China's Reproductive Revolution: Individual and Community Determinants of Fertility Variation in Hebei, China.

Abstract

This is a study of the process and causes of fertility change in Hebei province, the People's Republic of China, during the past few decades, with the emphasis on the rapid fertility decline in the 1970s. Using the 1982 Chinese One-Per-Thous and Fertility Survey data and supplementary data for 49 rural communities in Hebei province, analyses of the effects of individual and community characteristics on fertility variation are performed. These analyses are carried out at the individual and the community levels separately and then simultaneously through a multilevel analysis approach. The results of this study support the hypothesis that the fertility decline in China, although rapid and prevalent in the 1970s, is not uniform across local areas. The results show that both individual and community level socioeconomic conditions and the government family planning program have contributed to fertility differentials among individuals and fertility variation across rural communities. An individual level analysis of completed fertility and contraceptive use for two age cohorts shows that both individuals' education and urban/rural residence type are significantly related to fertility differentials, but the same variables are not powerful predictors of the difference in current contraceptive use in 1982. The negative relationship between socioeconomic factors of the individual and her fertility is found to have decreased along with the penetration of the powerful government family planning program. Community level analysis using 49 rural villages shows that better ecological and socioeconomic conditions and higher degrees of collectivity have negative effects on community fertility levels around 1979-1982. These relationships exist independently of the effect of the family planning program. The considerable amount of variation in fertility among local communities can be explained by the difference among communities in ecological, socioeconomic, and organizational conditions, and in family planning program performance. A multilevel analysis incorporating both individual and community level variables is carried out in the dissertation. The results reveal that when both individual and community characteristics are used simultaneously for analysis of individuals' fertility, the education level of a community has a significant effect on individuals' fertility in addition to the effect of socioeconomic and reproductive characteristics of the individual.