Planning for Climate Migration in Great Lake Legacy Cities

Abstract

The possibility that climate change might make the Great Lakes region (GLR) a more attractive place for people to live has gained traction and attracted media attention. Compared with the dry Southwest, the storm-ridden Gulf region and the sea-level rise exposed East and West Coasts, the GLR may fare relatively favorably due to an abundance of natural resources and projected climate amenities. While the emergence and character of such migration is still uncertain, it is essential that GLR urban communities proactively prepare and plan for such a potential future. Understanding how these shifts might affect residents of GLR communities will be critical for a just and sustainable future and for avoiding exacerbating existing inequalities and climate vulnerabilities. Here we propose new scalable methodologies for inclusive engagement that enable wide-reaching knowledge co-creation (e.g., web-based engagement) that can meet the emergent and diverse challenges communities will face. These methodologies have the potential to not only broaden participation and improve practitioners’ understanding of different GLR communities’ preferences, but also to anticipate emerging tensions and potential synergies associated with increased population pressures.Plain Language SummaryMany are wondering whether the Great Lakes region (GLR) will become a place where people choose to live due to the impacts of climate change. Drought in the Southwest, hurricanes in the Gulf region and sea-level rise on the East and West Coasts might push people to move there. While we do not know if people will come, how many, who they might be, and where they might settle, it is important that GLR communities prepare and plan for a potential future that includes new residents. This is necessary to prevent further negative impacts on the current residents of cities that may already be living in conditions that are unequal, unjust, and vulnerable to climate and environmental impact. We believe that if we work together to envision a future for the GLR that is just and sustainable, we will increase opportunities for both people coming and currently living in the GLR. We propose a new set of methods to engage with different GLR communities using web-based tools for building scenarios that both better captures the diversity of knowledge and perspectives of these communities and supports conversation about how to better prepare for the future while improving conditions for current residents.Key PointsThere is a real possibility that climate change will make the Great Lakes region (GLR) a more attractive place for people to liveWhile the emergence of climate migration is still uncertain, GLR communities must proactively prepare and plan for such a potential futureUnderstanding how migration might affect the GLR is critical for avoiding exacerbating existing inequalities and climate vulnerabilities