More than words: Can tone of consumer product reviews help predict firms’ fundamentals?
dc.contributor.author | Jin, Shunyao (Cynthia) | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-12-04T20:27:35Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-11-04 15:27:33 | en |
dc.date.available | 2023-12-04T20:27:35Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-10 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Jin, Shunyao (Cynthia) (2023). "More than words: Can tone of consumer product reviews help predict firms’ fundamentals?." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 50(9-10): 1910-1942. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0306-686X | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1468-5957 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/191627 | |
dc.description.abstract | Although financial market participants are increasingly interested in the financial value of unstructured qualitative information regarding the prospects of a firm, empirical evidence remains sparse on the properties of qualitative content in consumer product reviews and their capital market implications. Using a broad sample of consumer reviews posted on Amazon.com, I examine whether the linguistic tone of aggregate consumer product reviews conveys information that is associated with firms’ sales, earnings, stock returns and risk. I find that aggregate review tone successfully predicts a firm’s forthcoming quarterly sales. Moderating analyses show that this predictability is stronger for firms operating in a highly competitive environment. I further find that review tone predicts a firm’s quarterly earnings surprises, abnormal stock returns and risk. A path analysis shows that the effect of review tone on stock prices is partially channeled through its effect on firms’ earnings. I finally find that negative review tone is more informative and useful than positive tone in predicting a firm’s fundamentals. Importantly, these results hold after controlling for other review characteristics, including review rating, review volumeand review dispersion. Overall, my findings highlight the importance of considering the tone of consumer reviews when evaluating a firm’s prospects and value. | |
dc.publisher | Anchor Books | |
dc.publisher | Wiley Periodicals, Inc. | |
dc.subject.other | path analysis | |
dc.subject.other | product market competition | |
dc.subject.other | stock returns | |
dc.subject.other | unstructured qualitative data | |
dc.subject.other | text mining | |
dc.subject.other | cash flows | |
dc.subject.other | consumer product reviews | |
dc.subject.other | idiosyncratic risk | |
dc.subject.other | machine learning | |
dc.subject.other | moderating analysis | |
dc.title | More than words: Can tone of consumer product reviews help predict firms’ fundamentals? | |
dc.type | Article | |
dc.rights.robots | IndexNoFollow | |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Finance | |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Business | |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed | |
dc.description.bitstreamurl | http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/191627/1/jbfa12680.pdf | |
dc.description.bitstreamurl | http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/191627/2/jbfa12680_am.pdf | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/jbfa.12680 | |
dc.identifier.source | Journal of Business Finance & Accounting | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Nguyen, H., Calantone, R., & Krishnan, R. ( 2020 ). Influence of social media emotional word of mouth on institutional investors’ decisions and firm value. Management Science, 66 ( 2 ), 887 – 910. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Li, X., Wang, S. S., & Wang, X. ( 2019 ). Trust and IPO underpricing. Journal of Corporate Finance, 56, 224 – 248. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Liu, Y. ( 2006 ). Word of mouth for movies: Its dynamics and impact on box office revenue. Journal of Marketing, 70 ( 3 ), 74 – 89. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Livnat, J., & Mendenhall, R. R. ( 2006 ). Comparing the post–earnings announcement drift for surprises calculated from analyst and time series forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 44 ( 1 ), 177 – 205. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Loh, R. K., & Warachka, M. ( 2012 ). Streaks in earnings surprises and the cross-section of stock returns. Management Science, 58 ( 7 ), 1305 – 1321. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Loughran, T., & McDonald, B. ( 2011 ). When is a liability not a liability? Textual analysis, dictionaries, and 10-Ks. The Journal of Finance, 66 ( 1 ), 35 – 65. