Apartheid, the Job Ladder, and the Evolutionary Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from South African Manufacturing, 1960-77

Abstract

This paper explores various conceptions of the South African "evolutionary hypothesis," whereby non-white economic opportunities are perceived as rising over time as a result of innate market forces. It then develops in detail one of these conceptions, whereby the scarcity of white labor induces a gradual switchover of jobs from whites to non-whites, permitting the latter to move up the "job ladder." The evidence from South African manufacturing over 1960-1977 is then examined. This evidence is largely consistent with the jobs ladder view, but only a small part of the growth of non-white employment in manufacturing can be attributed to such switchovers of white jobs to non-whites.