Development Of A Methodology Based On Accident Scenarios To Assess Driver Perceived Injury Risk.

Abstract

This research focuses on a novel exploratory investigation aimed at measuring automobile drivers' perceptions of injury potential encountered on a routine basis in the driving environment. Scenarios based on an authentic accident data base amassed by highway safety researchers are employed in the development of comparative schema. The scenarios represent a balanced exploratory look at each of three major facets of the driving environment; the vehicle, the environment, and the driver. The sample consists of a set of licensed drivers representative of nearly all important driving dimensions. This sample is calibrated in the use of an ordinal injury scale called the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale) which is utilized in expressing perceived injury severity for the set of scenarios. A second aspect of the study considers the exploration of certain attitudinal, demographic and observational attributes as possible predictors of expressed perceived injury scores. Nonparametric methods are used as a primary methodology in comparing the scenario levels of empirical cumulative distribution functions. Preliminary results based on a pilot study of 150 drivers show that driver perceptions of the three elements of highway safety (vehicle, environment, and driver) examined in this study can be reliably characterized in a statistical fashion using a response scale based on degree of injury severity. For most of the scenarios examined, drivers' responses are consistent with actual data, but with inflated perceptions of injuries. Specific differences for certain attitudinal, demographic and observational factors such as driver attitude toward risk, sex, and exposure (miles driven) are suggested by these preliminary results. The method shows promise as a tool for exploring drivers' perceptions and attitudes toward aspects of highway safety known to be important in reducing and preventing injuries and fatalities.