An interdisplinary approach to the Little Ice Age and its implications for global change research.

Abstract

The Little Ice Age, a period generally characterized by depressed temperatures and increased precipitation, offers a unique opportunity to study population-environment dynamics under climatic stress in the recent past. Western Europe has an extensively documented Little Ice Age history, roughly spanning the three centuries from 1550 to 1850 A.D., which has been explored in Phase I of this research. The primary outcome of Phase I was an exploratory conceptual model suggesting the interactions of the Little Ice Age climate-society system in western Europe. A transitional research phase served to identify: (1) a systems approach as the appropriate method to quantify this model, and (2) the climatically marginal society of Iceland as the site to apply this modeling effort. The modeling effort itself is encompassed in Phase II, implementing the STELLA II software program to aid in the "retrodiction"$\sp1$ of the Icelandic population during the Little Ice Age. The completed model has been run for various scenarios to gain further insight into the climate-society interaction. ftn$\sp1$Parry, M. L. Climatic Change and the Agricultural Frontier: a research strategy. In T. M. Wigley, M. J. Ingram, and G. Farmer, eds., Climate and History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 314-336; 1981.