View Item 

Show simple item record

It's (Change in) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media, and Public Opinion
dc.contributor.authorSoroka, Stuart N.en_US
dc.contributor.authorStecula, Dominik A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWlezien, Christopheren_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-04T20:36:48Z
dc.date.available2016-04-01T15:21:07Zen
dc.date.issued2015-02en_US
dc.identifier.citationSoroka, Stuart N.; Stecula, Dominik A.; Wlezien, Christopher (2015). "It's (Change in) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media, and Public Opinion." American Journal of Political Science 59(2): 457-474.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0092-5853en_US
dc.identifier.issn1540-5907en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/111207
dc.publisherSageen_US
dc.publisherWiley Periodicals, Inc.en_US
dc.titleIt's (Change in) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media, and Public Opinionen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.rights.robotsIndexNoFollowen_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPolitical Scienceen_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelGovernment, Politics and Lawen_US
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Revieweden_US
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111207/1/ajps12145-sup-0001-text.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111207/2/ajps12145.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/ajps.12145en_US
dc.identifier.sourceAmerican Journal of Political Scienceen_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSanders, David. 1996. “ Economic Performance, Management Competence and the Outcome of the Next General Election.” Political Studies 44 ( 2 ): 203 – 31.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSoroka, Stuart. 2012. “ The Gatekeeping Function: Distributions of Information in Media and the Real World.” Journal of Politics 74 ( 2 ): 514 – 28.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSoroka, Stuart. 2014. Negativity in Democratic Politics: Causes and Consequences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSoroka, Stuart, Stephen Farnsworth, Lori Young, and Andrea Lawlor. 2012. “ Event‐Driven Environmental News in the U.S. and Canada.” Electronic Media and Politics 1 ( 10 ): 143 – 57.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSoroka, Stuart, and Christopher Wlezien. 2010. Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion and Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceStevenson, Randolph T. 2001. “ The Economy and Policy Mood: A Fundamental Dynamic of Democratic Politics? ” American Journal of Political Science 45 ( 3 ): 620 – 33.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceStevenson, Robert L., William J. Gonzenbach, and Prabu David. 1994. “ Economic Recession and the News.” Mass Communications Review 21: 4 – 19.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceStock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 1989. “ New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, ed. Oliver Blanchard and Stanley Fischer. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 351 – 409.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceTrumbo, Craig. 1995. “ Longitudinal Modeling of Public Issues: An Application of the Agenda‐Setting Process to the Issue of Global Warming.” Journalism and Mass Communication Monographs 152: 1 – 57.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceVaccara, Beatrice N., and Victor Zarnovitz. 1978. “ Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators.” NBER Working Paper No. 244.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceVan Der Brug, Wouter, Cees Van DerEijk, and Mark Franklin. 2007. The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWlezien, Christopher. 1995. “ The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending.” American Journal of Political Science 39 ( 4 ): 981 – 1000.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWlezien, Christopher. 2005. “ On the Salience of Political Issues: The Problem with ‘Most Important Problem’.” Electoral Studies 24 ( 4 ): 555 – 79.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWlezien, Christopher, and Robert S. Erikson. 1996. “ Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts.” American Politics Research 24 ( 4 ): 492 – 505.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWood, B. Dan, Chris T. Owens, and Brandy M. Durham. 2005. “ Presidential Rhetoric and the Economy.” Journal of Politics 67 ( 3 ): 627 – 45.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWu, H. Dennis, Robert L. Stevenson, Hsiao‐Chi Chen, and Z. Nuray Guner. 2002. “ The Conditioned Impact of Recession News: A Time‐Series Analysis of Economic Communication in the United States, 1987–1996.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 14 ( 1 ): 19 – 36.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceYoung, Lori, and Stuart Soroka. 2012. “ Affective News: The Automated Coding of Sentiment in Political Texts.” Political Communication 29 ( 2 ): 205 – 31.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAalberg, Toril, Jesper Strömbäck, and Claes H. de Vreese. 2012. “ The Framing of Politics as Strategy and Game: A Review of Concepts, Operationalizations and Key Findings.” Journalism 13 ( 2 ): 162 – 78.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAbramowitz, Alan I. 1988. “ An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes.” PS: Political Science and Politics 21 ( 4 ): 843 – 47.