View Item 

Show simple item record

When Is Domestic Political Unrest Related to International Conflict? Diversionary Theory and Japanese Foreign Policy, 1890–19411

dc.contributor.authorNicholls, Natsuko H.
dc.contributor.authorHuth, Paul K.
dc.contributor.authorAppel, Benjamin J.
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-15T20:25:10Z
dc.date.available2019-01-15T20:25:10Z
dc.date.issued2010-12
dc.identifier.citationNicholls, Natsuko H.; Huth, Paul K.; Appel, Benjamin J. (2010). "When Is Domestic Political Unrest Related to International Conflict? Diversionary Theory and Japanese Foreign Policy, 1890–19411." International Studies Quarterly 54(4).
dc.identifier.issn0020-8833
dc.identifier.issn1468-2478
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/146888
dc.publisherWiley Periodicals, Inc.
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.titleWhen Is Domestic Political Unrest Related to International Conflict? Diversionary Theory and Japanese Foreign Policy, 1890–19411
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.rights.robotsIndexNoFollow
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPolitical Science
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelSocial Sciences
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.contributor.affiliationumUniversity of Michigan
dc.contributor.affiliationotherUniversity of Maryland
dc.contributor.affiliationotherUniversity of Maryland
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146888/1/j.1468-2478.2010.00620.x.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00620.x
dc.identifier.sourceInternational Studies Quarterly
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorgan, Clifton, and Kenneth Bickers. ( 1992 ) Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 ( 1 ): 25 – 52.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceNish, Ian. ( 1977 ) Japanese Foreign Policy 1869–1942: Kasumigaseki to Miyakezaka. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceNish, Ian. ( 1985 ) The Origins of the Russo‐Japanese War. London: Longman.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceNish, Ian. ( 1990 ) An Overview of Relations between China and Japan, 1895–1945. China Quarterly 124 ( 4 ): 601 – 623.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceOkamoto, Shumpei. ( 1970 ) The Japanese Oligarchy and the Russo‐Japanese War. New York: Colombia University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceOkumura, Fusao. ( 1995 ) The Japanese Oligarchy and the Russo‐Japanese War. New York: Columbia University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferencePaine, S.C.M. ( 2003 ) The Sino‐Japanese War of 1894–1895: Perceptions, Power, and Primacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSathasivam, Kanishkam. ( 2003 ) “No Other Choice”: Pakistan’s Decision to Test the Bomb. In Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making, edited by Alex Mintz. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceScalapino, Robert. ( 1967 ) Democracy and the Party Movement in Prewar Japan. Berkeley: University of California Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceShinobu, Seizaburō. ( 1974 ) Nihon Gaikōshi 1853–1972, Vols 1–2. Tokyo: Mainichi Shimbunsha.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceShiratori, Rei, Ed. ( 1981 ) Nihon no Naikaku, Vols 1–2. Tokyo: Shimpyō ron.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceShūgiin and Sangiin, Eds. ( 1990 ) Gikai Seido Hyaku‐nen shi: Teikoku Gikai shi. Vols 1–2. Tokyo: Ōkura‐shō Insatsu Kyoku.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSimmel, George. ( 1955 ) Conflict and the Web of Group Affiliations. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSmith, Alastair. ( 1996 ) Diversionary Foreign Policy and Democratic Systems. International Studies Quarterly 40 ( 1 ): 133 – 153.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSobek, David. ( 2007 ) Rallying Around the Podesta: Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time. Journal of Peace Research 44 ( 1 ): 29 – 45.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSprecher, Christopher, and Karl DeRouen Jr. ( 2002 ) Israeli Military Actions and Internalization‐Externalization Processes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 ( 2 ): 244 – 259.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceTakeuchi, Tatsuji. ( 1935 ) War and Diplomacy in the Japanese Empire. New York: Doubleday, Doran & Company.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceTarar, Ahmer. ( 2006 ) Diversionary Incentives and the Bargaining Approach to War. International Studies Quarterly 50 ( 1 ): 169 – 188.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceT eikoku G ikai. ( 19751979 ) Teikoku Gikaishi, Vols 1–54. Kyoto: Shakai Mondai Shiryō Kenkyūkai.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceYang, Yinpu. ( 1985 ) Min guo caizheng shi. Beijing: Zhongguo cai zheng jing ji chu ban she.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAkita, George. ( 1967 ) Foundations of Constitutional Government in Modern Japan, 1886–1900. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBanks, Arthur. ( 1994 ) Cross‐National Time‐Series Data Archive. Binghamton, NY: Center for Social Analysis, State University of New York at Binghamton.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBanno, Junji. ( 1992 ) The Establishment of the Japanese Constitutional System. London: Routledge.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBeasley, W.G.. ( 1987 ) Japanese Imperialism 1894–1945. Oxford: Claredon Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBeck, Nathaniel, Jonathan Katz, and Richard Tucker. ( 1998 ) Taking Time Seriously: Time‐Series‐Cross‐Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 ( 4 ): 1260 – 1288.