A Multinomial Logit Analysis of the Choice of Transportation Mode.

Abstract

A multinomial logit model of the choice of transportation mode for commuting is developed. The specification is refined using panel data on male household heads from 1969-1973. The model is then estimated separately for households with four different levels of automobile stock using an independent set of panel data for 1969-1973 and for 1977-1981. The two sets of estimates are used to conclude that there was a structural shift in the model in the mid-seventies: with respect to the choice of transportation mode, people who moved after the OPEC oil price increase bore greater similarity to the 1969-1973 sample then did those who had not moved and therefore had not adjusted the length of their commute or the transportation available to them in the new era of higher prices. Households with more cars were found to place a higher value on time, indicating that personal characteristics such as impatience may influence a household's perception of how many cars are needed. All the groups examined valued their commuting time much more highly than would be indicated purely by cost; driving alone was the prevalent mode of transportation in both time periods. Despite increases in the number of working women and other demographic trends that might have been expected to increase the fraction of the sample using public transportation, this fraction fell in the later time period while the fraction of households car-pooling increased, as one would expect. This discrepancy is thought to be the result of a public transportation policy that cuts service, thus increasing time costs, in an effort to maintain price. This policy has the opposite of its intended effect on ridership because of the high value placed on comfort, convenience, and time.