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAltheide, David L. 1997. “ The News Media, the Problem Frame, and the Production of Fear.” The Sociological Quarterly 38 ( 4 ): 647 – 68.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAlvarez, Michael, and Jonathan Nagler. 1995. “ Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 39 ( 3 ): 714 – 44.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAnderson, Christopher J., and Christopher Wlezien. 1997. “ The Economics of Politics in Comparative Perspective Revised.” Political Behavior 19 ( 1 ): 1 – 6.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBartels, Larry, and John Zaller. 2001. “ Presidential Vote Models: A Recount.” PS: Political Science and Politics 34: 9 – 20.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBennett, W. Lance. 1997. “ Cracking the News Code: Some Rules That Journalists Live By.” In Do the Media Govern? Politicians, Voters, and Reporters in America, ed. Shanto Iyengar and Richard Reeves. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 103 – 17.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBlood, Deborah J., and Peter C. B. Phillips. 1995. “ Recession Headline News, Consumer Sentiment, the State of the Economy and Presidential Popularity: A Time Series Analysis 1989–1993.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 7 ( 1 ): 2 – 22.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBlood, Deborah J., and Peter C. B. Phillips. 1997. “ Economic Headline News on the Agenda: New Approaches to Understanding Causes and Effects.” In Communication and Democracy: Exploring the Intellectual Frontiers in Agenda‐Setting Theory, ed. Maxwell McCombs, Donald L. Shaw, and David Weaver. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 97 – 113.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBoomgaarden, Hajo G., Joost van Spanje, Rens Vliegenthart, and Claes H. de Vreese. 2011. “ Covering the Crisis: Media Coverage of the Economic Crisis and Citizens’ Economic Expectations.” Acta Politica 46 ( 4 ): 353 – 79.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBoykoff, Maxwell T., and Jules M. Boykoff. 2007. “ Climate Change and Journalistic Norms: A Case Study of U.S. Mass Media Coverage.” Geoforum 38 ( 6 ): 1190 – 1204.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCampbell, James. 1996. “ Polls and Votes: The Trial‐Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns.” American Politics Research 24 ( 4 ): 408 – 33.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCarroll, Christopher D. 2003. “ Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 ( 1 ): 269 – 98.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceChappell, Henry, and William R. Keech. 1985. “ A New View of Political Accountability of Economic Performance.” American Political Science Review 79 ( 1 ): 10 – 27.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceClarke, Harold D., and Marianne C. Stewart. 1995. “ Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered.” British Journal of Political Science 25 ( 2 ): 145 – 70.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceConference Board. 2001. Business Cycle Indicators Handbook. New York: Conference Board.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDe Boef, Suzanna, and Luke Keele. 2008. “ Taking Time Seriously.” American Journal of Political Science 52 ( 1 ): 184 – 200.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDe Boef, Suzanna, and Paul Kellstedt. 2004. “ The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence.” American Journal of Political Science 48 ( 4 ): 933 – 49.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDoepke, Jorg, Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, and Jirka Slacalek. 2008. “ The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations.” B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8 ( 1 ): 1 – 23.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDoms, Mark, and Norman Morin. 2004. “ Consumer Sentiment, the Economy, and the News Media.” Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco Working Paper 2004‐09.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDurr, Robert H. 1992. “ An Essay on Cointegration and Error Correction Models.” Political Analysis 4: 185 – 228.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDurr, Robert H. 1993. “ What Moves Policy Sentiment? ” American Political Science Review 87 ( 1 ): 158 – 70.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceErikson, Robert S. 1989. “ Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote.” American Political Science Review 83 ( 2 ): 567 – 73.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceErikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 2002. The Macro Polity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceErikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 2012. The Timeline of Presidential Elections. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFan, David. 1993. “ Predictions of Consumer Confidence/Sentiment from the Press.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Association of Public Opinion Research.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFarnsworth, Stephen J., and S. Robert Lichter. 2006. The Mediated Presidency: Television News and Presidential Governance. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFarnsworth, Stephen J., and S. Robert Lichter. 2011. “ The Return of the Honeymoon: Television News Coverage of New Presidents, 1981–2009.