The social ecology of crime in Saginaw, Michigan.

Abstract

The study of the social ecology of crime traces its origins back to the community studies of Clifford Shaw and Robert McKay in the 1920s and 1930s. They based their model on Burgess's theory of the growth of cities in concentric zones around central business areas. Shaw and McKay found evidence that social disorganization predicted higher crime rates and that these areas of disorganization that they suggested were related to Durkheim's theory of anomie. Later researchers attributed the earlier findings to economic conditions (Bursik, 1984). The current research used police crime report data and demographic data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census for Saginaw, Michigan to analyze social demographic and economic conditions as predictors of crime rates. Clear evidence was found to support the general social ecological theory that crime is the product of social and economic conditions. It was predicted that variables reflecting high levels of social disorganization (anomie) would be positively related to assaultive crimes, and that variables reflecting economic hardship would be positively related to crimes of theft. Unfortunately the variables measuring social disorganization and economic hardship were highly correlated, so that is was impossible to separate their effects. Both social disorganization and economic variables were significant predictors of both assaultive crime and crimes of theft. Recently, in criminal justice circles there has been support for the theory that officially reported crime rates are a measure of police enforcement behavior. The research reported here used a measure of police enforcement action (the number of police officers writing reports within an area) as one predictor variable in the analysis. This variable proved to be a significant predictor of crime rates. Percent of African American residents which has been found in the past to be a significant predictor of crime rates, was not a significant predictor of crime rates in the current analysis except when measures of police enforcement action were dropped from the analysis. This suggests that past claims that race is a major cause of crime are questionable, since the apparent race effects may simply reflect greater police activity in neighborhoods with high proportions of minority group members. Overall, the social ecological model including income and anomie measures was a strong predictor of crime rates. Race was not a significant predictor of crime rates, while organizational variables related to police enforcement actions were significant predictors of crime rates.