Zoning Change Decisions in Ann Arbor, Michigan: Theory and Empirical Evidence.

Abstract

This study presents first, alternative theories of decision-making regarding proposed zoning amendments and second, empirical tests of these alternative hypotheses using data on zoning changes in Ann Arbor, Michigan over the period 1969-1978. The theoretical portion of the thesis builds on public choice theory to generate theories of decision-making by the city council, the city planning commission and the city planning department. The major theories discussed are theories of utility maximization and social welfare maximization, but these are compared to two simpler non-economic theories also. In addition, this section builds a simple theory of citizen and developer input into the zoning decision process. The data set includes observations on 240 zoning changes considered over a ten-year period in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It is argued that an analysis of the zoning decision-making process in this city is of interest because Ann Arbor is fairly typical of either a medium-sized city or of a central city within an SMSA in the United States. The methodology of the study includes primarily the use of ordinary least squares regression analysis and a linear probability model, but the results of this approach are shown to be very similar to the results achieved by using a binomial logit regression model. The regressions presented predict the overall decision of the city planning department, the planning commission and city council as well as votes by individual Republican and Democratic councilors. Some of the interesting results of this study include that while the decisions of the planning department are influenced primarily by considerations of "good planning," such as consistency with Ann Arbor's general development plan, future employment in the private sector may influence zoning decisions made by the planning director. The city council appears to be more responsive to citizen input than is the planning commission, but there is no evidence that concern for re-election is the reason behind the difference in sensitivity to citizen response. According to these results, city councilors weigh concerns of both citizens and developers in deciding upon a proposed rezoning. Furthermore, it appears that councilors also respond to the intensity of preferences as well as quantity of citizen input. Council members weigh the interests of citizens in their own wards more heavily than interests of other citizens in the community when making a zoning decision and likewise the input of an owner of a parcel is weighed more heavily than other citizen input when council is deciding a city initiated zoning change. Finally, it is concluded that since benefits and costs of all parties are weighed to some extent in zoning decisions made, and intensity of preferences appear to be responded to, the zoning decision process in Ann Arbor can be said to be relatively efficient. Some policy proposals that could make marginal improvements in the efficiency of the zoning process are cited.