Correlations Between Population Growth and Economic Growth

Abstract

In discussions of how population growth affects the growth of per captia income, studies are often cited which show that the two variables are uncorrelated cross-sectionally. Sometimes it is then inferred that the Malthusian scenario, according to which rapid population growth reduces economic welfare, is mistaken. This paper reviews the simple cross-sectional correlations between population growth and per capita income growth appearing in earlier studies, and uses both old and new data sets to obtain soem more correlations. It is concluded that for periods during the last forty years, the correlations among low-income countries tend to be zero, while those among high-income countries and among all countries combined tend to be negative. The limitations of simple correlation for inferring causal linkages between population growth and per capita income growth are also discussed.