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Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?
dc.contributor.authorWang, Shuai
dc.contributor.authorToumi, Ralf
dc.contributor.authorYe, Qinghua
dc.contributor.authorKe, Qian
dc.contributor.authorBricker, Jeremy
dc.contributor.authorTian, Zhan
dc.contributor.authorSun, Laixiang
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-05T15:07:16Z
dc.date.available2022-11-05 11:07:14en
dc.date.available2021-10-05T15:07:16Z
dc.date.issued2021-10
dc.identifier.citationWang, Shuai; Toumi, Ralf; Ye, Qinghua; Ke, Qian; Bricker, Jeremy; Tian, Zhan; Sun, Laixiang (2021). "Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?." Atmospheric Science Letters 22(10): n/a-n/a.
dc.identifier.issn1530-261X
dc.identifier.issn1530-261X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/170249
dc.description.abstractIt has been shown that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) has been increasing together with a poleward migration of TC track. However, their relative importance to TC surge at landfall remains unknown. Here we examine the sensitivity of TC surge in Shanghai to landfall location and intensity with a new dynamical modelling framework. We find a surge sensitivity of 0.8 m (°N)−1 to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s−1)−1 to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long‐term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future.The tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and landfall location are comparably important to case‐by‐case variation in surge.The observed poleward migration of TC tracks may dominate the long‐term surge change.A new dynamical model is developed for TC surge assessment in Shanghai.
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
dc.subject.othertropical cyclone
dc.subject.otherclimate change
dc.subject.otherlandfall
dc.subject.otherstorm surge
dc.titleIs the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?
dc.typeArticle
dc.rights.robotsIndexNoFollow
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelEngineering
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/170249/1/asl21058-sup-0001-Supinfo.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/170249/2/asl21058_am.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/170249/3/asl21058.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/asl.1058
dc.identifier.sourceAtmospheric Science Letters
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dc.working.doiNOen
dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


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