The Impact of Agricultural Policy Reforms on the Output of Selected Crops in Niger

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of recent agricultural policy reforms on the output of millet-sorghum and cowpeas in Niger. The methodology consists of specifying supply-demand models of the millet-sorghum and cowpea markets, using these models to derive equations which show how the output of each crop is determined, estimating the equations with data from 1970-86, using these estimated equations to predict output during the post-reform years beginning with 1987, and comparing the predictions with actual levels of output. Considered together, the results for millet-sorghum and cowpeas provide plausible evidence that the reforms had a significantly positive effect on output. The paper concludes with some proposals for improving the quality and quantity of data used in the analysis.