Some Doubts about Kenya's Future as an Exporter of Manufatures

Abstract

Even for a less developed country, Kenya is heavily involved in foreign trade. Its visible exports amount to more than one fourth of the total output of the "monetized" part of the Kenyan economy. Moreover, the Kenyan export picture is much more varied than that of most African economies. Primary products account for only about half its exports; the remaining half, manufactures, are destined about equally to Kenya's East African Community (EAC) partners and to the rest of the world. Even within its exports of manufactures, Kenya's situation is complex, for the products which it exports to the developed world bear almost no resemblance to those it exports to its neighbors; and there are interesting differences between the exports to its EAC partners and those to other African and Middle Eastern destinations. These differences are explored and the general tenor of my doubts about Kenya's future as an exporter of manufactures is presented in this paper.