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Loughran, T., & McDonald, B. ( 2014 ). Measuring readability in financial disclosures. The Journal of Finance, 69 ( 4 ), 1643 – 1671. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Luo, X., Zhang, J., & Duan, W. ( 2013 ). Social media and firm equity value. Information Systems Research, 24 ( 1 ), 146 – 163. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Luo, X., Homburg, C., & Wieseke, J. ( 2010 ). Customer satisfaction, analyst stock recommendations, and firm value. Journal of Marketing Research, 47 ( 6 ), 1041 – 1058. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Moe, W. W., & Trusov, M. ( 2011 ). The value of social dynamics in online product ratings forums. Journal of Marketing Research, 48 ( 3 ), 444 – 456. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Ni, J., Li, J., & McAuley, J. ( 2019 ). Justifying recommendations using distantly-labeled reviews and fine-grained aspects [Paper presentation]. Proceedings of the 2019 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and the 9th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing, Hong Kong, China. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | O’Sullivan, D., Hutchinson, M. C., & O’Connell, V. ( 2009 ). Empirical evidence of the stock market’s (mis) pricing of customer satisfaction. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 26 ( 2 ), 154 – 161. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Pevzner, M., Xie, F., & Xin, X. ( 2015 ). When firms talk, do investors listen? The role of trust in stock market reactions to corporate earnings announcements. Journal of Financial Economics, 117 ( 1 ), 190 – 223. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Pitaro, V. ( 2022 ). Survey Finds Widespread and Growing Use of Alternative Data. Hedge Fund Law Report. https://www.hflawreport.com/18722596/survey-finds-widespread-and-growing-use-of-alternative-data.thtml | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Raithel, S., Sarstedt, M., Scharf, S., & Schwaiger, M. ( 2012 ). On the value relevance of customer satisfaction. Multiple drivers and multiple markets. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 40 ( 4 ), 509 – 525. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Skinner, D. J., & Sloan, R. G. ( 2002 ). Earnings surprises, growth expectations, and stock returns or don’t let an earnings torpedo sink your portfolio. Review of Accounting Studies, 7 ( 2 ), 289 – 312. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Sobel, S. B. ( 1982 ). Difficulties experienced by women in prison. Psychology of Women Quarterly, 7 ( 2 ), 107 – 118. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Sorescu, A., & Sorescu, S. M. ( 2016 ). Customer satisfaction and long-term stock returns. Journal of Marketing, 80 ( 5 ), 110 – 115. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Surowiecki, J. ( 2005 ). The wisdom of crowds. Anchor Books. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Tang, V. W. ( 2018 ). Wisdom of crowds: Cross-sectional variation in the informativeness of third-party-generated product information on Twitter. Journal of Accounting Research, 56 ( 3 ), 989 – 1034. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Tetlock, P. C. ( 2007 ). Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market. The Journal of Finance, 62 ( 3 ), 1139 – 1168. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Tetlock, P. C., Saar-Tsechansky, M., & Macskassy, S. ( 2008 ). More than words: Quantifying language to measure firms’ fundamentals. The Journal of Finance, 63 ( 3 ), 1437 – 1467. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Tirunillai, S., & Tellis, G. J. ( 2012 ). Does chatter really matter? Dynamics of user-generated content and stock performance. Marketing Science, 31 ( 2 ), 198 – 215. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Tuli, K. R., & Bharadwaj, S. G. ( 2009 ). Customer satisfaction and stock returns risk. Journal of Marketing, 73 ( 6 ), 184 – 197. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Wright, S. ( 1934 ). The method of path coefficients. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 5 ( 3 ), 161 – 215. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Zhao, X., Lynch, J. G., & Chen, Q. ( 2010 ). Reconsidering Baron and Kenny: Myths and truths about mediation analysis. Journal of Consumer Research, 37 ( 2 ), 197 – 206. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Zhu, F., & Zhang, X. ( 2010 ). Impact of online consumer reviews on sales: The moderating role of product and consumer characteristics. Journal of Marketing, 74 ( 2 ), 133 – 148. