Migration from North China to Manchuria: an Economic History, 1891-1942.

Abstract

One of the largest population movements of modern history was the migration from the North China provinces of Hebei and Sh and ong to Manchuria in the first half of the twentieth century. Annual migration averaged nearly 500,000 people, of whom two-thirds eventually returned home. Total net migration in this period amounted to over 8 million people. This study examines the migration from three different approaches. First, the history of the migration is analyzed with reference to the geography of North China and Manchuria. Second, a quantitative description of the migration is developed in the form of consistent series of data on the migration itself and on key forces which influenced it: railway development, foreign trade, and life-threatening events. Finally, the relationship between the migration, economic growth, and life-threatening events is investigated by the techniques of econometric analysis. A major contribution is the derivation of data on the numbers of migrants in the years from 1891 to 1921. Previously, the only reliable quantitative information on the migration was a series of studies in Japanese, carried out in the 1920s and 1930s by the Research Department of the South Manchuria Railway Company. This study reconstructs the estimating methods of the Japanese researchers and calculates comparable series based on passenger records reported by the Chinese Maritime Customs service. The econometric analysis is based on a model which postulates that migration is a response to differences in expected future income streams at home and at the destination. Income is seen as determined by the level of economic activity and the supply of labor, and as negatively affected by the incidence of disasters. Regression analysis finds that the migration was significantly stimulated by railway activity and foreign trade in Manchuria, and by the supply of labor and natural disasters in North China; it was retarded by railway activity in North China, and by the supply of labor and warfare in Manchuria. A clear distinction is found between the highly variable pattern of migration from the North China Plain, and the more steady circular flow from the Sh and ong Peninsula.