Improved Estimation of Glacial‐Earthquake Size Through New Modeling of the Seismic Source

Abstract

The number of gigaton‐sized iceberg‐calving events occurring annually at Greenland glaciers is increasing, part of a larger trend of accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Though visual observation of large calving events is rare, ∼60 glacial earthquakes generated by these calving events are currently recorded each year by regional and global seismic stations. An empirical relationship between iceberg size and MCSF, a summary measure of glacial‐earthquake size, was recently demonstrated by Olsen and Nettles (2019), https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005054. However, MCSF is known to be sensitive to choices made in modeling the seismic source. We incorporate constraints on the seismic source from laboratory studies of calving and test multiple source time functions using synthetic and observed glacial‐earthquake waveforms. We find that a simple, fixed time function with a shape informed by laboratory results greatly improves estimates of earthquake size. The average ratio of estimated to true peak force values is 1.03 for experiments using our preferred source model, compared with an average of 0.3 for models used in previous studies. We find that maximum‐force values estimated from waveform modeling depend far less on model choices than does MCSF, and therefore prefer maximum force as a measure of glacial‐earthquake size. Using both synthetic and real data, we confirm a correlation between maximum force and iceberg mass. Our results support the possibility of developing useful scaling relationships between seismic observables and physical parameters controlling glacier calving.Plain Language SummaryThe Greenland Ice Sheet is losing ice mass. About half of that ice is lost when large icebergs break off, or calve, from the fronts of glaciers into the ocean. Knowing the sizes of these icebergs would be valuable, but iceberg calving is rarely captured on camera. However, the largest icebergs produce seismic signals when they calve, referred to as glacial earthquakes. We investigate the relationship between the size of an iceberg and the magnitude of the glacial earthquake it produces, building new models to describe the forces that generate a glacial earthquake. Previously, most details of the force evolution during iceberg calving were unknown. We use observations from laboratory experiments conducted using a plastic block in a tank of water, built to mimic the glacier‐ocean setting. We find that incorporating information from these laboratory experiments into our seismic model greatly improves estimates of earthquake size. Using our new models, we confirm a correlation between glacial‐earthquake magnitude and iceberg size, and show that our improved estimates are likely to be more realistic. Our results suggest that using seismic information to estimate iceberg size and related quantities is a promising path forward.Key PointsA physics‐based source model for glacial‐earthquake modeling improves recovery of seismic‐magnitude valuesMaximum force is less sensitive to model choices than MCSF and is preferred for describing glacial‐earthquake sizeA rapid force reversal during iceberg calving is the most important feature to capture in a glacial‐earthquake source model