Optimal diagnostic test allocation strategy during the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond

Abstract

Timely diagnostic testing for active SARS‐CoV‐2 viral infections is key to controlling the spread of the virus and preventing severe disease. A central public health challenge is defining test allocation strategies with limited resources. In this paper, we provide a mathematical framework for defining an optimal strategy for allocating viral diagnostic tests. The framework accounts for imperfect test results, selective testing in certain high‐risk patient populations, practical constraints in terms of budget and/or total number of available tests, and the purpose of testing. Our method is not only useful for detecting infections, but can also be used for long‐time surveillance to detect new outbreaks. In our proposed approach, tests can be allocated across population strata defined by symptom severity and other patient characteristics, allowing the test allocation plan to prioritize higher risk patient populations. We illustrate our framework using historical data from the initial wave of the COVID‐19 outbreak in New York City. We extend our proposed method to address the challenge of allocating two different types of diagnostic tests with different costs and accuracy, for example, the RT‐PCR and the rapid antigen test (RAT), under budget constraints. We show how this latter framework can be useful to reopening of college campuses where university administrators are challenged with finite resources for community surveillance. We provide a R Shiny web application allowing users to explore test allocation strategies across a variety of pandemic scenarios. This work can serve as a useful tool for guiding public health decision‐making at a community level and adapting testing plans to different stages of an epidemic. The conceptual framework has broader relevance beyond the current COVID‐19 pandemic.