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHuth, Paul, and Todd Allee. ( 2002 ) The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBennett, Scott, and Timothy Nordstrom. ( 2000 ) Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 ( 1 ): 33 – 61.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBrambor, Thomas, William Clark, and Matt Golder. ( 2005 ) Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 ( 1 ): 63 – 82.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBrecher, Michael, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. ( 2000 ) A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBrulé, David J. ( 2008a ) The Poliheuristic Research Program: An Assessment and Suggestions for Further Progress. International Studies Review 10 ( 2 ): 266 – 293.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBrulé, David J. ( 2008b ) Congress, Presidential Approval, and U.S. Dispute Initiation. Foreign Policy Analysis 4 ( 4 ): 349 – 370.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBueno de Mesquita, Bruce. ( 1981 ) The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson, and James Morrow. ( 2003 ) The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceChina Year Book. ( 19121919, 1922, 1924–1928) Shanghai: North China Daily News & Herald.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceChiozza, Giacomo, and H.E. Goemans. ( 2003 ) Peace through Insecurity: Tenure and International Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47 ( 4 ): 443 – 467.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceChiozza, Giacomo, and H.E. Goemans. ( 2004 ) International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient? American Journal of Political Science 48 ( 3 ): 604 – 619.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceClark, David. ( 2003 ) Can Strategic Interaction Divert Diversionary Behavior? A Model of U.S. Conflict Propensity. Journal of Politics 65 ( 4 ): 1013 – 1039.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCoser, Lewis. ( 1956 ) The Function of Social Conflict. New York: Free Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCrowley, James. ( 1966 ) Quest for Autonomy: National Security and Foreign Policy 1930–1938. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceD ai N ihon T eikoku G ikaishi K ankōkai. ( 19261930 ) Dai Nihon Teikoku Gikai shi, Record of the Imperial Japanese Diet. Shizuoka: Dai Nihon Teikoku Gikaishi Kankōkai Shuppankai.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDeRouen Jr, Karl ( 2003 ) Decision Not to Use Force at Dien Bien Phu: A Poliheuristic Perspective. In Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making, edited by Alex Mintz. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDeRouen Jr, Karl, and Shaun Goldfinch. ( 2005 ) Putting the Numbers to Work: Implications for Violence Prevention. Journal of Peace Research 4 ( 1 ): 27 – 45.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDeRouen Jr, Karl, and Christopher Sprecher. ( 2006 ) Arab Behaviour Towards Israel: Strategic Avoidance or Exploiting Opportunities? British Journal of Political Science 36 ( 3 ): 549 – 560.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFordham, Benjamin. ( 1998 ) Partisanship, Macroeconomic Policy, and U.S. Uses of Force, 1949–1994. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 ( 4 ): 418 – 439.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFoster, Dennis M. ( 2008 ) Comfort to Our Adversaries? Partisan Ideology, Domestic Vulnerability, and Strategic Targeting. Foreign Policy Analysis 4 ( 4 ): 419 – 436.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFoster, Dennis M., and Glenn Palmer. ( 2006 ) Presidents, Public Opinion, and Diversionary Behavior: The Role of Partisan Support Reconsidered. Foreign Policy Analysis 2 ( 3 ): 269 – 288.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFujimura, Michio. ( 1973 ) Nisshin Sensō. Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFujiwara, Akira. ( 1961 ) Gunjishi. Tokyo: Tokyo Keizai Shimpōsha.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō. ( 19361963 ) Dai Nihon Gaikō Bunsho. Tokyo: Gaimushō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō. ( 19491951 ) Archives in the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1868–1945. Washington: Photoduplication Service, Library of Congress.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō. ( 19641987 ) Nihon Gaikō Bunsho:Taishō. Tokyo: Gaimushō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō. ( 19651966 ) Nihon Giakō Nenpyō Narabi Shuyō Monjo 1840–1945, Vol. 1. Tokyo: Hara shobō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō. ( 1988 ) Nihon Gaikō Bunsho: Shōwaki I. Tokyo: Gaimushō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō. ( 1996 ) Nihon Gaikō Bunsho: Shōwaki II. Tokyo: Gaimushō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceG aimushō C hōsabu. ( 1998 ) Sekai Taisen Kankei Nihon Gaikō Bunsho. Tokyo: Gaimushō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceGelpi, Chistopher. ( 1997 ) Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 ( 2 ): 255 – 282.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceGhosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. ( 2004 ) The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description. Conflict Management and Peace Science 21: 133 – 154.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHosoya, Chihiro. ( 1971 ) Nichibei Kankei shi. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppan.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHunter, Janet. ( 1984 ) Concise Dictionary of Modern Japanese History. Berkley: University of California Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHuth, Paul, and Ellen Lust‐Okar. ( 1998 ) Foreign Policy Choices and Domestic Politics: A Reexamination of the Link between Domestic and International Conflict. In Conflict in World Politics: Advances in the Study of Crisis, War and Peace, edited by Frank Harvey, and Ben Mor. