Show simple item record

Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes

dc.contributor.authorGupta, Sumedha
dc.contributor.authorMontenovo, Laura
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Thuy
dc.contributor.authorLozano-Rojas, Felipe
dc.contributor.authorSchmutte, Ian
dc.contributor.authorSimon, Kosali
dc.contributor.authorWeinberg, Bruce A.
dc.contributor.authorWing, Coady
dc.date.accessioned2022-12-05T16:39:33Z
dc.date.available2024-02-05 11:39:31en
dc.date.available2022-12-05T16:39:33Z
dc.date.issued2023-01
dc.identifier.citationGupta, Sumedha; Montenovo, Laura; Nguyen, Thuy; Lozano-Rojas, Felipe ; Schmutte, Ian; Simon, Kosali; Weinberg, Bruce A.; Wing, Coady (2023). "Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes." Contemporary Economic Policy 41(1): 166-193.
dc.identifier.issn1074-3529
dc.identifier.issn1465-7287
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/175196
dc.description.abstractUS workers receive unemployment benefits if they lose their job, but not for reduced working hours. In alignment with the benefits incentives, we find that the labor market responded to COVID-19 and related closure-policies mostly on the extensive (12 pp outright job loss) margin. Exploiting timing variation in state closure-policies, difference-in-differences (DiD) estimates show, between March 12 and April 12, 2020, employment rate fell by 1.7 pp for every 10 extra days of state stay-at-home orders (SAH), with little effect on hours worked/earnings among those employed. Forty percentage of the unemployment was due to a nationwide shock, rest due to social-distancing policies, particularly among “non-essential” workers.
dc.publisherWiley Periodicals, Inc.
dc.publisherEconofact
dc.subject.otheremployment
dc.subject.otherclosure policies
dc.subject.otherCOVID-19
dc.subject.otherearnings
dc.titleEffects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes
dc.typeArticle
dc.rights.robotsIndexNoFollow
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelEconomics
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelBusiness and Economics
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/175196/1/coep12582_am.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/175196/2/coep12582.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/175196/3/coep12582-sup-0001_DisclosureForms.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/coep.12582
dc.identifier.sourceContemporary Economic Policy
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMerkl, C. & Wesselbaum, D. ( 2011 ) Extensive versus intensive margin in Germany and the United States: any differences? Applied Economics Letters, 18 ( 9 ), 805 – 808. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2010.507170
dc.identifier.citedreferenceGupta, S., Nguyen, T.D., Lozano Rojas, F., Raman, S., Lee, B., Bento, A. et al. ( 2020 ) Tracking public and private response to the Covid-19 epidemic: evidence from state and local government actions. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceGupta, S., Simon, K. & Wing, C. ( 2020 ) Mandated and voluntary social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2 ( 2020 ), 269 – 326. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0011
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHall, R.E. & Kudlyak, M. ( 2020 ) Unemployed with jobs and without jobs. Working Paper 27886. National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceHumphries, J.E., Neilson, C. & Ulyssea, G. ( 2020 ) The evolving impacts of Covid-19 on small businesses since the CARES Act. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper (2230).
dc.identifier.citedreferenceImberman, S.A., Kugler, A.D. & Sacerdote, B.I. ( 2012 ) Katrina’s children: evidence on the structure of peer effects from hurricane evacuees. The American Economic Review, 102 ( 5 ), 2048 – 2082. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.5.2048
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKahn, L.B., Lange, F. & Wiczer, D.G. ( 2020 ) Labor demand in the time of Covid-19: evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceKong, E. & Prinz, D. ( 2020 ) The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on unemployment during a pandemic. SSRN Working Paper 3581254. SSRN.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLeibovici, F., Santacreu, A.M. & Famiglietti, M. ( 2020 ) Social distancing and contact-intensive occupations. On the economy, St. Louis FED.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLozano-Rojas, F., Jiang, X., Montenovo, L., Simon, K.I., Weinberg, B. & Wing, C. ( 2020 ) Is the cure worse than the disease? Immediate labor market effects of Covid-19 case rates and school closures in the US. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMarinescu, I.E., Skandalis, D. & Zhao, D. ( 2020 ) Job search, job posting and unemployment insurance during the COVID-19 crisis. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3664265. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMervosh, S. & Healy, J. ( 2020 ) Holdout states resist calls for stay-at-home orders: ‘what are you waiting for?’ The New York Times, 3 April, sec. U.S. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/us/coronavirus-states-without-stay-home.html
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMichel-Kerjan, E.O. ( 2010 ) Catastrophe economics: the national flood insurance program. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24 ( 4 ), 165 – 186. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.4.165
