The linkage between domestic and international conflict: The case of Japanese foreign policy, 1890--1941.

Abstract

This dissertation examines the linkage between domestic and international conflict. It considers how domestic political unrest influences the foreign policy decisions of government leaders to begin negotiations and to withhold concessions, as well as decisions to initiate, and subsequently escalate military conflicts. I argue that when domestic political conflicts arise between incumbent leaders and their own political allies, the resulting unrest has a significant impact on leaders' foreign policy decisions. I test my argument by exploring Japanese domestic politics and foreign relations with four rival countries (China, Russia, Great Britain and the United States) for the period between 1890 and 1941. The first significant finding is that there is a conditional link between leaders' diversionary behavior abroad and the political conflict they confront at home. Japanese leaders are inclined to pursue confrontational foreign policy choices for domestic political considerations only when they are faced with an erosion of coalition support at home. In other words, only a certain type of domestic political unrest is expected to provide leaders with an incentive to choose aggressive foreign policies for the purpose of offsetting domestic political crises. A second important finding is that aggressive foreign policies that Japanese leaders consider using as diversionary tactics include not only initiatives to threaten or use force against foreign rival states, but also decisions to take a harder line in negotiations as well as to escalate military confrontations. My results show that Japanese leaders who are faced with a loss of coalition support are more likely to take initiatives to threaten or actually use force rather than simply taking diplomatic initiatives for a diversionary effect. In addition, these politically insecure leaders are more likely to withhold concessions in negotiations and more likely to escalate ongoing military conflicts as a way of rallying domestic support for the leadership. These findings are drawn from the estimation of multivariate statistical models that explains variation in Japanese diplomatic and military policies during the pre-WWII period. Case studies are also conducted to illustrate the impact of domestic political unrest on foreign policy actions of Japanese government as suggested by statistical tests.