Imitation and transition in world politics: Observational learning and the formation of foreign policy preferences.

Abstract

A central, but neglected, issue in the study of international politics is what determines states' foreign policy preferences. Preferences or interests are most often considered either as constant and immutable, or as factors that vary in a random, idiosyncratic way. My dissertation investigates whether the preferences of foreign policy decision makers, and through them those of states, are affected systematically by observation of other states' experiences in international relations. Although there has been some discussion of imitation or emulation in world politics, no previous study has elaborated a theoretical framework for understanding when it is likely to occur and when it is not. Neither has any previous study undertaken a rigorous empirical test of such expectations. I have employed concepts from social psychology and organizational behavior to understand the process of converting lessons into policy. In the dissertation, a set of expectations about the sources of learning is developed and tested on Russian and Ukrainian foreign policies from the fall of the USSR through 1999. Both quantitative analysis (ordered probit) and case studies are used. In response to events perceived as major failures, elite attention tends to turn to foreign experiences of success. This analogy to foreign success is most likely to occur when choices are complex, not dichotomous. In the absence of a formative event including major failure, foreign experience has little effect on policy. The results suggest that, when it operates, imitation is a major factor in determining states' fundamental foreign policy preferences. Comparative case studies illustrate the relevance of imitation for economic and military security.