Work Description

Files provided in this data repository:

config_record.csv - configuration file for this L2SWBM run. An R script reads this file, and performs the computations and writing of BUGS (Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling) code necessary to feed into JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler), which runs the model. See the following for more information:

Lunn, D.J., Thomas, A., Best, N. and Spiegelhalter, D., 2000. WinBUGS-a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Statistics and computing, 10(4), pp.325-337.

Plummer, M., 2003, March. JAGS: A program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using Gibbs sampling. In Proceedings of the 3rd international workshop on distributed statistical computing (Vol. 124, No. 125, p. 10).

- [possibly "y"][lake abbreviation][water balance component]_ALL_12FF_1980_1_2015_12_1000000_Record_F.csv - summary data files for the water balance components across all of the lakes. Lake abbreviations are as follows, with lake name first, followed by abbreviation:

-- Superior, superior
-- Michigan-Huron, miHuron
-- St. Clair, clair
-- Erie, erie
-- Ontario, ontario

-- Water balance components are as follows:

-- Precipitation, Precip
-- Evaporation, Evap
-- Runoff, Runoff
-- Connecting Channel Outflow, Outflow
-- Diversion, Diversion
-- Change in Storage, DStorePP
-- Net Basin Supply, NBS

-- Units are in millimeters over the respective lake's surface, except for connecting channel outflows, diversions, and St. Clair net basin supply.

-- The comma delimited summary files have 5 columns, which from left to right are:

-- Year
-- Month
-- Median inference
-- 2.5 percentile inference
-- 97.5 percentile inference

- L2SWBM_ALL_PP_12FF_1980_1_2015_12_1000000_Record_F.RData - The RData file for use in R to further process model output. You may load the file into R and type "ls()" to view the contents of the file. Relevant data objects are highlighted below:

-- [lake abbreviation][variable]_Prior - the data used to develop prior distributions for the specified component and lake, 1950-1979
-- [lake abbreviation][variable]_A - the data used for the analysis period and likelihood functions, 1980-2015, for the specified component and lake
-- [lake abbreviation][variable](Log)Prior[Mean, Precision, Rate, Shape] - calendar month prior distribution parameters for the specified component and lake, calculated from the prior data mentioned above
-- [lake abbreviation][variable]Src - source of data by column
-- jMod: The JAGS model in BUGS, can be used to re-initialize the model for further analysis
-- jSum: Summary statistics from the model run. Columns are - Mean, Standard Deviation, 2.5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 97.5% (percentiles), and the n-effective value. Variable names are typically: (possibly y)[lake abbreviation][water balance component](possibly a number to indicate observation number, and PP for Posterior Predictive)[[month of analysis]]
-- jSample: a 3000 row (samples) by n-variables column matrix of MCMC samples to further analyze


Further questions can be sent to joeseph@umich.edu

Thanks!