Demographic and Other Determinants of Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper describes an econometric investigation of the effects of population growth on the growth of output. A structural model yields a reduced-form equation in which output growth is a function of exogenous variables both demographic and nondemographic. This equation is estimated from data on 142 recent six-year growth periods in 85 countries at all levels of per capita income. Higher fertility is found to lower output growth in the short run and raise it in the long run (after twelve years). Export orientation and currency depreciation are not found to have the strong stimulative effects commonly reported.