Political stability in Eastern Europe: A case study of Bulgaria.

Abstract

This work examines political stability as a theoretical construct and applies it to Eastern Europe (here defined as Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania) in the period 1966-1991. I offer a new definition of political stability which is measurable across a broad variety of system-types. Afterward, I assess our level of knowledge about stability in Eastern Europe by reviewing the literature on this topic and through rigorous measurement based on the newly formulated definition. Finally, I suggest various explanations of stability in Eastern Europe, focusing on the Bulgarian case. Bulgaria is the object of study because of its seemingly overwhelming stability in the postwar period. Between 1966 and 1988, Bulgaria demonstrated considerable societal stability (few strikes, demonstrations, riots, etc.), but a much higher than expected elite instability (as measured by turnover in the Council of Ministers and Politburo). After the system breakdowns in Eastern Europe in 1989, Bulgarian society remained relatively more stable than most other societies in Eastern Europe. In addition, Bulgaria demonstrated greater elite stability when the Bulgarian Socialist Party (the reformed communists) won the 1990 elections and won only slightly fewer votes than its opposition in the 1991 elections. Bulgaria's stability is explained by the relative economic successes of the Bulgarian Communist Party between World War II and the 1980s, the peculiar nature of the family which lends itself toward conservatism in action, the lack of dissident organizations, and the special relationship between the Communist Party and the masses based on preemptive policymaking. The supporting evidence for these explanations comes primarily from original Bulgarian sources and personal interviews with Party elites in 1989 and 1990 and with other parliamentarians in 1990. This study is valuable for those interested in political stability at a theoretical level, for those who would expand the concept beyond its traditional application to democratic system-types, and for those who are interested in system maintenance in Eastern Europe between 1966 and 1988 and system disintegration between 1989 and 1991.