Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Great Lakes Ecosystem Services

Abstract

The ecosystem services the Great Lakes provide are imperative in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. To better understand the consequences of climate change and to develop effective means of adapting to them, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the links between climate change and ecosystem services. Validated quantitative models are the best way to project such impacts, however, time, data, and model limitations often make this approach implausible. Alternatively, fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) can be used to encode expert knowledge about interactions among ecosystem components, which then translates that subjective, qualitative data into predictions of the effects of management on an ecosystem. Leveraging interdisciplinary methodology, we predicted which ecosystem services might be at risk and through which pathways climate change will act on provision of those services. Our study found that cultural services such as recreational fishing, boating, and winter recreation are most likely to be negatively impacted whilst birding is expected to have a positive increase. Respondents predicted that supporting/regulating services may increase, with carbon sequestration showing the largest increase largely due to increased primary productivity. Provisioning services saw mixed results with drinking water, wild rice productivity, and commercial shipping recording an increase while commercial fishing showed a negative impact to declining ice cover.