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 41 ( 3 ): 590 – 603.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFiorina, Morris. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFogarty, Brian J. 2005. “ Determining Economic News Coverage.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 17 ( 2 ): 149 – 72.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFuller, Jack. 2010. What Is Happening to News? The Information Explosion and the Crisis in Journalism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceGlynn, Carroll J., Michael E. Huge, and Lindsay H. Hoffman. 2008. “ Did the Media Help Inflate the Housing Bubble? Media Coverage of Real Estate Markets in Times of Change.” Presented at the Association for Education in Journalism & Mass Communication Annual Conference.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceGoidel, Kirby, Stephen Procopio, Dek Terrell, and H. Dennis Wu. 2010. “ Sources of Economic News and Economic Expectations.” American Politics Research 38 ( 4 ): 759 – 77.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHappy, J. R. 1986. “ Voter Sensitivity to Economic Conditions: A Canadian‐American Comparison.” Comparative Politics 19 ( 1 ): 45 – 56.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHarrington, David E. 1989. ‘‘ Economic News on Television: The Determinants of Coverage.’ Public Opinion Quarterly 53 ( 1 ): 566 – 74.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHaller, H. Brandon, and Helmut Norpoth. 1997 “ Reality Bites: News Exposure and Economic Opinion.” Public Opinion Quarterly 61: 555 – 75.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHetherington, Marc J. 1996. “ The Media's Role in Forming Voters’ National Economic Evaluations in 1992.” American Journal of Political Science 40 ( 2 ): 372 – 95.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHibbs, Douglas A., Jr. 1987. The American Political Economy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHodrick, Robert, and Edward C. Prescott. 1997. “ Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 29 ( 1 ): 1 – 16.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHolbrook, Thomas. 1994. “ Campaigns, National Conditions, and U.S. Presidential Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 38 ( 4 ): 973 – 98.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHollanders, David, and Rens Vliegenthart. 2011. “ The Influence of Negative Newspaper Coverage on Consumer Confidence: The Dutch Case.” Journal of Economic Psychology 32 ( 3 ): 367 – 73.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceJamieson, Kathleen Hall. 1992. Dirty Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKatona, George. 1972. “ Theory of Expectations.” In Human Behavior and Economic Affairs, ed. Burkhard Strumpel, James N. Morgan, and Ernest Zahn. San Francisco, CA: Jossey‐Bass, 549 – 82.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKayser, Mark A., and Christopher Wlezien. 2011. “ Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote.” European Journal of Political Research 50 ( 3 ): 365 – 94.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKlein, Ezra. 2010. “ Do News Media Spend Too Much Time on News? ” Washington Post, June 22. http://goo.gl/g1tWBK.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKuklinski, James H., and Darrell M. West. 1981. “ Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections.” American Political Science Review 75 ( 2 ): 436 – 47.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLamla, Michael J., and Sarah M. Lein. 2008. “ The Role of Media for Consumers’ Inflation Expectation Formation.” KOF Swiss Economic Institute Working Paper 201.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLevanon, Gad, Ataman Ozyildirim, Brian Schaitkin, and Justyna Zabinska. 2011. “ Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions for the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States.” Conference Board Working Paper EPWP1106.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLewis‐Beck, Michael S. 1988a. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLewis‐Beck, Michael S. 1988b. “ Economics and the American Voter: Past, Present, Future.” Political Behavior 19 ( 1 ): 5 – 21.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLewis‐Beck, Michael S., and Mary Stegmaier. 2000. “ Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183 – 219.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLewis‐Beck, Michael S., and Mary Stegmaier. 2007. “ Economic Models of Voting.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Russell Dalton and Hans‐Dieter Klingemann. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 518 – 37.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLinn, Suzanna, Jonathan Nagler, and Marco A. Morales. 2010. “ Economics, Elections, and Voting Behavior.” In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, ed. Jan E. Leighley. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 375 – 96.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLipset, Seymour M. 1993. “ The Significance of the 1992 Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics 26 ( 1 ): 7 – 16.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLockerbie, Brad. 1991. “ Prospective Economic Voting in U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 16 ( 2 ): 239 – 61.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. 1992. “ Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86 ( 3 ): 597 – 611.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMatthews, J. Scott, Mark Pickup, and Fred Cutler. 