A Dynamic Theory of Party Discipline, Legislator Roll-Call Voting & Electoral Accountability in the U.S. House.

Abstract

The purpose of this dissertation is to explain observed rates of party unity on roll-call voting in the U.S. House, by determining the conditions under which Representatives cross-pressured between party and constituency choose to side with the latter. To help answer this question, I develop a dynamic model of party discipline, legislator vote choice and electoral feedback, and analyze it to develop insights about how partisan context and electoral threat condition the behavior of marginal legislators. I then test the model's predictions, both at the level of the party caucus and at the level of individual legislators. I find strong support for the idea that partisan context conditions the possible dispersion of party unity rates across a legislative caucus, but only mixed support for predictions regarding factors that may affect the responsiveness of individual legislator vote behavior to their own electoral security.