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Aksoy, L., Cooil, B., Groening, C. J., Keiningham, T. L., & Yalçın, A. ( 2008 ). The long-term stock market valuation of customer satisfaction. Journal of Marketing, 72 ( 4 ), 105 – 122. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Antweiler, W., & Frank, M. Z. ( 2004 ). Is all that talk just noise? The information content of internet stock message boards. The Journal of Finance, 59 ( 3 ), 1259 – 1294. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Aspara, J. ( 2009 ). How do institutional actors in the financial market assess companies’ product design? The quasi-rational evaluative schemes. Knowledge, Technology & Policy, 22 ( 4 ), 241 – 258. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Barron, O. E., Byard, D., & Yu, Y. ( 2008 ). Earnings surprises that motivate analysts to reduce average forecast error. The Accounting Review, 83 ( 2 ), 303 – 325. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Bartov, E., Faurel, L., & Mohanram, P. S. ( 2018 ). Can Twitter help predict firm-level earnings and stock returns? The Accounting Review, 93 ( 3 ), 25 – 57. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Bell, D. R., Ledoit, O., & Wolf, M. ( 2014 ). A new portfolio formation approach to mispricing of marketing performance indicators: An application to customer satisfaction. Customer Needs and Solutions, 1 ( 4 ), 263 – 276. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Bodnaruk, A., Loughran, T., & McDonald, B. ( 2015 ). Using 10-K text to gauge financial constraints. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 50 ( 4 ), 623 – 646. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Carhart, M. M. ( 1997 ). On persistence in mutual fund performance. The Journal of Finance, 52 ( 1 ), 57 – 82. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Chen, C. X., Matsumura, E. M., Shin, J. Y., & Wu, S. Y. C. ( 2015 ). The effect of competition intensity and competition type on the use of customer satisfaction measures in executive annual bonus contracts. The Accounting Review, 90 ( 1 ), 229 – 263. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Chen, H., De, P., Hu, Y., & Hwang, B. H. ( 2014 ). Wisdom of crowds: The value of stock opinions transmitted through social media. Review of Financial Studies, 27 ( 5 ), 1367 – 1403. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Chevalier, J. A., & Mayzlin, D. ( 2006 ). The effect of word of mouth on sales: Online book reviews. Journal of Marketing Research, 43 ( 3 ), 345 – 354. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Chintagunta, P. K., Gopinath, S., & Venkataraman, S. ( 2010 ). The effects of online user reviews on movie box office performance: Accounting for sequential rollout and aggregation across local markets. Marketing Science, 29 ( 5 ), 944 – 957. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Das, S. R., & Chen, M. Y. ( 2007 ). Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment extraction from small talk on the web. Management Science, 53 ( 9 ), 1375 – 1388. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Davis, A. K., Ge, W., Matsumoto, D., & Zhang, J. L. ( 2015 ). The effect of manager-specific optimism on the tone of earnings conference calls. Review of Accounting Studies, 20 ( 2 ), 639 – 673. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | De Franco, G., Hope, O. K., Vyas, D., & Zhou, Y. ( 2015 ). Analyst report readability. Contemporary Accounting Research, 32 ( 1 ), 76 – 104. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Dellarocas, C., Zhang, X., & Awad, N. F. ( 2007 ). Exploring the value of online product reviews in forecasting sales: The case of motion pictures. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 21 ( 4 ), 23 – 45. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | El-Haj, M., Rayson, P., Walker, M., Young, S., & Simaki, V. ( 2019 ). In search of meaning: Lessons, resources and next steps for computational analysis of financial discourse. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 46 ( 3–4 ), 265 – 306. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Forman, C., Ghose, A., & Wiesenfeld, B. ( 2008 ). Examining the relationship between reviews and sales: The role of reviewer identity disclosure in electronic markets. Information Systems Research, 19 ( 3 ), 291 – 313. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Fornell, C., Mithas, S., Morgeson, III, F. V., & Krishnan, M. S. ( 2006 ). Customer satisfaction and stock prices: High returns, low risk. Journal of Marketing, 70 ( 1 ), 3 – 14. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Fornell, C., Morgeson, III, F. V., & Hult, G. T. M. ( 2016 ). Stock returns on customer satisfaction do beat the market: Gauging the effect of a marketing intangible. Journal of Marketing, 80 ( 5 ), 92 – 107. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Frankel, R., Mayew, W. J., & Sun, Y. ( 2010 ). Do pennies matter? Investor relations consequences of small negative earnings surprises. Review of Accounting Studies, 15 ( 1 ), 220 – 242. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Godes, D., & Mayzlin, D. ( 2004 ). Using online conversations to study word-of-mouth communication. Marketing Science, 23 ( 4 ), 545 – 560. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Guidolin, M., Hansen, E., & Pedio, M. ( 2019 ). Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach. Journal of Financial Markets, 45, 83 – 114. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Gupta, R. Y., Mudigonda, S. S., & Baruah, P. K. ( 2021 ). A comparative study of using various machine learning and deep learning-based fraud detection models for universal health coverage schemes. International Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology, 69 ( 3 ), 96 – 102. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Hoberg, G., & Lewis, C. ( 2017 ). Do fraudulent firms produce abnormal disclosure? Journal of Corporate Finance, 43, 58 – 85. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Hoberg, G., & Phillips, G. ( 2016 ). Text-based network industries and endogenous product differentiation. Journal of Political Economy, 124 ( 5 ), 1423 – 1465. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Hsieh, C. C., Hui, K. W., & Zhang, Y. ( 2016 ). Analyst report readability and stock returns. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 43 ( 1–2 ), 98 – 130. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Huang, J. ( 2018 ). The customer knows best: The investment value of consumer opinions. Journal of Financial Economics, 128 ( 1 ), 164 – 182. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Huang, X., Teoh, S. H., & Zhang, Y. ( 2014 ). Tone management. The Accounting Review, 89 ( 3 ), 1083 – 1113. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Ittner, C., Larcker, D., & Taylor, D. ( 2009 ). Commentary—The stock market’s pricing of customer satisfaction. Marketing Science, 28 ( 5 ), 826 – 835. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Jacobson, R., & Mizik, N. ( 2009 ). The financial markets and customer satisfaction: Reexamining possible financial market mispricing of customer satisfaction. Marketing Science, 28 ( 5 ), 810 – 819. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. ( 1979 ). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47 ( 2 ), 263 – 291. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Krishnan, R. ( 2005 ). The effect of changes in regulation and competition on firms’ demand for accounting information. The Accounting Review, 80 ( 1 ), 269 – 287. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Larcker, D. F., & Zakolyukina, A. A. ( 2012 ). Detecting deceptive discussions in conference calls. Journal of Accounting Research, 50 ( 2 ), 495 – 540. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Lehavy, R., Li, F., & Merkley, K. ( 2011 ). The effect of annual report readability on analyst following and the properties of their earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review, 86 ( 3 ), 1087 – 1115. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Lewis, C., & Young, S. ( 2019 ). Fad or future? Automated analysis of financial text and its implications for corporate reporting. Accounting and Business Research, 49 ( 5 ), 587 – 615. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Li, F. ( 2010 ). The information content of forward-looking statements in corporate filings—A naïve Bayesian machine learning approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 48 ( 5 ), 1049 – 1102. | |
dc.identifier.citedreference | Li, F., Lundholm, R., & Minnis, M. ( 2013 ). A measure of competition based on 10-K filings. Journal of Accounting Research, 51 ( 2 ), 399 – 436. | |
dc.working.doi | NO | en |
dc.owningcollname | Interdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed |
Files in this item
Remediation of Harmful Language
The University of Michigan Library aims to describe its collections in a way that respects the people and communities who create, use, and are represented in them. We encourage you to Contact Us anonymously if you encounter harmful or problematic language in catalog records or finding aids. More information about our policies and practices is available at Remediation of Harmful Language.
Accessibility
If you are unable to use this file in its current format, please select the Contact Us link and we can modify it to make it more accessible to you.