2012. “ The Mediated Horserace: Campaign Polls and Poll Reporting.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 45 ( 2 ): 261 – 87.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMazur, Allan. 2009. “ American Generation of Environmental Warnings: Avian Influenza and Global Warming.” Human Ecology Review 16 ( 1 ): 17 – 26.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMazur, Allan, and Linling Lee. 1993. “ Sound the Global Alarm: Environmental Issues in the US National News.” Social Studies of Science 23: 681 – 720.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMazur, Allan, and Linling Lee. 2003. “ Sounding the Global Alarm: Environmental Issues in the U.S. National News.” Social Studies of Science 23 ( 4 ): 681 – 720.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMcComas, Katherine, and James Shanahan. 1999. “ Telling Stories about Global Climate Change: Measuring the Impact of Narratives on Issue Cycles.” Communication Research 26 ( 1 ): 30 – 57.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMcCright, Aaron M., and Riley E. Dunlap. 2003. “ Defeating Kyoto: The Conservative Movement's Impact on U.S. Climate Change Policy.” Social Problems 50 ( 3 ): 348 – 73.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMeyrowitz, Joshua. 1994. “ The (Almost) Invisible Candidate: A Case Study of News Judgment as Political Censorship.” In Controlling Broadcasting: Access Policy and Practice in North America and Europe, ed. Meryl Aldridge and Nicholas Hewitt. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 93 – 107.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceNadeau, Richard, Richard G. Neimi, and Timothy Amato. 1994. “ Expectations and Preferences in British Elections.” American Political Science Review 88 ( 2 ): 371 – 383.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceNadeau, Richard, Richard G. Niemi, and Timothy Amato. 1996. “ Prospective and Comparative or Retrospective and Individual? Party Leaders and Party Support in Great Britain.” British Journal of Political Science 26 ( 2 ): 245 – 58.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceNadeau, Richard, Richard G. Niemi, David P. Fan, and Timothy Amato. 1999. “ Elite Economic Forecasts, Economic News, Mass Economic Judgments, and Presidential Approval.” Journal of Politics 61 ( 1 ): 109 – 35.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferencePatterson, Thomas. 1994. Out of Order. New York: Vintage.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferencePrice, Simon, and David Sanders. 1993. “ Modeling Government Popularity in Postwar Britain: A Methodological Example.” American Journal of Political Science 37 ( 1 ): 317 – 34.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRobinson, Michael, and Margaret Sheehan. 1983. Over the Wire and on TV. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRogers, Mark. 1994. Handbook of Key Economic Indicators. New York: Richard Irwin.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDavis, Richard. 1992. The Press and American Politics. New York: Longman.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSanders, David. 1999. “ Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997.” Electoral Studies 19: 251 – 70.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSanders, David. 2000. “ The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy in the Popularity Functions: How Much Do Voters Need to Know? A Study of British Data, 1974–97.” Electoral Studies 19 ( 2 ): 275 – 94.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSanders, David, David Marsh, and Hugh Ward. 1993. “ The Electoral Impact of Press Coverage of the British Economy, 1979–87.” British Journal of Political Science 23 ( 2 ): 175 – 210.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceShah, Dhavan V., Mark D. Watts, David Domke, David P. Fan, and Michael Fibison. 1999. “ News Coverage, Economic Cues, and the Public's Presidential Preferences, 1984–1996.” Journal of Politics 61 ( 4 ): 914 – 43.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceShoemaker, Pamela J., and Tim P. Vos. 2009. Gatekeeping Theory. New York: Routledge.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSinger, Matthew M., and Ryan E. Carlin. 2013. “ Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development and the Nature of Economic Voting.” Journal of Politics 75 ( 3 ): 730 – 42.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSkewes, E.A. 2007. Message Control: How News is Made on the Presidential Campaign Trail. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSoroka, Stuart. 2006. “ Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information.” Journal of Politics 68 ( 2 ): 372 – 85.en_US
dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


Files in this item

Name:
ajps12145-sup-0001-text.pdf
Size:
536.5KB
Format:
PDF
View/Open
Name:
ajps12145.pdf
Size:
1.008MB
Format:
PDF
View/Open

Show simple item record

Remediation of Harmful Language

The University of Michigan Library aims to describe its collections in a way that respects the people and communities who create, use, and are represented in them. We encourage you to Contact Us anonymously if you encounter harmful or problematic language in catalog records or finding aids. More information about our policies and practices is available at Remediation of Harmful Language.

Accessibility

If you are unable to use this file in its current format, please select the Contact Us link and we can modify it to make it more accessible to you.