Scaling-up Stakeholder Engagement Efforts to Inform Better Communication & Uptake of NOAA Great Lakes Ice Forecast Information

Abstract

Great Lakes ice cover is integral to human activities in coastal communities and the region overall, from being an obstacle to vessel navigation in the transportation sector to providing an opportunity for winter recreation. Timely, accurate, and usable ice information for a broad and diverse range of users is critical to these activities. Existing satellite and model-based products provide information regarding Great Lakes ice conditions. However, existing products are limited in their spatial and temporal extent, resulting in information gaps for decision-support.To fill this gap, the development of a short-term Great Lakes ice forecast model is underway to be added to the next generation of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS). While this new product is designed specifically to support winter mariners’ decision-making, a critical condition for this is the development of a user interface that supports information usability. In 2019, the project team was awarded a seed grant from the Graham Sustainability Institute at the University of Michigan to conduct a stakeholder engagement needs assessment workshop with 27 participants from the shipping industry, U.S. Coast Guard 9th District, NOAA, and the University of Michigan. This initial effort allowed the team to identify the Great Lakes ice information needs of end-users, and to form high-level recommendations for the user interface of the upcoming ice forecast guidance from NOAA. However, the limited funds did not permit more in-depth stakeholder engagement, submission of formal recommendations to NOAA, or exploration of co-production variables of interest such as uncertainty, information interplay, and credibility. NOAA’s Climate Program Office provided additional support to the project team to gather further stakeholder input to inform future updates to the model, provide recommendations for development of the front-end user interface, and better characterize specific user information needs that NOAA may be able to address through the development of ice information products. In the follow-on project, the project team designed a series of interviews with key informants from organizations that were critical to the flow of information within this network (U.S. and Canadian Coast Guards, U.S. and Canadian Shipping Companies, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). Based on the interview study results, we developed an experimental user interface for a short-term ice forecast prototype, which was presented to stakeholders for their evaluation during two focus groups in 2021. The focus groups consisted of a guided evaluation of the forecast prototype, and a scenario-based exercise to explore how the forecast might be used in a real-world navigation scenario. The results were collectively analyzed to formulate actionable recommendations to the user interface of the upcoming ice forecast guidance from GLOFS. Furthermore, the results provided recommendations for potential future forecast model development, including extending the model coverage to key river corridors and determining acceptable thresholds of forecast accuracy and uncertainty. Overall, the participants expressed satisfaction with the co-production process and are eager to stay invested with further development of the product to ensure it is validated, deployed, and adopted by others in the field. This research approach is applicable to other forecast model products in the research-to-operation transition at NOAA, and is expected to mutually benefit developers and users.