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMongey, S. & Weinberg, A. ( 2020 ) Characteristics of workers in low work-from-home and high personal-proximity occupations. Becker Friedman Institute for Economic White Paper.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMontenovo, L., Jiang, X., Rojas, F.L., Schmutte, I.M., Simon, K.I., Weinberg, B.A. et al. ( 2020 ) Determinants of disparities in Covid-19 job losses. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceOhanian, L.E. & Raffo, A. ( 2012 ) Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: new measurement and implications for business cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59 ( 1 ), 40 – 56. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2011.11.005
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRaifman, M. & Raifman, J. ( 2020 ) Disparities in the population at risk of severe illness from Covid-19 by race/ethnicity and income. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 59 ( 1 ), 137 – 139. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.04.003
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRothstein, J. ( 2019 ) The lost generation? Scarring after the great recession. Technical report, Working Paper.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRothstein, J. & Valletta, R.G. ( 2017 ) Scraping by: income and program participation after the loss of extended unemployment benefits. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 36 ( 4 ), 880 – 908. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22018
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRothwell, J. & Van Drie, H. ( 2020 ) The effect of Covid-19 and disease suppression policies on labor markets: a preliminary analysis of the data. Data retrieved on May 24, 2020 from wwww.brookings.edu
dc.identifier.citedreferenceScherpf, E. & Cerf, B. ( 2019 ) Local labor demand and program participation dynamics: evidence from New York SNAP administrative records. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 38 ( 2 ), 394 – 425. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22113
dc.identifier.citedreferenceU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 2020a ) Frequently asked questions: the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on the employment situation for April 2020. Document retrieved on May 6, 2020 from www.bls.gov
dc.identifier.citedreferenceU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 2020b ) Frequently asked questions: the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on the employment situation for March 2020. Document retrieved on May 6, 2020 from www.bls.gov
dc.identifier.citedreferenceU.S. Census Bureau. ( 2019 ) Current population survey: design and methodology, technical paper 77. Technical report.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceVan Rens, T. ( 2012 ) How important is the intensive margin of labor adjustment?: discussion of “Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: new measurement and implications for business cycles” by Lee Ohanian and Andrea Raffo. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59 ( 1 ), 57 – 63. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2011.10.002
dc.identifier.citedreferenceVigdor, J. ( 2008 ) The economic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22 ( 4 ), 135 – 154. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.22.4.135
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWing, C., Simon, K. & Bello-Gomez, R.A. ( 2018 ) Designing difference in difference studies: best practices for public health policy research. Annual Review of Public Health, 39 ( 1 ), 453 – 469. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-040617-013507
dc.identifier.citedreferenceZissimopoulos, J. & Karoly, L.A. ( 2010 ) Employment and self-employment in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Demography, 47 ( 2 ), 345 – 367. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0099
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAllcott, H., Boxell, L., Conway, J., Gentzkow, M., Thaler, M. & Yang, D. ( 2020 ) Polarization and public health: partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104254. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104254
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAaronson, D., Brave, S.A., Butters, R.A. & Fogarty, M. ( 2020 ) The stay-at-home labor market: Google searches, unemployment insurance, and public health orders. Technical report, Chicago Fed Letter, No. 436.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAdams-Prassl, A., Boneva, T., Golin, M. & Rauh, C. ( 2020 ) Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: new survey evidence for the UK. Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series (2020/09).
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBaek, C., McCrory, P.B., Messer, T. & Mui, P. ( 2020 ) Unemployment effects of stay-at-home orders: evidence from high frequency claims data. Technical report, IRLE Working Paper 101-20.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBaker, S.R. & Fradkin, A. ( 2017 ) The impact of unemployment insurance on job search: evidence from Google search data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 99 ( 5 ), 756 – 768. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00674
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBitler, M., Hoynes, H. & Kuka, E. ( 2017 ) Child poverty, the great recession, and the social safety net in the United States. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 36 ( 2 ), 358 – 389. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21963
