CEDARâ GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event
Shim, J. S.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Fedrizzi, M.; Förster, M.; Fuller‐rowell, T. J.; Gardner, L. C.; Goncharenko, L.; Huba, J.; McDonald, S. E.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.
2017-10
Citation
Shim, J. S.; Rastätter, L. ; Kuznetsova, M.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Fedrizzi, M.; Förster, M. ; Fuller‐rowell, T. J. ; Gardner, L. C.; Goncharenko, L.; Huba, J.; McDonald, S. E.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L. (2017). "CEDARâ GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event." Space Weather 15(10): 1238-1256.
Abstract
In order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against groundâ based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14â 15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physicsâ based, coupled ionosphereâ thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECUÂ =Â 1016 el mâ 2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.Key PointsTEC and TEC changes during a storm predicted by ionosphere models were compared with groundâ based GPS TEC measurementsSkill scores (e.g., RMSE, NRMSE, and Yields) were calculated for five latitude regions in the selected eight longitude sectorsModel performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude consideredPublisher
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
ISSN
1542-7390 1542-7390
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