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceIkei, Masaru. ( 1982 ) Nihon Gaiko shi Gaisetsu. Tokyo: Keiō Tsūshin.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceInoue, Mitsusada, Keiji Nagahara, Kōta Kodama, and Toshikane ŌKubo. ( 19841990 ) Nihon Rekishi Taikei. Vols 1–6. Tokyo: Yamakawa Shuppansha.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceIriye, Akira. ( 1965 ) After Imperialism: The Search for a New Order in the Far East, 1921–1931. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceIriye, Akira. ( 1987 ) The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific. New York: Longman.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceItō, Yukio. ( 1991 ) Shoki Gikai ki no Jiyutō. In Gendai Nihon no Seitō to Kanryō, edited by Yamamoto Shirō. Tokyo: Tokyo Sōgensha.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKajima, Morinosuke, Ed. ( 19701974 ) Nihon Gaikōshi. Tokyo: Kajima Heiwa Kenkyūjo.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKajima, Morinosuke. ( 1980 ) The Diplomacy of Japan 1894–1922, Vols 1–3. Tokyo: Kajima Heiwa Kenkyūjo Shuppan.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceK ajima H eiwa K enkyūjo, Ed. ( 19831985 ) Nihon Gaikō Shuyō Bunsho Nenpyō. Tokyo: Hara Shobō.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKam, Cindy, and Robert J. Franzese. ( 2007 ) Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKatō, Yōko. ( 2002 ) Sensō no Nihon Kingendai shi. Tokyo: Kōdansha.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKing, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg. ( 2000 ) Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 ( 2 ): 341 – 355.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKisangani, Emizet F., and Jeffrey Pickering. ( 2007 ) Diverting with Benevolent Military Force: Reducing Risks and Rising Above Strategic Behavior. International Studies Quarterly 51 ( 2 ): 277 – 299.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceK okushi D aijiten H enshū I inkai, Ed. ( 19791997 ) Kokushi Daijiten, Vols 1–15. Tokyo: Yoshikawa Kōbunkan.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKomiya, Kazuo. ( 1995 ) Shoki Gikaiki no Jōyaku Kaisei Mondai to Seikai Saihen Mondai. Nenpō Kindai Nihon Kenyū 17: 1 – 31.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLeeds, Brett Ashley. ( 2005 ) Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) Codebook. Version 3.0. Available at http://atop.rice.edu/download/ATOPcdbk.pdf. (Accessed October 27, 2008.)
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLeeds, Brett Ashley, and David Davis. ( 1997 ) Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 ( 6 ): 814 – 834.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLeeds, Brett Ashley, Jeffrey Ritter, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, and Andrew Long. ( 2002 ) Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815–1944. International Interactions 28 ( 3 ): 237 – 260.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLevy, Jack. ( 1989 ) The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique. In Handbook of War Studies, edited by Manus I. Midlarsky. London: Unwin‐Hyman.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMacKuen, Michael B. ( 1983 ) Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity. American Journal of Political Science 27 ( 2 ): 165 – 192.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMasumi, Junnosuke. ( 1966 ) Nihon Seitō Shiron, Vols 1–5. Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku Shuppan.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMayo, Marlene, Ed. ( 1970 ) The Emergence of Imperial Japan: Self‐Defense or Calculated Aggression? Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Company.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMeernik, James. ( 2000 ) Modeling International Crises and the Political Use of Military Force by the USA. Journal of Peace Research 37 ( 5 ): 547 – 562.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMeernik, James, and Peter Waterman. ( 1996 ) The Myth of the Diversionary Use of Force by American Presidents. Political Research Quarterly 49 ( 3 ): 573 – 590.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMitani, Taichirō. ( 1997 ) Kindai Nihon no Sensō to Seiji. Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Brandon C. Prins. ( 2004 ) Rivalry and Diversionary Uses of Force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 ( 6 ): 937 – 961.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorley, James, Ed. ( 1974 ) Japan’s Foreign Policy 1868–1941: Research Guide. New York: Columbia University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMutsu, Munemitsu. ( 1982 ) Kenkenroku: A Diplomatic Record of the Sino‐Japanese War, 1894–1995. Translated by Gordon Mark Berger. Tokyo: Tokyo University Press.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMyers, Ramon, and Mark Peattie, Eds. ( 1984 ) The Japanese Colonial Empire, 1895–1945. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


Files in this item

Name:
j.1468-2478.2010.00620.x.pdf
Size:
155.2KB
Format:
PDF
View/Open

Show simple item record

Remediation of Harmful Language

The University of Michigan Library aims to describe library materials in a way that respects the people and communities who create, use, and are represented in our collections. Report harmful or offensive language in catalog records, finding aids, or elsewhere in our collections anonymously through our metadata feedback form. More information at Remediation of Harmful Language.

Accessibility

If you are unable to use this file in its current format, please select the Contact Us link and we can modify it to make it more accessible to you.