation study of barrier effects
 in spatial diffusion problems."  April, 1965.
 6.  William Warntz, ``A note on surfaces and paths and
 applications to geographical problems."  May, 1965.
 7.  Stig Nordbeck, ``The law of allometric growth."
 June, 1965.
 8.  Waldo R. Tobler, ``Numerical map generalization;"
 and Waldo R. Tobler, ``Notes on the analysis of geographical
 distributions."  January, 1966.
 9.  Peter R. Gould, ``On mental maps."  September, 1966.
 10.  John D. Nystuen, ``Effects of boundary shape and the
 concept of local convexity;"  Julian Perkal, ``On the length
 of empirical curves;" and Julian Perkal, ``An attempt at
 objective generalization."  December, 1966.
 11. E. Casetti and R. K. Semple, ``A method for the
 stepwise separation of spatial trends."  April, 1968.
 12.  W. Bunge, R. Guyot, A. Karlin, R. Martin, W. Pattison,
 W. Tobler, S. Toulmin, and W. Warntz, ``The philosophy of maps."
 June, 1968.

 Reprints of out-of-print textbooks.
 Printer and obtainer of copyright permission:  Digicopy Corp.
 Inquire for cost of reproduction---include class size
 1.  Allen K. Philbrick.  This Human World.
 2.  John F. Kolars and John D. Nystuen.  Human Geography. 

 \centerline{\bf INVOLVING {\sl Solstice} BOARD MEMBERS,}

 1.  {\sl Practical Handbook of Curve Fitting\/}, edited by
     Sandra L. Arlinghaus with Associate Editors William C.
     Arlinghaus, William D. Drake, and John D. Nystuen.
     Published by CRC Press, forthcoming, April, 1994.
     Principal author:  S. L. Arlinghaus.


        Population Data Analysis;
        Epidemiology Data Analysis;
        Agriculture Data Analysis;
        Biodiversity Data Analysis;
        Soils and Forestry Data Analysis;
        Education Data Analysis;
        Transportation and Communication Data Analysis;
        Environmental Toxicity Data Analysis;
        Urbanization Data Analysis;
        World Trade Data Analysis;
        Index of Figure Captions and Table Titles.
 2.  {\sl Practical Handbook of Digital Mapping\/}, edited by
     Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Specialist Associate Editor Robert
     F. Austin, Associate Editors William C. Arlinghaus, 
     William D. Drake, and John D. Nystuen.
     Published by CRC Press, forthcoming, February, 1994.
     Principal authors of text:  R. F. Austin and S. L. Arlinghaus.
     Principal author of Case Study: John D. Nystuen

 3.  {\sl Fractals in Geography\/}, Edited by Nina Siu-Ngan Lam
     and Lee De Cola.  Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993.

     Authors:  Nina Siu-Ngan Lam,
               Lee De Cola,
               Peter A. Burrough,
               Michael F. Goodchild,
               Brian Klinkenberg,
               Jonathan D. Phillips,
               Daniel Laavallee,
               Shaun Lovejoy,
               Daniel Schertzer,
               Philippe Ladoy,
               Roy E. Plotnick,
               Karen Prestegaard,
               Sandra L. Arlinghaus,
               Michael Batty,
               A. Stewart Fotheringham,
               Paul Longley,
               Hong-Lie Qiu
               Rui Zhao
               Nan Jiang
               Keith C. Clarke

 4.  {\sl Population --- Environment Dynamics\/}, edited by 
 Gayl D. Ness, William D. Drake, and Steven R. Brechin,
 Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1993.

 This  book  has  15 chapters organized into four sections plus a
 final  section  ``Summary,  conclusions,  and next steps" by the
 editors.  It also has a Reference listing, information about the
 contributing authors, and an index.  The book  is  456 pages and
 costs \$45.
 The titles of the four dominant sections are:

 Global Perspectives:
   History, Ideas, Sectoral Changes, and Theories.

 The State as Actor:
   Population --- Environment Dynamics in Large Collectivities.

 The State as Environment:
   Population --- Environment Dynamics in Small Communities.

 Emergent Ideas:
   Theory and Method.

 5.  ``Electronic geometry."  Sandra Lach Arlinghaus.
      {\sl Geographical Review\/}, Vol. 83, No. 2, April 1993,
      pp. 160-169.
 1.    The ESRI University Lab Kit, donated to the University of
 Michigan, as a result of interactive work between IMaGe, Robert
 F. Austin, and ESRI, is up and running; it is seeing  good  use
 by students, Teaching Assistants, and  faculty  in a variety of 

 2.  In  the  Fall  of  1992,  Bill  Drake  taught  a  course  in
 ``Transition Theory" (and invited Sandy  Arlinghaus  to co-teach
 it) in the School of Natural Resources  and the Environment.  It
 was  quite  popular,  and  this  course that was experimental in
 nature  in  1992-93  became  part  of  the  permanent   graduate
 curriculum.  A monograph written  primarily by the students, and
 published by SNR and E, came from that course.  The authors were:

 Dawn M. Anderson, Katharine A. Duderstadt, Eugene A. Fosnight,
 Katharine Hornbarger, Deepak Khatry, Catherine MacFarlane,
 Gary Stahl, Stephen Uche, Hurng-jyuhn Wang, and Sandra 
 Arlinghaus and William Drake.

 As this year's course draws to a close, another monograph is
 forthcoming.  Its authors are:
 Tatiana Bailey, Sanjay Baliga, Brent Blair, Tamara Carnovsky,
 John Castanon, Juan Carlos Cervantes, Bruce Frayne, Ilia
 Hartasanchez H., Kameshwari Pothukuchi, Roy Rojas Montero,
 Rhonda Ryznar, Suzy Salib, Caroline Stem, Kim Stone,
 Amy Sullivan, Noreen White,

 \noindent and Sandra L. Arlinghaus and William D. Drake are editors.   

 3.  IMaGe Director S. L. Arlinghaus has been appointed an
 Adjunct Professor in the School of Natural Resources and 
 Environment of The University of Michigan.