Appealing to the Base or to the Moveable Middle? Incumbents’ Partisan Messaging Before the 2016 U.S. Congressional Elections

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dc.contributor.author Hemphill, Libby
dc.contributor.author Shapiro, Matthew A.
dc.date.accessioned 2018-03-28T13:37:03Z
dc.date.available 2018-03-28T13:37:03Z
dc.date.issued 2018-03-28
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/142808
dc.description.abstract Political polarization has been widely discussed in political communication research and the popular press for over half a century. Polarized politicians are sorted into clear camps or teams, and they have little overlap with the other camps, making it hard for them to find any common ground from which to govern. The general sense is that partisanship is increasing (see, e.g., Andris et al., 2015; Baldassarri and Gelman, 2008; Brady and Han, 2006; Poole and Ros enthal, 1984), meaning that politicians are more effectively sorting themselves into non-overlapping groups. The gap between parties may be large or small, and either way, the gap is problematic for multi-party governance. As parties become more extreme, that gap both widens and worsens. In this paper, we examine the partisan messaging of incumbent members of Congress during the 2016 U.S. elections in order to understand how partisan messaging changes around elections so that we can evaluate theories about what factors influence campaign messaging and examine patterns of polarization over time. We test hypotheses driven by campaign theories such as the median voter theorem that predict various strategies for partisan or non-partisan messaging. We found that Democrats and Republicans exhibit different rhetorical patterns in the lead up to the 2016 elections: Democrats decreased their partisanship as the election neared, and Republicans stayed consistent in their messaging. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.rights Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ *
dc.subject social media en_US
dc.subject Congress en_US
dc.subject elections en_US
dc.title Appealing to the Base or to the Moveable Middle? Incumbents’ Partisan Messaging Before the 2016 U.S. Congressional Elections en_US
dc.type Working Paper en_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel Information and Library Science
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel Social Sciences
dc.contributor.affiliationum Information, School of en_US
dc.contributor.affiliationum Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research en_US
dc.contributor.affiliationother Illinois Institute of Technology en_US
dc.contributor.affiliationumcampus Ann Arbor en_US
dc.description.bitstreamurl https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142808/5/Hemphill and Shapiro MPSA 2018 Incumbents Partisan Messaging.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurl https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142808/6/MPSA 2018 Presentation.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurl https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142808/1/Hemphill and Shapiro - Polarization and 2016 Election - MPSA - SUPERSEDED
dc.identifier.source Midwest Political Science Association Meeting en_US
dc.description.mapping -1 en_US
dc.identifier.orcid 0000-0002-3793-7281 en_US
dc.description.filedescription Description of Hemphill and Shapiro MPSA 2018 Incumbents Partisan Messaging.pdf : Main article - corrected regression tables
dc.description.filedescription Description of MPSA 2018 Presentation.pdf : Presentation slides
dc.description.filedescription Description of Hemphill and Shapiro - Polarization and 2016 Election - MPSA - SUPERSEDED : First draft - now superseded by Main article with corrected regression tables
dc.owningcollname Information, School of (SI)
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