Is America becoming more equal for children? Changes in intergenerational economic mobility.

Abstract

Intergenerational economic mobility is a good measure of the extent of equality and fairness in a society. The degree to which a society provides equivalent opportunity for economic success to children from diverse backgrounds is considered by many to be a critical measure of its equality and fairness. In the U.S. and other countries, it has been a long-sought public goal to promote intergenerational economic mobility, especially the upward mobility of low-income children. This dissertation examines how intergenerational economic mobility has changed in the United States since the late 1960s. Chapter 1 reviews theories on intergenerational socioeconomic mobility and existing empirical studies on changes in educational, occupational, and economic mobility. This chapter concludes that previous research is not able to answer the following questions: (1) How has the transmission of low- and high-income status changed over time? and (2) Has intergenerational mobility changed differently by gender? Chapter 2 examines whether the transmission of low- and high-income status has changed among sons. This chapter compares two cohorts (sons who were 11--15 years old in 1969 vs. sons who were at the same age in 1979) from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Results from two logistic regressions show that the transmission of high-income status significantly increased while the transmission of low-income status remained stable. These results suggest that it has now become easier for high-income sons to maintain their economically advantaged status than in the past. In contrast, low-income sons' chances of escaping from their economic disadvantage have not increased to the same extent. The last chapter investigates gender differences in changes in intergenerational economic mobility. In chapter 4, I compare seven 2-year birth cohorts from the PSID with those born between 1953 and 1966. The measure of adulthood economic status is family income at age 30. OLS regression results show that the patterns of change in intergenerational income correlations among daughters differ from that among sons. Intergenerational income correlations increased between the second and fifth cohorts and then decreased for the last two cohorts among daughters while they continuously decreased since the second cohorts among sons. These findings justify separate analyses for women in studying intergenerational mobility.