Reconstructing and Forecasting the Water Balance of Lake Victoria

Abstract

Lake Victoria is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world, and serves as a critical resource to the region for energy production, the fishing industry, and agriculture. As one of the major sources of the Nile River, fluctuations in the water level of Lake Victoria have massive implications for the millions living in its basin and downstream. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the Lake Victoria water balance using a combination of historical in situ data records, satellite observations, and a novel statistical model that has previously been applied to the Laurentian Great Lakes (in North America). More specifically, we employ this statistical model to develop historical estimates of Lake Victoria precipitation, evaporation, outflow, and tributary inflow that close the water balance over consecutive historical periods.