Capturing context: Conceptual and statistical representations of ecological risk.

Abstract

This dissertation examines how scholars have attempted to capture social contexts via theoretical and empirical representations of ecological risk, proposes a theoretical framework for thinking about risk, and tests two theoretical propositions about the nature of risk. The first study begins by considering the nature and consequences of diversity in risk terminology. A review of studies published in leading psychology journals indicates that explicit definitions of risk are the exception rather than the rule, and that definitions of risk and risk factors vary considerably. This chapter goes on to articulate four defining properties of risk (risk as a process, risk as a causal framework, risk as time-sensitive and developmental, and risk as conditional) and to propose an integrative process model of risk. The next two studies examine the effect of ecological adversities experienced during high school on risk for school dropout with particular attention to two principles of the theoretical model: risk as time-sensitive and risk as conditioned on the combination of adversity experienced. Using multiple waves of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the second study examines the length of time for which adversities were experienced and tests whether the effects of adversities are different at different points during adolescence. Replicating previous school dropout research, results indicate the low parent education and indicators of family and neighborhood socioeconomic status increase the risk of school dropout. Results further indicate that considering the chronicity of adversity is important, but that the effects of adversities generally did not differ depending on when they were experienced. The final study uses cluster analyses to group individuals by the number and kinds of adversities they experienced and examines the predictive validity of different configurations of adversity. Results indicate that there are indeed distinct profiles of adversity, with some individuals experiencing only single adversities and others experiencing different combinations of multiple adversities, and that different profiles of adversity confer different degrees of risk for school dropout.