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBlau, F.D., Koebe, J. & Meyerhofer, P.A. ( 2020 ) Essential and frontline workers in the Covid-19 crisis. Econofact.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBoeri, T., Bruecker, H., Fuchs-Schündein, N. & Mayer, T. ( 2011 ) Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession. Economic Policy, 26 ( 68 ), 697 – 765.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBogage, J. ( 2020 ) Coronavirus unemployment guide: what to do if you get laid off or furloughed. The Washington Post.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBorden, T. ( 2020 ) The coronavirus outbreak has triggered unprecedented mass layoffs and furloughs. Business Insider.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBuera, F.J., Fattal-Jaef, R.N., Hopenhayn, H., Neumeyer, P.A. & Shin, Y. ( 2021 ) The economic ripple effects of Covid-19. Working Paper 28704, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCampello, M., Kankanhalli, G. & Muthukrishnan, P. ( 2020 ) Corporate hiring under Covid-19: labor market concentration, downskilling, and income inequality. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 27208. Available from: https://doi.org/10.3386/w27208
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCheng, W., Carlin, P., Carroll, J., Gupta, S., Rojas, F. L., Montenovo, L. et al. ( 2020 ) Back to business and (re)employing workers? Labor market activity during state Covid-19 reopenings. Working Paper 27419, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceChetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., Stepner, M. & Team, T.O.I. ( 2020 ) How did Covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? A new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data. Working Paper 27431. National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceChoi, H. & Varian, H. ( 2012 ) Predicting the present with Google trends. The Economic Record, 88, 2 – 9. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2012.00809.x
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCoibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. & Weber, M. ( 2020a ) The cost of the Covid-19 epidemic: lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending. Technical report, University of Texas.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCoibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. & Weber, M. ( 2020b ) Labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis: a preliminary view. Technical Report w27017. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCourtemanche, C., Garuccio, J., Le, A., Pinkston, J. & Yelowitz, A. ( 2020 ) Strong social distancing measures in the United States reduced the Covid-19 growth rate: study evaluates the impact of social distancing measures on the growth rate of confirmed Covid-19 cases across the United States. Health Affairs, 39 ( 7 ), 10 – 1377. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608
dc.identifier.citedreferenceCrucini, M.J. & O’Flaherty, O. ( 2020 ) Stay-at-Home orders in a Fiscal union. NBER Working Papers 28182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDaly, M.C. & Hobijn, B. ( 2016 ) The intensive and extensive margins of real wage adjustment. Technical Report 2016-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDasgupta, K. & Murali, S. ( 2020 ) Pandemic containment and inequality in a developing economy.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDingel, J.I. & Neiman, B. ( 2020 ) How many jobs can be done at home? Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceElsby, M.W.L., Hobijn, B. & Şahin, A. ( 2010 ) The labor market in the great recession. Brookings (blog), 1 March 2010. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/the-labor-market-in-the-great-recession/
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFarboodi, M., Jarosch, G. & Shimer, R. ( 2021 ) Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic. Journal of Economic Theory, 196, 105293. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105293
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFaria-e Castro, M. ( 2020 ) Fiscal policy during a pandemic. FRB St. Louis Working Paper Series 2020-006E.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFriedson, A., McNichols, D., Sabia, J. & Dave, D. ( 2020 ) Did California’s shelter in place order work? Early evidence on coronavirus-related health benefits. Working Paper.
dc.identifier.citedreferenceFullman, N., Bang-Jensen, T., Amano, K., Adolph, C. & Wilkerson, J. ( 2020 ) State-level social distancing policies in response to COVID-19 in the US [Data file]. Technical Report Version 1.04.
dc.working.doiNOen
dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


Files in this item

Show simple item record

Remediation of Harmful Language

The University of Michigan Library aims to describe library materials in a way that respects the people and communities who create, use, and are represented in our collections. Report harmful or offensive language in catalog records, finding aids, or elsewhere in our collections anonymously through our metadata feedback form. More information at Remediation of Harmful Language.

Accessibility

If you are unable to use this file in its current format, please select the Contact Us link and we can modify it to make it more accessible to you.