Dictators Who Dominate: Betraying Allies to Gain a Preponderance of Power.

Abstract

As authoritarian leaders rise to power, they require the backing of a group of well-connected, well-organized supporters, who together control a large pool of resources. Every new leader necessarily begins his tenure surrounded by politically powerful kingmakers. Dependent leaders aim to keep these supporters happy by sharing the spoils of office, and they often fall victim to coups when key supporters decide to align their resources behind someone new. An independent leader, by contrast, purges his own inner circle to ensure that the “kingmakers” are too weak to remove him from power. Intra-regime purges are a dangerous gamble, but those leaders who survive the short-term repercussions of betraying their supporters gain a more secure hold on power. Purges break up concentrated stocks of political resources and make it more difficult for would-be coup plotters to coordinate to overthrow the leader. Political purges can shift the intra-regime balance of power in favor of the leader, providing increased security and autonomy, and longer leadership tenure.