Migration and Money Flows in Brazil - a Spatial Analysis.

Abstract

This research focuses on an analysis of the relationship between state to state population and income flows, and regional disparities in income levels in Brazil for 1950 and 1970. Flows are described by analogy to "winds" and regional income disparities by analogy to "income fronts". The notion of "income fronts" originates with Warntz and was developed in an analysis of the relationship between income potential and income density. The flow of money and the migration of population in Brazil are asymmetrical. Tobler has developed a method by which such asymmetry of flow can be graphically represented, a method which produces a result which he has described as representing a flow field analogous to "wind." In addition to the exploration of the relationship between fronts and winds in space, tentative predictions can be made concerning the passing of income fronts and the associated dissipation of winds. Chapter I, besides a description of the data, is an overview of the inequality problems in Brazil; the objectives of the research are delineated and a simple hypothesis about the general directions of the flow is formulated. Two points of view related to regional income inequalities are confronted: the school of social physics and the Heckscher-Ohlin school which defend the principle of stable equilibrium, and the cumulative causation school which agrees for principle of "convergence". Chapter II reviews the gravity model of human interaction with its problems and limitations, and reviews the models of movement of capital. Warntz's approach and the empirical results for 1950 and 1970 are represented in Chapter III. Tobler's approach is discussed Chapter IV and the conclusions, limitations of the work and avenues for further research are given in the final chapter. A similar overall pattern of movement of money and people was found for Brazil during the years of 1950 and 1970. Population and money grow in same consistent southerly direction, which suggests a tendency toward convergence of money and people or a concentration of income in the southeast region.